The 2012 NBA Draft: 6th & 11th picks, and some random 2nds.

[Fitz303]

Well you better get excited about him, he may be your starting SF next year...particularly if Batum leaves in FA, which is looking more likely every day...

Lol.. In what way is it looking more likely every day? Batum and managment have both said that they fully expect to sign Batum to a deal. Batum even going as far as to say that he was 99% sure. Nothing has changed since then

http://www.csnnw.com/pages/landingblaze ... eedID=5212

Add to that, last night on CSMN the speculation was that a team like TOR will offer a heavily front loaded deal to Batum... $10-$11-$12mil

Do you really think POR is going to match that?...and if Batum signs it right away as his agent says they will (even going so far as letting teams know that right now as well) and POR has to match such a contract then you can say goodbye to ALL that imaginary cap space....

So yeah, it is not looking good for Batum staying in POR right now...

Still think it is funny?

Yeah.. First, the Blazers will have a week to negotiate with whichever FAs they target. Most FAs who are going to get big money, have their decisions before they can even sign. Then, they still have 3 days after Batum signs, assuming he signs on the first day, to finish any signings of other FAs before matching Batum. And personally, I think they still sign Batum even if it's a 10 Million per contract

[cucad8]

I think a heavily front loaded deal makes it more likely we match, knowing we can pay up front now, and have a valluable declining deal as LT implications become worse. I hope we can sign people, and THEN someone front loads a big deal to him.

[Blaze01]

When has POR been able to sign a free agent directly out of the gate?

Not in the past few years they haven't.....

What you wrote is the best possible scenario...that POR will be able to negotiate and get guys to sign before they are forced to match Batum, who they will be overpaying for...

I have yet to see the best possible scenario for an offseason work for POR yet....

They absolutely have to get free agents signed before they decide on Batum, otherwise they will likely have to let him go or risk getting very little out of free agency....and they NEED a LOT of help...

[DeBlazerRiddem]

People are going to make big RFA offers to Gordon and Hibbert (probably Lopez as well) before they focus in on Batum. Spending 3 days waiting to hear back from Portland could be a death blow to another franchises off-season. The only team I see willing and able to take that risk would be Cleveland.


I also don't think Batum is going to get as much as some of the "worst case" scenarios have made out to be.. He will get paid enough, but the only way he gets more than $10 million handed to him next year is if it is on a declining contract, and I think a declining contract is very unlikely.


What we need to do is not hesitate this off-season.
0. First, in the draft we need to know who other teams like. Specifically, I would try and find out who Phoenix would like for Gortat and who Cleveland would like for Varejao. Also who Boston would want for Rondo and who Houston would want for Lowry. If their draft targets align with ours, that is a better reason to draft that player. I am not advocating a draft day trade, but this information will be useful later. My draft targets would be a ready back-up for PG (Marshall, Lillard) and C (Sullinger, Zeller). I would also look really hard at guys with a lot of potential at those positions (Teague and Leonard) because we desperately need more high-end talent at those positions. I would also seriously consider a back-up wing (Barnes, Lamb, Rivers, Miller, Ross, Wroten, Harkless) because there might be a significant talent difference at our picks.

1. I would see where Deron is on Portland. If he likes our mix of max capspace, Aldridge/Matthews/Batum/2 lottery picks, then go back and explore those trades with PHX and CLE. If we are not a front-runner, don't wait around, move onto the next target...
2. Throw a big contract at Dragic. Don't get into a bidding war, decide how much we can afford to pay him without limiting ourselves (around 10 million, maybe up to 12). This leaves enough room to get a mid level center like Asik/Hawes/Kaman while our draft pick develops. If he doesn't instantly accept or another team matches/overbids our offer, move on quickly..
3. Get Nash. Throw a legit 3 year contract at him (more than the Heat, Magic, Knicks could offer), try and get him to retire in Portland. Have him mentor the young PG. Get Hawes/Kaman/Asik as well
4. All else fails, we can start the rookies at PG and C and, if they develop, we potentially have a strong starting 5 by the end of the year, as well as another lotto draft pick and some 2013 capspace.

[Norm2953]

People are going to make big RFA offers to Gordon and Hibbert (probably Lopez as well) before they focus in on Batum. Spending 3 days waiting to hear back from Portland could be a death blow to another franchises off-season. The only team I see willing and able to take that risk would be Cleveland.


I also don't think Batum is going to get as much as some of the "worst case" scenarios have made out to be.. He will get paid enough, but the only way he gets more than $10 million handed to him next year is if it is on a declining contract, and I think a declining contract is very unlikely.


What we need to do is not hesitate this off-season.
0. First, in the draft we need to know who other teams like. Specifically, I would try and find out who Phoenix would like for Gortat and who Cleveland would like for Varejao. Also who Boston would want for Rondo and who Houston would want for Lowry. If their draft targets align with ours, that is a better reason to draft that player. I am not advocating a draft day trade, but this information will be useful later. My draft targets would be a ready back-up for PG (Marshall, Lillard) and C (Sullinger, Zeller). I would also look really hard at guys with a lot of potential at those positions (Teague and Leonard) because we desperately need more high-end talent at those positions. I would also seriously consider a back-up wing (Barnes, Lamb, Rivers, Miller, Ross, Wroten, Harkless) because there might be a significant talent difference at our picks.

1. I would see where Deron is on Portland. If he likes our mix of max capspace, Aldridge/Matthews/Batum/2 lottery picks, then go back and explore those trades with PHX and CLE. If we are not a front-runner, don't wait around, move onto the next target...
2. Throw a big contract at Dragic. Don't get into a bidding war, decide how much we can afford to pay him without limiting ourselves (around 10 million, maybe up to 12). This leaves enough room to get a mid level center like Asik/Hawes/Kaman while our draft pick develops. If he doesn't instantly accept or another team matches/overbids our offer, move on quickly..
3. Get Nash. Throw a legit 3 year contract at him (more than the Heat, Magic, Knicks could offer), try and get him to retire in Portland. Have him mentor the young PG. Get Hawes/Kaman/Asik as well
4. All else fails, we can start the rookies at PG and C and, if they develop, we potentially have a strong starting 5 by the end of the year, as well as another lotto draft pick and some 2013 capspace.

A lot of your points is going against what Chad Buchanon has been saying this off season for Portland management has been talking about their #1 need is a PG that fits with their younger core of players which leaves out Nash and probably Deron who will end up in either Dallas or Brooklyn. Dragic is a good fit but there will be stiff competition for his services and a team like Toronto which also needs a PG would likely overpay like they did with Hedo to get him. Being a Euro, Dragic would likely prefer to be In Toronto much like Hedo. We might be better off going after Lowry instead of Dragic in a trade. Offer Houston NJ's pick if it falls to 7-8 for Lowry.

Apparently the Blazers are really high on the two European players and perhaps using only one of their two lottery picks and dealing the second as part of a retooling instead of a rebuild.

Portland might be looking at a Darren Collison who is having a good series start against the Heat
and if Quick and Mike Rice are correct, seem to want two physical guys who will do the dirty work
and set the tone defensively for Portland management felt we were far too soft in letting guys get to the basket.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I don't know how I was going against what the Blazers have been saying... pretty much everything I mentioned was about acquiring a PG. I including Nash and Deron for completeness. I would actually really hate it if we signed Nash.


I even mentioned Lowry and Rondo through trades, although I am more opposed to those trades than others around here.


I personally think our best bet is Dragic. He fits our need at PG, we have the capspace to get him, and there are not many other free agents available to spend big on. If we have to overpay a little for Dragic, I would still do it. Address our other needs in the draft. I might not even draft a PG if I was really serious about Dragic.

Collison would be alright, but it depends what we have to give up. Matthews, ok. The #11 lottery pick, forget it. Despite conventional wisdom, I don't see the Pacers trading Collison as cheaply as I would want him.

Basically, I don't want to give up very much in a trade for a PG. I think we need to find a #1 scorer type at SG before we worry too much about PG. We are still too far away from competing that giving up too much on one piece is short-sighted. We Blazer fans are so wrapped up in filling the PG position.

[Blaze01]

Always better to get a guy for basically free (cap space) than having to trade away assets...of which POR at this time has far too few of to trade away...UNLESS that player you are acquiring is far above what you could get on the FA market....Lowry or Collison are not....A guy like Rondo or Wall are...but then again they are not really available...

Go for Dragic , he is an UFA, they should know BEFORE the 1st day of FA signing if he is going to come here or not...Same with D-Will, whom you have to inquire but is likely not coming here...If you know Dragic is out...well then go to Plan B and have Plan C on the backburner...My plan B would be to offer a big contract to George Hill...He is an RFA, so again you have to be prepared to offer him on Day 1 PLUS be looking at secondary forward\center targets...just in case someone does offer Batum on Day 1....INDY will wait 3 days but they also have a more important RFA to keep in Hibbert and I have a tough time believing that they would A) choose Hill over Hibbert or B) Choose to sign both for big money....

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah.. First, the Blazers will have a week to negotiate with whichever FAs they target. Most FAs who are going to get big money, have their decisions before they can even sign. Then, they still have 3 days after Batum signs, assuming he signs on the first day, to finish any signings of other FAs before matching Batum. And personally, I think they still sign Batum even if it's a 10 Million per contract

I don't know that that is true

I'm under the impression that as soon as Batum receives a formal offer sheet from another team, the first year salary of the new deal replaces Batum's cap-hold and is applied to Portland's cap

[DusterBuster]

Yeah.. First, the Blazers will have a week to negotiate with whichever FAs they target. Most FAs who are going to get big money, have their decisions before they can even sign. Then, they still have 3 days after Batum signs, assuming he signs on the first day, to finish any signings of other FAs before matching Batum. And personally, I think they still sign Batum even if it's a 10 Million per contract

I don't know that that is true

I'm under the impression that as soon as Batum receives a formal offer sheet from another team, the first year salary of the new deal replaces Batum's cap-hold and is applied to Portland's cap

This is how I understood it too.

[cucad8]

Yeah.. First, the Blazers will have a week to negotiate with whichever FAs they target. Most FAs who are going to get big money, have their decisions before they can even sign. Then, they still have 3 days after Batum signs, assuming he signs on the first day, to finish any signings of other FAs before matching Batum. And personally, I think they still sign Batum even if it's a 10 Million per contract

I don't know that that is true

I'm under the impression that as soon as Batum receives a formal offer sheet from another team, the first year salary of the new deal replaces Batum's cap-hold and is applied to Portland's cap

From what I read, that amount goes on the OFFERING team's salary cap, but not ours.

[lucky strike]

Blazersedge clarified this today. If Batum signs a deal with another team the first year of that deal doesn't replace the $5 million caphold until the Blazers match it. So that does give us the 3 days to work with as far as securing free agents before going over the cap with Nic's Bird Rights.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Yeah, a while back Chad was mentioning that after Nic is tendered an offer, we have up to 3 days before our cap-hold is replaced to make other moves.

[Norm2953]

I keep thinking chasing Dragic is going to end as badly as our pursuit of Hedo
for both are Euros and Toronto much like they did then has the cap space to
get him to play for them.

I'd rather we pursue Lowry and if we can get him for our second lottery pick,
that would be great.

[DusterBuster]

Hedo was in it for a cash grab, plain and simple. The Raptors were able to offer more money than the Blazers that summer because of Miles' contract going back on the Blazers books. I don't believe that Raptors will have more money to spend than the Blazers this year.

So I don't see Dragic being another Hedo situation.

[Wizenheimer]

I keep thinking chasing Dragic is going to end as badly as our pursuit of Hedo
for both are Euros and Toronto much like they did then has the cap space to
get him to play for them.

that didn't end badly...Toronto was stuck paying Hedo, not the Blazers

[d-train]

Remember, the Raptors dumped Shawn Marion so they could have cap space to pursue Hedo. It goes to show how hard it is to do the right thing in real time.

[deanwoof]

no matter how crappy hedo has played since that contract, i still think he would have been a good fit on the blazers assuming the dice rolled our way with Oden and Roy. Oden legit inside presence, Aldridge stretch 4, Hedo 6'10 ball handler/entry passer, Roy do it all finisher, and Blake or Matthews just sitting in the corner hitting open shots. That would have been damn near a perfect team. sigh.

Oh and since this is the lottery thread, let's end this post with 'Don't Draft Zeller'

[Norm2953]

I keep thinking chasing Dragic is going to end as badly as our pursuit of Hedo
for both are Euros and Toronto much like they did then has the cap space to
get him to play for them.

that didn't end badly...Toronto was stuck paying Hedo, not the Blazers

At that time before we found out he's grossly overpaid for what he was, our pursuit
and failure to get Hedo really depressed the local fan base. The fans still boo Hedo
when he comes to the Rose Garden and I can see Dragic making the same decision
being another European player.

I'd like to know if Houston would be willing to deal Lowry to Portland for the #11
pick. He would come at a decent salary and we might regret overpaying for
Dragic for we really don't know how he'll do in Portland for he's played with
solid PG"s in Nash and Lowry.

[GEE]

I would be pretty happy with Lowry: Maybe more than Dragic. Of course this all depends on if Dragic wants to remain in H-Town, and if they want to pay alot more for their PG. Personally I think Dragic ends up somewhere else, and Lowry stays in Houston.

[SinceClyde]

I know Dragic says he wants to stay in Houston, but he sorta has to say that. I think he'll get paid somewhere else and probably start. I'd be surprised if Dragic is still in Houston next season.