Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[VictorPage44]

See, now that some alternatives have actually been put on the table we can discuss them vs this trade, that's productive. Batum for 5 years at max, wow? Nene, Batum, Wall is just as flawed as this team, and capped out for five years instead of 2.

[Spence]

apparently we have a lot of "five tool posters" on this board.

That's what this board is here for though, the only thing I disagree with is extreme negativity. It has caused people to drastically underrate the guys we just got, and our squad for next season. They'll be here two seasons, so relax, this doesnt handicap us against the cap unless you wanted to overpay for Eric Gordon or Rudy Gay. Illyasova is another stretch 4. Danny Green isnt as good as Ariza, and he cant guard as many positions. If Ariza or Okafor play well, other teams will want them as expiring players.

Making no move at all would have been dumb. For now, we cant make any moves next offseason, but who says there arent more trades to come? For all the trades anyone can speculate on that would have been better than this one, I can speculate on trades that we can make next offseason now that we've made this trade.

One of the smartest things written in this thread.

[tontoz]

Please do list the facts not in evidence that we are assuming.

That's already been done, but I think it is fair to point out that others who agree with you have already acknowledged very incomplete information. They just think they're capable of making a final pronouncement on the deal without that information.

As noted previously, part of that incomplete information is how the team actually plays when next season begins. I'm interested in that information. I'm a bit surprised that so many seem completely uninterested in that information, though perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by that at all.

LOL such BS.

You ask us to provide exact details of possible trade scenarios, even though there is no way for us to know all of the possibilities, yet you can't even list the fact you claim we are assuming.

Let me pick my feet up, it's getting deep in here.

[WallToWall]

I'm wondering how many points, rebs, blocks, minutes our combo of Nene and Okafor will get at center. I can see these two playing 20+ minutes, depending on situation, at the center spot. This is good being that they are getting up in age. The reduced minutes will lessen wear and tear over the season. I can actually see the combination of these two players playing center get 25 pts, 12 rebs, and 3 blks. If this were one player, we would call that all-star numbers, and pay him $$$.

[Zonkerbl]

With $15 million of cap space, you should be able to secure a max-worthy player. I don't know if Okafor qualifies. Depends on his health. If he can't come back from his back injuries or re-injures it and is out for the season, we basically traded a one-year albatross contract for a two-year one.

[Ruzious]

See, now that some alternatives have actually been put on the table we can discuss them vs this trade, that's productive. Batum for 5 years at max, wow? Nene, Batum, Wall is just as flawed as this team, and capped out for five years instead of 2.

Trading for Gay or signing UFA Ilyasova have also been mentioned - along with other alternatives, and ya never know what other opportunities there were and would be over the next 2 years.

Is there anyone who would rather have Okafor and Ariza than Ilyasova on the Wizards?

[Ed Wood]

Well yes and no Spence, the alternatives thing still seems off to me because most of the kvetching is focused on the fact that both Okafor and Ariza are poor investments given their contracts and that for the marginal improvement over what the team already might have fielded doesn't rise to meet the additional investment that the trade required. Most of the specific alternatives that have been evoked thus far involve situations like the Hinrich trade in which taking on additional salary attached to a decent but hardly coveted player was palatable because there was additional incentive in the deal itself.

And while views of the deal will undoubtedly be revised over time as the on court product that results provides results to critique it's not totally unfair or even unwise to use the track record of those involved to make snap judgments. If Trevor Ariza, say, resuscitates his perimeter shot and manages to finish this season with a TS close to sixty and an above average PER the trade will look far better in retrospect, but you shouldn't really credit the decision for that performance because it isn't what could have been expected at the time. The converse is also true, if Okafor, I don't know, headbutts Kevin Seraphin into a coma and out of the game of basketball that would make the deal very bad in retrospect, but that's not a fair mark against the decision itself.

And I see very little way around the fact that based upon what should be expected of Okafor and Ariza both are extremely overpaid and not really likely to elevate the overall quality of the team to any great degree.

[nate33]

I'm wondering how many points, rebs, blocks, minutes our combo of Nene and Okafor will get at center. I can see these two playing 20+ minutes, depending on situation, at the center spot. This is good being that they are getting up in age. The reduced minutes will lessen wear and tear over the season. I can actually see the combination of these two players playing center get 25 pts, 12 rebs, and 3 blks. If this were one player, we would call that all-star numbers, and pay him $$$.

*Sigh*

There was no need to be concerned about wear and tear on Nene because we had Seraphin to share his spot. Nene plays 28 minutes at PF and C, Seraphin plays 28 minutes at C. And Booker and Vesely compete for the remaining 40 minutes at PF. Okafor was unnecessary. Sure, it's nice to have a good 5th big, but did we really need to pay $14M a year for him?

[verbal8]

I've taken a day to cool off and try to rationally justify this trade, but I just can't. It's so bad it's hard to get my mind around it.

The Nene trade was a move aimed at becoming a respectable team. In combination this move is doubling down on mediocrity.

The ONLY justification is that we turned deadweight salary into relatively competent (albeit absurdly overpriced) players. Instead of paying Rashard Lewis $13.7M to go away, we will pay Okafor and Ariza $42M to be average players. So at best, it's like paying $15M a year for two average players for 2 years. That's pretty bad but I suppose it could be worse.

What gives me a small amount of hope is the fact that Okafor is probably movable. Competent big men are so rare in this league that some teams are willing to pay a ton for them.

The problem is the going rate for a big man is about $7 to $8 million a year(Humphries and Kwame Brown deals) not $12 to $13 million. That might matter less next season when Okafor expires, but I think it keeps his trade value negative this season.

If Okafor can be traded for a shooter (preferably Kevin Martin) then it might not be such an unmitigated disaster. One can justify paying $15M a year for two average players if those players at least fill a need.

If Martin is available for Okafor and Crawford, wouldn't he have been available for Booker and cap space?

The biggest problem I have with this deal is that it doesn't fit "the plan". There definitely is no "pick and prospect". It doesn't even fit the plan to add vets(short deals in areas of need). You can argue that Ariza is a position of need, but a low usage poor shooting SF is not what the Wizards need.

[Spence]

Please do list the facts not in evidence that we are assuming.

That's already been done, but I think it is fair to point out that others who agree with you have already acknowledged very incomplete information. They just think they're capable of making a final pronouncement on the deal without that information.

As noted previously, part of that incomplete information is how the team actually plays when next season begins. I'm interested in that information. I'm a bit surprised that so many seem completely uninterested in that information, though perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by that at all.

LOL such BS.

You ask us to provide exact details of possible trade scenarios, even though there is no way for us to know all of the possibilities, yet you can't even list the fact you claim we are assuming.

Let me pick my feet up, it's getting deep in here.

Let me help you out here. Actually, you already answered your own question:

You ask us to provide exact details of possible trade scenarios, even though there is no way for us to know all of the possibilities

See what I did there? Actually, you did it. But in case you still don't get it, you're assuming the team won't improve much and you have previous little evidence to support that and you're assuming there were far superior deals to be made and you have no evidence for that either. If you can't provide that information, just admit it. Oh, pardon me. You already did. Thanks for that.

[willbcocks]

That's absolutely correct. I think you got my point perfectly, but I'm not sure you drew the correct conclusion from it. My point was that instead of automatically assuming much better deals were available, a bit of humility might have been in order. Assuming facts not in evidence is kryptonite to humility. One of the first things they teach you in law school. Expensive education, but at least it taught me that one important lesson.

I'm not sure what humility requires here. Is it accepting fate? Waiting to see what happens before offering our own judgments? Not calling other posters stupid?

I'll give number 3, we shouldn't be doing that, but few are. The name of this site is realgm, and most of the posting is dedicated to our own judgments about the direction the team should take, so I don't think humility requires us to stop being vocal -- or forcefull -- in our judgments of what the team did, and certainly not just accepting it's the new reality without voicing our opinions on it.

What makes this trade so bad is that not only is the opportunity cost significant, but the initial value is very poor or even negative. Subtracting Lewis's 13 million, you're still left paying these two guys something like 26-28 million over 2 years. For one average starter and one below average starter that is overpaying, but I'll be generous and assume neutral value.

This was, however, a negotiation, meaning that a competent GM would come out of a trade with both GMs receiving equal value. The hornets GM walked out of this trade doing cartwheels--is anyone going to dispute that NO got a fantastic deal?. Any competent GM would not come out of a trade with neutral value when the other GM got fantastic value, unless of course he was negotiating from a point of weakness. But there's nothing capwise that puts us in a position of weakness, and with the draft 8 days in the future, there was no urgency whatsoever.

The above is why our GM messed up even before considering the opportunity cost. I believe that cost is substantial because good things can happen (BOYDs or trades) if you're patient. It's happened to rebuilding teams a lot recently--Cleveland got Kyrie Irving, Chicago got Luol Deng, the Thunder got a lottery pick (and blew it), Miami got 2 superstars. I don't know what we'll get, and maybe it's only another Seraphin, or maybe it's just Jordan freaking Crawford, but the odds were it would be positive, and perhaps significantly so.

I didn't mention the point, which is significant to me, that we now have pushed Vesely and perhaps Seraphin down the depth chart. I'm making two assumptions here: that additional floor time/guaranteed minutes helps players develop and that Vesely is worth developing, but I believe both, and I'm scared they'll be negatively affected.

[tontoz]

[See what I did there? Actually, you did it. But in case you still don't get it, you're assuming the team won't improve much and you have previous little evidence to support that and you're assuming there were far superior deals to be made and you have no evidence for that either. If you can't provide that information, just admit it. Oh, pardon me. You already did. Thanks for that.

In other words you were just talking out of your ass. That is what i thought.

I expect the team to improve a lot next year but not because of this lousy deal. Okafor and Ariza have been in the league for years. Their track records are common knowlege.

Chris Singleton sucks but he shot better from 3 as a rookie than Ariza has done in any season of his career. 2nd year Seraphin had a better PER this season than Okafor.

Their records speak for themselves. It isn't like they are draft prospects. The Wizards are paying a lot of money for guys who aren't that good. That is not an assumption.

[Spence]

And I see very little way around the fact that based upon what should be expected of Okafor and Ariza both are extremely overpaid and not really likely to elevate the overall quality of the team to any great degree.

Yep, Okafor and Ariza are very overpaid. No doubt about that. I don't have a list of all the superb NBA players who are both underpaid and actually available in trades, but I suspect the list is microscopically small. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, though, which is one reason I asked for specific names.

Just to be clear, I don't regard overpaying Nicholas Batum and someone else for five years to be a superior alternative to overpaying Okafor and Ariza for two years.

Not sure what you mean by "not really likely to elevate the overall quality of the team to any great degree." I'd concur that we're not going to win a title with those guys. I doubt a deal to put this team in the NBA Finals was on the table. I also have my doubts that such a deal will be available...ever. I wish we could win a championship by just hanging on to cap space until someone offers us a superstar or two, but I just don't see it happening. I acknowledge it is possible, but unlike many here, it seems, I'm not prepared to assume it was inevitable.

[barelyawake]

I'm no capologist, and I don't play one on tv, and I didn't stay at a hotel last night, but does not this allow us to sign guys for the MLE while still maintaining the amount of expiring contracts? Meaning we can keep building AND make the big trade down the road? Which means that in two years, when people may wish to come here (because we have been in the playoffs), we haven't wasted said amount on guys like Batum and can actually shoot for better? And by then, Serphin will have had a bunch of vet help to build his game. And hopefully he, our pick, and Wall will have playoff experience to boot (on a team built around defense).

I believe we are witnessing a crossroads of vices of this board:
A) the chronic overvaluing of our young players
B) the terminal undervaluing of vet influence on younger players.
C) Moneyballitis

The trade is bad because we didn't get the pick. But, it's only marginally bad. And it's bad because it means we are taking Beal. Beal is great and all, but not for a team who needs to take big risks.

We need another trade soon. Wow me EG. PS the anger is good. Hold these f'ers in charge accountable. Shoulda happened years ago. Shoulda been riots by now.

[fishercob]

The very simple reason to not like this trade comes down to two words: opportunity cost.



Both closg00 and hands11 made mention of the fact that this trade is somehow reflective of Ted being cheap. This is simply preposterous.He agreed to pay and additional $30M and be at or above the salary cap for the next two seasons. Foolish? Maybe. Cheap? Absolutely not.

Here is actually what was posted.

You know-what fella's? It's because Ted/Ernie would rather have Okafor and Ariza rather than pay Shard to walk. Blatche isn't going anywhere either.

I figured Ted was going to try to do something with Lewis's contract. I wasn't a fan of the idea. I would have rather he just bought him out instead of using the cap space this way.

But am I shocked. Nope. Ted is so far proving to be a little bit of a cheapo.

As of right now. Not liking this one bit. I liked the team I composed better with just using the picks, adding Kirk and paying Lewis to leave.

Hands made the cheap comment.

You intimated the same thing:

Why can't trade supporters just admit that the deal was done so-that Ted would-not have to pay-out for Shard w/o getting something,that's the bottom-line here, everything else is just smoke and mirrors and PR spin. The trade was not done with the long-term interest of the team in-mind. I still have a glimmer of hope that something is going to happen on draft-night to make more basketball sense for the organization.

The clear intimation here is that Ted's motives are financial.

[fishercob]

I'm no capologist, and I don't play one on tv, and I didn't stay at a hotel last night, but does not this allow us to sign guys for the MLE while still maintaining the amount of expiring contracts? Meaning we can keep building AND make the big trade down the road? Which means that in two years, when people may wish to come here (because we have been in the playoffs), we haven't wasted said amount on guys like Batum and can actually shoot for better? And by then, Serphin will have had a bunch of vet help to build his game. And hopefully he, our pick, and Wall will have playoff experience to boot (on a team built around defense).

I believe we are witnessing a crossroads of vices of this board:
A) the chronic overvaluing of our young players
B) the terminal undervaluing of vet influence on younger players.
C) Moneyballitis

The trade is bad because we didn't get the pick. But, it's only marginally bad. And it's bad because it means we are taking Beal. Beal is great and all, but not for a team who needs to take big risks.

We need another trade soon. Wow me EG.

Your premise may not be completely without merit. They may be thinking that in 18 months from now they'll trade Beal + Veseley + first rounder + Oke's expiring for some unnamed star. I dunno. Seems far-fetched, but hey, whatever.

[willbcocks]

If I were brought in as GM, I would look to move Nene for the best pick or young player could get towards the end of this season.

It would essentially be BOYDing ourselves--rather than trading Okafor because he's not worth his contract, we would be keeping him and moving the better player for positive value. That's my solution to the frontcourt logjam.

[Spence]

The above is why our GM messed up even before considering the opportunity cost. I believe that cost is substantial because good things can happen (BOYDs or trades) if you're patient. It's happened to rebuilding teams a lot recently--Cleveland got Kyrie Irving, Chicago got Luol Deng, the Thunder got a lottery pick (and blew it), Miami got 2 superstars. I don't know what we'll get, and maybe it's only another Seraphin, or maybe it's just Jordan freaking Crawford, but the odds were it would be positive, and perhaps significantly so.

You've listed the good things that can happen when you hang on to cap space and make a trade. I'm sure you will concede that the deals you mentioned represent a tiny minority of such deals. Also, I'm sure you will recognize there are difference between Miami [they had Dwyane Wade, a very desirable climate, no state income tax] that DC lacks. The Wizards will never be able to swing the deals LA, Miami and NY make. Players seem automatically interested in playing in those cities, even when the teams in those cities are not terribly good.

I didn't mention the point, which is significant to me, that we now have pushed Vesely and perhaps Seraphin down the depth chart. I'm making two assumptions here: that additional floor time/guaranteed minutes helps players develop and that Vesely is worth developing, but I believe both, and I'm scared they'll be negatively affected.

Now, that's a legitimate objection. Some assumptions are safe and some are not and additional playing time helping players develop is a safe assumption. Not all assumptions are created equal.

[7-Day Dray]

I'm going to laugh so hard when we draft MKG. We will have the worst shooting starting lineup in NBA history with Wall, Ariza and MKG on the perimeter.

Another thing that's wrong with the trade -- it makes draft day even MORE stressful.

Before this trade, we could have taken Beal, Robinson or MKG and I would have been moderately happy and really looking forward to watching them in action. Now? It's Beal or bust.

Charlotte takes Beal and we're screwed.
We take MKG and our offense crumbles.
We take Robinson and the frontcourt log-jam becomes even worse.

It's only Beal or Bust if you want this clusterflutch to work in the short term. I don't, I want it to be such a disaster that the moron gets drummed out yesterday. You can't pull off the stupidest pre-draft trade in any sport, twice, in three years and not pay a price for it. I don't care if we duplicate talent, or depth, i just want the very best player we can get at 3 in this draft, and don't give a damn what position he plays, Drummond, MKG, Beal, I don't care, take the best one, and dont force the issue because you just made another all world dumb as hell trade, and want to stick to your guns. Hell no, take MKG if he's the best player, Drummond if he is, or Beal, but take the player you think is best period, this team is a colossal freaking joke, run by a fool and his idiot messenger boy (people seem to think this was done because Ted is cheap and didnt want to pay Lewis to leave, wrong, i think Ted gave it away when he whined, "I don't want to be back here next year." at the lottery. Sorry buddy, when you suck, you go to the lottery, and we aint done sucking. What Ted's done, is superficially given the squad a chance to be sub par instead of merde, but what he's really done, is long term plunged us into Milwaukee buck land, to the wonderful fairy tale wold of 35-42 win seasons, 7th to 11th place finishes in the East and no hope for the future, EVER. Because he didnt want to go back to the lottery. Great job idiot, now can you pick up the phone and see if you can get GMGM to botch things worse than they already are with Kuznetsov signing a 2 year extension?

Man we've got terrile ownership in D.C., freaking terrible, across the board.

+1 We need to take the risk in the draft now. We can't pick the safe player.

[Spence]

In other words you were just talking out of your ass. That is what i thought.

I expect the team to improve a lot next year but not because of this lousy deal. Okafor and Ariza have been in the league for years. Their track records are common knowlege.

Chris Singleton sucks but he shot better from 3 as a rookie than Ariza has done in any season of his career. 2nd year Seraphin had a better PER this season than Okafor.

Their records speak for themselves. It isn't like they are draft prospects. The Wizards are paying a lot of money for guys who aren't that good. That is not an assumption.

Okay, I think we're done here because I'm fairly certain I can debate this trade with people who are not abusive twerps. If you prefer to regard my withdrawal as a surrender, that's fine by me.