Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[Higga]

Yeah I'm with Raf. When we were one and done every year I admit I would always complain about being sick of it and would rather suck to rebuild with high lotto picks. Well now I'm sick of losing. I at least want to play some meaningful games late in the year. And I think experiencing the playoffs would be a good thing for Wall. If we don't try to be more competitive, he's going to be unhappy and won't develop to his full potential.

[willbcocks]

Ariza + Okafor gets us 15-20 wins? (That's assuming we would have chewed bubble gum and scratched our asses during free agency).

Um, did Shard hook them up with steroids on his way out?

[Spence]

That's hard to dispute. However much or little immediate sense the deal makes it does have the saving grace (which seems to be a fairly consistent theme under the Leonsis regime) of having a fairly short half life and of inflicting no real long term damage.

This is why I find the apocalyptic reaction to the trade rather puzzling. I think there is a fairly good chance I will look at this deal as a failure in a year or two. But I won't regard it as a catastrophe because the deals are short and we're not saddled with Amare Stoudemire's contract until six weeks before the End of Days. The deal might fail, but it isn't a franchise-crusher unless Ariza goes nuts and starts waving around a gun in the locker room and... Uh, I won't go down that road. That's why I think the deal, if not a good one, is a defensible risk because the downside isn't horrible and there is some upside. I do think Okafor is a pretty good player, not a chump, and Ariza can be very helpful if Randy Wittman can keep him from playing hero-ball on offense. [If Wittman can't do that, they'll have to bench Ariza and that would be a black mark against the deal.]

Also between Okafor, Nene, Seraphin and Vesely we have to have one of the upper echelon nice guy frontcourts in the league, I imagine that those team building field trips will continue to be popular. And Andray will likely be even more thoroughly embarrassed to take his shirt off in the locker room, which is a plus.

A line worthy of Cramer.

[tontoz]

If we had kept the same team, and only made minor changes and added Beal, we probably wouldn't win 25 games next year.

Huh? They just won 20 in a 66 game season with Nene playing only 11 games. If they won at the same rate, not improving at all, they would win 25 in an 82 game season.

Wow

[payitforward]

This thread is why I love the board. It's a wondrous combination of serious thought and primeval fury. Even the belligerent pomposity is welcome because it is so entertaining. I suspect it works a lot better on the Internet than in person, though.

What are you talking about, you dolt? I have found belligerant pomposity to work quite admirably well in person!

...Speaking of which -- I think the phrase describes Ernie's attitude pretty well whenever he's asked a potentially challenging question.

[Ed Wood]

I don't disagree with that either, I've never cared for the "trying to be really terrible" plan. That in and of itself isn't vindication for any move that might result in some short term benefits and I'm concerned that I feel that this trade did very little to address the team's most significant barrier to being competitive, its miserable offense, but I am not terribly sad to bid farewell to the days of trying to be balls and feeling very accomplished to have managed to lose more than everybody else. The franchise has trouble enough when it's trying to be good.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm now convinced this was a GREAT trade. The Wizards got SOMEONE who will be able to put on the uniform and play games for them next season. And maybe the season after that too! Hey, TWO SOMEONES, actually, which makes this trade double extra special awesome! And it's only going to consume what was left of the team's cap space for the next two offseasons?! Triple extra special awesomeness!

I'm psyched. I'm stoked. I'm hyped. The Wiz now have SOMEONE(S).

No other deal was possible now or in the future. No other deal would have emerged. No team would have paid the Wizards for the use of their cap space. Not possible.

Can't wait until Blatche comes back next year playing to his full potential. That will be quadruple extra special awesome!

Sucks that Ernie was extended for only two more years. Ted should give him a lifetime deal immediately. Then the Wiz would be quintuple extra special awesome forever! Just like they've been throughout Ernie's tenure at GM.

All the cap hell would have been avoided if Ernie had known Gilbert's knee wasn't going to be right. If he had considered the impropriety of an injured player asking for a new long term deal; he could have refused and let Gilbert walk. Back then I felt like maybe one of 5 people who questioned EG. That was 5 years ago, and for the $111M the Wizards awarded Gilbert (and the $56M given Jamison) the Wizards have gone:

19-63
26-56
23-59
20-46

Just when you thought EG had done something smart in acquiring Lewis and shaving a year off of cap hell by exercising his buyout, Ernie strikes again. Who needs cap room? Acquiring Okafor who is 30 and coming off of an injury year, and who has played in 6 playoff games in 8 seasons is just like something EG would do. That is a lot to pay for a locker room presence and a name that is recognized.

Must be nice to be rewarded with job security when you make moves like that.

[Spence]

This thread is why I love the board. It's a wondrous combination of serious thought and primeval fury. Even the belligerent pomposity is welcome because it is so entertaining. I suspect it works a lot better on the Internet than in person, though.

What are you talking about, you dolt? I have found belligerant pomposity to work quite admirably well in person!

...Speaking of which -- I think the phrase describes Ernie's attitude pretty well whenever he's asked a potentially challenging question.

I refuse to be put in the position of defending Ernie Grunfeld! If I wanted to watch my soul wither I'd have accepted one of those offers to lawyer for health insurance companies.

[Spence]

I'm concerned that I feel that this trade did very little to address the team's most significant barrier to being competitive, its miserable offense

Yeah, I don't see how the deal helps the offense. It should improve defense and rebounding, but offensively, we'll need someone like Beal to be what he's supposed to be and guys like Wall and Vesely have to stop building houses with their shooting opportunities.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I've taken a day to cool off and try to rationally justify this trade, but I just can't. It's so bad it's hard to get my mind around it.

The ONLY justification is that we turned deadweight salary into relatively competent (albeit absurdly overpriced) players. Instead of paying Rashard Lewis $13.7M to go away, we will pay Okafor and Ariza $42M to be average players. So at best, it's like paying $15M a year for two average players for 2 years. That's pretty bad but I suppose it could be worse.

The real problem is that the players, Okafor in particular, aren't any better than what we've already got at the position. We are paying $15M a year for two average players who don't add anything.

What gives me a small amount of hope is the fact that Okafor is probably movable. Competent big men are so rare in this league that some teams are willing to pay a ton for them. If Okafor can be traded for a shooter (preferably Kevin Martin) then it might not be such an unmitigated disaster. One can justify paying $15M a year for two average players if those players at least fill a need.

If we traded Okafor plus Crawford for Kevin Martin, and drafted Beal, our lineup would look like this:

PG Wall/Mack
SG Martin/Beal
SF Ariza/Crowder/Singleton
PF Booker/Vesely/Singleton
C Nene/Seraphin

That's a pretty good team.

Nate: You're probably not understanding the importance of acquiring players who will be contractually obligated to play for the Wizards for the next two seasons. It's huge because there's no guarantee that a player NOT contractually obligated to play for the Wizards would ever want to play for the Wizards. Why, the mere thought of such a thing is laughable. HA-HA-HA. See? I just laughed at the thought myself. No one could be enticed to play for a team like the Wizards for a piddling thing like a Brinks truck filled with money. Much better to acquire guys with existing contracts. Then they can be forced to play for the Wizards.

Looked at properly, this is a genius move.

Do you remember the Stephen King movie "Misery"? In that movie Kathy Bates plays author James Caan's crazy "number one fan". After rescuing him from a crash she figures the only way she can keep him there is to "hobble" him. She literally breaks his ankles with a sledgehammer after drugging him. That way he can't go anywhere.

The Wizards approach of acquiring veterans is sort of like that. EG and Ted know no decent veteran wants to play in DC so they figuratively use a sledgehammer to force them to stay.

[closg00]

Pretty level headed analysis here: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/6/21/3 ... ariza-hook

I give the deal a C, FYI. It doesn't push us any closer to a title (and quite frankly only 5 teams in the league are legit contenders, everyone else is just fighting for 2nd best) but I wouldn't be surprised if we are in the hunt for a playoff spot.We're the 2nd worse team in the league, haven't been to the playoffs in 4 years, and all of a sudden it's a bad thing to try and compete for the 7th or 8th spot. I'd take that over a 18 win season.

Great!!! Then Okafor and Ariza can traded like Shard, as were Butler and Haywood, Young, and on and on. By all means, keep the Grunfeld merry-go-round going as-long as possible. We were for building through the draft until we were against it. "We've always have been at-war with Eastasia"

[Rafael122]

If we had kept the same team, and only made minor changes and added Beal, we probably wouldn't win 25 games next year.

Huh? They just won 20 in a 66 game season with Nene playing only 11 games. If they won at the same rate, not improving at all, they would win 25 in an 82 game season.

Wow

And they won how many last year? And the year before that. This team is 88-224 in the last 4 years. Let that sink in, and then come back and tell me they were going to win more than 25 games, because I doubt it would have happened. And when I say 40-45 wins, I'm not saying Ariza/Okafor alone would propel them to 15 more wins, but the improvements from other players as well. Fact, this team is better. Tell me I'm wrong.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ariza sucks. Okafor can rebound but is a big downgrade offensively from Nene/Seraphin. He has seen his best days but will be taking time away from young guys who can actually get better.

Doing nothing is always better than doing a bad deal. Bad deals are what keep bad teams bad.

This is so to the point, tontoz.

The way I see this deal today is Ariza needs to be as good as he was the season he played heavy minutes on the Lakers' first championship team, or this deal is a bust.

[verbal8]

That's why I think the deal, if not a good one, is a defensible risk because the downside isn't horrible and there is some upside. I do think Okafor is a pretty good player, not a chump, and Ariza can be very helpful if Randy Wittman can keep him from playing hero-ball on offense.

I don't see a lot of upside. Both players have player options next year. It is quite possible that Ariza could be competent enough to push the Wizards into the dreaded 30 to 35(not on his own) win range and then opt out of his deal.

Okafor there is a lot less "risk" of him outperforming his contract, but there is a significant question about how much of an upgrade he is over Nene and Seraphin. And he is quite clearly taking minutes away from Booker and Vesely.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The thing I really don't get about Hollinger's article is why he thinks having tons of cap space is a guarantor of great success. Who has it ever worked for besides the Heat? How happy is Anthony Davis going to be having cap space for teammates? For someone who's supposedly all about numbers, Hollinger seems awfully biased and emotional a lot of the time.

I noted that he called Randy Wittman "a bad coach." I wonder why he thinks that. He doesn't explain. Perhaps he believes not famous equals not good. Can't tell because he doesn't explain himself.

Wittman has had terrible rosters, always. I don't think he's a bad coach at all. If Hollinger just goes by wins and losses, it doesn't look good at all for Wittman. If you go by six wins in a row to close the season, and a lot better win percentage than Saunders with many of the same players, it gives some hope for Wittman.

I think Hollinger is a fan of this team, too, and he is conditioned like myself and most to expect the worst when it come to the Washington Wizards.

[tontoz]

"And when I say 40-45 wins, I'm not saying Ariza/Okafor alone would propel them to 15 more wins, but the improvements from other players as well. "

Actually that is exactly what you are saying. You said without this deal they wouldn't win 25 and with this deal they can win 40-45.

They won 20 games last year which is a 25 win pace in an 82 game season. So if you say they wouldn't win 25 games without this deal you are saying they would actually be worse next year.

[DCZards]

I was "all in" in Ted's vision for rebuilding the team....build through the draft and maintain financial flexibility so we can add key pieces when we were ready to make a move for contender status. It seems like he has moved off this plan or at least delayed it for another 2 years. While it is true that the Wizards might not have found any deals in the next two years to add better players, Okafor and Ariza aren't good enough for me to like scrapping that dream. In other words, ultimately I think I would have been more happy to have a worse record over the next 2 years with the HOPE that we could add "key" pieces for our future during this time period, than add 2 players that will not be "key" pieces for our future in order to barely make the playoffs (while at the same time reducing our chances over the next 2 years in finding our "key" pieces).

I don't believe Ted sees this as straying from or delaying his rebuild plans. In fact, he probably sees it as advancing those plans. The idea of having a worse record over the next 2 years with the HOPE (and hope is the key word) of adding pieces along the way may appeal to you, but I think Ted (and most of the Zards fanbase) are tired of losing. I think the Zards ownership believes, and I do as well, think that you can rebuild the team over the next 2-3 years while winning 40 or so games (and making the playoffs), rather than 25 games.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Spence: Why don't we just trade 4 future picks and this year's #3 for Amare?

It's impossible to provide precise details of who will be available and where we will be picking, but unless we have exact details, we couldn't possibly assume something better than Amare, who we know will at least score 15 points and only costs 20 million per year.

You are taking this argument about predicting the future to unreasonable extremes. It is not unreasonable to suppose that the Wizards could have landed significantly better value over the next two years in other trades--in fact I don't think anyone is even disputing that. I think those who are defending the trade tend to be saying, well, the value's not great, but it improves the team for two years, which will help our picks develop, and we can then sign new guys to replace these ones.

Why are you harping on this?

Not quite. Contracts being left out, the value is good. It's more like the trade improves the team this year, makes it more competitive and gives the Wizards a real chance at positioning themselves to make the playoffs this season and down the road. This upcoming season's as good as any season to begin at taking that next step. And no I don't think the addition of Ariza and Okafor helps Vesely develop.

The Wizards need to trade Booker or Vesely or Seraphin. One of them needs to be traded, most likely Booker.

Seeing this post made me think Vesely is a tradeable commodity. I know EG just drafted him, and I like him, but he's not going to play at all now with this roster.

[tontoz]

I was "all in" in Ted's vision for rebuilding the team....build through the draft and maintain financial flexibility so we can add key pieces when we were ready to make a move for contender status. It seems like he has moved off this plan or at least delayed it for another 2 years. While it is true that the Wizards might not have found any deals in the next two years to add better players, Okafor and Ariza aren't good enough for me to like scrapping that dream. In other words, ultimately I think I would have been more happy to have a worse record over the next 2 years with the HOPE that we could add "key" pieces for our future during this time period, than add 2 players that will not be "key" pieces for our future in order to barely make the playoffs (while at the same time reducing our chances over the next 2 years in finding our "key" pieces).

I don't believe that Ted sees this as straying from or delaying his rebuild plans. In fact, probably sees it as advancing those plans. The idea of having a worse record over the next 2 years with the HOPE (and hope is the key word) of adding key pieces along the way may appeal to you, but I think Ted (and most of the Zards fanbase) are weary of losing. I think the Zards ownership believes, and I do as well, that you can still rebuild the team over the next 2-3 years while winning 40 or so games (and making the playoffs), rather than 25 games.

How is making this deal going to lead to a 15 game improvement?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ah yes well then, stands to reason that the only fair criticism of anything must be delayed until after every detail of alternative and quantifiably superior options to the decision has been vetted to within an inch of its anthropomorphic life.

I'll address that point when I see fair criticism of the deal. So far it's pretty much just white hot anger and unsupported assertions that much better deals would have been available if only the front office were run by people on this board.

This is an unreasonable standard Spence, as always we're operating with imperfect information and we're allowed to make judgments within those limits if we're using what we have sensibly.

You're allowed to do pretty much anything you want. The issue is what value your judgment is if you're making blanket assertions based on grotesquely incomplete information.

I guess one of the points I'm trying to make is that most of the critics of this deal -- though not all -- have no interest in seeing this team actually play. They've already decided the deal is terrible because the team won't improve enough and we could have had Dwight Howard or someone like that if we'd only just waited for the offer to come. Maybe that's correct, but I just don't see the evidence for it.

I'm keen to see the team play. I believe transactions should ultimately be judged by the product performance.

Spence, I am a critic of the deal but I posted a ways back about Ariza on a Laker championship team and Okafor at UConn when they won the NCAAs. I posted that Ariza has shot 44% from three in over 40 playoff games played. I noted that this deal can work.

The reason I am not excited about it is because I wanted to see some other guys get the chance to grow and improve. I wanted other guys to play. I wanted to see what Seraphin would look like with 30 minutes a game. He and Nene seemed like a good duo. I believe drafting Fab Melo would give just as good or better defense than Okafor has left, and do so on a rookie deal. Spence, one of the SPECIFIC ideas that many have put out is the Wizards could have bid high to try to get Batum from Portland. He has been Kevin Seraphin's teammate and they are great friends. Other names sound MUCH MORE APPEALING: Ryan Anderson and Ersan Ilyasova are the kind of young guys who will be good for a long time. If the Wizards wanted to add some talent, I was thinking guys with offense and rebounding would be the focus. Also, I think James Singleton is a real good player right now. I would rather see him play at PF than Okafor. I think Cartier Martin deserved some minutes at SF.

I am really discouraged by the two players' salaries and what the implications are: Okafor will start. GMs put pressure on their coaching staff when they bring in veterans who might not be as good as the players on hand. I was worried when Nene was acquired. The thing is Booker went out injured and that is what gave minutes for Seraphin and Vesely. With these additions, there are not sufficient minutes for these players. At PF and C there are only 96 minutes to split between Nene, Okafor, Booker, Seraphin, and Vesely. Before even seeing this pan out Spence, I don't like it.

The deal might work out. I have no crystal ball. Just seems like the better thing would have been no deal. Now teams know Thomas Robinson isn't on the Wizards radar. Neither is Drummond. Neither is MKG, because Ariza is a SF. This deal says Beal is the pick. Ernie is like a card player who tips his hand for all to see.