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Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#901 » by TGW » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:40 pm

montestewart wrote:exactly what is the side-by-side comparison of Okafor's and Nene's health issues? They seem pretty comparable there to me.

Those that really hated the Nene trade (Dat2U, Nivek, others) would seem to really hate this trade, not only because it seems like more of the same, but because it compounds the problems they predicted could result from trading for such players (age, injuries, contracts) while doing a big favor for another team in the process.


Personally, I liked the Nene trade, because it brought in a tough minded, PRODUCTIVE veteran, even though he's overpaid.

Ariza and Okafor are not productive--again, both are below average players at their current position--and at this point in their careers, are better suited to be backups in this league. The Wizards are going to pay them like starters and treat them as starters, although they aren't starter quality players.

It's the same ol' ish with this FO. They overvalue mediocrity for some strange reason. That's why you have trades like this one, and trades like #5 for Mike Miller and Foye. I would like for them to value actual production, and not reputation.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#902 » by Severn Hoos » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:42 pm

I'm not a fan of this trade mostly because of the limited cap flexibility in the future years, but the criticism of Okafor and Ariza is kind of ridiculous, IMO. Take Okafor - he was "injured" this past year, but we also know that the Hornets had every reason to shut him down rather than play him (and risk aggravating the injury) when the post-trade goal for them was to acquire ping pong balls. So I don't put much worry into the fact that he played 27 (out of 66) games. And when he did play, in a "down year", he had a PER of 15.1, shot 53% from the floor, and averaged 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. If he is indeed healthy (and I do understand the chronic back issue, that's obviously a concern), there's no reason to think those numbers wouldn't improve this coming season.

Then, when you look at 2010-11 - when the Hornets were a playoff team, so there's no "good stats on a bad team" syndrome going on here - he played 72 games, had a PER of 16.0, shot 57% from the floor, and averaged 11 rebounds per 36, with a DReb% of 25%. And the three seasons before that, he played all 82 games in each season, never had a PER below 16.5, never shot below 55%, and his Reb% consistently at 18%, with a DReb% at 25% or better.

Again - if he is healthy and can approximate those numbers, he is clearly much, much better than "average." And certainly not "below average."

And here's the other thing. Okafor has shown the ability to be a great rebounder, particularly on the defensive boards. Why is he able to do that? Is it physical attributes, some 6th sense, or what? Well, a lot of it has to come from technique and using his strength and leverage to keep his man off the glass. In other words, things that can be taught. Now, Keveen has many of the same physical attributes that Emeka has. Maybe if he spends 2 years watching and learning, he'll pick up defensive rebounding from Okafor the way he seems to have responded to Nene (who, frankly, is not a great rebounder). One can hope, anyway.

And for Ariza - I think he has many similar physical attributes as Singleton. (Don't forget, however "stiff" Singleton looked as a rookie, he had outstanding scores at the pre-draft combine.) But what Ariza has that CSing doesn't is experience. Craftiness. Knowing the tricks of the trade. Again, if Chris can watch and learn for 2 years, maybe he comes out of it with a defensive game approximating Ariza's. And as it has been pointed out many times, he is already a better 3-point shooter than Ariza, he may end up as an ideal fit in the coveted 3-and-D role.

So - I still wouldn't have made the trade because I hate that our flexibility in FA is pretty much gone now. And I think the price that was paid in the hope of secondary benefits to guys like Seraphin and Singleton was way too high. But I do believe the trade was made mostly to improve those guys, not to get Okafor & Ariza for their own sake. And in that, I can kind of understand it.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#903 » by tontoz » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:45 pm

jivelikenice wrote:
tontoz wrote:
veji1 wrote:Can't you just enjoy the ride ? this team will be competitive. !



First of all it is hard to enjoy the ride when other cars have been passing you for years. Secondly there is every reason to believe this team would have been competitive without adding two badly overpaid, averge/below average players.


About your second point; how much of an improvement did you expect from the status quo? How many wins would you have expected if we kept everythign as-is and simply added Beal and possibly a sub MLE vet?



Status quo? How many of these players were here before Wall was drafted? It isn't like the FO has been sitting on their hands the last two years.

As i an others have said before this deal was announced they were probably a fringe playoff team. They won at a 25 win pace this year even though

-Wall was a train wreck to start the year.
-Young was trying to chuck his way to a big deal
-Nene played only 11 games
-McGee was McGee
-Blatche was Blatche
-Flip was the coach to start the year
-Vesely was garbage the first half of the year and improved a lot in the second half
-Seraphin rarely played early in the year, improving greatly when given time

(i am sure i am missing some issues)

When you consider all that and the possibility of adding a quality wing through the draft and another competent one through free agency there is every reason to believe this team would be greatly improved without adding to mediocre, badly overpaid vets.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#904 » by MDStar » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:48 pm

Nene and Wall are clearly our best two players. In my opinion the next group of players would include Seraphin, Okafor, Ariza and Booker. Then rounding out the squad is Vesley, Crawford and Singleton. Add in Beal or MKG in that 2nd group and we have the current top 9 players on next years Wizards roster. I bring this up because while like 90% of the board I don't love this trade as it does ruin of financial flexibility for the next 2 years. However, when I look at it from a pure "Wizards roster, I want to win more games and enjoy being a fan" standpoint. I can't see the doom and gloom than most of you are spewing right now. We add two players who are better than the majority of our roster right now. (More of an indictment on the roster than anything else but still it's a fact)

And give me a break with the James Singleton's (30 year old Journeyman Stretch 4 who can't stick on this Wizards team year after year) and Cartier Martin's ( 27 year old Journeyman 3 who also can't stick on this Wizards team year after year) being as good as Ariza and Okefor. Maybe this past season in limited # of games, they put up similar stats but come on, stop letting the HATE cloud common sense. You put Ariza on the floor with Martin, and you see the difference in skills. Same goes with Singleton and Okefor, sure James can knock down a 18 footer but when it comes to being a big in the NBA, it's no contest. These two are not great by any stretch of the imagination but it's indisputable to say that their not better than what we have or have had in the post big 3 era.

Also for all of complaints that this stunts the development of Seraphin, Vesley and Booker. I find this to be a little hypocritical as some were advocating the selection of Thomas Robinson or Drummond with the 3rd pick not too long ago. Stating reasons like: Vesley is a sunk cost, he'll be nothing more than a high energy guy off the bench. Yes, Seraphin did improve but he's still a work in progress before we can call him a starter and his presence shouldn't deter us from taking another big like Robinson or Drummond if it will help the team. If anything, this is better for them as Whitman will have no problem sitting a veteran on a 2 year rental for a young promising draft pick. Now if we would have selected Robinson, that's a high pick investment which would be an strong indication of what the organization thinks about both Kevin and Jan.

To sum it all up. This trade improves the roster today, we still have a plethora of young talent for the future, these are not organization killing contracts and there is competition, professionalism and determination (if the young guys want to play) that will be seen up and down the team. I'm ok with this.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#905 » by DCZards » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:49 pm

Okafor may indeed be the team's worst big (as at least one poster claimed)...but, for better or for worse, he's also the Zards best rebounder and shotblocker. And, while Ariza may be mediocre, stats show that he's coming off his best season in a number of categories and is arguably the Zards best SF. Both Emeka and Trevor are team-first vets, who play the right way, and that counts for something, imo.

I have no doubt that the trade does improve the Zards chances of making the playoffs--yes, some of us would be content with simply making the playoffs next year. In addition, both Okafor and Ariza are on short-term contracts, as opposed to the longer-term, expensive contracts for slightly above-average free agent players like Anderson and Illysova that some on this board "dream" about.

This was not a "great" trade by any stretch, but it's also not the "sky is falling" trade that some posters are painting it as.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#906 » by tontoz » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:49 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:And for Ariza - I think he has many similar physical attributes as Singleton. (Don't forget, however "stiff" Singleton looked as a rookie, he had outstanding scores at the pre-draft combine.) But what Ariza has that CSing doesn't is experience. Craftiness. Knowing the tricks of the trade.



And yet he still sucked.


Again, if Chris can watch and learn for 2 years, maybe he comes out of it with a defensive game approximating Ariza's.


i sure hope not. I see no reason to believe that Singleton isn't already a better defender than Ariza.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#907 » by DCZards » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:54 pm

Good post, sev.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#908 » by tontoz » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:59 pm

DCZards wrote:Okafor may indeed be the team's worst big...but, for better or for worse, he's also the Zards best rebounder and shotblocker.



2007 was the last year that Okafor blocked shots at a rate as high as Seraphin did this year.

He certainly should be the teams leading rebounder but the price tag for those rebounds is way too high, like paying $100k for a used Civic.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#909 » by willbcocks » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:08 pm

16 per for a SG or SF would have been a huge upgrade on what we have. For a PF it's not--Vesely's per in the last month was 17, and he was probably the least productive of our four bigs. For a big man 16 is nothing special--it's probably below average.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#910 » by willbcocks » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:09 pm

tontoz wrote:
Severn Hoos wrote:And for Ariza - I think he has many similar physical attributes as Singleton. (Don't forget, however "stiff" Singleton looked as a rookie, he had outstanding scores at the pre-draft combine.) But what Ariza has that CSing doesn't is experience. Craftiness. Knowing the tricks of the trade.



And yet he still sucked.


Again, if Chris can watch and learn for 2 years, maybe he comes out of it with a defensive game approximating Ariza's.


i sure hope not. I see no reason to believe that Singleton isn't already a better defender than Ariza.


You're stretching it--Singleton was complete garbage on defense last year. Ariza is a good defender. There's other points to focus on.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#911 » by nate33 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:15 pm

willbcocks wrote:16 per for a SG or SF would have been a huge upgrade on what we have. For a PF it's not--Vesely's per in the last month was 17, and he was probably the least productive of our four bigs. For a big man 16 is nothing special--it's probably below average.

Looking at a screen of rotation-caliber PF's who averaged 15 or minutes a game for at least 40 games, the average PER was 16.38. If you bump up the minutes cutoff to 20 minutes a game, the average PER increases to 17.29. If you look only at starters (25+ minutes per game), the average PER is 19.45.

http://www.hoopdata.com/advancedstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PF&yr=2012&gp=40&mins=15

EDIT: the link didn't work so copy and past this if you want.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#912 » by dobrojim » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:19 pm

Ruzious wrote:Granted, Miami is earning this, but that flagrant foul call on Fisher trying to draw a charge on Lebron is emblematic of the officiating problems. There's no way that's even considered a possibility if it's against anyone other than Lebron. What a terrible call.


not sure how this slipped into the trade thread but right after that
play, I turn the game off. If a borderline charge is a flagrant blocking
foul, this is more WWF than real professional sports.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#913 » by tontoz » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:19 pm

willbcocks wrote:You're stretching it--Singleton was complete garbage on defense last year. Ariza is a good defender. There's other points to focus on.



The Hornets have consistently given up more points when Ariza was playing over the last 2 seasons. This year it was over 3 points and last year it was over 2.

In Houston his DRTG was 108.31.

Those numbers aren't consistent with strong defense.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#914 » by DCZards » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:35 pm

tontoz wrote:
The Hornets have consistently given up more points when Ariza was playing over the last 2 seasons. This year it was over 3 points and last year it was over 2.

In Houston his DRTG was 108.31.

Those numbers aren't consistent with strong defense.


Last time I looked basketball was a team sport with five players on the court at the same time. So, personally, I'm always a little a leery of isolating numbers like these (and using them to try to prove a point) without any additional context.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#915 » by tontoz » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:44 pm

DCZards wrote:
tontoz wrote:
The Hornets have consistently given up more points when Ariza was playing over the last 2 seasons. This year it was over 3 points and last year it was over 2.

In Houston his DRTG was 108.31.

Those numbers aren't consistent with strong defense.


Last time I looked basketball was a team sport with five players on the court at the same time. So, personally, I'm always a little a leery of isolating numbers like these (and using them to try to prove a point) without any additional context.




I think 3 years worth of data, along with the link Ruz posted, definitely call into question Ariza's defensive ability.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#916 » by dobrojim » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:51 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:I'm not a fan of this trade mostly because of the limited cap flexibility in the future years, but the criticism of Okafor and Ariza is kind of ridiculous, IMO. Take Okafor - he was "injured" this past year, but we also know that the Hornets had every reason to shut him down rather than play him (and risk aggravating the injury) when the post-trade goal for them was to acquire ping pong balls. So I don't put much worry into the fact that he played 27 (out of 66) games. And when he did play, in a "down year", he had a PER of 15.1, shot 53% from the floor, and averaged 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. If he is indeed healthy (and I do understand the chronic back issue, that's obviously a concern), there's no reason to think those numbers wouldn't improve this coming season.

Then, when you look at 2010-11 - when the Hornets were a playoff team, so there's no "good stats on a bad team" syndrome going on here - he played 72 games, had a PER of 16.0, shot 57% from the floor, and averaged 11 rebounds per 36, with a DReb% of 25%. And the three seasons before that, he played all 82 games in each season, never had a PER below 16.5, never shot below 55%, and his Reb% consistently at 18%, with a DReb% at 25% or better.

Again - if he is healthy and can approximate those numbers, he is clearly much, much better than "average." And certainly not "below average."

And here's the other thing. Okafor has shown the ability to be a great rebounder, particularly on the defensive boards. Why is he able to do that? Is it physical attributes, some 6th sense, or what? Well, a lot of it has to come from technique and using his strength and leverage to keep his man off the glass. In other words, things that can be taught. Now, Keveen has many of the same physical attributes that Emeka has. Maybe if he spends 2 years watching and learning, he'll pick up defensive rebounding from Okafor the way he seems to have responded to Nene (who, frankly, is not a great rebounder). One can hope, anyway.

And for Ariza - I think he has many similar physical attributes as Singleton. (Don't forget, however "stiff" Singleton looked as a rookie, he had outstanding scores at the pre-draft combine.) But what Ariza has that CSing doesn't is experience. Craftiness. Knowing the tricks of the trade. Again, if Chris can watch and learn for 2 years, maybe he comes out of it with a defensive game approximating Ariza's. And as it has been pointed out many times, he is already a better 3-point shooter than Ariza, he may end up as an ideal fit in the coveted 3-and-D role.

So - I still wouldn't have made the trade because I hate that our flexibility in FA is pretty much gone now. And I think the price that was paid in the hope of secondary benefits to guys like Seraphin and Singleton was way too high. But I do believe the trade was made mostly to improve those guys, not to get Okafor & Ariza for their own sake. And in that, I can kind of understand it.


good balanced post Sev. I concur.

loss of flexibilty - bad

influx of vet knowledge with the possibility of productive play
AND we won't be paying huge bucks for shard to go away - good

Yes I understand they committed more total $$ to Okafor and Ariza.
I would only point out that it remains to be seen how much of that
present commitment they end up paying particularly in the 2nd year.
At worst they are at least getting players who have some possibility of
playing and mentoring the kids. I have little concern that the presence
of these 2 guys will be chemistry destroying.

As you point out, Okafor has been a productive player in the past and
he could be attractive trade bait. I'm intrigued by the possibility that
as a solid big, he could yield a quality wing in a trade, like Ricky Martin.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#917 » by Induveca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 5:02 pm

The trade wasn't good, but the outcome won't be horrible.

I've never seen the board whine at this level. We'll have MKG or Beal alongside Wall, with Nene/Seraphin and Ariza on the floor. That is leaps and bounds ahead of where were were last year.

I'll be excited to watch this team compete for once.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#918 » by The Consiglieri » Fri Jun 22, 2012 5:07 pm

Chaos Revenant wrote:Why is everyone blithely assuming this trade makes us a playoff team when we weren't before?

I think we were a fringe playoff team by doing nothing. Okafor and Ariza add almost nothing to our team, other than being mediocre veterans. Okafor is quite frankly the worst player in our big-man rotation (Ves, Booker, Seraphin and Nene are all better). How much better is Ariza better than Singleton? Not enough to justify trading for him.

This trade adds literally NO value to our roster - that is my problem with it.


Initially I also made the mistaken assumption that this would drive us to perpetual Buck-land, but I actually think you're on the money, what this does, is lock in the high end, of the low expectations going forward. I think it makes it far more likely that we reach the ceiling I projected a month ago after the lottery, but it's really difficult to imagine this pushing us to a playoff spot. 33-35 wins, basically about a 7-10 win improvement on what our '11-'12 season would project too. This won't be accomplished with Ariza or Okafor either, it will be accomplished with the improvements of Seraphin, Booker and Ves (if they both stay), Wall, and the #3 pick. Ariza should improve the play at the 3 a bit, Okafor will notch up the depth in our front court, but that's it. This team will be a 32-50 to 35-47 caliber team this year.

And in the end, that's what's most amusing about the deal, it won't accomplish the goals of the idiots that recommended it, and it won't accomplish the goals of those who hate it. The team won't be able to build enough momentum on the youth movement, or parlay those veteran additions into anything of note, instead, we'll slot right in the mid-late lottery, and good luck achieving much with that. Even worse, we'll be forcing a pick in the lottery apparently, instead of taking the best player on our board because you know, the greatness that is Trevor Ariza, renders the talent of MKG a mere pale shadow in comparison.

Genius.

This team is going nowhere fast, hop on guys, I think we'll rediscover the wonders of Tom Hammond and LaBradford Smith's love child right around the corner.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#919 » by Ruzious » Fri Jun 22, 2012 5:07 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:I'm not a fan of this trade mostly because of the limited cap flexibility in the future years, but the criticism of Okafor and Ariza is kind of ridiculous, IMO. Take Okafor - he was "injured" this past year, but we also know that the Hornets had every reason to shut him down rather than play him (and risk aggravating the injury) when the post-trade goal for them was to acquire ping pong balls. So I don't put much worry into the fact that he played 27 (out of 66) games. And when he did play, in a "down year", he had a PER of 15.1, shot 53% from the floor, and averaged 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. If he is indeed healthy (and I do understand the chronic back issue, that's obviously a concern), there's no reason to think those numbers wouldn't improve this coming season.

Then, when you look at 2010-11 - when the Hornets were a playoff team, so there's no "good stats on a bad team" syndrome going on here - he played 72 games, had a PER of 16.0, shot 57% from the floor, and averaged 11 rebounds per 36, with a DReb% of 25%. And the three seasons before that, he played all 82 games in each season, never had a PER below 16.5, never shot below 55%, and his Reb% consistently at 18%, with a DReb% at 25% or better.

Again - if he is healthy and can approximate those numbers, he is clearly much, much better than "average." And certainly not "below average."

And here's the other thing. Okafor has shown the ability to be a great rebounder, particularly on the defensive boards. Why is he able to do that? Is it physical attributes, some 6th sense, or what? Well, a lot of it has to come from technique and using his strength and leverage to keep his man off the glass. In other words, things that can be taught. Now, Keveen has many of the same physical attributes that Emeka has. Maybe if he spends 2 years watching and learning, he'll pick up defensive rebounding from Okafor the way he seems to have responded to Nene (who, frankly, is not a great rebounder). One can hope, anyway.

And for Ariza - I think he has many similar physical attributes as Singleton. (Don't forget, however "stiff" Singleton looked as a rookie, he had outstanding scores at the pre-draft combine.) But what Ariza has that CSing doesn't is experience. Craftiness. Knowing the tricks of the trade. Again, if Chris can watch and learn for 2 years, maybe he comes out of it with a defensive game approximating Ariza's. And as it has been pointed out many times, he is already a better 3-point shooter than Ariza, he may end up as an ideal fit in the coveted 3-and-D role.

So - I still wouldn't have made the trade because I hate that our flexibility in FA is pretty much gone now. And I think the price that was paid in the hope of secondary benefits to guys like Seraphin and Singleton was way too high. But I do believe the trade was made mostly to improve those guys, not to get Okafor & Ariza for their own sake. And in that, I can kind of understand it.

I appreciate your points, but those PER numbers for Okafor aren't impressive for a starting center. They're way below Javale McGee's. And while he's a solid rebounder, he's not as good a rebounder as James Singleton - who we could have kept for relative peanuts. And as Payitforward mentioned, Okafor's rebounding has declined - and at age 30 - nothing about him is going to likely improve. Keveeeen doesn't need another mentor. Being around Okafor isn't likely to affect Kev's rebounding rate. And Ariza is what he is without Kobe in his prime attracting double teams to free him up - a very average player with poor efficiency. I don't see anything more than marginal improvement from getting these guys, and I'd rather Seraphin, Vesely, Booker,and James Singleton share the playing time that Okafor is likely going to get.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza 

Post#920 » by dobrojim » Fri Jun 22, 2012 5:13 pm

I think we already know that PER overrates McGee. McGee had a consistently
good PER and a consistently negative influence on winning.
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