Post#208 » by Landomar » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:23 pm
Out of all the players projected to go in the top 15-20 this season, Rivers needs to improve the most to become a good NBA player. He seems smart and is young, but if he doesn't develop A LOT, then he's going to be awful at the next level.
1. His current play is really quite bad. He had a 16.8 PER this last season (his freshman year), and that was pretty much worse than every player currently projected to go in the first round by draft express (Marquis Teague is the only exception). Barnes and Lamb both played better than Rivers did in their respective freshman seasons, and are both better right now, despite being more "raw" and "toolsy" in certain aspects. Waiters was a non-factor as a freshman, but just had a great sophmore season (26.1 PER, which is #1 for top prospect wing players in this draft). This helps inspire confidence that Waiters is developing well, and with Rivers, it's still a "who knows?" type situation.
So, if we look at projection, there are two big concerns I see with Rivers:
2. Rivers is a shooter with bad shooting mechanics; his shot is flat, and he only managed to shoot 65.8% from the free throw line, which is a bad sign.
3. He looks skinny and doesn't seem very strong. It's unclear how well he's going to finish at the rim in traffic at the NBA level. This is important, as a main strength of Rivers is his ability to dribble well enough to weave his way in towards the basket and actually get there. Defensively, strength could also be a concern on switches and with attempting to rebound (Rivers currently has shown PG level rebounding aptitude).
Imagine a slightly bigger Bayless, only one who still finishes poorly at the rim, doesn't shoot well from outside (think of Bayless in one of his cold stretches), and is kind of stuck between PG and SG. Do you want to draft that at #8? There's a significant chance that I've just described who Rivers is going to be at the next level.
On the plus side, he has good length, decent mobility, and plays smart out there. I wouldn't consider drafting him anywhere near #8 though. Waiters, Barnes, and Lamb would all be smarter picks, and I'm not even a huge fan of any of those guys.