2011-12 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[ardee]

I am genuinely confounded as to how people would rank Nowitzki in the top 5 this year. 22-7 on 47% shooting? 27-7-2 in the playoffs, but he got swept and shot just 44%. 44% for a SEVEN FOOTER. I mean seriously, he had his year in 2011, but he was nowhere close this season.

My top 5:

1. LeBron James (this could rank with '00 Shaq, '91 Jordan and '67 Wilt as the most clear-cut best players ever)

2. Kevin Durant (He was tearing it up in the Finals (31 PPG on 65 TS% is downright crazy), but failed to contribute in any other way when he was not scoring. If he had played at the all-around level he was during the Spurs series, maybe this would have gotten interesting)

3. Chris Paul (This is hard. He was GREAT in the regular season. Just to watch the way he controlled games so completely was a thing of beauty. Honestly, that Clipper squad is not very good. Everyone is so dependent on Paul. Then, of course, his injury in the Playoffs ruined things. Wish we had seen what he was capable of minus the injury. Maybe something resembling what he did to the Lakers last year?).

4/5. Kobe Bryant/Kevin Garnett (I can't say right now. I just can't. Leaning toward KB24 for the no. 4 spot, will want to hear some more arguments).

[MisterWestside]

You got a lot of patience with trolls mystic

dzra, thanks for the post. I use RAPM as one of my main sources, but I still have to take it with a grain of salt like with any other metric simply because while +/- captures everything that takes place on the court, it's still susceptible to team confounds. From what I've seen in stat studies on the web, it's ability to predict future seasons (which is the goal for any metric) surpasses its predecessor APM and box score metrics such as PER, but it isn't perfect. I would say that Dirk's high RAPM is (partly) reflected by Cuban/Winston's terffic work to build a team around him that fits (and I'm not saying Dirk is some "system" player; I've ranked him as an elite player of the decade even before the Mavs won their title). Paul was traded to the Clippers to a new environment and their own "franchise player" (note the quotes), and had to help get that team off the ground running. It's why I consider Paul's season more impressive imo.

[MacGill]

I would say that Dirk's high RAPM is (partly) reflected by Cuban/Winston's terffic work to build a team around him that fits (and I'm not saying Dirk is some "system" player; I've ranked him as an elite player of the decade even before the Mavs won their title).

This is an interesting point to me and something that we have seen over the course of the nba with select players. Obviously, the ultra elite make their impact regardless but DRZA can you touch base on this point as well.

[drza]

dzra, thanks for the post. I still have to take RAPM with a grain of salt like with any other metric simply because while +/- captures everything that takes place on the court, it's still susceptible to team confounds. From what I've seen in stat studies on the web, it's ability to predict future seasons (which is the goal for any metric) surpasses its predecessor APM and box score metrics such as PER, but it isn't perfect. I would say that Dirk's high RAPM is (partly) reflected by Cuban/Winston's terffic work to build a team around him that fits (and I'm not saying Dirk is some "system" player; I've ranked him as an elite player of the decade even before the Mavs won their title). Paul was traded to the Clippers to a new environment and their own "franchise player" (note the quotes), and had to help get that team off the ground running. It's why I consider Paul's season more impressive imo.

You'll get no argument from me about taking any (and all) stats with a grain of salt, even if my conclusion is a bit different than yours. But allow me to retort (/ Jules). Somewhere in this thread I'm pretty sure that Mystic posted something to the order that Dirk averaged like 25 points on 58% TS to start the year, then went through a 14 game stretch of playing like crap around when his knee was hurt, then ended the season again averaging 25 points on 58% TS (this from top of my head, so apologize if misquoted) and then Dirk went to the playoffs and averaged 27 points on 56% TS.

Couldn't the argument be made, then, that Dirk was playing at very close to the level of last season that earned him a #1 nod for the entirety of the season except during the time when his knee was hurting...that essentially Dirk and Paul turned in very similar impacts when healthy, except that Dirk got his injury out of the way early in the year while Paul's came at the worst possible time in the postseason? And if so, wouldn't that give Dirk the advantage over Paul in a player of the year vote?

(By the way, I agree with you about it being impressive that Paul maintained his huge impact in an entirely new environment. In a way, that piece of evidence makes me more secure about my usage of RAPM for this crew of players...LeBron, KG, Dirk and now Paul have all maintained elite level +/- impact on vastly different teams through the years. Makes it more convincing that their current elite +/- status isn't a fluke).

[Mo26]

You got a lot of patience with trolls mystic

.

I'm a troll because I disagree with you? Grow up kid.

[drza]

I would say that Dirk's high RAPM is (partly) reflected by Cuban/Winston's terffic work to build a team around him that fits (and I'm not saying Dirk is some "system" player; I've ranked him as an elite player of the decade even before the Mavs won their title).

This is an interesting point to me and something that we have seen over the course of the nba with select players. Obviously, the ultra elite make their impact regardless but DRZA can you touch base on this point as well.

I touched on it a bit (tangentially) in my last post, but to me history plays a large part in validating it. Dirk finished top-5 in RAPM with positive values on both offense and defense back in the 03-04 season on a misfit team of all offensive players with position repetition coached by Don Nelson. He finished top-5 in RAPM with positive values on both offense and defense in 2006 on a unipolar offensive team with good, balanced role players coached by Avery Johnson. And now he's continuing in the top-5 with (higher) positive offense/defense marks on a different unipolar offensive team with different role players coached by Rick Carlisle.

If I were making the argument that Dirk's RAPM being higher this year was why he should be over Paul, then I'd agree that we should take a much closer look at whether the relatively small difference in score and placement were too influenced by something like team fit. But here I'm only making the argument that their RAPM scores are enough to place them together among the most impactful players in the NBA during the regular season and that differences in their box score evaluations aren't enough for me to see much separation between them since one of Dirk's strongly postulated strengths isn't covered by the box score. The slight separation that I did find among them was tied primarily to the timing of Paul's injury, and of Dirk not doing anything to hurt/help himself in the postseason while Paul definitely hurt himself (literally and within the rankings). Though I'm still willing to be swayed if I see a particularly convincing argument for Paul.

[Mo26]

[

quote="mysticbb"]

The only response I get is your opinion without anything to back it up except of "ppg".

Blatant lie.Nice.

As if "ppg" would be the only thing to consider.

I brought up much more than PPG. Try again.

Those are the facts.

Wrong.

Bryant didn't make as big of an impact as at least 5 other players in the league. That is the reality,

He made more impact than all but 3-4 players. That's the reality.
.

If Bryant passes the ball to a 35% 3pt shooter, it will still be better than taking a bad shot with 29% success rate (Bryant's 3pt% when he is creating the shot).

Yeah, he never passes. He only averages more APG than any non-PG but LBJ and Iggy. I bet he gets those assists by magic!

Those are the facts. Deal with it!

Kobe is top 5. Dork is not. Kobe is well ahead of Dork all-time. Deal with it!!!

[Mo26]

I am genuinely confounded as to how people would rank Nowitzki in the top 5 this year. 22-7 on 47% shooting? 27-7-2 in the playoffs, but he got swept and shot just 44%. 44% for a SEVEN FOOTER.

]

Not to mention the horrible leadership he displayed by coming into the season fat and out of shape and playing like garbage to star the season. Real nice way to defend your championship, Dork.

Plus, 7 RPG from a PF? Absolutely pathetic.

lol @ this dude being top 5.

[MisterWestside]

Couldn't the argument be made, then, that Dirk was playing at very close to the level of last season that earned him a #1 nod for the entirety of the season except during the time when his knee was hurting...that essentially Dirk and Paul turned in very similar impacts when healthy, except that Dirk got his injury out of the way early in the year while Paul's came at the worst possible time in the postseason? And if so, wouldn't that give Dirk the advantage over Paul in a player of the year vote?

Well, that's why I was focusing on the regular season in my posts - I'm still figuring out the playoff part of it But you could make a case for that, although the playoffs involve smaller sample sizes. I also don't think Dirk was that much more impressive (and with a smaller sample of playoff games than Paul) to put him ahead. I think Paul's defense help to make up for edge Dirk had in offense in the playoffs.

I touched on it a bit (tangentially) in my last post, but to me history plays a large part in validating it. Dirk finished top-5 in RAPM with positive values on both offense and defense back in the 03-04 season on a misfit team of all offensive players with position repetition coached by Don Nelson. He finished top-5 in RAPM with positive values on both offense and defense in 2006 on a unipolar offensive team with good, balanced role players coached by Avery Johnson. And now he's continuing in the top-5 with (higher) positive offense/defense marks on a different unipolar offensive team with different role players coached by Rick Carlisle.

All true, but I still think this favors Dirk in RAPM a bit simply because he's been a mainstay on the Mavs for over a decade, and the Mavs brass is good at putting the right players/system in place. Even elite players can benefit from that in +/-, even though these players are more "adaptable" than their peers.

[mysticbb]

Yeah, he never passes.

Who said that? I wrote that taking a bad shot is worse than making the pass to an open teammate, even when his teammate is converting that open shot just with 35%. It is still better than shooting 29%.

Oh, and 43 FG% and 30 3P% from a SG, pathetic! ;)

Not to mention the horrible leadership he displayed by coming into the season fat and out of shape and playing like garbage to star the season.

3rd game of the season in Oklahoma City: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e_6DvPllV8

Well, looks like a fat and out of shape Nowitzki going for 29/10/4 . I might not be as good with my eyes as you are, but I don't see Nowitzki as being fat at all.

Nowitzki suffered a sore right knee, played through it, but then had to sit out to work on that. Some media guys invented the story that Nowitzki would be "out of shape" and would need to work on his "conditioning". The reality was that Nowitzki's knee didn't become better when he played. It became pretty clear that only concentrated work on the knee without the interruption of travelling and playing could solve the issue. And it solved it.

Here is an article on that: http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/20 ... -of-shape/

[MisterWestside]

I am genuinely confounded as to how people would rank Nowitzki in the top 5 this year.

I wouldn't, but he's easily still among the best players in the league.

[Doctor MJ]

The Voting thread is up and stickied. Do read the instructions before posting there.

The Discussion thread will continue to be up and stickied during this process for reference, and if people would like to carry on conversation here.

~Doc

[An Unbiased Fan]

Im noticing Love isnt getting any honorable mentions. He had elite production and was basically keeping them playoff contenders before he went down. His stats/efficiency are really great why doesnt he get reps?

Agreed. In fact I think Love is going to be my #5 choice. 26/13 is fairly huge.

[AnaheimRoyale]

Love would be ahead of Kobe, that's for sure.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Love would be ahead of Kobe, that's for sure.

Well no, because I have Kobe #3 and CP3 at #4.

[AnaheimRoyale]

And you're living up to your name.

[C-izMe]

Love would be ahead of Kobe, that's for sure.

I don't think Love's impact is too great. The team fell off after Ricky left and definetly weren't contending for the playoffs. Meanwhile Kobe had a great regular season (28/5/5), was clearly the best player on the third seeded Lakers, and was the only person on his team (aside from Metta) who seemed to want to win in the playoffs. Pau was soft, Bynum was bodied by Perk, and Sessions did his best Fisher impression for the first 43 minutes of the game before turning into Casper for the next 5. Was Kobe perfect? No but he was better than Love IMO.

[An Unbiased Fan]

And you're living up to your name.

I agree, I am.

1) Lebron - MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D defense, Finals MVP, crazy production. This one is a no-brainer.

2) Durant - #2 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, scoring champ, great regular season, and great playoffs at 29/7/4. Obvious choice

3) Kobe - #4 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D defense, 28/5/5 in RS, and 30/5/4 in PS. LA simply lost to a better, deeper team. Not sure why Kobe isn't in more Top 5 considering the load he had to carry. His efficiency dipped, but that was due to a new offensive system they were integrating.

4) CP3 - #3 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D 1st team. Was a little iffy due to his playoffs dropoff, but overall i think he still beats out the #5 due to overall impact. Stats don't accurately reflect Paul's impact on the Clippers this season.

5) Love - #6 in MVP, All-NBA 2nd, 26/13 in production. 22 games with 15+ rebounds

[AnaheimRoyale]

A brilliant parody. Keep it up man.

[Mo26]

Who said that?

You.

And they don't convert at 35%.

Oh, and 43 FG% and 30 3P% from a SG, pathetic!

Nowhere near as pathetic as 7 RPG from a PF.

Well, looks like a fat and out of shape Nowitzki going for 29/10/4 . I might not be as good with my eyes as you are, but I don't see Nowitzki as being fat at all.

He came into the season out of shape. Nice leadership by Dork.