Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XXXVII Off-Season Edition)

[Def Swami]

I'm more and more intrigued by the Rockets deal. If they can take all 3 of our toxic contracts, it seems like a no-brainer.

They offer a springboard into a rebuild. Jeremy Lamb + Andrew Nicholson would 2 awesome players to develop all of next year, while sucking to get a high lottery pick (Noel) to pair with the other lottery pick we get from HOU. At some point, we could have Jameer/Lamb/draft/Nicholson/Noel and allow that team to gel and grow for a few years, much like OKC did.

[ThatFloridaDude]

I don't see why Dwight doesn't 'pull a Robinson' and stay injured all year while allowing the Magic to tank. With a high lottery pick and cap space the Magic will have more assets to pull off a long term plan. It worked for DWade (of course he had the patience since he'd already won one championship).

Miami didn't quite Tank though. San Antonio tanked enough to get in the draft lottery. Miami (if you want to call it tanked) still made the play offs. Plus they built their team through Free Angency. You can tank or be pretty good and do that.

Everybody wants to tank on here, but teams put together through Free Angency or Trades have been the strongest teams this last 5 years. And Still will be next year.

Miami
Boston
L.A.
Chicago
Memphis (yes Memphis)
before last season, the Magic.

But again, I'll be a loner on these boards with my perspective.

YOU ARE NOT A LONER.

Tanking is one of the worst methods in building a team.
OKC is the exception not the rule.
The miraculous exception.

Tanking builds a losing mentality amongst the young players on the roster, destroys the fan base (not the die-hards on these boards, but the vast majority that are not here) and creates a scenario where you have to overpay free agents to get them to even consider coming.

Not to mention that the success rate of high draft picks is 50% at best, and that's just for players who actually start long-term...
I think a lot of people have rose-colored glasses of delusion on when it comes to tanking.

Outside of keeping Dwight or landing an extended Bynum, this team is in for a LONG run of bottom dwelling.

Don't get me wrong I'll take the houston package need be say but, Bynum and a Gasol package can't be beat. You can trade Gasol for some pieces I'm sure and if not we'd have a great frontline (which if I recall correctly is exactly how L.A. beat Orlando in the finals) and we could surround them with perimeter players.

This franchise has been one of the most successful franchises in it's years esp recent years and tanking is too risky.

Washington Tanked after the Gilbert,Antwan,Caron Trio
Golden State tanked after that crazy 2007 team which through free agency was successful
Houston tanked and have not had much success, although really yao ming f'ed them over. Still though point is I think we have caliber players we should continue to exercise that if all possible.

But I certainly agree. I don't find draft picks success rate too high, if we get blessed with a great player in next years draft so be it. But I'd definitely take my chances on a 7 foot center (which is hard to find) with a huge offensive potential and defensive potential to grow and make huge impact on a team for next 5 years. But thats just me.

It's something effective Centers bring to teams, that effective guards dont.

[RickB-Orlando]

Bynum strengths.

-Nice soft touch around the basket with either hand.
-Nice touch to develop a consistant turn around J or a 15 footer.
-Power, dude is huge, he will steam roll you down for better position.
-Post defense.
-Size and length to outrebound anyone, doesn't neccessarily have to be in position to get a rebound.
- Long arms to block anything close to him
- Nasty streak
- Good free throw shooter for a big center.
- hard worker in the off season, hence his muscle mass he gained last season.


Bynum weaknesses.
- Trouble covering ground on pick and roll defense
- Tends to hurry his shot on offense, and forces a shot.
- Struggle with doubles and passing out of doubles but improved later in season.
- Plays with a chip on his shoulder, which is good, but no so good when it gets best of him, either cheap foul or lets emotions get the best of him when he doesn't get his touches.
- Gets caught jogging slowly down the court and not at full speed.
- Doesn't moves his feet well enough caught in the high post to protect the rim.

Short example.

Last year was really his first year when he demanded a double team every time he got the ball. I can only see him evolving even more with passing out of doubles, and being more patient around the rim and make the game easier for him. I would like to see him drop a few pounds for defenses purposes when he does get caught on a defensive rotation and running the floor.

I'd be pretty darned happy if we could wind up with this on our team.

[Def Swami]

Bynum strengths.

-Nice soft touch around the basket with either hand.
-Nice touch to develop a consistant turn around J or a 15 footer.
-Power, dude is huge, he will steam roll you down for better position.
-Post defense.
-Size and length to outrebound anyone, doesn't neccessarily have to be in position to get a rebound.
- Long arms to block anything close to him
- Nasty streak
- Good free throw shooter for a big center.
- hard worker in the off season, hence his muscle mass he gained last season.


Bynum weaknesses.
- Trouble covering ground on pick and roll defense
- Tends to hurry his shot on offense, and forces a shot.
- Struggle with doubles and passing out of doubles but improved later in season.
- Plays with a chip on his shoulder, which is good, but no so good when it gets best of him, either cheap foul or lets emotions get the best of him when he doesn't get his touches.
- Gets caught jogging slowly down the court and not at full speed.
- Doesn't moves his feet well enough caught in the high post to protect the rim.

Short example.

Last year was really his first year when he demanded a double team every time he got the ball. I can only see him evolving even more with passing out of doubles, and being more patient around the rim and make the game easier for him. I would like to see him drop a few pounds for defenses purposes when he does get caught on a defensive rotation and running the floor.

I'd be pretty darned happy if we could wind up with this on our team.

+1
Thanks for that breakdown, XFactor

[ThatFloridaDude]

I need you to clarify a few things...
The bulls drafted Noah, Rose, and essentially Deng, how were they 'put together' through trades and FA? Are you saying the boozer signing is what put them over the top and not drafting Rose/Noah/Deng?
Memphis drafted Conley, Gay, Mayo (essentially) and Pau Gasol (which as an asset, turned into Marc Gasol). I also would not say that team was 'put together' through trades/free agency. Their core pieces were put together through the draft and they added a big piece in Randolph through FA.
How do you think the celtics were able to get Garnett and Allen? By collecting assets through the draft, which they were able to then trade.
LA drafted Kobe/Bynum/Fisher/Marc Gasol (who they flipped for Pau)
Miami is the only team you could make a case for being built solely through Free Agency.
OKC is the only team you could make the case for being built solely through the draft.
The fact of the matter is great teams are typically built through the draft with trading being a by-product of good drafting

You're mistaken on LA, and none of the other juggernauts you are referencing have won anything yet.

This.

Teams like Oh say Philly (which I love their team) , they're just not good enough and have proven that every year.
Milwaukee (before mOnte) has always had a "threatening" team but just not good enough.
An the teams you've mentioned.

I just think that free agency gives you a chance to get a guaranteed player to put your team over the top!

[SolidSnake008]

OT....so pissed right now.....Last Month my Xbox dies on me....Today My PS3 got that damn red blinking light.....i'm not spending 150 bones just to send it to Sony.....

[Orlando Tragic]

So camp opens end of September? I hope we're not dealing with this for 2 more months.

[chunnyboy]

on the tanking vs. tanking is bad debate

i think we can all agree that you have to be able to build around a cornerstone - and frankly the best way to do that is to draft one. in order to draft one, you're likely gonna have to have one crappy season

see: duncan, durant, irving, james, o'neal, griffin

if we're gonna get back to being contenders - we need either A) enough assets to turn it into a cornerstone building piece B) tank at least one season.

and from my standpoint - andrew bynum is not a championship building block: the talent and youth may be there but i'm still very scared by a 7'1"/285 man with balky knees (freak injuries as they were) and poor attitude.

the ideal houston assets (lamb, parsons, jones, toronto 1st) gives us the better chance to build through the draft and i trust henny in a draft

[MagicTownBaller]

OT....so pissed right now.....Last Month my Xbox dies on me....Today My PS3 got that damn red blinking light.....i'm not spending 150 bones just to send it to Sony.....

Get an Xbox again.

[ThatFloridaDude]

OT....so pissed right now.....Last Month my Xbox dies on me....Today My PS3 got that damn red blinking light.....i'm not spending 150 bones just to send it to Sony.....

Get an Xbox again.

Im selling my ps3 this week so I can get an xbox.

[colamagicfan]

no way Houston takes Turk, Duhon, and J rich contracts with Howards, thats over 40 million for Houston to take on and by the CBA a non tax paying team would not be able to take back no more then 125% + $100000 of what they send out, so Houston would have to give us over 30 mil in contracts.

[RickB-Orlando]

on the tanking vs. tanking is bad debate

i think we can all agree that you have to be able to build around a cornerstone - and frankly the best way to do that is to draft one. in order to draft one, you're likely gonna have to have one crappy season

I think this is a bad assumption. Many here - myself included - are not convinced you can't sign / trade for that cornerstone. Signing or trading for a proven star is less risky than drafting a potential star - see Greg Oden, Darko Millicic, Sam Bowie, or Pervis Ellison as examples (just to name a few).

If we're in the position to either tank and hope we draft the right player with potential or can trade for a cornerstone player (Bynum) I say we trade for the known quantity.

[Idunkonyou2]

no way Houston takes Turk, Duhon, and J rich contracts with Howards, thats over 40 million for Houston to take on and by the CBA a non tax paying team would not be able to take back no more then 125% + $100000 of what they send out, so Houston would have to give us over 30 mil in contracts.

If we send those out, I believe we would probably be getting back Scola and Martin which totals about 22 million. Add in the rookies and it would be pretty close. Of course I would keep Duhon. We can waive him in the offseason and he would only count 1.5 million. The two big contracts to move for us are Hedo and JRich. Right now they total 17 million. Of course we can waive Hedo in 2013 and save 6 million.

[Official]

Bynum is not a cornerstone player. He is the 2a, meaning there is a player equivalent to Bynum's level, or 3rd best player on a championship team.

[thelead]

no way Houston takes Turk, Duhon, and J rich contracts with Howards, thats over 40 million for Houston to take on and by the CBA a non tax paying team would not be able to take back no more then 125% + $100000 of what they send out, so Houston would have to give us over 30 mil in contracts.

Depends on their cap situation. If they have the cap space to absorb the contracts, then a lopsided trade can still occur.

[cvMagic]

on the tanking vs. tanking is bad debate

i think we can all agree that you have to be able to build around a cornerstone - and frankly the best way to do that is to draft one. in order to draft one, you're likely gonna have to have one crappy season

see: duncan, durant, irving, james, o'neal, griffin

if we're gonna get back to being contenders - we need either A) enough assets to turn it into a cornerstone building piece B) tank at least one season.

and from my standpoint - andrew bynum is not a championship building block: the talent and youth may be there but i'm still very scared by a 7'1"/285 man with balky knees (freak injuries as they were) and poor attitude.

the ideal houston assets (lamb, parsons, jones, toronto 1st) gives us the better chance to build through the draft and i trust henny in a draft

Agreed you have to build around a cornerstone.
Where we differ- I think Bynum is that guys.

After San Antonio drafted Duncan - they built the rest of their team with middle and late round draft picks. I trust the pedigree of Henny to be able to do this again.

The hard part - which is almost always due to luck - is finding the actual cornerstone.

Portland took Oden.
OKC got lucky and takes Durant.

Cleveland takes Lebron.
Detroit takes Darko.


It's a coin toss of luck. Bynum eliminates that coin toss. Then it's up to Rob to go find a Parker and Ginobli to compliment him.

Otherwise... there's a better chance we end up like Portland than OKC.

[Def Swami]

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
Most of us that have known Dwight understand why the Magic called to see if they could keep him, because he's always said he loves Orlando.

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
I am not sold he wants out of Orlando as much he wants out of the Magic... they have to convince him its a different culture and situation

[in-limbo]

I'm sure this has been mentioned but can Jersey amnesty/waive a player/players to get cap room next year?

I have had a feeling the Houston deal wasn't quite as easy as us getting all their assets and them getting an immature blowhard. Hopefully teams look around and see that the, humble servant of God that is Dwight Howard, won't have many options next year and up the offer. Bynum and Gasol is too good to be true.

[cvMagic]

Bynum is not a cornerstone player. He is the 2a, meaning there is a player equivalent to Bynum's level, or 3rd best player on a championship team.

He's 24 and stuck in the shadows of one of the highest volume shooters in NBA history.
He's 2A to one of the top ten players in NBA history.
Dwight would be 2A there as well.

[Def Swami]

I'm sure this has been mentioned but can Jersey amnesty/waive a player/players to get cap room next year?

I have had a feeling the Houston deal wasn't quite as easy as us getting all their assets and them getting an immature blowhard. Hopefully teams look around and see that the, humble servant of God that is Dwight Howard, won't have many options next year and up the offer. Bynum and Gasol is too good to be true.

Only players under contract from the old CBA and players that are still on their team from the old CBA. So they can't amnesty D-Will, Lopez, Johnson, or Crash.