Jonas Valanciunas Summer Discussion II

[MikeM]

I would be surprised if he got more than 10 minutes a game right off the bat.

Our coach won't play him if he's not better than Ed or Amir or Gray.

I think he'll start off really really slow and by the 2nd half he'll be starting but won't have enough time to get his averages up.

7 points
5 rebounds
1 block

[darth_federer]

He ll definitely be an elite rebounder. Rebounding is probably the most translatable skill regardless of what league/level you re playing at. Hollinger has a system of measuring how European player stats translate and hes usually pretty accurate.

Nonetheless, there were a few first-rounders who came from overseas in Thursday's draft, and several more could be arriving on our shores via free agency this summer. Thus, it's time for me to bust out my system of Euroleague translations.

There's a very predictable relationship between a player's stats in Europe and what they'll be in the NBA, one that shows surprisingly little variation between players. Those who make the jump from the Euroleague (the highest level of European basketball) to the NBA can expect the following:

• their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;
• their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);
• their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);
• their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and
• overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

Im sure someone can do a calculation.

[JV4MVP]

^



Pts: 10.8*(.75)= 8.1
Rbs: 7.6*(1.18)= 8.97
Asts: 0.9*(1.31)= 1.18
2 FG %: 63.4*(.88)= 55.79%
PER: n/a

So from the Eurocup you can interpolate the following: 8 pts, 56% FG, 9 rbs, 1 ast

[Rapsfan4life]

He ll definitely be an elite rebounder. Rebounding is probably the most translatable skill regardless of what league/level you re playing at. Hollinger has a system of measuring how European player stats translate and hes usually pretty accurate.

Nonetheless, there were a few first-rounders who came from overseas in Thursday's draft, and several more could be arriving on our shores via free agency this summer. Thus, it's time for me to bust out my system of Euroleague translations.

There's a very predictable relationship between a player's stats in Europe and what they'll be in the NBA, one that shows surprisingly little variation between players. Those who make the jump from the Euroleague (the highest level of European basketball) to the NBA can expect the following:

• their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;
• their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);
• their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);
• their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and
• overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

Im sure someone can do a calculation.

I think thats something like 9-11ppg/8-9rpg/1-1.5apg shooting 50-55% from the field in 23 minutes per game. Per 36 thats 14-17ppg/12-14rpg/1.5-2.5apg....wow

[darth_federer]

^



Pts: 10.8*(.75)= 8.1
Rbs: 7.6*(1.18)= 8.97
Asts: 0.9*(1.31)= 1.18
2 FG %: 63.4*(.88)= 55.79%
PER: n/a

So from the Eurocup you can interpolate the following: 8 pts, 56% FG, 9 rbs, 1 ast

Thanks for doing the calculation. Thats pretty good. Would be a really nice rookie season.

[bboyskinnylegs]

^^
Don't forget we're talking about rebound rate, which isn't quite the same as multiplying the rebounding numbers by 1.18. Rebound rate is (100 x rebounds x (team minutes played/5))/(minutes played x (team total rebounds + opposing team total rebounds))

His team didn't play in the Euroleague this season, but in 15 Euroleague games last season Jonas' rebound rate was 22.7 percent (Love's was 23.6% and Howard's was 21.8%). An 18% increase would put him at 26.8%. The highest in NBA history is Rodman, who had a 29.7% rebound rate in 94-95.

[Zeno]

^^ His team didn't play in the Euroleague this season, but in 15 Euroleague games last season Jonas' rebound rate was 22.7 percent (Love's was 23.6% and Howard's was 21.8%). An 18% increase would put him at 26.8%. The highest in NBA history is Rodman, who had a 29.7% rebound rate.

Don't forget the "Bargs effect" which adds another 15% to a players rebound numbers.

[JV4MVP]

^^
Don't forget we're talking about rebound rate, which isn't quite the same as multiplying the rebounding numbers by 1.18. Rebound rate is (100 x rebounds x (team minutes played/5))/(minutes played x (team total rebounds + opposing team total rebounds))

His team didn't play in the Euroleague this season, but in 15 Euroleague games last season Jonas' rebound rate was 22.7 percent (Love's was 23.6% and Howard's was 21.8%). An 18% increase would put him at 26.8%. The highest in NBA history is Rodman, who had a 29.7% rebound rate in 94-95.

The problem with that formula is that there are too many unknowns. Tough to calculate rates. How many minutes will he play... how many total rebounds... etc. Keep it simple. I just did the basic math and not sure if I even believe the rules of thumb.

I also wrote that the stat's were from the Eurocup... it's a tier lower than Euroleague but decent.

[bboyskinnylegs]

^^ His team didn't play in the Euroleague this season, but in 15 Euroleague games last season Jonas' rebound rate was 22.7 percent (Love's was 23.6% and Howard's was 21.8%). An 18% increase would put him at 26.8%. The highest in NBA history is Rodman, who had a 29.7% rebound rate.

Don't forget the "Bargs effect" which adds another 15% to a players rebound numbers.

[Eliowns]

Good.
Step 1 Sign a contract - Completed
Step 2 Dominate the League -

Step 3 CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!

STEP 4 GOAT

[bboyskinnylegs]

^^
Don't forget we're talking about rebound rate, which isn't quite the same as multiplying the rebounding numbers by 1.18. Rebound rate is (100 x rebounds x (team minutes played/5))/(minutes played x (team total rebounds + opposing team total rebounds))

His team didn't play in the Euroleague this season, but in 15 Euroleague games last season Jonas' rebound rate was 22.7 percent (Love's was 23.6% and Howard's was 21.8%). An 18% increase would put him at 26.8%. The highest in NBA history is Rodman, who had a 29.7% rebound rate in 94-95.

The problem with that formula is that there are too many unknowns. Tough to calculate rates. How many minutes will he play... how many total rebounds... etc. Keep it simple. I just did the basic math and not sure if I even believe the rules of thumb.

I also wrote that the stat's were from the Eurocup... it's a tier lower than Euroleague but decent.

yeah there's a ton of uncertainty with the variables involved, and Hollinger's projections are just that. Jonas is definitely a strong rebounder, but it will be interesting to see how well it translates over in his rookie season.

[DG88]

He ll definitely be an elite rebounder. Rebounding is probably the most translatable skill regardless of what league/level you re playing at. Hollinger has a system of measuring how European player stats translate and hes usually pretty accurate.

Nonetheless, there were a few first-rounders who came from overseas in Thursday's draft, and several more could be arriving on our shores via free agency this summer. Thus, it's time for me to bust out my system of Euroleague translations.

There's a very predictable relationship between a player's stats in Europe and what they'll be in the NBA, one that shows surprisingly little variation between players. Those who make the jump from the Euroleague (the highest level of European basketball) to the NBA can expect the following:

• their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;
• their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);
• their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);
• their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and
• overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

Im sure someone can do a calculation.

I think thats something like 9-11ppg/8-9rpg/1-1.5apg shooting 50-55% from the field in 23 minutes per game. Per 36 thats 14-17ppg/12-14rpg/1.5-2.5apg....wow

Can we say All Star centre in the next few years. Those are just projections but damn.

[lucky777s]

82 games is a long season. I think that will be the biggest adjustment. Hopefully we start him out slowly and don't run him into the ground. 20mpg or so would be good unless he really comes out ready and shows that star potential early.

I just hope the desperation of Raptor fans doesn't put too much pressure on the kid right away. Its likely he goes through big ups and downs and really struggles at times. Very young guy. And nba game is very unique - not pure basketball. Lots of funny little rules and star calls and just freakishly large and athletic guys to deal with.

[lander]

Ok ya'll stop this! You're getting me excited and as Toronto Raptors fan you know I'm not used to i t.

[SwiftyV]

Good.
Step 1 Sign a contract - Completed
Step 2 Dominate the League -

Step 3 CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!

STEP 4 GOAT

Step 5 Sleep with 20,000 women?

[T-Ross the Boss]

Step 6: Ask for a statue

[DG88]

Step 7: Induction to the Hall of Fame

[SwiftyV]

Seems like a pretty simple 7 step program.

[sanity]

Very encouraging to see how he fairs rebounding wise. Its something we've been lacking @ the 5 for too many years... practically since AD since Rasho was more of a loose-ball swatter than a rebounder.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

His rebound rate is inane, its almost unimaginable to think of it being that high or even growing cuz of bargs + easier to rebound in the nba.