In Defense of Okafor and Nene

[rockymac52]

Taken from an older thread after Wittman was extended...

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff   Diff   Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   102.9    92.1   +10.8     7      4     
After Trade   93.2   100.2    98.9    +1.3    11     14   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9    -9.0     9     32   

That's a DRAMATIC improvement. And it wasn't just the 6 game winning streak at the end of the year against teams playing out the string. It was a third of a season (25 games) of sustained competence despite a lot of injuries. Nene missed half of the games yet we still posted a +1.3 point differential.

Add Okafor, Ariza, and Price, and basic logic would lead us to believe that we'll be even better on defense this season. The small sample size is really the only argument against us having a good defense right now. But here's the thing, over those 25 games (not THAT small of a sample size), our defense wasn't just good, it was ELITE. Like, potentially the best in the entire league good. And to think that our defense might get even better with our new additions... wow, I'm honestly excited.

The teams that lead the league in defensive efficiency stats year in and year out are also the best teams in the league. Just take a look at the rankings in the past few years.

http://hoopdata.com/teamdefstats.aspx

I'm finding it very difficult to ignore our post-trade defensive efficiency stats (the stats with Nene are actually a very small sample size, so while they may be legitimate, they're easier for me to ignore for the time being... or rather, to not put all of my faith in them... yet). Then add Okafor, Ariza, Price, and perhaps Beal as well, and I feel like it's safe to assume we'll be even better defensively. Then also of course consider that that's how our new team performed immediately after the trade was made, with little to no time to work as a team to implement our system. Now we have an entire offseason and training camp. This is going to be one of the best Wizards teams, defensively, of all time. And even if our offense is REALLY, REALLY bad, if we have an elite defense, history shows that we're going to win a lot of games, certainly enough to make the playoffs. If our offense improves to average or even better, then watch out, we have a contender on our hands.

It's hard to picture this team winning a LOT of games this season, just because we've been so bad and it seems like there haven't been any huge changes, but it's been slowly coming together. We might not pass the eye test, by any means, but the underlying numbers indicate we might have a really talented team. Emphasis on the word team. Maybe the individual players might not be that great, but they all play defense pretty well, and collectively that's going to make a great defensive squad.


Put me down as cautiously optimistic. I think we clearly have made defense our primary focus. And I think it's going to lead us to the playoffs this season. Because it's the Wizards, I still have a difficult time predicting them to finish top 6 in the East, and I'm very skeptical about their ability to actually finish 7th or 8th, making the playoffs, but at the end of the day, the numbers don't lie, and history has shown us that if we put up the defensive numbers we've been post-trade, then we're going to have a damn good team.

[LyricalRico]

Taken from an older thread after Wittman was extended...

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff   Diff   Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   102.9    92.1   +10.8     7      4     
After Trade   93.2   100.2    98.9    +1.3    11     14   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9    -9.0     9     32   

That's a DRAMATIC improvement. And it wasn't just the 6 game winning streak at the end of the year against teams playing out the string. It was a third of a season (25 games) of sustained competence despite a lot of injuries. Nene missed half of the games yet we still posted a +1.3 point differential.

Add Okafor, Ariza, and Price, and basic logic would lead us to believe that we'll be even better on defense this season. The small sample size is really the only argument against us having a good defense right now. But here's the thing, over those 25 games (not THAT small of a sample size), our defense wasn't just good, it was ELITE. Like, potentially the best in the entire league good. And to think that our defense might get even better with our new additions... wow, I'm honestly excited.

The teams that lead the league in defensive efficiency stats year in and year out are also the best teams in the league. Just take a look at the rankings in the past few years.

http://hoopdata.com/teamdefstats.aspx

<snip>

Put me down as cautiously optimistic. I think we clearly have made defense our primary focus. And I think it's going to lead us to the playoffs this season. Because it's the Wizards, I still have a difficult time predicting them to finish top 6 in the East, and I'm very skeptical about their ability to actually finish 7th or 8th, making the playoffs, but at the end of the day, the numbers don't lie, and history has shown us that if we put up the defensive numbers we've been post-trade, then we're going to have a damn good team.

Great post. I'm just as excited, and can't wait to see them on the floor locking people down!

I think that if any other team had the same type of defensive improvement during the last third of the season and then also followed up by adding more solid defensive players, folks here would be fawning over them for "getting it" and "building a team the right way" and wishing the Wizards had done the same. There's probably just a hyper-critical element because of being so invested in the home team. But I'm confident folks will come around once they start playing games.

Go Wiz!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Taken from an older thread after Wittman was extended...

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff   Diff   Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   102.9    92.1   +10.8     7      4     
After Trade   93.2   100.2    98.9    +1.3    11     14   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9    -9.0     9     32   

That's a DRAMATIC improvement. And it wasn't just the 6 game winning streak at the end of the year against teams playing out the string. It was a third of a season (25 games) of sustained competence despite a lot of injuries. Nene missed half of the games yet we still posted a +1.3 point differential.

Add Okafor, Ariza, and Price, and basic logic would lead us to believe that we'll be even better on defense this season. The small sample size is really the only argument against us having a good defense right now. But here's the thing, over those 25 games (not THAT small of a sample size), our defense wasn't just good, it was ELITE. Like, potentially the best in the entire league good. And to think that our defense might get even better with our new additions... wow, I'm honestly excited.

The teams that lead the league in defensive efficiency stats year in and year out are also the best teams in the league. Just take a look at the rankings in the past few years.

http://hoopdata.com/teamdefstats.aspx

I'm finding it very difficult to ignore our post-trade defensive efficiency stats (the stats with Nene are actually a very small sample size, so while they may be legitimate, they're easier for me to ignore for the time being... or rather, to not put all of my faith in them... yet). Then add Okafor, Ariza, Price, and perhaps Beal as well, and I feel like it's safe to assume we'll be even better defensively. Then also of course consider that that's how our new team performed immediately after the trade was made, with little to no time to work as a team to implement our system. Now we have an entire offseason and training camp. This is going to be one of the best Wizards teams, defensively, of all time. And even if our offense is REALLY, REALLY bad, if we have an elite defense, history shows that we're going to win a lot of games, certainly enough to make the playoffs. If our offense improves to average or even better, then watch out, we have a contender on our hands.

It's hard to picture this team winning a LOT of games this season, just because we've been so bad and it seems like there haven't been any huge changes, but it's been slowly coming together. We might not pass the eye test, by any means, but the underlying numbers indicate we might have a really talented team. Emphasis on the word team. Maybe the individual players might not be that great, but they all play defense pretty well, and collectively that's going to make a great defensive squad.


Put me down as cautiously optimistic. I think we clearly have made defense our primary focus. And I think it's going to lead us to the playoffs this season. Because it's the Wizards, I still have a difficult time predicting them to finish top 6 in the East, and I'm very skeptical about their ability to actually finish 7th or 8th, making the playoffs, but at the end of the day, the numbers don't lie, and history has shown us that if we put up the defensive numbers we've been post-trade, then we're going to have a damn good team.

The only reason I have a hard time seeing the Wizards win a lot of games is because John Wall cannot shoot well. He will have the ball in his hands, but his jumper is weak. Combine that with Jordan Crawford being inefficient and I have a hard time seeing execution in crunch time. Who will seal games for the Wizards when the referees don't let them go to the line at the end?

If Wall comes back with a 30-35% three-point shot, then I think the Wizards WILL win a lot of games. No reason at all to expect that, but just saying if it happens that will change EVERYTHING. Spacing, cutting, open looks inside for the bigs, open shots for Beal, clean looks for Ariza--all these things will fall open like dominoes if Wall can knock down shots this season.

Of course, Nene and Okafor both IMO are going to need to be healthy and effective a majority of games, also, for the Wizards to win a lot of games.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Well as I've said before, I like the additions of Oak & Nene for this team at this time.

For a team that is still reeling from the Arenas fiasco, the reinventing of this team's image is important. I like the move away from the talented upside roster of charismatic knuckleheads to the workman hardhat approach. I'm excited about the "new" Wizards built on team, effort, and defense.

Look at the size, length and defensive potential of this roster anchored by Oakafor and Nene, with Seraphin and Booker as their understudys, and the length and savy of Vesely off the bench. Ariza or C.Singleton on the wing, Beal and Wall in the backcourt. Martin, Crawford, Mack, Price off the bench. Oak and Nene will defend, they will box out, they will rebound, they will pass out, they will set picks, they will be in the right place at the right time, and they will be leaders on this team. They will not be going behind the back or chucking 3 pointers or loafing back on defense. The addition of Don Newman to the coaching staff with the no-nonsense Wittman all bodes well for a team that will be built on a foundation of character, defense, and hard work. To me, that is a welcome change from the utter disaster this team has been for the past several years.

[DCZards]

If Wall comes back with a 30-35% three-point shot, then I think the Wizards WILL win a lot of games. No reason at all to expect that, but just saying if it happens that will change EVERYTHING. Spacing, cutting, open looks inside for the bigs, open shots for Beal, clean looks for Ariza--all these things will fall open like dominoes if Wall can knock down shots this season.

I agree that Wall's shooting will go a long ways toward determining how good the Zards are next season. But, while it would be sweet to see Wall knock down more threes, I'm much more interested in seeing an improved midrange shooting game from Wall. It's the ability to hit the 15-18 foot jumper that will force defenses to guard Wall rather than back off him and defend teammates that he might kick the ball to.

[Dat2U]

I think we'd have a good team if it was 1992. This team was made for the Pat Riley era. We've got that early to mid 90s type frontline with a bunch of bruisers in Oak, Nene, Booker & KSera. Back when they allowed handchecking, we could simply punish teams into submission with our physicality.

Problem is it's 2012 and I think EG is about 20 years late on being like the old style Knicks or Pacers (w/ the Davis bros.). The game is much more about quickness and skill now. Are we quick enough to stay with stretch 4s with Nene & Oak both in the game?

Secondly, how do we score? Who's the #1 scoring option? Or #2 or even #3? Is it our non-shooting PG in Wall? Is it our incredibly high volume but very inefficient SG in Crawford? Is it the 19 yr old rookie?

I think its a poorly built roster with a gaping hole at SF, young bigs whose development is being blocked by older veteran bigs who aren't much better and we still failed to address the #1 issue heading into the offseason, efficient scoring.

We'll be better no doubt, well simply because we were the second worst team in the league, and when you add $42 mil in guaranteed salary, chances are that their should be some improvement. But I don't know if 30-35 wins means were on the right path.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think we'd have a good team if it was 1992. This team was made for the Pat Riley era. We've got that early to mid 90s type frontline with a bunch of bruisers in Oak, Nene, Booker & KSera. Back when they allowed handchecking, we could simply punish teams into submission with our physicality.

Problem is it's 2012 and I think EG is about 20 years late on being like the old style Knicks or Pacers (w/ the Davis bros.). The game is much more about quickness and skill now. Are we quick enough to stay with stretch 4s with Nene & Oak both in the game?

Secondly, how do we score? Who's the #1 scoring option? Or #2 or even #3? Is it our non-shooting PG in Wall? Is it our incredibly high volume but very inefficient SG in Crawford? Is it the 19 yr old rookie?

I think its a poorly built roster with a gaping hole at SF, young bigs whose development is being blocked by older veteran bigs who aren't much better and we still failed to address the #1 issue heading into the offseason, efficient scoring.

We'll be better no doubt, well simply because we were the second worst team in the league, and when you add $42 mil in guaranteed salary, chances are that their should be some improvement. But I don't know if 30-35 wins means were on the right path.

Ha this post made me laugh, because it's true. This team totally reminds me of a team from that era.

But you know, some things are tried and true. I see the pattern to be following the Bulls, with the pg as the focal point and defense. I'm looking forward to watching a couple crafty vets who are willing bang in Oak and Nene. I used to love watching the Beef Bros, and Wes before that, and Moses afterwards. And I love the idea of bringing in Seraphin and Booker off the bench to dish out more punishment vs the 2nd strings.

[nate33]

Secondly, how do we score? Who's the #1 scoring option? Or #2 or even #3? Is it our non-shooting PG in Wall? Is it our incredibly high volume but very inefficient SG in Crawford? Is it the 19 yr old rookie?

Nene is our number one option. After that, it's John Wall running the pick and roll. After that, it's Beal coming off screens.

We won't be a very good scoring team, but it's not like we're Charlotte. And we'll play good D.

[TGW]

Totally agree with Dat. I don't foresee many nights where this team scores over 95 points in a game, sadly enough. It's going to be ugly.

[DCZards]

After watching the piss poor defense of the high-scoring Arenas-Jamison-Butler teams, I look forward to watching a tough, physical, defensive-minded Wizard team. Yes, scoring, especially from the perimeter, is going to be a struggle. But the good news is that the Zards have the most offensively versatile rookie in the league, IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No, not IMO, DCZ. Beal is really good for 19 years old, but I think there are A BUNCH of better and more versatile scorers among rookies.

John Jenkins is a far better shooter. Damian Lillard is more explosive, quicker, and a better shooter. Terrence Ross is very inconsistent, but I think he's much more athletic finishing the ball at the rim. Beal's strength will help a lot, but Ross is a longer and I think going to be a better scorer initially. The most offensively versatile rookie might be a big man. Donatas Motiejunas will score. Terrence Jones will score a lot. The best scorer might be Andrew Nicholson. The best pure shooter, midrange, will probably be Jeremy Lamb.

I like Beal, but I think MKG is going to score more points than Bradley Beal, just on the strength of his athleticism, size, and his ability to finish in transition. Jenkins is always, and I mean always, going to be a better shooter than Beal. My dark horse, surprise scorer: Will Barton. He's going to be a very versatile player.

Beal is special because he's the youngest of all these players, DCZ, aside from MKG. That said, I don't think Brad Beal is going to take the league by storm at all. Damian Lillard is going to. He and Nicholson are the two players I expect will be impact scorers from day one in the NBA. John Henson will likely be a defensive stud, and a reliable scorer, too. I expect Anthony Davis will score a ton right away--at least 15 ppg.

The good news is I think in 3 years, Beal will be terrific. I am NOT counting on him to be a great scorer next season by any means.

[DCZards]

There are a lot of potentially great scorers on your list, CCJ. And I won't argue that guys like Jenkins and D. Lamb are probably better shooters than Beal, at least at this point. But I'll stick by my prediction that Beal will quickly show that he is the better all-around offensive player...and most likely one of the best defensive players among the guards on your list.

[Dat2U]

How I look in the roster in terms of being a legit contender:

Code: Select all

Pos Starter      2nd string/rotation     3rd string/non-rotation 
PG John Wall       ............          A.J. Price & Shelvin Mack
SG Bradley Beal    ............          Jordan Crawford
SF ...........     Trevor Ariza          Cartier Martin & Chris Singleton
PF Nene            Trevor Booker         Jan Vesely
CE ...........     Kevin Seraphin & Emeka Okafor

Were probably 3 players away from legitimately contending. I like Nene as a complementary big. Same with KSera and Okafor. We've got great depth up front but outside of Vesely there isn't a lot of length and the consistently ability to hit a jumper is always in question. I could see Nene, KSera or Okafor starting for a contender, but not alongside each other.

Ariza would be a solid 20 minute backup, if he wasn't getting paid $7 mil per and having to start, I might feel better about his acquisition. Also, it would be nice if he wasn't so inefficient. Suffice it to say the team lacks a legit #1 option. An all-star quality SF that can fill it up would be nice.

Backup PG isn't as big of a need as having an aggressive 3rd guard off the bench that a team can run an offense through when your top scoring options need a break. JCraw failed miserably in this role last season. I honestly don't want him in the rotation this year. Lou Williams, Jason Terry and James Harden are perfect examples of big a role these guys can play in a team's success.

[Ruzious]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

[fishercob]

I think we'd have a good team if it was 1992. This team was made for the Pat Riley era. We've got that early to mid 90s type frontline with a bunch of bruisers in Oak, Nene, Booker & KSera. Back when they allowed handchecking, we could simply punish teams into submission with our physicality.

Problem is it's 2012 and I think EG is about 20 years late on being like the old style Knicks or Pacers (w/ the Davis bros.). The game is much more about quickness and skill now. Are we quick enough to stay with stretch 4s with Nene & Oak both in the game?

Secondly, how do we score? Who's the #1 scoring option? Or #2 or even #3? Is it our non-shooting PG in Wall? Is it our incredibly high volume but very inefficient SG in Crawford? Is it the 19 yr old rookie?

I think its a poorly built roster with a gaping hole at SF, young bigs whose development is being blocked by older veteran bigs who aren't much better and we still failed to address the #1 issue heading into the offseason, efficient scoring.

We'll be better no doubt, well simply because we were the second worst team in the league, and when you add $42 mil in guaranteed salary, chances are that their should be some improvement. But I don't know if 30-35 wins means were on the right path.

Ha this post made me laugh, because it's true. This team totally reminds me of a team from that era.

But you know, some things are tried and true. I see the pattern to be following the Bulls, with the pg as the focal point and defense. I'm looking forward to watching a couple crafty vets who are willing bang in Oak and Nene. I used to love watching the Beef Bros, and Wes before that, and Moses afterwards. And I love the idea of bringing in Seraphin and Booker off the bench to dish out more punishment vs the 2nd strings.

The Bulls parallel occurred to me just yesterday too.

That team is built around defense, physicality, depth -- especially up front -- and athleticism. Obviously Rose is the engine of the offense. The still struggle to shoot for the outside. We're not a perfect comparison player for player, but the overall blueprint looks the same.

The Wiz aren't going to win 62 games this year unless Wall wins the MVP like Rose did two years ago.

But the Bulls did go 41-41 in each of Rose's first two years, and then when Rose took The Leap, so did the team. The year before the 62-win season (so, 09-10) the Bulls were 11th in DRtg and 27th in Ortg and finished .500. Don't those numbers or somewhere close to them seem attainable?

It's all about our young backcourt. If they become true stars, we can grow into contenders.

[nate33]

How I look in the roster in terms of being a legit contender:

Code: Select all

Pos Starter      2nd string/rotation     3rd string/non-rotation 
PG John Wall       ............          A.J. Price & Shelvin Mack
SG Bradley Beal    ............          Jordan Crawford
SF ...........     Trevor Ariza          Cartier Martin & Chris Singleton
PF Nene            Trevor Booker         Jan Vesely
CE ...........     Kevin Seraphin & Emeka Okafor

Were probably 3 players away from legitimately contending. I like Nene as a complementary big. Same with KSera and Okafor.

Nene is a better big man than anybody that OKC or Chicago has. Okafor and Seraphin (assuming some improvement with experience) are as good or better than the 2nd best big on OKC, Chicago, Miami, San Antonio or Boston. There is hope that Vesely pans out to be a good player as well. Basically, our bigs will look a lot better if Wall turns out to be a superstar rather than a modestly above-average PG. If Wall isn't the real deal, then we don't really have a shot at contention.

I agree that we have a gaping hole at SF. If Beal turns out to be a first class scorer, then we won't need a top tier talent to fill the SF spot. A quality 3&D role player will suffice. Fortunately, those types of guys are available in the middle of the draft where we're likely to pick in the upcoming years.

I also agree that we have a hole at backup combo guard, but that type of player can be found pretty easily in free agency when the time comes. That time isn't now.

[fugop]

Nene's 2011-2012 stats compared to: Bosh, Boozer, Ibaka, Noah, Stoudemire.

http://bkref.com/tiny/ct7mW

He'd probably have the best overall statistical line were it not for turnovers.

[payitforward]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

Can't argue w/ that at all if what you mean is "no individual is likely...".

But if you mean it's unlikely that any rookie other than Anthony Davis will be a difference-maker this year, a very different statement, I'm pretty sure you will turn out to be wrong. There will be 2 or 3 I think.

[Ruzious]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

Can't argue w/ that at all if what you mean is "no individual is likely...".

But if you mean it's unlikely that any rookie other than Anthony Davis will be a difference-maker this year, a very different statement, I'm pretty sure you will turn out to be wrong. There will be 2 or 3 I think.

Correct - I should have worded it "no individual is likely...". Say, you have 60 lottery tickets, but only 2 are winners. Each of the tickets by themselves is not likely a winner, but in the end 2 will be winners - possibly 3 if Ernst & Young is auditing.

[Dat2U]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

I'd be willing to bet MKG has something to say about that.