Summer 2012 Free Agents Thread - Part II

[TGW]

I know they're better connected than anyone on this board. I know they have access to more information than we do. I also know that all those connections and all that access got them four consecutive AWFUL seasons.

They've earned second guessing by being wrong so often despite all those connections and all that access.

I give the FO credit for dumping some of the guys who were the cornerstones of the team during those awful seasons---Blatche, Young and McGee. And picking up guys I consider quality vets who will help the team on and off the floor---Nene, Ariza and Okafor.

Why should he get credit? Just a year ago, Ernie Grunfeld was praising his "young core" and how they would improve.

Here's just some of the horsesh*t coming from Gurnfled just a year ago:

“Andray played with a lot of injuries [last season], but he still put up nice numbers,” Grunfeld said. “And when he was in there, we were still a pretty effective team, especially in that 10-, 12-game stretch at the end of the season. “He did some good things when he really came back healthy. But, yeah, we expect progress from him. We think . . . I know he’s gonna have a good season. I know he’s gonna have a better season than he’s had in the past.”

“We’ll be real satisfied if JaVale shows as much improvement from last year to this year as he did from the previous year to last year,” Grunfeld said. “People sometimes forget that JaVale is only 23.

“He’s the No. 2 shot-blocker in the league. He averaged eight rebounds a game, and he did show improvement. Did he make some mistakes? Of course, he did. He did just like any young player. But we think JaVale has made good progress and we expect more progress this year.”

So the FO should get credit for dumping guys he wanted to build around? Yea ok.

[DCZards]

^^^^
That's GM speak, TGW. What did you expect EG to say: "These guys are immature, terrible players and I can't wait to trade them."

[TGW]

^^^^

That's GM speak, TGW. What did you expect EG to say: "These guys are immature, terrible players and I can't wait to trade them."

Actions speak louder than words. He went into the season with both players, despite them being immature (in McGee's case) and lazy (Blatche's case) buffoons. I have no doubt that he meant what he said.

[Kanyewest]

I know they're better connected than anyone on this board. I know they have access to more information than we do. I also know that all those connections and all that access got them four consecutive AWFUL seasons.

They've earned second guessing by being wrong so often despite all those connections and all that access.

I give the FO credit for dumping some of the guys who were the cornerstones of the team during those awful seasons---Blatche, Young and McGee. And picking up guys I consider quality vets who will help the team on and off the floor---Nene, Ariza and Okafor.

Why should he get credit? Just a year ago, Ernie Grunfeld was praising his "young core" and how they would improve.

Here's just some of the horsesh*t coming from Gurnfled just a year ago:

“Andray played with a lot of injuries [last season], but he still put up nice numbers,” Grunfeld said. “And when he was in there, we were still a pretty effective team, especially in that 10-, 12-game stretch at the end of the season. “He did some good things when he really came back healthy. But, yeah, we expect progress from him. We think . . . I know he’s gonna have a good season. I know he’s gonna have a better season than he’s had in the past.”

“We’ll be real satisfied if JaVale shows as much improvement from last year to this year as he did from the previous year to last year,” Grunfeld said. “People sometimes forget that JaVale is only 23.

“He’s the No. 2 shot-blocker in the league. He averaged eight rebounds a game, and he did show improvement. Did he make some mistakes? Of course, he did. He did just like any young player. But we think JaVale has made good progress and we expect more progress this year.”

So the FO should get credit for dumping guys he wanted to build around? Yea ok.

While I think Blatche turned out to be a major dissapointment, I think EG did a good job getting value from the Young and McGee picks in those drafts. I think the Wizard didn't feel like giving contracts to those players because those pieces didn't really fit well with John Wall.

[NortheastWiz]

Barbosa Anyone??

[Ruzious]

Barbosa Anyone??

He looked really good in the Olympics, but he's a guy who's relied on his speed, and he's at the point where he's likely losing a step, and his scoring efficiency has taken a dive the last couple of seasons - compared to his prime. They could - and have - done considerably worse (cough*Crawford*cough) than Barbosa.

[Kanyewest]

I'm sorry, but I see nothing wrong with pursuing Childress, Meeks, and Tolliver for the 14th and 15ths spots on our roster!

Why are we going after guys to be the 14th and 15th spots on our roster? Do we have enough talent that we can just fill in down at the end of the pine?

You *cannot* succeed in this league without having some unexpected, lucky breaks -- the kind that e.g. Jae Crowder or Will Barton or Kyle O'Quinn might provide. "Might" is the key word. Why do you sign a proven non-performer, which is what A.J. Price is -- a guy with zero upside. Zilch.

This is not a good team, jive. It's a bad team. This year we're going to win what 30-33 games?

In 3 years, with the #1 pick in the draft, the #6 pick in the draft, the #3 pick in the draft, and a zillion ways to add other young talent, Ernie will have taken us from 20+ wins to 30+ wins.

You like this, jive? This is the way to build a team?

I agree. What's strange to me is how this front office can have a team that won 30% of its games last season -- a 4th straight season of similar suckitude -- and decide it doesn't need to add as many good players as possible.

They should not be scraping the bottom of the barrel for guys like AJ Price and Anthony Tolliver, nor should they be doing draft & stash with the 32nd pick in the draft. They should be collecting guys who give them multiple chances at those "unexpected, lucky breaks."

So yeah, you take a guy at 32 who's a mature, hard-working, high-energy leader, whose college production compares favorably with Carmelo (Crowder). Maybe he ends up "just" a 12-18 minute rotation guy (which would be okay for a 2nd round pick). But, maybe he ends up a lot better than that, especially with the kind of opportunity for playing time he'd get in Washington.

It's bizarre to me that this front office could think they have enough talent.

The Wizards believe that Santoronsky had the best value. Perhaps Santoronsky would have gone higher if their were no contractual obligations and people who speculate that he would have been available at 46 are speculating as well. I remember one ESPN analyst (I believe it was Ford) well before the draft claiming that Santoronsky was the best international player or sleeper he's seen for this draft. I believe that the Wizards are rebuilding so it makes sense to draft and stash and pick the best player available, even if he's not available immediately.

Of course, time will tell if Satoronsky will work out because we fans will not see him play and he still has a lot to work on in his summer league. I would say he is a solid passer, has a decent handle, and a good cutter. He still needs to work on limiting his turnovers and improving his jump shot and defense but he doesn't look like a complete stiff.

EG has a track record of getting guys with minimum contracts who play significantly better than their track record in prior years. For instance Roger Mason was not an effective player in Chicago and Toronto before becoming a 40% 3 point shooter in Washington. DeShawn Stevenson didn't show 3 point range based on his numbers in Orlando but improved his TS% his first year with Washington and his 3 point shooting. Even someone like Earl Boykins who I was against signing showed significant from his numbers during his last team in the NBA. Shaun Livingston posted career numbers in Washington and was a big reason why Andray Blatche got that contract that he got. So maybe the Wizards are attempting to get their lucky breaks in this way.

[closg00]

^^^^

That's GM speak, TGW. What did you expect EG to say: "These guys are immature, terrible players and I can't wait to trade them."

Actions speak louder than words. He went into the season with both players, despite them being immature (in McGee's case) and lazy (Blatche's case) buffoons. I have no doubt that he meant what he said.

....and remember this? Ernie was panicking again and wanted to lock-up Nick.

That blame game is the most startling thing about this tenure.  There are all the behind the scenes stories – how he came into an offseason meeting this year and declared they had to give Nick Young a full mid-level exception, to the bewilderment of his staff.  How JaVale McGee came and asked him for a big man coach, and Grunfeld said he could have one if he paid for it himself.  The many times Grunfeld went behind Eddie Jordan or Flip Saunders back when they tried to reign in Grunfeld’s pets Arenas and Blatche.  The times you’d watch players f***ing around at practice despite lengthy losing streaks, and Grunfeld standing there f***ing around the same way.[/quote]
http://jayglassie.com/2012/04/24/the-last-straw/

[Ruzious]

Why are we going after guys to be the 14th and 15th spots on our roster? Do we have enough talent that we can just fill in down at the end of the pine?

You *cannot* succeed in this league without having some unexpected, lucky breaks -- the kind that e.g. Jae Crowder or Will Barton or Kyle O'Quinn might provide. "Might" is the key word. Why do you sign a proven non-performer, which is what A.J. Price is -- a guy with zero upside. Zilch.

This is not a good team, jive. It's a bad team. This year we're going to win what 30-33 games?

In 3 years, with the #1 pick in the draft, the #6 pick in the draft, the #3 pick in the draft, and a zillion ways to add other young talent, Ernie will have taken us from 20+ wins to 30+ wins.

You like this, jive? This is the way to build a team?

I agree. What's strange to me is how this front office can have a team that won 30% of its games last season -- a 4th straight season of similar suckitude -- and decide it doesn't need to add as many good players as possible.

They should not be scraping the bottom of the barrel for guys like AJ Price and Anthony Tolliver, nor should they be doing draft & stash with the 32nd pick in the draft. They should be collecting guys who give them multiple chances at those "unexpected, lucky breaks."

So yeah, you take a guy at 32 who's a mature, hard-working, high-energy leader, whose college production compares favorably with Carmelo (Crowder). Maybe he ends up "just" a 12-18 minute rotation guy (which would be okay for a 2nd round pick). But, maybe he ends up a lot better than that, especially with the kind of opportunity for playing time he'd get in Washington.

It's bizarre to me that this front office could think they have enough talent.

The Wizards believe that Santoronsky had the best value. Perhaps Santoronsky would have gone higher if their were no contractual obligations and people who speculate that he would have been available at 46 are speculating as well. I remember one ESPN analyst (I believe it was Ford) well before the draft claiming that Santoronsky was the best international player or sleeper he's seen for this draft. I believe that the Wizards are rebuilding so it makes sense to draft and stash and pick the best player available, even if he's not available immediately.

Of course, time will tell if Satoronsky will work out because we fans will not see him play and he still has a lot to work on in his summer league. I would say he is a solid passer, has a decent handle, and a good cutter. He still needs to work on limiting his turnovers and improving his jump shot and defense but he doesn't look like a complete stiff.

EG has a track record of getting guys with minimum contracts who play significantly better than their track record in prior years. For instance Roger Mason was not an effective player in Chicago and Toronto before becoming a 40% 3 point shooter in Washington. DeShawn Stevenson didn't show 3 point range based on his numbers in Orlando but improved his TS% his first year with Washington and his 3 point shooting. Even someone like Earl Boykins who I was against signing showed significant from his numbers during his last team in the NBA. Shaun Livingston posted career numbers in Washington and was a big reason why Andray Blatche got that contract that he got. So maybe the Wizards are attempting to get their lucky breaks in this way.

You shake an NBA waiverwire tree, and 25 Roger Masons and Earl Boykins' fall off it. Any GM can find players like that. Any kid with a $2 fantasy basketball magazine could find players like that.

I'm sure EG saw something in Satoransky. Otherwise he wouldn't have picked him. But the reality is - he had absolutely terrible stats in Europe, he doesn't have the quickness to be a potential PG in the NBA, so he's basically a shooting guard prospect who can't shoot, isn't particularly athletic for the NBA, and doesn't seem to have any skills that stand out. Ooh, he can make a running left-handed layup and has "court presence" - sign him up! Imo, he's probably never going to play in the NBA. <How dare I state an opinion as if I think I'm smarter than a professionile genrul manger!> If he ever does, you can knock me over with a feather.

[jivelikenice]

^Ruz, I have no issue with people thinking management makes bad decisions, and professionals make mistakes all the time. If you think Satoransky was a bad pick, then that's your opinion and you might be right. My issue is simply when people insist that a player is trash and have determined their fate before they've even had a chance. There's a difference between saying you disagree with the Satoransky pick versus acting as though the the verdict is out and Ernie has already made a mistake. People wrote off Seraphin as "another Ernie Euro mistake" after yr 1, and just 1 yr later he's being looked at as a potential building block. Some ppl insisted that Vesely is never going to learn to shoot, then you see him knock down a bunch of jumpers in SL. Some ppl insisted that MKG had a broken shot and it would only get marginally better. Just 1 month later he shot 7-12 and made his lone 3 pt attempt in his only SL game. That's the frustration. There's a difference between analysis based opinions and acting as though the verdict is already in. Take Beal as an example. There was debate on the board after SL because based on a 5 game sample size for a 19 yr old, people were already calling the pick a mistake and saying his upside was only marginal. Not that I'm saying you're guilty of that Ruz, but I just got bored at work and had a few minutes to rant;)

[Ruzious]

I like your posts, jive. I think when people make those strong opinions, they're basing them on what they've seen, and realize things change over time - and a player they don't like now could become good in the future. Nobody can see into the future or borrow the time machine in my parents' basement, so we can only base our current opinion of a pick on what we know and what you believe at the time.

As long as we give the reasons for those opinions, we know where people are coming from, and everyone benefits. It's all good. A win win, or sometimes a whine whine.

[hands11]

Hands, how are they going to reach your stage 3 next offseason when they won't have any cap space - due to the Lewis/Okariza trade?

I guess they would only be able to attract marginally good FAs at that point. They will either keep one or both because they are playing well or they will trade one or both. I think I said the end of this year should put them at the end of Stage 2.

Also, I guess FA wouldn't be a good way to describe what I meant as Stage 3. It would include deals for RFAs. You know, big names that want to get moved. That market of player in general in all the ways it can happen. You know what I mean.

I know it means the Lewis trade made it so they most likely won't be able to reach stage 3 as you originally explained it. That's the major point most of us have been making in criticising the trade. That trade severely damaged the plan you spelled out.

Sure they can. I just explained how and you quoted it. They will either use one or both of them in a trade or keep them for the term of their contracts and then have the cap space.

[hands11]

^^^^

That's GM speak, TGW. What did you expect EG to say: "These guys are immature, terrible players and I can't wait to trade them."

Actions speak louder than words. He went into the season with both players, despite them being immature (in McGee's case) and lazy (Blatche's case) buffoons. I have no doubt that he meant what he said.

Come on. Of course he is going to say that going into the season. He has to show support for his players that he wants to see improve to keep or move. In McGee's case, they went in with him and exited with Nene. We saw how much that helped. A ton.

As for Dray, that didn't work out. Can't win them all. He tried to move him but no takers. So you do the best you can...which they did. Dray was a good find for a 2nd rounder but his personality capped his potential.

As for what EG did while Abe was owner...well you'll know what I have to say about that. Owners sign the checks and they dictate the direction the franchise is headed... contracts, draft pick usage, etc. Ted was clear in what he wanted to do with the picks and what his time frame for a rebuild. Abe was also clear in what he wanted and how he wanted the front office run.

EG with Ted is much better then EG with Abe. I think this is no debate there.

Apples and rotten tomato's from what I see.

I will never tag EG with

- The Gil contract or AJs extension
- The EFJ contract extension before he even entered the final contract year.
- Trading away the number 5 pick because they had to win now before Abe died.

The one I will tag him with was the Dray extension. I'm pretty sure that was something he wanted to do. And at the time, it seemed like a reasonable risk.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I feel reading the posts alot of unrest lies in the belief that the Wizards have abandoned the youth movement with the acquisitions of Nene, Ariza, Okafor.

I'm trying to look at it this way. We still have alot of young players, as Ted has pointed out, looking at Wall, the 19 yr old Beal, Crawford, Mack, Singleton, Vesely, Booker, Seraphin. As far as dumping out Blatche, Young & McGee, I think it's more of they have chosen Booker and Vesely over Blatche, they have chosen Crawford over Young (and now Beal), and they chose Seraphin over McGee.

And although he's not the player I would have chosen (D.Lamb), Satoransky is another young asset.

And with the 8 listed young players they are seemingly building around and moving forward with, it benefits them to be on a team with a foundation of quality, skilled and intelligent vets like Nene, Ariza and Okafor.

After this season, they will add another 1st round draft pick, Ariza/Okafor will become expiring and trade-able contracts, and the young players they currently have will have a year of good coaching (Wittman/Newman/Cassell), playing with good vets, and hopefully actually experiencing some on the court success.

[LyricalRico]

After this season, they will add another 1st round draft pick, Ariza/Okafor will become expiring and trade-able contracts, and the young players they currently have will have a year of good coaching (Wittman/Newman/Cassell), playing with good vets, and hopefully actually experiencing some on the court success.

Bingo. Last year was the final step backwards, and now the team is taking steps forward. Maybe not the leap forward that many here wanted (and also rarely ever happens), but still a substantive step forward IMO. One that they can hopefully capitalize on in 2013 with large expiring contracts, or in 2014 with good flexibility.

[Ruzious]

I guess they would only be able to attract marginally good FAs at that point. They will either keep one or both because they are playing well or they will trade one or both. I think I said the end of this year should put them at the end of Stage 2.

Also, I guess FA wouldn't be a good way to describe what I meant as Stage 3. It would include deals for RFAs. You know, big names that want to get moved. That market of player in general in all the ways it can happen. You know what I mean.

I know it means the Lewis trade made it so they most likely won't be able to reach stage 3 as you originally explained it. That's the major point most of us have been making in criticising the trade. That trade severely damaged the plan you spelled out.

Sure they can. I just explained how and you quoted it. They will either use one or both of them in a trade or keep them for the term of their contracts and then have the cap space.

And you're STILL most likely wrong. Having pure cap space would make it FAR easier to reach your stage 3. Right now, nobody would likely give the Wiz anything but junk and rejects for Okafor and Ariza. That may or may not change, but to just assume out of hand that it will is ridiculous, imo.

[hands11]

Ruz

What exactly are you saying I am wrong about ?

[Ruzious]

Ruz

What exactly are you saying I am wrong about ?

Are you for real? Re-read my post above yours.

[hands11]

Ruz

What exactly are you saying I am wrong about ?

Are you for real? Re-read my post above yours.

I was thinking the same things about you which is why I asked. This is nothing about what you wrote that would make what I wrote wrong. You are only commenting on how hard it would be for them to reach stage 3 the following year with "most likely" statements.

If you go back and read me original post on the topic, nothing about what you are saying would make what I wrote wrong. They are at the beginning at stage 2. I said I would consider it a success if they finish the year at the end of stage 2 ready to go to stage 3. Pure clear cap space is on way to get FA. Using expiring contracts is another. Of course pure cap space would add flexibility. Maybe they don't reach stage 3 until the following year.

[Ruzious]

Ruz

What exactly are you saying I am wrong about ?

Are you for real? Re-read my post above yours.

I was thinking the same things about you which is why I asked. This is nothing about what you wrote that would make what I wrote wrong. You are only commenting on how hard it would be for them to reach stage 3 the following year with "most likely" statements.

If you go back and read me original post on the topic, nothing about what you are saying would make what I wrote wrong. They are at the beginning at stage 2. I said I would consider it a success if they finish the year at the end of stage 2 ready to go to stage 3. Pure clear cap space is on way to get FA. Using expiring contracts is another. Of course pure cap space would add flexibility. Maybe they don't reach stage 3 until the following year.

Again, most likely... they are stuck with Okafor's and Ariza's contracts for 2 years - and then they have to pay Wall. I see now you want to postpone stage 3 for a year and wait till the 2014-2015 season to attract free agents. By then, you'll almost certainly come up with another excuse to give them more time to wait... be patient... shiney... happy... "everything's going to be fine if you just give them a chance. C'mawn, it's only year 5 of the rebuild... which followed 7 years of futility. EG inherited this mess. It takes time. You have to blow it up and start it up again 5 times before you can fix something."