Grade The Wizards Off-Season

[Nivek]

I've always been a big fan of Brand--hails from Peekskill, NY where I have plenty of family. I would have been all over Brand--5-6 years ago.

I don't agree that the 2012 version of Brand (at age 33) is better than the 2012 version of Okafor (at age 30). In Okafor, I believe the Wizards got a tougher, more defensive-minded player than Brand. As for the difference in money, I personally don't get hung up on that since it may just be for one-year--two at the most.

5-6 years ago, Brand wouldn't have been a bargain. He's not elite anymore, but he's better than Okafor. Still.

And I'm definitely not worried about missing out on a decent-but-nothing-special player like Danny Green (I prefer to give those minutes to C. Singleton, anyway) or the one-dimensionsal Lou Williams, who Jordan Crawford may turn out to be as good or better than.

The likelihood of Crawford being as good or better than Lou Williams is so minuscule that it's barely worth discussion.

[TGW]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

I've always been a big fan of Brand--hails from Peekskill, NY where I have plenty of family. I would have been all over Brand--5-6 years ago.

I don't agree that the 2012 version of Brand (at age 33) is better than the 2012 version of Okafor (at age 30). In Okafor, I believe the Wizards got a tougher, more defensive-minded player than Brand. As for the difference in money, I personally don't get hung up on that since it may just be for one-year--two at the most.

And I'm definitely not worried about missing out on a decent-but-nothing-special player like Danny Green (I prefer to give those minutes to C. Singleton, anyway) or the one-dimensionsal Lou Williams, who Jordan Crawford may turn out to be as good or better than.

Zards, I admire your optimism, but your opinions are based on hope, not reality. Reality says Brand is a better defender than Okafor. Opponent PER, blocks per 36, +/-...I was trying to find one stat that suggests that Okafor is better than Brand defensively, and I can't find one (maybe Nate or Nivek can fill in the blanks there). Not only that, Brand was defending a wider range of players last season, and while he didn't fare well defensively against power forwards, he was head and shoulders better than Okafor in defending centers. You seem to be wrapped up in Okafor's reputation, and not his actual effect on the court.

With all that being said, even if we consider them as equals, one is being paid pennies next year, and the other is being paid like a superstar. You can put aside contracts if you want, but a smart GM always keeps his options open. A poor GM puts all his eggs in one basket. If Okafor is a complete bust next season, he is untradeable and dead weight for 2 seasons. If Brand is a bust next season, he can be cut or traded with very little to no effect on the cap. Nivek is absolutely correct in his conclusions, and the plan he laid out is a much more effective, efficient way of putting a team together.

By the way, Crawford has MILES TO GO to come even close to being as good as Lou Williams. That's how bad Crawford is.

[Nivek]

In terms of defensive measurements, the stats would suggest Brand and Okafor had similar defensive effects. Over the past 3 seasons, Philly has been about 2 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Brand on the court; New Orleans about 1.8 points better. Counterpart numbers are similar. Okafor is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

Too bad you're not the Wizards GM. They would be much, much, much better off, Kevin.

[payitforward]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

Well, for me it's O'Quinn rather than Denmon, and it's Landry Fields instead of Danny Green. And I'm not as much of a Lou Williams fan as you are (eFG% too low for my taste). But we're pretty close all the same. Could add Rush to that set of available, efficient and productive wings.

It's pretty simple. Ernie was afraid to lose in competition for guys like Fields/Green/Rush. And he didn't have the guts to wait to see what talent came through the amnesty waiver process.

Somehow, when he adds Tolliver and Childress, I just don't think my view will be different.

[DCZards]

Okafor is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.

Both of which can lead to easy fast break points for Wall & Co.

[DCZards]

It's pretty simple. Ernie was afraid to lose in competition for guys like Fields/Green/Rush. And he didn't have the guts to wait to see what talent came through the amnesty waiver process.

And just how many other GMs blew it by not going hard after Fields/Green/Rush? Pretty much all of them. That should tell you something about the demand for these players.

[Ed Wood]

It's pretty simple. Ernie was afraid to lose in competition for guys like Fields/Green/Rush. And he didn't have the guts to wait to see what talent came through the amnesty waiver process.

And just how many other GMs blew it by not going hard after Fields/Green/Rush? Pretty much all of them. That should tell you something about the desirability of these players.

I don't really think that any of the three aforementioned wings is a world beater, or even much above average (except potentially Fields) but all offer a very handy assortment of skills at a very reasonable (well two out of three ain't bad) price. But what I actually want to say is that, though if I remember you're pretty fond of it, I don't think a simple appeal to authority has much traction here and also that by your own standard every single player the Wizards have picked up this off season (outside the draft) is absolutely abysmal.

[badinage]

No guarantee those moves would've meant playoffs.

No guarantee the moves they made mean playoffs.

My preferred offseason would have been to trade anyone other than Wall for Dwight Howard. I think that team would've had a very bright future.

I was trying to stay in the realm of reality. I guess if we're going to be silly about it, my preferred offseason would have been to trade for Lebron and clone Kareem to play center.

Didn't happen. I choose not to carp that it didn't happen, and that this team has no vision, and that it's the same thing year after year. There are many routes to success. If I'm going to be a fan, I choose to be hopeful about this rebuild -- until the time comes, if it comes, that management has not done the right thing. It's paralytic, at least it is for me, to root for a team and not, um, actually root. The Germans must have a word for that.

I HOPE management has done the right thing. I HOPE I'm wrong. My analysis says they're on the wrong course. That may make me less of a fan in your eyes, but if I try real hard I might be able to shoulder that burden.

Denmon and Crowder. Yeah, I guess. That was the board's consensus. But 2nd rounders don't often bear fruit. And it's very rare you get a difference-maker. Would I have liked to have had them? Probably.

Yeah -- everyone here knows 2nd rounders often don't bear fruit. I'd have liked to take a shot with these guys.

Danny Green. One of these guys, these Spurs guys, who looks better playing with great players and in a great structure. You say you would have outbid the Spurs for him. I don't think the Spurs would have allowed themselves to be outbid. But ok. So let's say 6 million a year for DANNY GREEN.

Actually, the Spurs regularly let themselves get outbid on guys. It w

I think it's possible Lou Williams might've come here. Possible. Not likely. But possible. IF we had ponied up 8 million. 8 million for a shot-jacker who isn't "efficient" and doesn't play D.

That's 14 million for two very incomplete players.

A lot of money.

And it wouldn't have come off the books in two years, I can tell you that.

It wouldn't have cost that much for Green and Williams. Williams signed for 3 years at the MLE. Green signed for $4 million per season. Both were worth considerably more than they got. Wiz probably could have had both for $10-11 million.

And yeah, I'd have rather paid $14 million a season for those two than $20.8 million this season and $22.3 million next year for two incomplete players who aren't getting any better.

And Williams is efficient and high usage.

As for Brand, he might've been had cheap, true. But he plays the same position as THREE players. And he's a shell of himself.

Shell or not, he was good last season. Well above average. Better than Okafor. Better than Okafor was 2 years ago.

These moves would've saved some caproom for next year. To spend on what? Not a max contract player, certainly. And none is going to be available -- or I should say, no one who is available is going to be worth one. So a rotation player or maybe slightly better. Not a difference maker. And maybe the chance of absorbing a contract in a trade: another rotation player.

Hmm, maybe the team could have used that cap space in a trade.

I don't see how this is so superior to what the team did. I don't even see how this is better than what the team did. I honestly don't.

I could go through the numbers and make a case, but somehow I think it would be wasted effort.

Agree to disagree, I guess.

Re: Dwight Howard and staying "in the realm of reality" -- do you think the Magic got back a package that was even halfway decent? What a disaster of a deal. The holdup may have been their not wanting to trade within the division; I just read Danny Ferry talking about Orlando's reluctance to work a trade with Atlanta.

As for signing Danny Green and Lou Williams: I don't think Green's the kind of player we ought to have pursued at this point; maybe in a couple of years, when we have a structure and a real core. But I also just can't see him coming here. I also don't think Lou Williams would've come here. Atlanta is a good team, and Williams grew up in Georgia.

(Another complication to WIlliams signing here is Jordan Crawford. Think what you will, he's still on the roster. We would've had to trade him, and that sort of thing means selling unwisely. And we also just drafted a 2 in Beal, hoping he'll be a star.)

And how can you justify spending 14 million on role players when the saying goes that teams kill themselves by spending too much on players who surround a core? You seem to suggest that both will continue to get better. I don't see that. I think Williams already experienced his leap. And Green is what he is.

In an earlier post, you said that Brand and Okafor posted similar defensive numbers, and that Okafor was a better rebounder and shot-blocker. I'm not saying that I think he's the greatest addition in the world, but adding that to what we already have in Nene and Seraphin -- and adding his toughness -- is not nothing. And if we can sell high after a year, that's not nothing either.

I wish the salaries for both were less. A lot less. But I look around and see what average players are commanding in free agency -- and this trade is, as Leonsis has said several times, a variant of a free
agent nab -- and it's ridiculous. Afflalo got, what, 8 million? And big men are always expensive.

I don't think Grunfeld made a genius move. But I think it was a pretty good move.

What frustrates me -- and I say this more as an "in general" thing -- is that it wasn't a bold stroke kind of move, if that was even possible. It may not have been. But the only sorts of actions that change things, really change things, are big deals like the Howard deal or draft picks that are franchise-alterers. It's interesting to watch Denver make these incremental improvements up and down the roster, but in the end, will it bear fruit? The league is what it is -- what it always has been. And yet we all get hung up on talking about the likes of Danny Green and Trevor Ariza and thinking that our guy is a guy to change things and our side is the one that will point the franchise in the right direction ...

[closg00]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

Well, for me it's O'Quinn rather than Denmon, and it's Landry Fields instead of Danny Green. And I'm not as much of a Lou Williams fan as you are (eFG% too low for my taste). But we're pretty close all the same. Could add Rush to that set of available, efficient and productive wings.

It's pretty simple. Ernie was afraid to lose in competition for guys like Fields/Green/Rush. And he didn't have the guts to wait to see what talent came through the amnesty waiver process.

Somehow, when he adds Tolliver and Childress, I just don't think my view will be different.

Ernie limited the Wizards options for finding role-players to FA only. It's fine to go after Meeks, perhaps Crowder/Barton/ Johnson are better or will be. Same goes for Hollis Thompson vs Tolliver. The Wizards could not be bothered with a no-risk look.

[jivelikenice]

B, We haven't given up young assets, we've made seemingly quality additions to the coaching staff and have specialists like Hopla working w/ Wall, we've added vets that I think will make us a better team, and we got a quality draft pick in Beal.

I would have graded the offseason better if they did two things:

1. Continue to add players to push youngsters. (i.e a shooting guard to push Crawford and a Sf to push Singleton)

2. I wish they aggressively went after a veteran backup pg on day 1 of FA. Instead of looking for a guy at the right price, they should have went hard after a Kidd/ Andre Miller type and paid a a little more to bring in a mentor for Wall, who at times can share the court with him...

[Kanyewest]

In terms of defensive measurements, the stats would suggest Brand and Okafor had similar defensive effects. Over the past 3 seasons, Philly has been about 2 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Brand on the court; New Orleans about 1.8 points better. Counterpart numbers are similar. Okafor is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.

Interesting stuff. Here are some questions

- Perhaps all the stat says is how much better Brand and Okafor are as defenders relative to their teammates One question to ask is who has the better backups- and with this there is not a clear answer because the backups keep changing from year to year.

- How much does the system and coaching play and rotations play into each of the players defensive abilities. Would Okafor be a better defender in Doug Collins system versus Monty Williams?

- Does good offense lead to good defense? I only bring this up because I suspect with Brand in Philly they are better at running their halfcourt offense- and perhaps this leads to better transition defense.

- Do Brand and Okafor even defend similar players when they are on the court? For example, is Okafor playing most of his minutes at center even though he is more effective as a power forward

- What is the most effective sample size? Is 3 years enough data? What would be the results say if you include 4 or 5 years (ie after Brand had his achilles injury)?

[Nivek]

Brand on a cheap contract for one year interests me more than two expensive years of Okafor and Ariza. He's a better player than either of them, and would have served as a bridge/security blanket for a year while still leaving the Wiz with major cap room next offseason.

As I've posted a few times, my preferred offseason would have involved: buyout Lewis; amnesty Blatche; draft Beal; draft Crowder; draft Denmon; get Brand in the amnesty draft; outbid the Spurs on Danny Green; outbid Atlanta on Lou Williams.

Wiz would have still had $8-9 million in cap room next offseason, plus solid young players on reasonable contracts.

Had the Wizards made these moves, I think the team would have a brighter future than they do now. They'd have brought in two young veterans who could be part of the rotation immediately, and for the next several years. They'd have given themselves a chance to "get lucky" with a couple extremely productive college players who are both terrific people. They'd have brought in a frontcourt veteran on a one-year rental to give the Wiz frontcourt youngsters another year to develop. And they'd have preserved cap flexibility to acquire other players in 2013.

And the team would have contended for the playoffs this season.

Well, for me it's O'Quinn rather than Denmon, and it's Landry Fields instead of Danny Green. And I'm not as much of a Lou Williams fan as you are (eFG% too low for my taste). But we're pretty close all the same. Could add Rush to that set of available, efficient and productive wings.

It's pretty simple. Ernie was afraid to lose in competition for guys like Fields/Green/Rush. And he didn't have the guts to wait to see what talent came through the amnesty waiver process.

Somehow, when he adds Tolliver and Childress, I just don't think my view will be different.

I'd have been okay with O'Quinn instead of Denmon and Fields instead of Green. There are still other options I'd have been happy with as well.

As for Williams, I understand your point, but he also contributes offensively with assists, low turnovers and doing a good job getting to the line. The past three seasons, he's been solidly bove average in efficiency while also being well above average in usage.

We're both making the same point -- that there are a number of realistic offseasons that would have been preferable to the one they had.

[Nivek]

(Another complication to WIlliams signing here is Jordan Crawford. Think what you will, he's still on the roster. We would've had to trade him, and that sort of thing means selling unwisely. And we also just drafted a 2 in Beal, hoping he'll be a star.)

Just wanted to respond to a couple things.

Re: Crawford -- he should be irrelevant in personnel moves because he's bad. His offensive efficiency is horrific and he's below average at everything else. There'd have been no need to trade him if they'd acquired Williams or any other guard. Bench him, trade him, cut him. Whatever.

Picking up Williams (or another good backcourt player) would have no effect on Beal's chances of becoming a star. Williams could have been a nice fit as a 3rd guard with Wall and Beal. Plenty of minutes to divide 3 ways.

And how can you justify spending 14 million on role players when the saying goes that teams kill themselves by spending too much on players who surround a core? You seem to suggest that both will continue to get better. I don't see that. I think Williams already experienced his leap. And Green is what he is.

A) As I said before, I don't think it would have cost $14 million. But whatever.

B) It's easily justifiable because the Wizards still would have had $8-9 million in cap space next offseason. Or, using your $14 million figure, $5-7 million. Which is enough to be able to sign a free agent, use in trades, etc. Plus, the team would have upgraded its talent in need areas.

C) Williams may well have experienced his leap. And? He turns 26 at the start of this season. Which would suggest another 3-4 seasons of the kind of production he provided the past couple seasons.

D) Green just turned 25 and has played 1700 minutes. If he's "only" what he is now, he should be a good 3&D SF for the next 3-4 seasons.

I think both guys COULD get better, but I wouldn't be counting on that at all. Even if they're "only" as good as they were last season, they'd be better than what the Wizards have had at those spots, and better than what the Wizards currently have at those spots.

In an earlier post, you said that Brand and Okafor posted similar defensive numbers, and that Okafor was a better rebounder and shot-blocker. I'm not saying that I think he's the greatest addition in the world, but adding that to what we already have in Nene and Seraphin -- and adding his toughness -- is not nothing. And if we can sell high after a year, that's not nothing either.

Agreed that it's not nothing.

I'm dubious about the notion of flipping Okafor next season. Ted's been beating the "stability and continuity" drum. Of course, he's said a few things about the team and then they've gone out and done something contrary. So, I'm hoping he's full of **** again.

[Nivek]

In terms of defensive measurements, the stats would suggest Brand and Okafor had similar defensive effects. Over the past 3 seasons, Philly has been about 2 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Brand on the court; New Orleans about 1.8 points better. Counterpart numbers are similar. Okafor is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.

Interesting stuff. Here are some questions

- Perhaps all the stat says is how much better Brand and Okafor are as defenders relative to their teammates One question to ask is who has the better backups- and with this there is not a clear answer because the backups keep changing from year to year.

- How much does the system and coaching play and rotations play into each of the players defensive abilities. Would Okafor be a better defender in Doug Collins system versus Monty Williams?

- Does good offense lead to good defense? I only bring this up because I suspect with Brand in Philly they are better at running their halfcourt offense- and perhaps this leads to better transition defense.

- Do Brand and Okafor even defend similar players when they are on the court? For example, is Okafor playing most of his minutes at center even though he is more effective as a power forward

- What is the most effective sample size? Is 3 years enough data? What would be the results say if you include 4 or 5 years (ie after Brand had his achilles injury)?

These are good questions, most of which I don't have time to answer right now.

Does good offense lead to good defense (and vice versa)? When I've looked at this in the past, I've found no relationship between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. I've seen interesting numbers about the efficiency of possessions depending on how it starts. Possessions that start with steals, for example, are higher efficiency than possessions that start after an opponent score or a dead ball.

However, going for steals on defense to boost offensive efficiency is a loser's bet. Teams that generate lots of steals are usually pretty bad defensively because they tend to give up a high shooting percentage. The best teams at stealing the ball get a steal maybe 10% of the time. A team that forces a lot of turnovers might get turnovers on 20% of their defensive possessions. Which means, of course, that the opponent is still getting a shot or free throws 80% of the time.

[closg00]

28. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 431

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT
214 (22nd) 32 (27th) 80 (19th) 35 (22nd 70. (8th)

In a word: blah. The Wizards unloaded some of the more comic elements of last seasons's merry band of underachievers by sending away Nick Young, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, but in their place they settled for expensive mediocrity. Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza will win them a few more games in the short term, but the pre-draft deal with New Orleans leaves Washington capped out till at least 2014, and likely longer if their young players turn out to be worth paying.

That's why we rated Washington's management 27th.There was brief hope that owner Ted Leonsis would shake things up when he bought the team two years ago, but he opted to extend the nondescript tenure of general manager Ernie Grunfeld and the equally uninspiring sideline reign of Randy Wittman. We're seeing the results after an offseason in which it seems the main aspiration is to stumble into an 8-seed.

Washington does, at least, have some good young players: John Wall, Brad Beal, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker are a solid base, and Nene gives the team a strong veteran center. Also, the draft should contribute more young talent in the next couple of years, as we don't expect the Wizards' win total to take off with this crew.

We might be more excited if this franchise had any track record of player development, but it doesn't -- witness the Blatche/Young/McGee era -- and with Wall's progress just as stuck in the mud as everyone else's, it's not clear where or when a star might emerge. With all those handicaps, we have the Wizards at a bleak 28th in our outlook.

http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?storyPag ... s-6-120815

ESPN has the Wizards ranked at the bottom of their future rankings, our management, one of the worst.

[Ruzious]

Every point in that ESPN analysis is what some of us have been trying to articulate here.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

ESPN isn't alone.

McKayla Maroney is also not impressed with Wizards management.

[LyricalRico]

*yawn*

Won't be the first time ESPN is wrong about something.

[rockymac52]

That's just Hollinger. He never has anything good to say about the Wizards, or anyone on our team. And he seems to be Ernie Grunfeld's number 1 hater. He manages to tear about EG in every article he writes that so much as mentions the Wizards.