Political Roundtable Cosmic String of Cataclysm - Part V

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Are we going to have a 21st century Civil War if Barack Obama wins the majority of the electoral votes, and therefore gets reelected; while he also happens to handily lose the popular vote?

Either way this election goes there will be some very, very upset people November 7.

[Spence]

Speaking of Mr Trump, this is rather amusing -- particularly the responses.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Speaking of Mr Trump, this is rather amusing -- particularly the responses.

Stephen C. Webster ‏@StephenCWebster
RE @realDonaldTrump: How about just write the check to the Red Cross and stop being a dick about it? But maybe that's just me.

.@realDonaldTrump extend your millions for the cat on yor head

[Spence]

Are we going to have a 21st century Civil War if Barack Obama wins the majority of the electoral votes, and therefore gets reelected; while he also happens to handily lose the popular vote?

Nobody is going to "handily" lose the popular vote this year, particularly the winner of the electoral college. Any candidate winning the EC in this campaign will either win the popular vote or get close to it. A split between the popular vote and electoral college is certainly possible this year, but it isn't a good idea to rely too heavily on national polls. Typically, national polls will adjust to more closely align with state polls as election day draws nearer. Indeed, we're already seeing this happen, apart from Gallup.

[popper]

There's a new controversy regarding the results of a Congressional Research Service report that concluded the following.

The CRS concluded:

The results of the analysis suggest that changes over the past 65 years in the top marginal tax rate and the top capital gains tax rate do not appear correlated with economic growth. The reduction in the top tax rates appears to be uncorrelated with saving, investment, and productivity growth. The top tax rates appear to have little or no relation to the size of the economic pie.

However, the top tax rate reductions appear to be associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution. As measured by IRS data, the share of income accruing to the top 0.1% of U.S. families increased from 4.2% in 1945 to 12.3% by 2007 before falling to 9.2% due to the 2007-2009 recession. At the same time, the average tax rate paid by the top 0.1% fell from over 50% in 1945 to about 25% in 2009. Tax policy could have a relation to how the economic pie is sliced—lower top tax rates may be associated with greater income disparities.

There are several significant flaws in the aforementioned conclusion in my opinion. The most glaring is that the top marginal tax rate would only be relevant in the event that the top earners actually paid it. They most certainly do not so why even analyze it?

[closg00]

Rove is predicting that Romney will get 279 electoral votes, according to his read/math. He'll be wrong

[nate33]

FWIW, I won't gripe at all if Obama wins the electoral count with Romney winning the popular vote. Both parties knew the rules going into the election.

My guess is that you won't see a bunch of red states attempt to adopt state constitutional amendments to give all electoral votes to the winner of the general election like we did in 2000 with the blue states.

On the whole issue of the electoral college, it seems to me that the problem is that the Federal government has too much power in the first place. It wouldn't be such a big issue if we followed the 10th Amendment like the framers intended.

[hands11]

And FWIW, anyone willing to cop to cursing the Electoral College after 2000? If there's another split (Romney wins Popular vote, Obama wins EC), will you still think the Electoral College is an insidious anachronism that must be replaced at all cost?

I didn't say it needed to be replaced at all cost. I have said that it seems stupid and outdated. And when I said that, I wasn't thinking about Bush/Gore, which is ancient history for my feeble, young (36) mind.

But I have yet to see any sort of rebuttal as to why we in fact need the Electoral College. Who is it serving? If Romney wins the popular vote, he should be President. Anything other than that says that people who live in one place are more important than others, which strikes me as stupid, wrong, and immoral.

It is serving the populations in the smaller states. Without the Electoral College our Republic, as we know it, would be drastically different. If I'm not mistaken, the Electoral College was the price extracted by the smaller states to join the union (I'm no historian but that's the way I understand it).

Actually, I watched a historian covering this topic recently. He said it was because the South didn't let slaves vote so the North would have slammed them in every election.

[hands11]

The electoral college doesn't ensure small states get lots of attention from national candidates, it ensures marginal constituencies receive a disproportionate amount of attention from national candidates. [Notice a lot of Obama or Romney trips to Rhode Island, Idaho, Montana, etc? Of course not. New Hampshire, which is closely divided, gets lots of attention from politicos. Vermont, right next door, which is not closely divided, receives no attention from politicos.] Whether you think it is good for marginal constituencies to receive a disproportionate amount of attention from national campaigns is a matter of opinion, but we should be clear about the actual impact of the electoral college on national campaigning.

I suspect federal land use rights and global warming would receive a lot more attention from national campaigns if candidates campaigned in Wyoming and California. Again, whether you think that is a good thing or not is a matter of opinion.

Which is why the hybrid approach could be a good one.

Keep the electoral college. But assign say 10, 15, 20 electoral votes to the popular vote as well. You can even prorate it instead of winner takes all. Say 20 electoral votes are available and you win 55% of the popular vote. Then you get 55% of the 20. Could be enough to make campaigning to the country. Actually, a base of 20 would be to low. A 5% advantage would need to translate into something like 5 electoral votes min.

I kind of like it.

[closg00]

Are we going to have a 21st century Civil War if Barack Obama wins the majority of the electoral votes, and therefore gets reelected; while he also happens to handily lose the popular vote?

Nobody is going to "handily" lose the popular vote this year, particularly the winner of the electoral college. Any candidate winning the EC in this campaign will either win the popular vote or get close to it. A split between the popular vote and electoral college is certainly possible this year, but it isn't a good idea to rely too heavily on national polls. Typically, national polls will adjust to more closely align with state polls as election day draws nearer. Indeed, we're already seeing this happen, apart from Gallup.

It doesn't matter what % of the vote Obama gets when he wins, what CCJ wrote is not that much of an exaggeration. A small % of the population are going to go nuts, eventually they will want to secede from the union again.

[hands11]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1l-UbxGia0[/youtube]


http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/11/01/prot ... -to-build/

About 700 workers building TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline in Texas move out from a Mount Pleasant lot every morning in a mobilization fit for a war zone. The size of the effort, for just one segment of Keystone XL, is part of TransCanada’s sophisticated, 4,000-person operation to dig through nearly 500 miles of land and install a 36-inch diameter oil pipeline that will bring a surge of crude to Texas refineries. It will connect with the oil hub of Cushing, Okla., and eventually will be one piece of a 1,700-mile pipeline stretching to Alberta.

This oil is not for the US. Its for the World markets
http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/22/news/ec ... /index.htm

Gas prices might go up, not down: Right now, a lot of oil being produced in Canada and North Dakota has trouble reaching the refineries and terminals on the Gulf. Since that supply can't be sold abroad, it reduces the competition for it to Midwest refineries that can pay lower prices to get it.

Giving the Canadian oil access to the Gulf means the glut in the Midwest goes away, making it more expensive for the region.

Six reasons Keystone XL was a bad deal all along

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/01/ ... all-along/

5. The Environmental Concerns About Oil Leaks Are Justified

Nebraska’s Republican Governor Dave Heineman strongly opposed the Keystone XL project because the pipeline would run through a massive and vital aquifer in his state the supplies clean drinking water to over 2 million Americans plus water that fuels the region’s agriculture industry.

Building the pipeline might have created a few thousand temporary jobs but even a minor oil spill in or near the aquifer would have jeopardized hundreds of thousands of jobs, not to mention the health and safety of millions.

Meanwhile, in Michigan where a similar tar sands pipeline spilled over 840,000 gallons of crude oil into the Kalamazoo River in 2010, residents are still complaining of headaches, dizziness and nausea while studies continue to look at the long-term effects of just being near such an oil spill when it happens.

So while the Rs like to make political hay out of this pipeline. Reality is even Obama will sell us out to Corporations. They are already building the thing. Best we can hope for is that they route it around the water supply.

What is wrong with people. Don't they want a plant that your future generations can live on ? Air, water and food they can live off of ? So sad.

[montestewart]

Are we going to have a 21st century Civil War if Barack Obama wins the majority of the electoral votes, and therefore gets reelected; while he also happens to handily lose the popular vote?

Either way this election goes there will be some very, very upset people November 7.

imagine 100 or so years from now, a whole new breed of Civil War reenactment.

[barelyawake]

A Civil War over Mittens "prancing horse" Romney not getting elected? If so, we deserve to fail as a country, because that would be the laughing stock, worst reason for warfare in recorded history.

[Severn Hoos]

A Civil War over Mittens "prancing horse" Romney not getting elected? If so, we deserve to fail as a country, because that would be the laughing stock, worst reason for warfare in recorded history.

Sadly, no - not even close. The history of Man's ability to find pointless reasons to kill each other is a long and tragic one.

[penbeast0]

I understand the arguments against (and for) the electoral college and don't find it all that big a deal either way although a few close elections have been decided by it.

To me a much bigger problem with elections is tax dollar supported closed primaries. It is basically independents being forced to pay for political parties and it's just wrong. Open primaries like Virginia has (or used to have when I last lived there anyway) are better -- primaries where there is a single ballot where there are names but no affiliation listing or where each candidate can self-identify as they wish with a candidate getting 50%+ winning and otherwise a runoff between the top 2 candidates even if (especially if?) they are from the same party is an even better system but the politicos have too much invested in the current system.

It might even cut down on the partisan nastiness (although I have no problem with strongly held beliefs that a person won't compromise) . . . or it might not.

[barelyawake]

A Civil War over Mittens "prancing horse" Romney not getting elected? If so, we deserve to fail as a country, because that would be the laughing stock, worst reason for warfare in recorded history.

Sadly, no - not even close. The history of Man's ability to find pointless reasons to kill each other is a long and tragic one.

The El Salvador-Nicaragua war was over a soccer game. That is more of a reason than because a guy like Mitt Romney didn't get elected. I literally have no respect for the man. It would be like going to war over a moldy, liver sandwich. It would be like going to war because disc jockeys promised you the existence of weapons of mass destruction, and then there being zero trace of any.

Romney handed out soup cans to his supporters to "donate" back to him while the cameras were rolling (and the Red Cross had to divert people to pick-up said cans, which they said they couldn't use). Meanwhile, actual people were mourning over drowned loved ones and needing rescue. Going to war over such a scumbag should disqualify any nation from ever participating in selecting anything again. I'm still unclear why those who promoted the weapons of mass destruction scam have a say NOW (pre-civil war and pre-Iran war that Romney is itching to start).

[Induveca]

Don't believe in war, never have....but do recognize it as an instinct of mankind. Iran sees it as inevitable. Haiti once invaded the DR, we returned the favor. The US invaded the DR in the 60s as well, Panama, Haiti, Cuba, Grenada, Nicaragua (by proxy), Iraq, Croatia....those are in the last 45 years, off the top of my head. Those attacks came from both parties, the US in general is the largest war-mongering country in the world. It's why investing in defense stocks is always so damn profitable (great advice as a young kid in the 90s from a wise old New Yorker...has held very true).

Main issue I have with the MIddle East, as a kid who grew up around dictator types, is the very dangerous precedent the current US administration set by helping to oust Mubarak in Egypt. Not only oust him, but put him in prison and take every penny he/his family had (that they know of at least....)

Mubarak was most certainly a dictator, but also the US' largest ally in the Muslim world, in its largest country. This wasn't a short alliance, but over 35 years. There is no mistake that Qaddafi fought to the death after seeing what happened to Mubarak, and it's no coincidence Al-Assad is doing the same. If to "transition" power means to land your entire family in jail or be killed, I'd fight to the death as well.

Also the prophecies flying around radical muslim regimes about the coming war with Israel and their "duty" to wipe them off the map isn't just talk. These "prophecies" come from the same type of interpretations Bin Laden and others used to convince thousands to give their lives in martyrdom, 9/11....embassy bombings etc. If you can justify those acts of insanity, getting rid of Israel moer than makes sense.

Peace talks unfortunately won't be enough to get Iran to calm down over time. Sadly, there will be a conflict eventually. I have no idea who will initiate it......does Israel play defense or offense? Big stakes to play defense.

[hands11]

Heard this reported yesterday.

75% of Dems want cooperation across party lines.
75% of Rs want their representatives to stand firm to their ideals.

But you can't compromise with people who don't want it or reward it. Sadly the only solution for the Dems is to be as stubborn as the Rs until they change their tune. That or you need more independent elected. Dems and Independents would work together fine.

Rs may talk a good game to independents about their willingness to compromise but its just lip service. They are not going to do it because 75% of their base doesn't want it.

A an aside. I think where Mitt has taken the art of lying simply can't get rewarded. I mean to actually do speeches and run ads saying it is him that is for the auto industry and keeping jobs in the US and its Obama that has shipped jobs to China when the exact opposite is true is beyond unpatriotic. Your running to be President. You can't lie to American like this. Thats insane. Its easily fact checked. Chrysler even stepped in and called it a bold faced lie. Not only did they not ship the Jeep jobs to China but it was Mitt who did via Bain when they bought the larger part manufacturer and extorted a millions from out government via the actual auto recovery bill funds he objected to.

Then just yesterday I saw an add saying he wasn't against a women right to choose. But he has said he would appoint supreme court justices that would reverse Rowe vs Wade.

What a scum bag.

Mitt is the worst kind of slimy sales person. He is the type that will say anything to close the deal. That kind of scummy car sales person everyone hates. As someone who did sales for over 15 years, I always did the opposite. I was honest. Informative. Helpful. Some people I directed to other companies that could help them better. Results. People sent people to me. Some would just get on the phone and say, I have this much to spend, what would be best. People trusted me to be honest and helpful. Thats really important. No one want to refer someone to a company and then get embarrassed they did it. They are putting their reputation on the line when they do that.

Honesty. Integrity. Knowledge. Service. Those are the core characteristic of what I call a good sales person. Actually, they are good characteristics in general.

[Induveca]

The real issue with shipping jobs overseas goes far beyond the simplistic characterization of the BS "unpatriotic" line politicians use (either party). The process of signing a contract in SE Asia is far easier/exponentially cheaper and keeps companies profitable.

It's quite simply, work ethic/cost of doing business in the US is lackluster/expensive.

I can have (via Alibaba) a very reputable manufacturing company (Ssongyang,Rexton etc) begin building me 500 100% customized units of light vans all deliverable via container within 45-60 days TODAY, with a quick wire transfer of 10% down. The general cost of these machines is 300% less, and they are just as reliable as Ford etc. Don't fall for the US line of Chinese cars being unreliable, they are everywhere in South America/Caribbean/Asia/Africa/Eastern Europe. Basically everywhere they don't have their own national brands.

To do the same with Ford would take me 4 months minimum, and that's AFTER the weeks of haggling, contract revisions, travel, and paying US attorney fees.

[montestewart]

I can't even afford to order 500 pencils.