Official Speculation Thread (Pt. L "Trade Deadline" Edition)

[rcklsscognition]

If JJ wants more money I think he's going to have to start. That either means us getting rid of AA, or him going to a team with a starting SG up for grabs. Otherwise, he's looking at about 5.25 mil over 3 years. We cannot overpay him 7-7.5 just because we like him.

[Bensational]

Going into the '13-'14 season we'll have $41.9M tied up in veterans, closer to $50M if you wish to resign Redick. There would be some wiggle room as we could slash $10M by cutting Harrington and Hedo this offseason, allowing us to chase a top flight free agent this early in the rebuild, even with keeping Redick. Should we stand pat with our veterans by the '14-'15 season we'll have $29.96M, or $38M if we keep Redick, invested in veterans. There is still some wiggle room as we can shave $10M by cutting Nelson and Harrington. In the '14- '15 season we could be positioned to grab multiple top flight free agents, if you don't keep Redick and cut Nelson and Harrington.

My thinking is that going for a top flight free agent as early a this offseason is a mistake. First of all we aren't likely to have as dominant a hand cap wise as we would by waiting. Secondly, we'd be increasing our winning percentage and lowering our lottery odds for the '13-'14 season, and I strongly feel that we are only getting a franchise player by tanking next season. Thirdly, waiting till next offseason to sign a top flight free agent means we'd likely be building around two high lottery picks, our rookie contracts from the Dwight trade, our rookie contracts from the '12 draft, and our veterans Afflalo and BBD. I'd much rather swap out those veterans for Nelson and Redick but that would take some fancy trading and besides Afflalo and BBD probably help our lottery odds.

Most likely though we prolong the rebuild due to loyalty to Nelson and Redick and don't see the top flight free agent until '15-'16.

If we trade JJ I'd love to see it in conjunction with moving BBD too. Then we can keep Nelson and go shopping next offseason, while still tanking next season. I see us back in the playoffs two seasons from now if we make the right trades to free up cap space for next offseason.

we will be in a position to make a splash in 2014/15.

Vuc/KOQ
BBD/Nicholson
Harkless
AA
?
+2 high lottery picks.

Even if you add JJ, that's still only just over $30M. That's enough for 2 max FA's, even if we haven't found a legit superstar within the draft.

But who are the FA's available, and how realistically do they fit into a rebuild (albeit, one that would be near the end if we signed them)?

Unlikely to leave their team (IMO): LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Melo... (others might fit into this too, but even if they were likely to leave their teams, they would be...)

Too old: Dirk, Duncan, Garnett, Pau, Amare, ZBo

Are they big enough stars?: Tony Parker

RFAs: DMC, Monroe, John Wall, Paul George, Evan Turner, Favors

_______________________________________

2015

FA: Love, Aldridge, Rondo

Are they big enough stars?: Gay, Gordon, Marc Gasol

RFAs: Irving, Rubio, Faried

_______________________________________

Our best bet lays in the RFAs, but most of the sure-shot options will definitely be matched by their team. DMC, Monroe, Wall, George, Irving, Rubio would all be great, but we won't be getting them unless they have a falling out with their team and/or negotiate a s&t prior to signing a deal, or threaten to take the QO and leave as a FA.

to make a s&t happen, we'll need assets. as Houston just showed with Harden, it will be a fairly expensive price to pay, too. it cost them 2 lottery picks and an allstar caliber player on an expiring deal.

BBD won't carry much value, other than as a serviceable player on an expiring deal.

AA is an affordable, good-but-not-allstar SG, on an expiring.

Harkless should have started to show more consistent form by that point. He's young, with upside, and on a rookie deal. He could ultimately be a big trade chip.

Nicholson should most definitely see more minutes and be a pretty respectable offensive weapon, who's young enough, and on a rookie contract. Big trade chip.

Vuc likely would be kept to be partnered with any of those incoming prospects, unless we draft an even more promising rookie in the meantime.

Rookies - these could either be our saviours, or the bulk of the package we're trading for one of those FA's.

so, in conclusion, i think we will need some salary on the books. without salary, we won't have assets, and without assets, we can't negotiate s&t's.

[KingRobb02]

I would think J Terry he got wht 5-6 per?

Yeah, that would be similar. Also OJ Mayo at 5.2 I think. I think we'll have to overpay him to stay, market value for JJ is around 5.5 or less if he isn't starting.

Those guys basically agreed to mid level exceptions in order be on a different team. Any agent worth his suit would use JJ's current contract. Plus everyone knows how Bird rights work. Just say my client got moderate deal, improved every year and is still in his prime at 28. There's no way he sits down with a lower number on his mind.

[Def Swami]

With 4 days left until the trade deadline, I'm going to guess that JJ doesn't get traded and he is re-signed in the off-season. The teams with assets we'd like are too awful for JJ to re-sign with, and the teams that JJ is likely to re-sign with don't really have the assets we'd like. I could very well see our front office saying that keeping JJ is better than anything we'd get back in a trade.

Afflalo stays past the deadline too. I think we do our work in the off-season, around the draft.

Note that under said scenario, Redick would be untradeable per the CBA, and Afflalo thus becomes the off-season trade-chip.


..

Yep. That's where I think it heads.

[Def Swami]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

We have plenty of time to move Afflalo. If we can sign JJ, he becomes even more valuable as a future asset as he'd be locked up and that'd open us to more trade partners. And $7-8 million is nothing for a quality vet in their prime on a rebuilding team. Henny will make moves when the time is right...

I don't think we're making any moves until around draft day at the earliest. See our options first, make adjustments later. You do it the other way and you screw yourself.

I wonder, who is JJ's agent going to compare him to when he's negotiating a salary? Do you all see anyone around the league that the agent can say, this guy is similar to JJ and he's earning XXXX a year?

Watch out for Ryan Anderson #'s.

[rcklsscognition]

Watch out for Ryan Anderson #'s.

Yeah, but he's a big guy that shoots the 3 and rebounds. I think JJ is generally very talented and valuable, I think he should be starting somewhere and make something like Afflalo is. But in the NBA now, when you take out the few guys making huge contracts from the old CBA or guys that are old veterans, there are three salary clusters. 1 cluster, around 7.5 million, are for 2nd tier NBA starting SGs, like Afflalo (or JJ if he started). The 2nd tier are for 6th man type SGs, like OJ Mayo, Jason Terry, etc. They are clusters around 5.25 million. The 3rd tier are for bench players and prospects, making 3 million or less.

The PFs seem to have a higher cluster with more players making 8.5-12 million than SGs, like 2x-3x as many players.

This site has good sortable salaries and you can look into the future.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-player-salaries/position/2012/

[JBSouthpaw]

..........

If we trade JJ I'd love to see it in conjunction with moving BBD too. Then we can keep Nelson and go shopping next offseason, while still tanking next season. I see us back in the playoffs two seasons from now if we make the right trades to free up cap space for next offseason.

I wonder if taking back less( a player who's contract expires and a 2nd round pick) and getting AL H. or Turks contract off the books is better than getting a 1st round pick in return for JJ ??
Hell, you can usually by a late 1st for about $3M. which is less than their contracts for next year.

[glennathan]

..........

If we trade JJ I'd love to see it in conjunction with moving BBD too. Then we can keep Nelson and go shopping next offseason, while still tanking next season. I see us back in the playoffs two seasons from now if we make the right trades to free up cap space for next offseason.

I wonder if taking back less( a player who's contract expires and a 2nd round pick) and getting AL H. or Turks contract off the books is better than getting a 1st round pick in return for JJ ??
Hell, you can usually by a late 1st for about $3M. which is less than their contracts for next year.

Good thought and instead of a late 1st pick go cheaper and get a high 2nd round pick.

[trebone]

I'm not sure we are gonna see a lot of $6-10 mil/yr guys in the new CBA landscape. I think there will be a lot of 'new' max guys, a lot of minimum guys, rookie deals, and not a lot of middle class.

Kinda like the new US economic landscape

[Bensational]

Watch out for Ryan Anderson #'s.

Yeah, but he's a big guy that shoots the 3 and rebounds. I think JJ is generally very talented and valuable, I think he should be starting somewhere and make something like Afflalo is. But in the NBA now, when you take out the few guys making huge contracts from the old CBA or guys that are old veterans, there are three salary clusters. 1 cluster, around 7.5 million, are for 2nd tier NBA starting SGs, like Afflalo (or JJ if he started). The 2nd tier are for 6th man type SGs, like OJ Mayo, Jason Terry, etc. They are clusters around 5.25 million. The 3rd tier are for bench players and prospects, making 3 million or less.

The PFs seem to have a higher cluster with more players making 8.5-12 million than SGs, like 2x-3x as many players.

This site has good sortable salaries and you can look into the future.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-player-salaries/position/2012/

i'd like to imagine that the new CBA will change the way GMs overspend, but i doubt it. GMs are their own worst enemies. Someone with too much money will be prepared to offer JJ a deal in the $7-8.5M field. our hope is that we can lock him down for 7 for a longer term, without such large raises.

but keeping JJ will be important. he's more valuable as an asset than his cap space will be, given that we're still looking at having ample cap space anyway.

[Ducklett]

With 4 days left until the trade deadline, I'm going to guess that JJ doesn't get traded and he is re-signed in the off-season. The teams with assets we'd like are too awful for JJ to re-sign with, and the teams that JJ is likely to re-sign with don't really have the assets we'd like. I could very well see our front office saying that keeping JJ is better than anything we'd get back in a trade.

Afflalo stays past the deadline too. I think we do our work in the off-season, around the draft.

What exactly do you suggest we do "around the draft". JJ would be S&T at that point, correct? I would imagine that is less value than he is now. Using Hedo as a buy out? Maybe, but I doubt the value is there after the PED report. McBob will be expired as well.

Not sure what we would do at the draft...

[Def Swami]

With 4 days left until the trade deadline, I'm going to guess that JJ doesn't get traded and he is re-signed in the off-season. The teams with assets we'd like are too awful for JJ to re-sign with, and the teams that JJ is likely to re-sign with don't really have the assets we'd like. I could very well see our front office saying that keeping JJ is better than anything we'd get back in a trade.

Afflalo stays past the deadline too. I think we do our work in the off-season, around the draft.

What exactly do you suggest we do "around the draft". JJ would be S&T at that point, correct? I would imagine that is less value than he is now. Using Hedo as a buy out? Maybe, but I doubt the value is there after the PED report. McBob will be expired as well.

Not sure what we would do at the draft...

If anything were to happen, it would involve trading Afflalo. I think JJ is here for the long term.

[RookieStar]

When is the deadline again? i'm hoping for some movement. Trades have been dead in the league so far

[rcklsscognition]

When is the deadline again? i'm hoping for some movement. Trades have been dead in the league so far

Thursday afternoon I think.

Here's a bit from AK:

By the time Orlando’s core of Nikola Vucevic, Andrew Nicholson, Maurice Harkless and others reach their prime, Redick will likely be out of the league.

Read more at http://www.hoopsworld.com/10-players-wh ... AYLdkTu.99

[RookieStar]

When is the deadline again? i'm hoping for some movement. Trades have been dead in the league so far

Thursday afternoon I think.

Here's a bit from AK:

By the time Orlando’s core of Nikola Vucevic, Andrew Nicholson, Maurice Harkless and others reach their prime, Redick will likely be out of the league.

Read more at http://www.hoopsworld.com/10-players-wh ... AYLdkTu.99

I think our rooks will be in their prime 2 years from now. J will be around 30 still. So it's all good

[rcklsscognition]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4aj5S4K4kE[/youtube]

Doesn't look like Harrington is anywhere near ready.

[bigdogdylan5]

who was that in the blue (Moore?)
I know it was Harrington Hedo McRoberts Ish and Dequan

[AdamTheGreek]

It's Coach Laron Profit. Al's coming along. Needs to be more confident in taking contact.

I will kindly disagree with Alex Kennedy's opinion on Redick and where he fits on this team.

[rcklsscognition]

Pretty poor day for trade rumours. Don't think I saw anything but Toronto possibly holding onto Bags until the summer.

[Def Swami]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4aj5S4K4kE[/youtube]

Doesn't look like Harrington is anywhere near ready.

Are they playing through a fire alarm?