The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[IG2]

Yeah, pretty mediocre game today by his standards. He wasn't moving all that smoothly either. I will chalk it up to rust/lack of motivation(Hawks are zzzzzzzzzzzz). Tomorrow's game should be much better.

[SideshowBob]

Thing is though, even when he was massive early this year(preseason, especially), he was still moving better than he ever had the last 2 seasons, which made me question whether weight played a significant role at all in his shell of a body the last 2 seasons.

He IS clearly slimmer this season compared to the last 2, but I don't think that explains why he's moving a lot better, given what we saw in the Olympics and early this season. It's something that just cannot be explained.

True. Its bizarre.

On a different topic....

Part of the problem is just the way he's being utilized. He's far too frequently seen attacking the basket or posting up.

I don't know how much of this by design. I routinely see Allen waving off LeBron and Wade to create out there. He really seems to LIKE to dribble the ball.

Haha yeah. I've watched the Garnett era Celtics about as much as I've watched Lebron in depth. He did this in Boston too, and it was never a recipe for success. Be thankful he's not bringing the ball up as much here, that was even worse. He would bring it up to about half-court and then try to initiate offense from there, and it was just a mess. He's at his best when he's the focus of the defense off the ball, I just don't understand what his fascination with creating is.

[C0bR]

Yeah, watching Ray leading the fastbreak with LeBron trailing and then bricking layup or getting blocked is very frustrating. Not even need to mention his old man drives.

Meanwhile, LeBron is shooting 59,3% from the right corner.

[toodles23]

Yeah, watching Ray leading the fastbreak with LeBron trailing and then bricking layup or getting blocked is very frustrating. Not even need to mention his old man drives.

Meanwhile, LeBron is shooting 59,3% from the right corner.

Ray's gotta be the worst finisher on the break in the league. It's almost like a turnover when he tries to finish it himself.

[GSP]

So what do you all think Lebrons potential is at becoming Goat or at least 2nd behind Mj? I think hes a lock for top 5 if he keeps this up and I expect him to be at this same level for at least 3 more seasons.
Personally thought his 09 and 10 seasons were on tier 2 of alltime great peaks but 2013 is definitely in that one with Mj, Shaq, Russell Wilt IMO.

I think when his athleticism declines hes still going to be a massive impact player juss not as productive as he is now. I expect 59+ts seasons from 31-34 with good assisting and rebounding and I think with looking to score less his turnovers will also decrease. His usage will get lower as well so overall I think he can be a top 5 player for 7 more seasons with being the best in the league for at least 4 more.

[Sony17]

So what do you all think Lebrons potential is at becoming Goat or at least 2nd behind Mj? I think hes a lock for top 5 if he keeps this up and I expect him to be at this same level for at least 3 more seasons.
Personally thought his 09 and 10 seasons were on tier 2 of alltime great peaks but 2013 is definitely in that one with Mj, Shaq, Russell Wilt IMO.

I think when his athleticism declines hes still going to be a massive impact player juss not as productive as he is now. I expect 59+ts seasons from 31-34 with good assisting and rebounding and I think with looking to score less his turnovers will also decrease. His usage will get lower as well so overall I think he can be a top 5 player for 7 more seasons with being the best in the league for at least 4 more.

Russel did not have a goat tier 1 peak to me tier 1 peak is MJ,shaq, wilt, Lebron

[Mutnt]

So what do you all think Lebrons potential is at becoming Goat or at least 2nd behind Mj? I think hes a lock for top 5 if he keeps this up and I expect him to be at this same level for at least 3 more seasons.
Personally thought his 09 and 10 seasons were on tier 2 of alltime great peaks but 2013 is definitely in that one with Mj, Shaq, Russell Wilt IMO.

I think when his athleticism declines hes still going to be a massive impact player juss not as productive as he is now. I expect 59+ts seasons from 31-34 with good assisting and rebounding and I think with looking to score less his turnovers will also decrease. His usage will get lower as well so overall I think he can be a top 5 player for 7 more seasons with being the best in the league for at least 4 more.

I think he has a very good chance of doing it. I don't like to jump the gun on occasions like these but I think we all know it will come down to rings and almost rings only. His peak, prime, dominance, consistency is already there but he needs to start winning rings quickly, otherwise he'll never be considered top 5. Absolutely needs to avoid blemishes similar to the 2011 Finals, because everything will be pinned against him in a big way. Good longevity is also something that he'll need but I think this won't be a big problem for him.

[Dr Spaceman]

So what do you all think Lebrons potential is at becoming Goat or at least 2nd behind Mj? I think hes a lock for top 5 if he keeps this up and I expect him to be at this same level for at least 3 more seasons.
Personally thought his 09 and 10 seasons were on tier 2 of alltime great peaks but 2013 is definitely in that one with Mj, Shaq, Russell Wilt IMO.

I think when his athleticism declines hes still going to be a massive impact player juss not as productive as he is now. I expect 59+ts seasons from 31-34 with good assisting and rebounding and I think with looking to score less his turnovers will also decrease. His usage will get lower as well so overall I think he can be a top 5 player for 7 more seasons with being the best in the league for at least 4 more.

I think he has a very good chance of doing it. I don't like to jump the gun on occasions like these but I think we all know it will come down to rings and almost rings only. His peak, prime, dominance, consistency is already there but he needs to start winning rings quickly, otherwise he'll never be considered top 5. Absolutely needs to avoid blemishes similar to the 2011 Finals, because everything will be pinned against him in a big way. Good longevity is also something that he'll need but I think this won't be a big problem for him.

You know, it's really a shame 2011 will be held against him. I understand he was disappointing, and I'm not going to defend his performance. But, after that loss, it really lit a fire under him. He worked harder that offseason than most players probably have in their entire careers. He completely changed his approach to the game (look at his shot charts from 11 to 12) and really corrected most of the issues that have been holding him back. Why do we not celebrate him for this?

Michael himself said that you need to fail over and over before you succeed. Lebron failed in the worst way possible, on the biggest stage, and instead of shrinking like the media said he would, he rose up and has had 2 incredible seasons since. That loss propelled him to a championship, one of the best seasons of his career to date, likely 2 straight MVPs (and counting), and, IMO, what will be a run of several championships in a row and complete domination of the league. He still hasn't maximized his talent yet.

I get that we can say "MJ was 6-6 in the finals". Guess what? MJ lost every single year of his career other than those 6 years. I personally think the rebirth were seeing from Lebron is more impressive than losing earlier in the playoffs and having a pristine finals record. IMO, that loss MADE Lebron's career. He needed it, and now he's reaping the rewards.

/rant

EDIT: Unfortunately, the people who will ultimately determine his GOAT standing (ESPN, casual fan types) don't follow his game by game and career narrative like we do. They see the highlights, listen to Skip, and make their assessments. It's lazy, and it's wrong, but it's the truth. They won't notice how much weight he lost, or how his scoring and passing are so much improved, despite similar raw production. (Ex: I used to listen to Around the NBA podcast with Ryen Russilo, and I remember he said in 2010 that Lebron's assists were mostly of the low-consequence types, like fast break layups and whatnot. Just by the Eye test, that has done a complete 180, despite the similar raw APG production. He facilitates like a point guard now.) Shame.

[rjchpd]

Sideshow, how is Lebron doing in the +/- area ? I figure he should be ahead of Durant by now.

[colts18]

Sideshow, how is Lebron doing in the +/- area ? I figure he should be ahead of Durant by now.

LeBron:
+11.2 On Court
-6.8 off court
+18.0 Plus/minus

Durant:
+10.5 on court
+2.8 off court
+7.7 Plus/Minus

Offense:
LeBron:
115.8 O Rating on court
102.5 O Rating off court
+13.3 Net Offensive Rating

Durant:
114.4 O Rating on court
103.9 O Rating off court
+10.5 Net Offensive Rating

[PCProductions]

Sideshow, how is Lebron doing in the +/- area ? I figure he should be ahead of Durant by now.

LeBron:
+11.2 On Court
-6.8 off court
+18.0 Plus/minus

Durant:
+10.5 on court
+2.8 off court
+7.7 Plus/Minus

Offense:
LeBron:
115.8 O Rating on court
102.5 O Rating off court
+13.3 Net Offensive Rating

Durant:
114.4 O Rating on court
103.9 O Rating off court
+10.5 Net Offensive Rating

I knew Durant's absurd +/- numbers would fall back down to earth. They were absolutely out of the park amazing in the first third of this regular season. In other news:

Lebron is officially leading the WS/48 stat at .309, Durant second with .300
He still holds the league's best PER at 31.4, which is his second highest season PER behind his 09 season
He is second in eFG% behind the mighty dunk-monster Tyson Chandler (most impressive stat IMO)

On the topic of Durant vs Lebron, I will say one thing in relation to last night's game: What Lebron was doing in the 4th is what makes him handily the better offensive player to me. Durant's shot is smoother and he gets to the line a lot more due to his length, but I have yet to see KD facilitate half as well as Lebron. The assists per game doesn't do Lebron justice, either. Though I don't want to find out myself, I'm curious how often Lebron sets up Ray Allen/Shane Battier for a perfectly open three that resulted in a brick. I've never seen one player be able to single-handedly get 3pt shooters an open look so tactically and consistently in my life.

[Colbinii]

On the topic of Durant vs Lebron, I will say one thing in relation to last night's game: What Lebron was doing in the 4th is what makes him handily the better offensive player to me. Durant's shot is smoother and he gets to the line a lot more due to his length, but I have yet to see KD facilitate half as well as Lebron. The assists per game doesn't do Lebron justice, either. Though I don't want to find out myself, I'm curious how often Lebron sets up Ray Allen/Shane Battier for a perfectly open three that resulted in a brick. I've never seen one player be able to single-handedly get 3pt shooters an open look so tactically and consistently in my life.

In another thread someone said it took no skill to get assists when your shooters are wide open. If people doesn't think it takes skill for Lebron to make assists look THIS easy, I don't know what would.
Truly an honor to watch a player of his caliber do literally everything at an All time great level.

[SideshowBob]

Worth noting that the toughest possible defensive route through the EC this year for Miami, given the current standings and assuming each series goes to the same number of games is -3.6 (101.9), facing Milwaukee first, Chicago second, and Indiana 3rd.

For comparison, average EC defense faced by Lebron in:

2012: -4.0 (101.6)
2011: -5.4 (102.2)
2010: -3.1 (104.5)
2009: -3.0 (105.3)
2008: -3.7 (103.8)

Currently looking at -3.9 (101.6) right now (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana) as the toughest possible defensive route through the EC playoffs. If Boston falls to the 8th seed, then it's -4.4 (101.1), which would be the toughest outside of 2011 (which just looks absurd; he played his two best series that season against consecutive -7.0 defensive teams).

[SideshowBob]

Honestly I don't see the Heat losing. Just look at LeBron's lineup page and check out some of the net ratings of the 2, 3, and 4 man combos.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eups/2013/

For example when LeBron, Wade, and Battier play, they are +19.0. On offense they are 118.4 per 100.

How about this for crazy. LeBron has 10 different 3 man lineup combos that have played 400 minutes. You want to guess where the Wade/Bosh/LeBron lineup rank among those 10? They are in 10th place with a +11.5 per 100 possessions.

Some more small minute lineups

Allen + Bosh + Wade + James: 117.7 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG (+12.6) in 280.9 minutes

Allen + Bosh + James (no Wade): 118.1 ORTG, 108.1 DRTG (+10.0) in 159.8 minutes

Allen + Wade + James (no Bosh): 114.9 ORTG, 106.9 DRTG (+7.9) in 80.1 minutes

Bosh + Wade + Allen (no James): 113.6 ORTG, 108.2 DRTG (+5.5) in 80.1 minutes

Wade + Battier + James (no Bosh): 125.1 ORTG, 98.5 DRTG (+26.5) in 171.0 minutes

Bosh + Battier + James (no Wade): 121.0 ORTG, 101.4 DRTG (+19.6) in 157.1 minutes

Bosh + Battier + Wade (no James): 97.7 ORTG, 113.3 DRTG (-15.6) in 72.4 minutes

Again, we're seeing a struggle when Wade and Bosh share the floor, and a MAJOR struggle when James is not present with them. The samples with Bosh and Wade minus James seem small though, a good sign considering how poorly its working.

[PCProductions]

Bob, where are you getting the ORtg/DRtg from the lineups? BBRef doesn't seem to show those in the lineups...

[colts18]

Bob, where are you getting the ORtg/DRtg from the lineups? BBRef doesn't seem to show those in the lineups...

If you go to the play index+, you can search lineup combos by a number of variables including O rtg, D rtg, etc.

[therealbig3]

IMO, he looked slower than he usually has this season, because he seemed to have trouble driving on Deng, Butler, and even Noah tonight. But imo...he just looked bored, like he didn't feel like really being explosive on his drives, he just decided he was going to shoot jumpers...and his jumper is just WET right now, it's insane.

[Mutnt]

IMO, he looked slower than he usually has this season, because he seemed to have trouble driving on Deng, Butler, and even Noah tonight. But imo...he just looked bored, like he didn't feel like really being explosive on his drives, he just decided he was going to shoot jumpers...and his jumper is just WET right now, it's insane.

Deng and Butler are two of the best wing defenders in the league lol and they always play you tough. Ditto Noah. Bron had 2 or 3 nice drives but other than that, as I already mentioned, there's no reason from him to get really aggressive, driving full speed or banging down low 30 games left until the end of the season and risk some kind of injury. LeBron's not stupid. He was kind of aggressive on the boards tonight and played defense better than usual though.

He's waiting for the playoffs now.

[SideshowBob]

Since recovering from Ankle injury (18 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
38.1  29.3   7.8    7.2    2.1    0.7    3.0  .700   .666    27.4   136

Last 9

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
37.2  30.4   7.8    7.1    2.0    0.7    3.6  .765   .733    28.6   140

February

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
37.6  30.2   7.6    6.7    1.9    0.7    3.5  .752   .715    27.8   138

That's two straight games under 30. I'd expect him to get back to slightly higher volume on Saturday in Philli

[SideshowBob]

Season minus 2 injured games and 1 sick game (@PHO, @IND, @POR) (49 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
38.4  27.7   8.1    7.1    1.8    0.8    2.9  .647   .612    25.1   127