Washington @ Minnesota 3/6/2013 - 8:00

[AFM]

No, making buckets is always a good thing. What are you talking about?

[jivelikenice]

Irving is better than Wall. He has already been an all star. He is almost two years younger than Wall.

Not sure who's arguing that so I don't get the point there. At this point anyone would be a fool to pick Wall over Kyrie.

However my point on Kyrie was twofold. 1. If Kyrie were here, there would be numerous complaints about his game including crap defense, losing, and inability to get teamates invovled; and 2. The rush to annoint players in the NBA is tiresome. We saw it with Lin last yr and it happens every yr. If a pg is skilled and can put up points, ppl immediately are ready to call them the next great thing. Lets see if it translates to winning before we put him in elite company.

My general point on Wall is its too soon to say he won't be more than an average player. He was raw coming out of school and has played the equivalent of only two seasons of games. Its fair to disagree on that point based on what we've seen so far, although I disgree on the notion that he hasn't improved. His shooting is better now IMO. The problem is when he gets better in one area, he suffers in another and can't put together consistent complete efforts on a game by game basis. One game he passes well, one game he shoots better, one game he plays great D, but rarely do you see it all on display at once. He can play 3 great quarters like he did yesterday, and play poorly down the stretch which leaves a bad taste on the overall performance. Unitl he learns to do that, the questions are fair....

[Zonkerbl]

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd rather have a player who is mediocre offensively and plays decent defense, than, oh, say, someone who scores 29 points a game and doesn't have a clue on defense. I had ENOUGH OF THAT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

Kyrie may be a better basketball player, overall, than Wall. And he may deserve a bigger contract. But I'd rather have Wall than Kyrie. I'm just a grumpy old white man who grew up watching Hoosier basketball. I want our team to play defense.

[nate33]

I disgree on the notion that he hasn't improved. His shooting is better now IMO.

Shooting isn't really a matter of opinion. We have actual data:

Code: Select all

     |   At Rim   |   3-9 Feet  | 10-16 Feet |  16-23 Feet |   3-point     
      M   A   FG%   M   A   FG%   M   A   FG%   M   A   FG%   M   A   FG%
2011 3.2 5.3 59.9  0.5 1.5 30.5  0.4 1.4 28.0  1.2 4.2 30.0  0.5 1.7 44.4
2012 3.6 5.8 61.9  0.4 1.5 28.3  0.4 1.2 32.1  1.3 4.4 29.0  0.0 0.6 10.7
2013 2.9 4.8 61.8  0.6 1.4 45.5  0.2 1.1 17.6  1.6 4.9 32.0  0.1 0.8 12.5


I don't see much improvement. He is much better from 3-9 feet, and much worse from 10-16. Everything else is the same, only he is shooting more jumpers and fewer layups (which is not a good thing).

[jivelikenice]

^I thought this data was only for 16 games and hadn't been updated. I may be wrong but that's why I didn't cite it and decided to go with an "opinion"

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=John%20Wall

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Irving is better than Wall. He has already been an all star. He is almost two years younger than Wall.

jivelikenice, I don't pat myself on the back for saying anything about Irving. I do gloat quite a bit for listening to people repeatedly say how good Wall is and how crazy I was for suggesting Wall trades for about 2 years now. I have watched Wall's hype come down but there are many who don't want to admit they were very wrong about Wall. At best, he's slightly above average. We can talk potential if you like, but after three seasons in the league he is slightly above average and not showing any signs of improvement. What I give myself credit for is not buying the hype, ever, on John Wall.

I don't really want to debate anything about Irving but he is better than John Wall.

You were right, CCJ. And I was wrong. Wall just isn't that good of a player, and after 3 seasons with no discernible improvement, I no longer have any expectation that he will be that good. His utter lack of improvement has been demoralizing for me. He looks like he is exactly the same player he was in his rookie season. He's actually worse this year despite better teammates. (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt this season in that he is rusty from the long layoff.)

He leads the league by a country mile in turnovers per 36 minutes at 4.4. Only Rubio is even close at 4.0. The next worst player averages 3.7.

i am sorry and want to move on. It is not fun to be right sometimes, and this is one of them. If Wall weren't a #1 overall pick I don't think anyone would scrutinize his play or hate on him. I want to focus on being more positive and not bringing people down. When Wall falls short I have to stop saying I told you so. I need to be a happier person myself so that I don't kick others when they are down ….

Beal, thankfully, seems like he is a great complement to Wall and he has a steady game. They play well together. Instead of focusing on what Wall doesn't do well I see him as someone who isn't a liability when Beal is on his game. John Wall an asset they may choose to trade or someone they actually can build around, just so long as they understand his worth good and bad.

[nate33]

You are right. Using more recent data from basketball reference:

at the rim he's .595
from 3-10, he is .340
from 10-16, he is .273
from 16-23, he is .374
from 3-point, he is .062

So, worse from the rim, better from 3-9, worse from 10-16, and better from 16-23. Overall, it looks like a wash. His total percentage on "jump shots" from last year was .285. This year, it's .321. Unfortunately, he is shooting a much higher proportion of jumpers so his overall FG% has dropped from .423 to .415

[DCZards]

i Instead of focusing on what Wall doesn't do well I see him as someone who isn't a liability when Beal is on his game. John Wall an asset they may choose to trade or someone they actually can build around, just so long as they understand his worth good and bad.

I thnk that's the bottom line--understanding Wall's worth, understanding what he is and is not. Yes, he was the #1 pick but does that really matter at this point? Does it really matter if he's better or worse than Rubio, Irving, etc. and in what ways?

I really don't think any of those things will matter when it comes to resigning Wall. I think the only thing that will matter for the Zards (or any other team) is "what have you done for me lately." And, probably, how hard are you working to improve those aspects of your game that are weak and are you making noticeable strides. Those are the things that will, for the most part, determine how much money John will be offered.

[jivelikenice]

You are right. Using more recent data from basketball reference:

at the rim he's .595
from 3-10, he is .340
from 10-16, he is .273
from 16-23, he is .374
from 3-point, he is .062

So, worse from the rim, better from 3-9, worse from 10-16, and better from 16-23. Overall, it looks like a wash. His total percentage on "jump shots" from last year was .285. This year, it's .321. Unfortunately, he is shooting a much higher proportion of jumpers so his overall FG% has dropped from .423 to .415

A jump from 29% to 37% on 16 ft to 23 ft Js is a decent amount. That in addition to the 4% jump in FT percentage shows some growth, but I'm hesitant until we see it play out over the course of the season for a better sample size. Expecting a huge spurt may have beeen unrealistic, but if he can keep this up and have a similar jump next yr, he might become a serviceable shooter.

He does have to improve at the basket. I wonder if he's hesitant to take contact coming off the injury?...or maybe he just needs to improve his strength and work for better looks at the basket.

Regrading the 3 pt line, I know a lot of folks have posted that he should never have stopped taking 3s. I think a work in progress shooter should stay within his range save for the corner 3. He should focus on that shot first, then work his way out from here over time....

[AFM]

Real talk, has Wall had a dunk so far this year?

[The Consiglieri]

Ricky Rubio, whose draft rights were traded away by EG for one year of Foye and Miller, is a better basketball player than John Wall.

Not to defend EG but Dan Fagen (Rubio and Gil's agent) made it emphatically clear that Rubio would not play for the Wiz.

That little tidbit doesn't seem to be mentioned enough when Rubio is brought up.

That's because it's irrelevant. Rubio stayed in Europe for plenty of years following the draft, and Arenas was effectively done as a Wizard six months after that hideous trade with Gun Gate. So the Fegan deal would have been resolved in less than half of a year.

There's no defending that hideous trade, I said it at the time, and Fegan's statements are totally irrelevant.

[dangermouse]

Real talk, has Wall had a dunk so far this year?

A few, and an oop or two, all in the open court though.

He hasnt thrown one on someone's head yet, I don't think he quite has the same lift to do that just yet.

[jivelikenice]

Fegan absolutely would have been an issue but that doesn't defend EG's decision. Even if he was hell bent on trading the pick for vets who could help the existing core, he should have waited until draft day. With Rubio on the board at 5, we could have driven the price up for the pick. It was a mistake....

[nate33]

Real talk, has Wall had a dunk so far this year?

In his rookie year, he had 26 dunks in 69 games (.38 per game)
Last year, he had 47 dunks in 66 games (.71 per game)
This year, he has had 6 dunks in 26 games (.23 per game)

[sfam]

I get that many here have given up on Wall and feel demoralized for having put their hopes in the guy. I just don't know that I believe he's been given the best chance to improve yet. Wall came in to a team of complete knuckleheads who couldn't shoot, and was expected to somehow turn this team around. Only this year has he had a real team around him, with veteran leadership, but he was out injured for a substantial period. Yes, it would be great had we seen some real jumps in progress. But I'm holding out judgement for another year on the guy.

I do not believe Wall's top game has been reached, not by a long shot. Yes, its possible he's reached his peak, I just think we've call this one too early. He still can be an all-star. This gets at the perceived value point. Yes, maybe we can get something decent out of this. But it would be even better if we got an all star out of this, meaning John Wall.

[Induveca]

After 3 years, what you see is pretty much what you get. Wall is a solid starting PG.

Let's just be happy he's that good. If someone offers him the max, let him leave.

[pancakes3]

Does it really matter if he's better or worse than Rubio, Irving, etc. and in what ways?

It matters come time to lawyer up and negotiate that extension.

[montestewart]

Does it really matter if he's better or worse than Rubio, Irving, etc. and in what ways?

It matters come time to lawyer up and negotiate that extension.

That's where Leonsis needs to retain fishercob to come in and play hardball.

[nate33]

I get that many here have given up on Wall and feel demoralized for having put their hopes in the guy. I just don't know that I believe he's been given the best chance to improve yet. Wall came in to a team of complete knuckleheads who couldn't shoot, and was expected to somehow turn this team around. Only this year has he had a real team around him, with veteran leadership, but he was out injured for a substantial period. Yes, it would be great had we seen some real jumps in progress. But I'm holding out judgement for another year on the guy.

I do not believe Wall's top game has been reached, not by a long shot. Yes, its possible he's reached his peak, I just think we've call this one too early. He still can be an all-star. This gets at the perceived value point. Yes, maybe we can get something decent out of this. But it would be even better if we got an all star out of this, meaning John Wall.

I don't think Wall has peaked, but I do believe that his peak won't be very impressive. Right now, he's a below average starting PG. He isn't even in the top 15. I think he'll peak at around average, or maybe slightly above. But I don't think he'll crack the top 10 for any length of time.

There are worse things than having an average starting PG, so it's not like we should dump the guy or anything. But if we could fool another team into giving us a pick or prospect that is likely to pan out to be above average at his position, we need to consider it.

[truwizfan4evr]

If Wall can improve his jumper like rondo or J Kidd did, Does anyone think he has a chance to be a all-star? What holds him back is not just the jump shot the choices he makes on the court the bad turnovers. He still could improve on both of those things.