Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[Deivy202]

The article you quote does not say the Wizards are offering Wall a maximum contract. It says they're "expected" to offer one.

IBTL

Do you really believe Ernie is not gonna offer Wall a max contract? and its a course presented to CSN.

[Nivek]

The article you quote does not say the Wizards are offering Wall a maximum contract. It says they're "expected" to offer one.

IBTL

Do you really believe Ernie is not gonna offer Wall a max contract? and its a course presented to CSN.

Yep, I do expect Ernie to offer a max contract. But that's not what this story is "reporting." In fact, this story isn't "reporting" anything. It's a guy speculating. And using crappy analysis to do it, too.

[TheKingOfVa360]

The article you quote does not say the Wizards are offering Wall a maximum contract. It says they're "expected" to offer one.

IBTL

Do you really believe Ernie is not gonna offer Wall a max contract? and its a course presented to CSN.

If Wall can play half as good as he has been playing the last two weeks then he deserves the max. He will keep improving.

[Deivy202]

The article you quote does not say the Wizards are offering Wall a maximum contract. It says they're "expected" to offer one.

IBTL

Do you really believe Ernie is not gonna offer Wall a max contract? and its a course presented to CSN.

Yep, I do expect Ernie to offer a max contract. But that's not what this story is "reporting." In fact, this story isn't "reporting" anything. It's a guy speculating. And using crappy analysis to do it, too.

sources told CSN Washington.

[nuposse04]

half of 24-11-5 isn't really max worthy....

I think at 19-9-4...might as well. Max contracts should really be reserved for top 8 players in the league IMO, but every team as to overpay these days. Hopefully he leaves a little on the table like the heat/arenas.

[Ruzious]

half of 24-11-5 isn't really max worthy....

I think at 19-9-4...might as well. Max contracts should really be reserved for top 8 players in the league IMO, but every team as to overpay these days. Hopefully he leaves a little on the table like the heat/arenas.

Remember, there are different tiers for max contract players. For players in the NBA 6 years or less, the max is 25% of the cap (which was 14,511,000 in 2010-2011). For players in the NBA 7-9 years, it's 30% of the cap (17,413,200). And for players in the NBA longer than 9 years, it's 35% of the cap (20,315,400). But there is the Derrick Rose rule - Players coming off their first contract could get up to 30% if they were chosen the NBA's MVP or they were voted to start 2 all-star games or they were selected All NBA twice. So, if Lebron and Wall both sign max contracts after next season, Bron's max would be a lot higher than Wall's.

[tontoz]

In Deivy's original post he quoted the article as saying Wall would be RFA this summer. Looks like the author went back and edited his gaffe.

[hands11]

I mean ... it looks like over night he has fixed to his two biggest obstacles that were limiting his upside. Pace and everything that comes with that like TOs, pressing, change of pace drives, etc. And shooting, which will open the floor even more for him and others..

Suggesting he has fixed his shot "overnight" doesn't give Wall credit for the work he's been putting in. Even though it wasn't falling, John's shot has been looking better the past few weeks....and some of us had been saying that.

Fixed it in games.... And yes, some of us have commented on him having better form in games when he had.

Of course he have been practicing. Some of us have commented on that as well.

[sfam]

Wow, I disappear to another country for a week or so, and it looks like Wall is back to being a Franchise player. If this is the type of motivation Wall is displaying to get a max contract, we definitely shouldn't offer him anything this summer. Lets see him continue to work on his game so that he comes back next year with a PER in the low 20s.

[Higga]

I'm fine with offering him an extension, but no way would I max him out. He has played really well recently but he's still not a star and max contracts should be saved for stars.

[nate33]

I'm fine with offering him an extension, but no way would I max him out. He has played really well recently but he's still not a star and max contracts should be saved for stars.

Exactly. So far in his career, Wall has played like a second tier star in the same general range as Rajon Rondo, Stephen Curry, JRue Holiday and Ty Lawson. And frankly, he hasn't even been as good as those guys and needs bonus points based on hype and "potential" to really be placed on the same tier. Those guys are all paid in the $11-12M a year range. Objectively speaking, it would be overpaying a bit to pay Wall that much.

I'd go ahead and offer him a contract in that range as a good will gesture because I'm reasonably confident that he'll reach that level, even if he isn't quite there yet. But if Wall wants a full max contract, all he has to do is earn it. The way he can earn it is to stop talking about an extension now, and come back next year and blow everyone away with his production. Then he'll deserve a 5-year full max contract and everyone will be happy.

[jivelikenice]

^Or he plays up to his full potential, the team is ehhh, and someone comes with a max offer when he's a RFA and he won't sing long-term here. If its budgeted, why not create some continuity on this roster and focus on building the parts around the pieces we have? It seems like ppl get hung up over the term max, but we're talking about a league where most players are overpaid. Nene, Okafor, Ariza....All three earn more then what we'd like to pay them, but we're going to draw the line in the sand over Wall? Considering Okariza are coming off the books soon and Nene will be off the books by the time Beal is due his extension....It's not a big deal. I'm frankly more concerned about potentially overpaying Webster.

[nate33]

^Or he plays up to his full potential, the team is ehhh, and someone comes with a max offer when he's a RFA and he won't sing long-term here. If its budgeted, why not create some continuity on this roster and focus on building the parts around the pieces we have? It seems like ppl get hung up over the term max, but we're talking about a league where most players are overpaid. Nene, Okafor, Ariza....All three earn more then what we'd like to pay them, but we're going to draw the line in the sand over Wall? Considering Okariza are coming off the books soon and Nene will be off the books by the time Beal is due his extension....It's not a big deal. I'm frankly more concerned about potentially overpaying Webster.

*sigh*

You apparently do not understand the way restricted free agency works. If someone comes along with a max offer and John Wall agrees to it, we have the right to match. When we match, Wall is obliged to play here for the duration of the contract. The only way Wall can avoid signing a long term deal with Washington is if he chooses to take the 1-year $9.7M qualifying offer (presumably turning down a max or near-max long term contract in the process).

There is no downside to waiting until Summer 2014 before inking Wall to an extension.

[DCZards]

You apparently do not understand the way restricted free agency works. If someone comes along with a max offer and John Wall agrees to it, we have the right to match. When we match, Wall is obliged to play here for the duration of the contract. The only way Wall can avoid signing a long term deal with Washington is if he chooses to take the 1-year $9.7M qualifying offer (presumably turning down a max or near-max long term contract in the process).

There is no downside to waiting until Summer 2014 before inking Wall to an extension.

Nate, I agree with both you and jivelike to some extent. I can see offering Wall a contract similar to Curry and Lawson during the offseason and, if he doesn't accept, waiting until after next season to see if he's earned max money.

However, I think jive is right when he says that people freak out over the idea of "max money" and that there are several NBA players making max who probably haven't earned it...and why should it be any different with Wall since the idea is to build around him and his value is probably going to end up being close to max money anyway.

Also, Nate, on the one hand you point out that Wall can avoid signing a long term deal in D.C. by taking the qualifying offer in 2014. Then you say that there's no downside to waiting until the Summer of 2014 to make him a max (or less than max) offer. Well, he could take the qualifying offer and leave after the 2014-2015 season UFA, right? If so, I'd consider that a downside. Isn't that sorta how Dwight Howard forced his way out of Orlando?

[tontoz]

Also, Nate, on the one hand you point out that Wall can avoid signing a long term deal in D.C. by taking the qualifying offer in 2014. Then you say that there's no downside to waiting until the Summer of 2014 to make him a max (or less than max) offer. Well, he could take the qualifying offer and leave after the 2014-2015 season UFA, right? If so, I'd consider that a downside. Isn't that sorta how Dwight Howard forced his way out of Orlando?

Howards situation was completely different. He was in the last year of his contract and due to be a UFA that summer. Orlando could have either traded him or risk letting him walk for nothing.

The odds of Wall taking the QO instead of a lucrative long term deal is pretty remote. I don't think there have been many high profile RFAs that have done that. Ben Gordon did it and that was only after Chicago yanked the deal they had on the table.

I have seen a few lower profile players do it.

Howard could have terminated his contract a year earlier since he had an ETO but he chose not to. Probably a mistake.

[nate33]

Also, Nate, on the one hand you point out that Wall can avoid signing a long term deal in D.C. by taking the qualifying. Then you say that there's no downside to waiting until the Summer of 2014. Well, he could take the qualifying offer and leave after the 2014-2015 season, right? I consider that a downside. Isn't that sorta how Dwight Howard forced his way out of Orlando?

Wall could only force his way out of DC if he is willing to take a huge paycut.

Let's say for argument's sake that management refused to extend Wall this summer, Wall blows up next year and deserves a max contract, but he's bitter at management and doesn't want to sign in Washington. The only way out for Wall would be to take the $9.7M qualifying offer. In 2015, he would have to sign somewhere else as an unrestricted free agent. The pool of suitors would be small because it would have to be a team with cap room. Furthermore, that team could only offer a 4-year deal, not a 5-year deal, and the 4-year deal would have 4.5% raises, not the 7.5% raises that we can offer.

So, assuming Wall leaves DC, his salary over the 5 years starting in Summer 2014 would look like this:
2014 - $9.7M (QO)
2015 - $13.7M
2016 - $14.3M
2017 - $14.9M
2018 - $15.4M
Total over 5 years: $68.2M

If he instead swallowed his pride and signed with Washington, it would look like this:
2014 - 13.7M
2015 - 14.7M
2016 - 15.8M
2017 - 16.8M
2018 - 17.8M
Total over 5 years: $78.8M

Wall walks away from $10M just because his feelings are hurt that we didn't extend a max offer a year early? I think not. Also note that in Scenario 1, we are assuming Wall doesn't get hurt during his QO year, and we are assuming that some under-the-cap team does indeed offer him the max, which wouldn't be a sure thing at the time Wall made the decision to accept the QO.

The Dwight Howard scenario was different. Howard was coming off of his 2nd contract. He was an unrestricted free agent so Orlando had no leverage.

[jivelikenice]

^Or he plays up to his full potential, the team is ehhh, and someone comes with a max offer when he's a RFA and he won't sing long-term here. If its budgeted, why not create some continuity on this roster and focus on building the parts around the pieces we have? It seems like ppl get hung up over the term max, but we're talking about a league where most players are overpaid. Nene, Okafor, Ariza....All three earn more then what we'd like to pay them, but we're going to draw the line in the sand over Wall? Considering Okariza are coming off the books soon and Nene will be off the books by the time Beal is due his extension....It's not a big deal. I'm frankly more concerned about potentially overpaying Webster.

*sigh*

You apparently do not understand the way restricted free agency works. If someone comes along with a max offer and John Wall agrees to it, we have the right to match. When we match, Wall is obliged to play here for the duration of the contract. The only way Wall can avoid signing a long term deal with Washington is if he chooses to take the 1-year $9.7M qualifying offer (presumably turning down a max or near-max long term contract in the process).

There is no downside to waiting until Summer 2014 before inking Wall to an extension.

I do understand and I do think that him turning down an extension with us at the end of next season and playing out the one-year qualifying offer is a distration and a problem we just don't need. This franchise needs stability and growth, not distractions and constant roster upheaval. To say there's no downside is shortsighted. You also have the impact on FA. Do you know that Martell definitively stays here w/o knowing that Wall is part of that future? If he's picking between MLE offers, it might be part of his decision....

[nate33]

Ben Gordon did it and that was only after Chicago yanked the deal they had on the table.

I have seen a few lower profile players do it.

It's also worth noting that Ben Gordon was never even offered a max deal. He was offered a 5-year, $58M offer by the Bulls starting at about $10M. He instead took the $6.4M qualifying offer. The next year, Detroit offered 5-years $58M (the same offer that Chicago made) and Gordon took it. The net result was more or less break-even for Gordon. Although if he stuck with Chicago, he would have finished his big contract a year sooner and hit the free agency market a year younger.

It wasn't quite the same situation because Gordon knew when he took that initial $4M pay cut that he had at least a chance of earning all that money back and then some by signing a bigger, fatter contract at the end of his QO year. With Wall, the moment he accepts the qualifying offer, he is condemning himself to a fate where he is guaranteed to earn a full $10M less (over 5 years) than the max contract offered by Washington.

[jivelikenice]

Last time we squabbled over a couple of million with a young player, we ended up having to pay Juwan Howard $100 MM. (not really applicable at all based on the changes in the CBA, but why even create a potentially negative atmosphere over an amount that long-term won't really impact the course of the franchise?)

[DCZards]

Didn't remember that Dwight was coming off his second contract. Totally different situation. My bad.

However, it's simply not true that there's no "downside" to not offering Wall max money (or close to max) this summer. (Not saying that the Zards should.) Wall wouldn't be the first player to take less money to go to a situation and place that he preferred....for whatever reason. And, if it's someplace like NY or LA (to play with Dwight ), Wall could make up in endorsements that $10 mil or so he lost by not signing with the Zards.