Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LII "Lottery/Draft" Edition)

[trebone]

I am firmly on the Noel bandwagon with the way Smart and Mclemore have played late into the season. At least if you bust a 1st go with someone with a chance to be an allstar, Camby is his ceiling IMO and that would be excellent next to Vucci

Unless our team doctors say to take him off the board after examining all the medical info ands records on the knee (or anthing else serious), For OUR team, In THIS draft, I am as rock solid on him as #1 as i can be. What he already does, and what his strengths already are, bring exactly what this team needs.

AFTER Noel is where i am murky on who to take. All of the others, (Smart/McLemore/Burke/McCollum/Porter/Bennett/and MCW all need to develop into a different type of player then they are for us to be sucessful.

He (Noel) has by far the highest probability to be able to be/become exactly what WE need him to be in the NBA, mainly because all we need is everything that he already currently does, always has done and he already is.

With all the guards, we would need them to basically become much better players with much better production then they had even at the NCAA level or it is a bust.

IF he ever develops anything else, anything at all, for instance an improved FT%, short range jumper, any semblence of a post move...strength.....anything....It is all just gravy. What we need is the defensive impact to make our other prospects
(Vucevic/Harkless & Harris) even better. By covering up defensive holes it allows them to all play to strengths and in turn be more valuable.

http://www.ukathletics.com/blog/2012/12 ... mpact.html

More than 100 (101) of Noel’s 106 blocks have come in the paint, and 69 have been at the rim. Noel is recording a higher percentage of his blocks in the paint (95.3 percent) than Davis did last season (83.3 percent).

Noel has kept 85 of his 106 blocks in bounds (80.2 percent), with 57 of those 85 leading to Kentucky defensive rebounds. Overall, 53.8 percent of Noel’s blocks have resulted in Kentucky possessions, and his blocked shots have led to 58 points (2.4 points per game).

Even when he isn’t blocking shots, Noel is an elite post-up defender. He ranks first in the country in fewest points per post-up play allowed, among the 39 players to defend at least 75 plays. He held opponents to 30 percent shooting and forced a turnover on 28 percent of post-up plays, the highest rate in the country.

http://sports.yahoo.com/kentucky/blog/w ... ege,wp3304

[Last Guardian]

I have warmed up to draft Noel. It seems like he knows what he is...a defensive player, and we aren't going to get stuck with drama queen who wants to be an offensive star.

[tiderulz]

and then you read this,

Noel's torn ACL might have been linked to an injury he suffered during his sophomore year in high school. According to this report from The Courier-Journal, Noel fractured the growth plate in his left knee and was forced to sit out the entire season.

Instead of waiting for the knee to fully recover, the lanky forward rushed back to the court to play AAU ball during the summer. It's not a sure thing that the high school injury is the reason for the torn ACL, but complications can arise if the knee does not fully heal.

"If the leg healed awkwardly and (Noel) had a malalignment in that knee, that could predispose him to future injuries in that leg," Dr. Robin West told the Courier-Journal.

[BadMofoPimp]

I have warmed up to draft Noel. It seems like he knows what he is...a defensive player, and we aren't going to get stuck with drama queen who wants to be an offensive star.

He may know what he is, but his body may not.

[flying_mollusk]

Sorry, but Noel is a guy that has suffered two major injuries that cost him a year of basketball in something like a four year span. Both injuries deal with the knee, and could be directly related. Arent there red flags all over this?

Id rather find away to trade down and snag Oladipo.

[rcklsscognition]

and then you read this,

Noel's torn ACL might have been linked to an injury he suffered during his sophomore year in high school. According to this report from The Courier-Journal, Noel fractured the growth plate in his left knee and was forced to sit out the entire season.

Instead of waiting for the knee to fully recover, the lanky forward rushed back to the court to play AAU ball during the summer. It's not a sure thing that the high school injury is the reason for the torn ACL, but complications can arise if the knee does not fully heal.

"If the leg healed awkwardly and (Noel) had a malalignment in that knee, that could predispose him to future injuries in that leg," Dr. Robin West told the Courier-Journal.

Question is, can you examine the knee now and see that? Did the doc who just went in there check it? If so, what is he saying? That's what I'd be wanting to know. You can say all you want about bad things that could happen, but someone has to be able to check on something like that. Is it possible to see a malalignment?

[tiderulz]

and then you read this,

Noel's torn ACL might have been linked to an injury he suffered during his sophomore year in high school. According to this report from The Courier-Journal, Noel fractured the growth plate in his left knee and was forced to sit out the entire season.

Instead of waiting for the knee to fully recover, the lanky forward rushed back to the court to play AAU ball during the summer. It's not a sure thing that the high school injury is the reason for the torn ACL, but complications can arise if the knee does not fully heal.

"If the leg healed awkwardly and (Noel) had a malalignment in that knee, that could predispose him to future injuries in that leg," Dr. Robin West told the Courier-Journal.

Question is, can you examine the knee now and see that? Did the doc who just went in there check it? If so, what is he saying? That's what I'd be wanting to know. You can say all you want about bad things that could happen, but someone has to be able to check on something like that. Is it possible to see a malalignment?

I can agree with what you say. To me it means, he is not a clear cut #1 prospect.

[BadMofoPimp]

I can agree with what you say. To me it means, he is not a clear cut #1 prospect.

Would you, as a GM, like to be the one responsible for drafting potentially the greatest bust in NBA history if chosen number 1 and he never pans out.

[rcklsscognition]

It'd certainly be easier if he was off the board when we drafted. Might not have that luxury.

[Bensational]

Noel's 2 injuries to the same knee within a 4 year span, at a young age, suggest he's lacking in 2 underrated elements that really separate the stars from the rest - durability and body control.

LeBron, Durant, KG, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Jordan, Olajuwan, etc all managed to play without major injuries until later into their careers (if at all). most of these guys were/are hyper athletic, and attacked rims through NBA players night in and night out, without an injury. their bodies are more adept at taking the wear and tear. they also managed to do so without landing and running into a pole. they had/have better body control once they're in the air.

on the flip side is Blake Griffin who plays recklessly, and has had a major injury already at a young age, and he's bounced back well. his body is also built for the riggors of the NBA. Can Noel add the muscle to battle against NBA bigs? Can his frame take the extra weight and become more durable on top of that?

Noel is just a major risk, IMO. He's got great talents, (I'm gushing at his block rate in the paint which Neon posted), but for me, his health will always be a concern. Do I trust Orlando Magic team doctors with his future health? The guys don't have a strong track record for quality player health, so no, i don't.

[OrlChamps2030]

Would you, as a GM, like to be the one responsible for drafting potentially the greatest bust in NBA history if chosen number 1 and he never pans out.

This logic is a bit silly to me. How would Noel be the "greatest bust in NBA history" in one of the weakest drafts in NBA history? If you're so afraid of drafting a bust you should jump on the Zeller or Porter bandwagon. Those guys will be solid NBA players.


And Ben, what about Kyrie Irving? Also IIRC Michael Jordan broke his foot his second year in the league.

[BadMofoPimp]

Noel's 2 injuries to the same knee within a 4 year span, at a young age, suggest he's lacking in 2 underrated elements that really separate the stars from the rest - durability and body control.

Noel is just a major risk, IMO. He's got great talents, (I'm gushing at his block rate in the paint which Neon posted), but for me, his health will always be a concern. Do I trust Orlando Magic team doctors with his future health? The guys don't have a strong track record for quality player health, so no, i don't.

I think the Pistons and Suns have the best doctors in the NBA and both have top 10 picks. But, Charlotte and Orlando are just not good destinations for Noel.

I bet the "Gm's" that are raving about Noel are really Magic and/or Bobcats people trying to hype up Noel so they can trade down.

[KingRobb02]

Blake Griffin has had 3 knee surgeries in the past 5 years, and also missed his entire rookie season. Is anyone afraid to take a chance on him? If you don't like Noel, it's cool. But the knee shouldn't be the reason.

[rcklsscognition]

It's a legitimate concern. I would imagine you could figure out if that HS injury was as bad as that one doctor said. Did his growth plate really get messed up? If not, the last injury was pretty flukey.

[G-Heel]

Would you, as a GM, like to be the one responsible for drafting potentially the greatest bust in NBA history if chosen number 1 and he never pans out.

This logic is a bit silly to me. How would Noel be the "greatest bust in NBA history" in one of the weakest drafts in NBA history? If you're so afraid of drafting a bust you should jump on the Zeller or Porter bandwagon. Those guys will be solid NBA players.


And Ben, what about Kyrie Irving? Also IIRC Michael Jordan broke his foot his second year in the league.

Agree. He wouldn't be the greatest bust even if he doesn't pan out. This draft is very weak, no one should blame Hennigan for taking a risk.

I was on Noel wagon but after hearing of the high school injury I don't really care anymore. I'm just glad I'm not the one making the decision.

[IGotDaMagicInMe]

if we dont get #1 for noel i wouldn't mind #2 mclmeour. i saw his highlight real and he looks sick lol

I'm sure it did, but thats why you don't trust highlight reels

[KillMonger]

Wow man just had a "wake up in cold sweat" moment, Thinking about drafting Noel had me thinking about another guy that was drafted a few years ago. Similar frame and has a similar calling card of defense and rebounding more or less. Actually this guy may have been bigger than Noel coming out of College, anybody remember Hassan Whiteside? Here was the Nbadraft.net profile on him, http://www.nbadraft.net/players/hassan-whiteside

Sound familiar? maybe maybe not, better question is where is Hassan Whiteside now? now i know it's a slippery slope comparing Whiteside to Noel but they did have similar skillsets in college didn't they? IDK i'm just a tad leary on Noel, I trust Hennigan and if he's on the board whenever we pick and we select him then i'm sure Henny has done his homework on him and sees something in him but Noel is not a clear cut number 1 big man like Blake was

[Cigamodnalro]

if we dont get #1 for noel i wouldn't mind #2 mclmeour. i saw his highlight real and he looks sick lol

I'm sure it did, but thats why you don't trust highlight reels

Are you implying that Pat Garrity was NOT a great dunker?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AzSlfoJyKg[/youtube]

[LetItRain]

Actually, now I just want the magic draft Noel to "see" if BMP's head will spin around in circles and explode

[Orlando Prodigy]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.