Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Ruzious]

Nerlens Noel stock went up by having surgery and not having a chance to look bad in the tourney like all the other draft prospects.

I
Great line and perhaps true.

Michael Carter-Williams is a guard that struggles with his shot AND decision making. That's a really bad combination of flaws to have. He has a TS% of .495 and he's old for a sophomore. He's not someone I'd consider drafting.

He reminds me of Evan Turner. I'd move him to shooting guard if he learns to shoot.

After further research, Kelly Olynyk reminds me m ore of Brook Lopez than Alex Len or anyone els]e for that matter. Excellent hands, skilled out to 3 pt range. Developed low post game. I like the fact he remade his game last year, shows he's serious about playing at the next level.

Unfortunately, just like Brook Lopez, Olynyk is not much of a defender or rebounder and may not be the physcially toughest guy around. Olynyk may need a shot blocker like Ibaka beside him to cover up for his defensive shortcomings.

Lopez' physical strength gives him an advantage - he can impose his will on weaker players. Olynyk is just a finesse player. I don't see that working well in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

And the thing about Olnyk is - he's a really good athlete! He has blow-by ability and vertical explosiveness. Very few bigs have his speed. Physically I think his weakness is not great strength. I would say Olynyk's body is quite similar to Dirk's all around, and that's a compliment because Dirk may go down as one of the all time most underrated athletes (watching very young Dirk tapes, his first step is shockingly great)

I like Cody Zeller more than most, but him v Olynyk is a near no brainer for me at this point. Olynyk is the better athlete, longer, more skilled (shooting game) and was the more dominant college player. Game set match.

Dr Pos, just so I understand where you're coming from, how would you compare Olynyk's athleticism to Noel's?

[Dr Positivity]

Oh Noel is in a different class athletically. Noel is a total freak. For a PF the type of athlete that comes along a few times a generation at most.

With that said. On the topic of Noel I'm far more out on him than most are, if talking as a whole. Even amazing physical tools aren't enough to me if the rest isn't there. Goodwin is the player people seem to be accepting this more for. He also has arguable generational physical talents for a 2 in my opinion. But if a perimeter guy has no jumper and weak instincts/control, it likely doesn't matter if he can get to the rim at will. With Noel other than the upped college production, people in general seem more forgiving of a big when the skill game and offensive fluidity isn't there compared to physical tools. But I'm not sure if there's reason to be, especially with how offensive first and increasingly perimeter orientated the the PF is in modern day. Like you compare him to someone like Zeller, who's getting crapped up upside wise for not having elite physical tools. But is Noel's skill game barely having a pulse, any less of a weakness??? Hell Zeller's athleticism is better than Noel's skill for sure. Former is average and the latter is bad.

This draft confuses the sh*t out me as a whole. By the way I judge talent my big board right looks like

Perenn all-star talent:
Bennett

Blue Chip starter talent (not TRUE all-star, but maybe can make it in 1x-2x as a cameo?)
Olynyk
Dieng, Oladipo, Len, McLemore
Zeller, Smart, McCollum, Withey, Karasev

Rank with blue chip talents, but I don't trust them to reach it for enigmatic reasons:
Nash, Leslie, Gobert, Austin

Other starter talents:
McDermott, Burke, Adetokunbo
McAdoo, Porter, Franklin, Noel, Goodwin, Poythress, Kelly, Cauley-Stein

Avoid like VD: Shabazz, MCW, Plumlee

I think this draft will be like 2011 where the winner is the team picking 15th who gets Jeff Withey or Gorgui DIeng, or picking 12th and getting CJ McCollum, or picking 25th and getting Doug McDermott or Ryan Kelly. The teams in the top 10 OTOH will have a hard time meeting expectations.

Other than the guys in my enigmatic group, the player I'm struggling with the most is McLemore. If he was able to attack the rim and create offense in the paint at even an above average rate (not elite) I'd have him as the #1 guy and a future star. But without the ballhandling that part of his game just isn't there right now. Yet the difficult part is this is spite of having all the athleticism needed for it. I could see McLemore either not attacking the rim whatsoever in the NBA, or unleashing his on ball game and becoming dynamic at it. And that range is HUGE for what he'll be.

[stevemcqueen1]

Dr. Positivity, you really think Olynyk is a better athlete than Zeller?

Olynyk runs fairly well and has good agility, but the thing that jumps out at me about him is how slow he is. He has no explosion to his game. He's very skilled but he executes his post moves at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. He's very fluid but he's got no quickness. To my eye, Zeller is a noticeably better athlete and has a much better first step than Olynyk.

The differences in their caliber of production are negligible IMO since both produced at an elite level. But it should definitely factor that Olynyk did nothing his first two seasons and put up his numbers as a junior in a mid major conference. Zeller did his thing immediately as a freshman and sophomore in the best conference in the country this past year.

[fishercob]

I am impressed by Olynyk's skill. His spin-move evokes Dirk Nowitzi, and it enables him to create space to get shots off inside and out. That said, I'm wary of drafting a that I know (or at least believe) is going to struggle on D and on the boards. I know it's counter intuitive because the WIz have been all D and no O for most of the season, but moving forward I'm quite hopeful of how the offense will grow around Wall and Beal.

But team defense is so dependent on bigs. I just don't see a team with Olynyk getting big minutes at PF or C cutting the mustard defensively.

Which brings me back to Len. As Dat pointed out, size and smarts are so much more important for bigs than "athleticism" is. The top defenses in the league are the Pacers, Grizzlies, Spurs, Wizards, Thunder, Bulls, Celtics, Clippers, Heat. Sure, having Ibaka or Deandre can help, but having a moose with a brain like Hibbert or Marc Gasol is better. Okafor, Nene, Duncan, Splitter, Perkins, Noah, KG, Bosh -- all big enough guys who know how to be in the right place.

So I would lean toward Len over Olynyk, unless my scouting/intel told me Len wasn't a worker or was a big dummy. As CCJ said, Len is a baby and has time to grow into his body. I think what you see is what you get with Olynyk.

[Dark Faze]

Olynyk has shown improvement each year though. 62% TS in his soph year despite not getting a lot of minutes (enough of a sample size for it to count though).

If the rebounding percentages were vastly in Lens favor I think there might be an argument but they are virtually identical. Olynyk is much more coordinated, farrrrr and away better offensively, more intelligent, appears to be mentally tougher, etc.

We just haven't really seen a prospect like Olynyk in terms of offense since...well, maybe Bosh? Bosh was clearly more athletic and started bullying his way to the stripe as he gained weight. Olynyk strikes me as having more IQ and being more savy in terms of being able to draw fouls (and flop).

Olynyk has to be the pick. Olynyk is probably in the gym now. His strength gains for the draft combine are going to be huge.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also think Nerlens Noel has more offensive skill than people suspect. I think he'll be more of a scoring factor in the NBA. Calipari brought him along slowly in the offense towards the beginning of the season and it wasn't until a few weeks before his injury that he started to show a nice comfort level as a scorer. He doesn't have an advanced post game. But he's got a set of running hook shots that he can go to and he's a finisher. He's a terrible jump shooter and ft shooter. But the word is he's actually got really good ball handling skills and I've seen a couple videos of him dribbling the ball and his handle is surprisingly tight. I think he's going to be a big threat to drive against bigs and once he gets strong, he'll be a scoring threat from the post just like Dwight. And as a bonus, it's clear he's got great court vision and can facilitate the offense from the top of the key like Gasol/Noah do for their teams.

I also think Nerlens was limited as a scorer this year because of his guards. Archie Goodwin and Ryan Harrow were pretty bad/disinterested as facilitators and didn't really pass him the ball in the post. I think Len gets excused (fairly) for poor guard play and Noel should have been too.

And in the end, like Gasol and Noah, Noel's physical presence and his defense is so special that any offense you get is gravy. We can reasonably expect him to grow into a better defender than both Gasol and Noah, he'll be so much more capable of them in guarding the perimeter and playing in space. I think we're headed for a decade where Anthony Davis and Nerlens split all of the DPOY awards between them.

[stevemcqueen1]

Fishercob, good post, and not to mention Alex Len is highly athletic for his size. I think your argument for Len is essentially based on him having superior upside to Olynyk, with which I agree. I think his upside is much higher, and in fact, I think Len's raw upside is second only to Noel's. Len has the biggest frame in the class by far, and he moves so well for his size. If he keeps adding strength and good weight and gets into the 260 range (very attainable IMO), he's going to be very hard to deal with. Basically, I like that he can move, he's gigantic, and he can shoot.

Athleticism does matter a great deal for bigs if they are to be certain types of players. If they are to defend in space and cover a big range of the floor, they need to be very athletic. If they are to score on post drives and perimeter drives and cuts and lobs and pogo stick their way to second chance points, they need to be very athletic.

Can a big man be good without being athletic enough to do those kinds of things? Absolutely, so long as he has the strength and skill level to do other things effectively--shoot, play positional D, rebound, score with craftiness and technique on the low block with his back to the basket, etc. Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, and Marc Gasol are all examples.

But the big man who can defend a ton of space and can easily score in all of those ways using sheer athleticism is a potential star and is simply more valuable than the highly skilled banger with limited athleticism. It's why a healthy Dwight is miles ahead of the rest of the big men in the league despite the fact he can't shoot at all and has a crude post game with very little back to the basket ISO scoring ability.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also want to say I agree with the people who like Bennett. I think he, Noel, and Zeller are the three best players in the class. I'd follow them with a second tier of Porter, McLemore, and Smart. Then I'd put Oladipo and Burke in a third tier. Len would be my fourth tier.

I think Shabazz is in the first tier of the class on pure ability and skill but I would probably pass on him because of intangible concerns. I don't like his family background and I get the feeling picking him near the beginning of the lottery is a recipe for trouble. I would have a hard time trusting him TBH. He seems very concerned with his brand. Picking him late in the lottery or in the middle of the first round where he could go to a good team and come off the bench early in his career feels like a better situation for him to be successful--somewhere he could be a low profile role player and just focus on BBall.

I think Bennett would be a great pick for us even though he'll probably be a pretty lousy defender. He's give us the ability to start three 3pt shooters around Wall while still playing normal D and being able to rebound. He can body up big guys and both Nene and Okafor would pair well with him in the front court. He could give us a lot of scoring punch and creative offensive ability for when John isn't feeling it or Nene is hurt. And I like the idea of being able to go big by playing him at the 3 for stretches. He's a very diverse player and it gives him an ability to dominate and impact a game in so many different ways. It's hard to take anything away from him because he can shoot, dribble, and score inside.

[Dark Faze]

No point in discussing guys who won't actually be there between 8-10.

Bennett and Zeller are almost assuredly gone by then.

[queridiculo]

About Len, seems to me like the kid is highly underrated on the mock draft charts.

Once teams get a chance to watch him workout does anybody really doubt that he'll creep in the top 5? I don't see how teams can pass on a kid that combines athleticism with those kind of measurements.

He's incredibly fluid at 7'1" and has a pretty decent skill set already.

If that turns out to be the Wizards pick I'd be ecstatic.

SF seems to be the sexy pick around these parts, but assuming we'd really hit at the position, can we really afford to invest that much money in wing players?

With Wall getting near max money and Beal well on his way to becoming a marquee name, it would be completely irresponsible to tie up more money for a wing player.

This may be Washington's last chance to grab a big with franchise player potential. Given Nene's inability to stay healthy and Seraphin's development, or lack thereof, a center is a must in my book.

Wish we could find a way to keep both Ariza and Webster to solve the SF position, that would make picking a big a no-brainer.

[Ruzious]

Keep in mind that Kelly Olynyk stepped away from the game for one full season and he worked on getting his body stronger. In three weeks, he will be 22 years old. Alex Len is still just 19 years old, and won't be 20 until June.

Alex Len's game logs as a 19-year old sophomore (2012-2013):
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2013/

Kelly Olynyk's game logs as a 19-yr old sophomore (2010-2011):
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2011/

If I had to choose between the two right now, I would really be torn. Len blocked 72 shots as a soph, Olynyk blocked 5. Olynyk made 12-27 college 3-point field goals as a sophomore. He shot .574 to Len's sophomore .532. Len shot 147 FTs to Olynyk's 68 as a sophomore. Len faced ACC competition.

What Olynyk has in his favor is that he was an Academic All American. He graduated already with a degree in accounting and is working on his MBA. Further, he's the son of a Canadian National Team coach. His mother was a referee (per Wiki). He played PG all the way through HS, before hitting a huge growth spurt.

Len OTOH is a massive individual who is not done filling out. He has superior athleticism for a man his size. What can he learn in a couple years?

Great points. I've been down on Len, but you and others are swaying me into thinking I over-reacted to his poor games. His stats were better than I thought. With some good coaching and hard work... who knows.

[Ruzious]

No point in discussing guys who won't actually be there between 8-10.

Bennett and Zeller are almost assuredly gone by then.

I think Bennett could easily be there because of his height, defensive questions, conditioning questions, and consistency.

[Benjammin]

No point in discussing guys who won't actually be there between 8-10.

Bennett and Zeller are almost assuredly gone by then.

I think Bennett could easily be there because of his height, defensive questions, conditioning questions, and consistency.

Minor trade-ups are also possible.
Chad Ford has Bennett at 5 and Zeller at 10, fwiw.
Draft Express has Bennett at 5 and Zeller at 3, fwiw.

I think it's quite possible that at least one of Zeller or Bennett could be there in the 8-10 range. Zeller does concern me with his short arms and difficulty playing against length, even in college.

[Ruzious]

Apparently Goodwin of KY is going to go in the 2013 draft - to my surprise. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1242380 He could conceivably go before the Wiz pick - though I wouldn't pick him. He reminds me of Wall with no point guard skills. Great athlete and penetrator but then what.

[Dat2U]

Also Dat2u - if you don't mind, what are your current thoughts on Bennett? Like him more/less than Olynyk? How would you rank the bigs in this draft?

Sorry for all then ?s, but your draft rep piqued my curiosity.

To be honest, a lot is going to depend on Bennett's measurements IMO. If he's got legit PF length, he may be too talented to pass up. The combination of size, athleticism & skill is intriguing. I think he's too big & not active enough defensive to succeed as a SF so he's going to have to make it at PF.

I'm trying to figure out is he a potential star or the next Rodney Rogers.

Olynyk is a safer bet to me right now because he's a legit 7-0 footer with a high skill level, but again the measurements may change my opinion.

Ranking the bigs at the moment:

1. Noel
2. Olynyk
3. Bennett
4. Zeller
5. Len
6. Withey
7. Goubert

[DCZards]

Apparently Goodwin of KY is going to go in the 2013 draft - to my surprise. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1242380 He could conceivably go before the Wiz pick - though I wouldn't pick him. He reminds me of Wall with no point guard skills. Great athlete and penetrator but then what.

I'm not surprised that Goodwin is going pro. He's facing reduced minutes next season with the Harrison twins coming to Kentucky. Goodwin is not ready to play at the next level and is an example of a player basically being pushed out of college.

[Dat2U]

Len actually reminds me a lot of Meyers Leonard who got drafted #11 last year. A similar type project with excellent size with some unpolished skill but lacking ideal court awareness. Leonard has shown signs of developing into a decent player. I suspect Len is right in his range as a prospect.

[TGW]

Bennett was measure at 6'7, 240 with a 7'1 wingspan last season. He might have grown to 6'8...who knows. But he has the size to be a full-time power forward IMO.

Re: Olynyk--agree with Dat2u....if he's there, I'd take him. He has the skillset of a perfect high post center. He can pass, shoot, and put it on the floor, and I imagine that you could run the offense through him in a few years. He reminds me of Brad Miller. Out of all the bigs in the draft, he's the one that I can say for sure will have a long NBA career.

If somehow Olynyk and McDermott were Wizards on draft night, I'd be highly satisfied. They aren't worldbeaters, but theyare two guys that would make the rotation immediately.

[DCZards]

I'm intrigued by Len. Half the time when I've watched Maryland he seemed to be missing in action. Other times, I see a fluid big man with a decent short jummper. Given his size and potential, Len may be just to hard to pass up if the Zards are picking in the 8-10 range.

I'd take Len over Olynyk...although I expect as we get closer to the draft Bennett may turn out to be my top choice for the hometown, assuming he's available when the Zards pick. I like Bennett's versatility for a guy with his size and build.

I also like Withey a lot and would love to see the Zards pick up a second first round pick and snag him.