payitforward wrote:Alas, more data doesn't seem to make a person better at drafting. The proof is that, after the #1 position in the draft, there seems to be no significant statistical correlation between "high-ness" of pick of a player and how good an NBA career he has. This is something Dave Berri has studied specfically, and the numbers just don't show it.
TBH, I don't think many GMs have the faintest ability to target the right players, or that their scouting staffs do. Some organizations do a good job, it's true (San Antonio being the prime example), but most are just terrible at it. And we are worse than most of them.
The problem with "data" is that GMs use it subject to selection bias and confirmation bias. They take in only the data that confirms what they want to prove. And they weigh data that confirms their prejudices more than they weigh data that denies it.
When I look at the most reputable draft site I agree.
Players like Kenneth Faried stand out like a sore thumb statistically. He did what he did year after year and he did it against NBA lottery picks as an NCAA player. He didn't just play at Morehead State. He broke records set by people named Duncan and Robinson. His team beat Dieng and Louisville in the NCAA Tourney after a key block by Faried. Before the draft I posted that Faried was a lottery pick. I was dumbfounded at not just Vesely being picked earler than Faried and by many other players. Some things are obvious.
This season's most underrated player is Doug McDermott.
Draft Express has him going mid round two and nbadraft.net has him going late round 1. Both are absurdly too low. I think all of the GMs and all of the scouts who look at how slow the guy is or how he's too short to play PF or too slow to SF need to take a look at a box score or two. Here is one:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/box ... ghton.html
McDermott had 41 points on 18 shots against Wichita State. The same Wichita team that is in the Final Four.
If you look at his game logs from this season, in just the last two games he shot 23-23 FTs. That was against Duke and Cincinnati in the NCAAs. http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2013/
What makes him a very special player is not just his high scoring at a very efficient rate. McDermott is also among the best defensive rebounders in NCAA play. A look at his game log also reveals big games by McDermott against Wisconsin, California, Arizona State, Boise State, and Akron--each team went to the NCAA tournament. Doug McDermott will be able to score in the NBA. Scouts who look at his color, height, physical attributes are totally missing the point.
http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?s ... =prospects
http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?y ... ll&sort=20
It's not a big shock that McDermott scored 29.8 points per-40 pace adjusted. What surprised me is that Doug McDermott grabbed 7.9 defensive boards per-40 pace adjusted. His defensive rebounding is right behind Withey's 7.9 and above Olynyk and Len, who were at 7.4 and 7.3. Anthony Benett also grabbed 7.8 defensive boards per-40 pace adjusted.
(Bennett is only 1 year and 3 months younger than McDermott)
What I see with McDermott is a player who if he doesn't go in the lottery will be drafted way too low. He is far too talented to not succeed in the NBA. He has the energy to battle on the boards and he cannot be left open. On a team with many talented players and a penetrating PG like Wall, Doug McDermott can play stretch four and even some SF. He does compare favorably with a player who said he sees himself in McDermott, Wally Szczerbiak.
I hope McDermott is one of the players the Wizards acquire.
