Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Floater]

I highly doubt that Len will even be there when we pick

[sfam]

I highly doubt that Len will even be there when we pick

Me too. I think he's gone by #7. I don't think we pick till #8 at the earliest.

[pancakes3]

[quote="stevemcqueen1"I'd rather get someone who can help immediately - a 3rd guard is definitely one of our top two areas of need. If we think some of the Sr. PGs in round two can honestly fit the bill, than it does make sense to try to get a 3rd Big. But I'm not sold on their quality yet.

I think a 3rd guard is our 2nd priority of need but it's a clear 2nd to the first need: a power forward. I'm a lot more confident in AJ price backing up the PG than Seraphin backing up the PF.

[sfam]

[quote="stevemcqueen1"I'd rather get someone who can help immediately - a 3rd guard is definitely one of our top two areas of need. If we think some of the Sr. PGs in round two can honestly fit the bill, than it does make sense to try to get a 3rd Big. But I'm not sold on their quality yet.

I think a 3rd guard is our 2nd priority of need but it's a clear 2nd to the first need: a power forward. I'm a lot more confident in AJ price backing up the PG than Seraphin backing up the PF.

Well, the difference there is Seraphin, after everything we've seen, still has the potential to get a clue. Price will never have the potential to be anything more than a 5th guard at best.

[stevemcqueen1]

I would be fine with McDermott. He is very efficient and is an elite shooter.

I am not so sure about Otto Porter. He isn't an other worldly athlete and doesn't appear to have any real elite skills. He isn't an elite rebounder, shooter, scorer, defender, passer, etc. I just don't see him standing out vs any number of the very good SF's in the NBA right now.

I've been harsh on Porter, been very critical of his athleticism. I think he looks a bit awkward and really gathers himself to start and stop and change directions plus he's a tad gimpy looking when he dribbles the ball up court. He's not a leaper either. But I like him a lot more than McDermott. He's a top five pick IMO and McDermott is a late teens or twenties pick at best IMO. Porter is still a better athlete than McDermott, has a better body, and has a good deal of upside left whereas I don't think McDermott does. He's fully grown and his skills are pretty much refined. Porter demonstrated rapid improvement this season and I think he's still a good ways off from reaching his ceiling.

Porter will be able to do everything pretty well. The one thing he's got that stands out from most SFs is height and length. He's long enough to play PF. He's got a good 3 ball and a crafty mid range game that's a lot better than Martell Webster's IMO. He's also a top notch rebounder for the SF position and should be as good a rebounding SF as Durant and Melo IMO. I think he's going to be a better defender than those two as well. He's very cognizant and communicative, shows leadership and some playmaking ability on this side of the ball. I think he ends up a better passer than both of Durant and Melo too. He's not on the same planet as them as a scorer. But he'll make up at least some of that massive difference by being a better defender and passer than them.

He's appealing because we could plug him in day one in this construction and not have to worry about any chemical issues or holes he'd create. He's a player that takes nothing away from the table. He won't be a star but we could draft him and forget about the SF position for the next ten years. A nice third wheel for our construction.

Ideally, I'd like a big man out of this class--either a true big man who is interchangeable at PF & C or a big bodied forward that can play PF or combo forward.

And if I had some reason to believe that Porter could eventually get into the high 230s or 240s and play a good deal of PF, that would definitely raise him on my draft board. If he's around 210 now, as skinny and tall and late blooming as he is, I think he could realistically get to 240. A little bit bigger than Webster. He came from a tiny little town in Missouri. It wouldn't surprise me if he never really weight trained before he got to college and his body might be far from maxed out.

I'm leaning towards taking him fourth in this class behind Noel, Bennett, and Zeller and ahead of McLemore. McLemore is a better pure prospect than him but Porter would be a much cleaner fit for us in this construction. At some point in a building process, you have to figure out that moment to stop amassing the most talent available and figure out how to shape it into a team. I think that Porter over more talented prospects like McLemore, Shabazz, and Smart would be where I'd draw that line. I would take Porter over them. For one thing, I think our construction has a ton of extant upside left in it no matter who we draft this year because the ceilings for John and Beal are so high. I think they'll be perennial all stars before their mid 20's and John is a transcendent talent and potential superstar IMO. We've also got a high upside long term project in Vesely who we've gotten nothing from so far. We're just going to hang on to him and see if the light bulb turns on for him, and if it ever did, he would be a very athletic defense and rebounding big that we currently lack.

Second, this is an era of perimeter dominant offense in both NBA and CBB. I think it's a great idea to build around an elite PG. And if you've got one and he's a big time distributor like Wall, it makes sense to load up on talent at SG and SF--guys that are knock down shooters and don't need the ball in their hands.

Then you can get two dirty work bigs that are interchangeable 4/5s, that rebound and play D (especially in space), set picks, fade out and hit mid range jumpers, keep the ball moving, and finish assisted buckets for a great percentage. Think of bigs like Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel, #1 overall talents even though they did not show classic big man scoring ability in college. The Thunder decided to keep Serge Ibaka over James Harden--who is clearly a better pure player than Ibaka--to achieve the kind of construction I'm talking about. Ibaka is a very limited offensive player whose scoring is pretty much catch and shoot mid range jumpers, put backs, and assisted finishes at the rim. But they decided to keep him instead of Harden because he went better with two ball dominant elite perimeter scorers than Harden and helps establish the type of construction I described. Top notch scoring ability out of a big man is gravy.

I'm not married to that type of construction, nor am I married to taking Porter. It's just something that I think could work very well. But right now, it's not likely we'll pick early enough to draft Porter.

[stevemcqueen1]

[quote="stevemcqueen1"I'd rather get someone who can help immediately - a 3rd guard is definitely one of our top two areas of need. If we think some of the Sr. PGs in round two can honestly fit the bill, than it does make sense to try to get a 3rd Big. But I'm not sold on their quality yet.

I think a 3rd guard is our 2nd priority of need but it's a clear 2nd to the first need: a power forward. I'm a lot more confident in AJ price backing up the PG than Seraphin backing up the PF.

Well, the difference there is Seraphin, after everything we've seen, still has the potential to get a clue. Price will never have the potential to be anything more than a 5th guard at best.

True. But I think focusing on the backup positions should certainly come secondary to focusing on the holes we'll have at the starting positions after next season is over. Webster is a FA this summer, Okafor and Ariza will be FAs next summer. The only long term parts of the roster that are pretty much set in stone are Wall, Beal, and Nene. Nene is interchangeable at the 4 and 5. If we've got a chance to get a long term starter at the 3, 4, or 5 in this draft, we need to take it IMO. Where we're likely to draft, the only super sub guards that I would prioritize ahead of some of the future starters are McLemore and Oladipo because they're super athletic and high upside, shoot at an elite level, and could probably play some SF in line ups with Wall and Beal. They have the potential to be top five at the SG position IMO.

I'm not crazy about Nene as the third wheel in a three player construction. Better to find a third young foundation piece to be here long term with Wall and Beal. We can worry about our depth as we go.

[Brenice]

McGary is a good fit at power forward.

[sfam]

True. But I think focusing on the backup positions should certainly come secondary to focusing on the holes we'll have at the starting positions after next season is over. Webster is a FA this summer, Okafor and Ariza will be FAs next summer. The only long term parts of the roster that are pretty much set in stone are Wall, Beal, and Nene. Nene is interchangeable at the 4 and 5. If we've got a chance to get a long term starter at the 3, 4, or 5 in this draft, we need to take it IMO. Where we're likely to draft, the only super sub guards that I would prioritize ahead of some of the future starters are McLemore and Oladipo because they're super athletic and high upside, shoot at an elite level, and could probably play some SF in line ups with Wall and Beal. They have the potential to be top five at the SG position IMO.

I'm not crazy about Nene as the third wheel in a three player construction. Better to find a third young foundation piece to be here long term with Wall and Beal. We can worry about our depth as we go.

I don't think McLemore is there when we pick. Given my druthers, I'd rather take a guard or Big over SF, but would be happy if Bennet somehow slips. I'm not sold on Oladipo yet. Olapido might be great, but I'd go with our needs up front or with a combo guard first. And again, I'm not opposed to taking a Big, as long as we see them not as a long term project, but instead look at them as contributing this year.

[Earth2Ted]

What do people think about where McGary should go and where he will go?

I don't watch much college hoops but have watched Michigan in the tournament and would be interested in your opinions.

Chad Ford has McGary up to 15th. Not sure if he will come out, but if he does, he probably goes 2nd half of lottery (7-14). Rawness, lack of production most of the season, and non-elite athleticism/overall ceiling keeps him out of top 5-6. As well as his being a year older than most of his class.

He has to be very much in the mix at our pick (8-10). He would definitely be a great addition- we could really use an unselfish, physical big man with great hands, rebounding instincts, and intensity. Even if he would be a tad short and slow by NBA standards.

[Benjammin]

Unless the Wiz get lucky and move up into the top 3, they'll be picking in the 8-10 range most likely.

If they get the first pick: Noel, obviously

So where does that leave the draft board, at 8-11?

1. SF Porter, but don't think he'll be there.
2. PF Bennett, have questions about him, would like to see how he measures, probably won't be there
3. PG Burke, if one of the bigs looks better, then he would drop on my board, probably won't be there anyway.

4. The Bigs

PF Zeller---T-rex arms really concern me, lack of strength, would like him at 15-20
C Len---If we had scouts and a GM who I trusted and they liked him
C Gobert---Just because he's foreign doesn't mean he should be eliminated from consideration, may give them too much of McGee flashbacks, as far as long-range development project
C Mitch McGarry--really intriguing, overaged for a freshman, definitely has some skills and athleticism, much better reach and length than Zeller, more explosive, not as skilled offensively
PF Olynyk--could do worse, probably a good backup in the Association.

[sfam]

Unless the Wiz get lucky and move up into the top 3, they'll be picking in the 8-10 range most likely.

If they get the first pick: Noel, obviously

So where does that leave the draft board, at 8-11?

1. SF Porter, but don't think he'll be there.
2. PF Bennett, have questions about him, would like to see how he measures, probably won't be there
3. PG Burke, if one of the bigs looks better, then he would drop on my board, probably won't be there anyway.

4. The Bigs

PF Zeller---T-rex arms really concern me, lack of strength, would like him at 15-20
C Len---If we had scouts and a GM who I trusted and they liked him
C Gobert---Just because he's foreign doesn't mean he should be eliminated from consideration, may give them too much of McGee flashbacks, as far as long-range development project
C Mitch McGarry--really intriguing, overaged for a freshman, definitely has some skills and athleticism, much better reach and length than Zeller, more explosive, not as skilled offensively
PF Olynyk--could do worse, probably a good backup in the Association.

As a Michigan fan, I absolutely love McGarry's game in the tournament. He has really good BBIQ, can rebound, especially on the offensive end, and has a nascent offensive game. But while he can block shots, he‘s not great on defense. I think McGarry would be a nice starting calibur PF, but he'll probaby take a few years to make a big impact. I like Len and Burke better, but I hope we bring him in for workouts.

[gambitx777]

Why don't we shoot for the home run and take Giannis, the greek kid? In terms of physical tools, only Noel is on par with him (along with maybe Gorbert).

We drafted ves because of his physical abilities too. we need to draft better, if that Greek kid falls to the second round, then yeah i say take him, maybe even with a late first 20-30 maybe, but not with the 10th over all pick.

[Ed Wood]

McGary has had a very solid freshman year but I'm leery of locking in on the guy who seems like the most obvious tournament riser of the draft. He isn't a guy who's overall body of work argues against being a worthwhile draftee; I dunno, maybe being a tournament darling is such a draft-warping stigma to me that I'm somehow turning it into a reason to be bearish without any particular justification.

[sfam]

Why don't we shoot for the home run and take Giannis, the greek kid? In terms of physical tools, only Noel is on par with him (along with maybe Gorbert).

We drafted ves because of his physical abilities too. we need to draft better, if that Greek kid falls to the second round, then yeah i say take him, maybe even with a late first 20-30 maybe, but not with the 10th over all pick.

I'm so not interested in taking another chance on an athletic Euro. Lets all chip in and give EG a trip to Eastern Europe for whatever he likes to do there, as long as he doesn't draft someone there. Drafting a Euro like Len who went to college here is fine because we have an apples to apples comparison. We should just acknowledge we suck at selecting folks playing across the pond.

[nate33]

McGary is a good fit at power forward.

I don't think he's a good fit at PF at all. We need a power forward with a perimeter game. I don't want McGary unless he can play center and ultimately replace Okafor.

[Benjammin]

McGary is a good fit at power forward.

I don't think he's a good fit at PF at all. We need a power forward with a perimeter game. I don't want McGary unless he can play center and ultimately replace Okafor.

We really are on the lookout for a stretch 4 if possible, and McGary is not that guy. It will be very interesting to see how Deng and McGary fare against one another. It may give one a few clues as to how McGary might project as a 5 in the pros.

[pancakes3]

I agree. McGary might make for a decent pro for somebody - just not us. Also he comes with red flags. He has almost as many 10+ rebound games in the tourney (3) as pre-tourney (4). He picked up 4 fouls in 8 minutes in the regular season finale vs Zeller. He's not a stretch 4. There are definitely more reasons against him than for him at this point. However, it'd be great if someone decides to pick him up and let someone like Bennett, Zeller, and/or Len to slide down to us in the mid/late lotto.

[stevemcqueen1]

True. But I think focusing on the backup positions should certainly come secondary to focusing on the holes we'll have at the starting positions after next season is over. Webster is a FA this summer, Okafor and Ariza will be FAs next summer. The only long term parts of the roster that are pretty much set in stone are Wall, Beal, and Nene. Nene is interchangeable at the 4 and 5. If we've got a chance to get a long term starter at the 3, 4, or 5 in this draft, we need to take it IMO. Where we're likely to draft, the only super sub guards that I would prioritize ahead of some of the future starters are McLemore and Oladipo because they're super athletic and high upside, shoot at an elite level, and could probably play some SF in line ups with Wall and Beal. They have the potential to be top five at the SG position IMO.

I'm not crazy about Nene as the third wheel in a three player construction. Better to find a third young foundation piece to be here long term with Wall and Beal. We can worry about our depth as we go.

I don't think McLemore is there when we pick. Given my druthers, I'd rather take a guard or Big over SF, but would be happy if Bennet somehow slips. I'm not sold on Oladipo yet. Olapido might be great, but I'd go with our needs up front or with a combo guard first. And again, I'm not opposed to taking a Big, as long as we see them not as a long term project, but instead look at them as contributing this year.

Why would you rather take a guard than a SF? Wall and Beal are a lot better and more cemented in their spots than Ariza and Webster. Also, I don't think being able to contribute in year 1 is a big deal for any big we take. We've got Okafor under contract for next season and Seraphin is serviceable. The earliest we'd need any contribution from a big drafted this year is 2014/2015. We're good enough now to actually bring players along at a slower pace.

[stevemcqueen1]

I agree. McGary might make for a decent pro for somebody - just not us. Also he comes with red flags. He has almost as many 10+ rebound games in the tourney (3) as pre-tourney (4). He picked up 4 fouls in 8 minutes in the regular season finale vs Zeller. He's not a stretch 4. There are definitely more reasons against him than for him at this point. However, it'd be great if someone decides to pick him up and let someone like Bennett, Zeller, and/or Len to slide down to us in the mid/late lotto.

I agree to some extent. McGary is intriguing but the tiny body of work he's put forth is even less than Marvin Williams's. His age, his background, and his near total lack of a track record are compelling reasons not to take him in the lottery. He's a shot in the dark.

[hands11]

[quote="stevemcqueen1"I'd rather get someone who can help immediately - a 3rd guard is definitely one of our top two areas of need. If we think some of the Sr. PGs in round two can honestly fit the bill, than it does make sense to try to get a 3rd Big. But I'm not sold on their quality yet.

I think a 3rd guard is our 2nd priority of need but it's a clear 2nd to the first need: a power forward. I'm a lot more confident in AJ price backing up the PG than Seraphin backing up the PF.

PF is a longer term need. You have to ride this Nene thing out. If he returns better next year, that starting spot is taken for at least 2 years.

First need is back up center who can eventually start.
2nd is speed true ball handing back up PG

Then in no order, back us SG and PF that can shoot.

All of those pieces are important if they are going to take this to the next level.

http://nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/recent_consensus

Update. They have up taking Len, then Erick Green, then Ryan Kelly.

C, PG, stretch 4.

That wouldn't be a bad draft.