Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[sfam]

Fair enough sfam. Maybe he develops a reliable midrange shot. But with a 44% FT%, I think it's going to be a long long time before he can effectively spread the floor from the PF position. He might be able to play some PF, but he wouldn't be the type of PF that is an ideal fit for Washington. I really like him as a player though. I just think he's cut out to play center, at least early in his career.

I definitely agree that regardless how McGary develops, he's a few years away from contributing meaningfully, and for that reason, he's not high on my list.

[sfam]

This thread gives me anxiety. McGary is terrible.

If McGary is terrible, I'm guessing you haven't enjoyed the tournament much, as he's been the best player on one of the two teams in the finals.

[Dark Faze]

Sample size is terrible man. You get production like McGary has after a handful of games from a bunch of bigs every year. His overall stats are pretty good in terms of advanced numbers, but his season averages are not even D-League draft good.

I think he comes back to school, but if he comes out there are too many questions to pick him in the first round imo.

[sfam]

Sample size is terrible man. You get production like McGary has after a handful of games from a bunch of bigs every year. His overall stats are pretty good in terms of advanced numbers, but his season averages are not even D-League draft good.

I think he comes back to school, but if he comes out there are too many questions to pick him in the first round imo.

As a Michigan fan, I would definitely like to see McGary come back to school. Also he really would benefit from more time there. The question though is whether that would help his draft status. Even though the sample size is small, McGary definitely stands out in a weak, uninteresting draft. In a packed draft, he may still end up a mid first rounder, even if he comes with a more polished game. If Michigan wins, I'd bet money McGary and the rest of the declare.

[nate33]

Sample size is terrible man. You get production like McGary has after a handful of games from a bunch of bigs every year. His overall stats are pretty good in terms of advanced numbers, but his season averages are not even D-League draft good.

I think he comes back to school, but if he comes out there are too many questions to pick him in the first round imo.

It's not like he sucked all year and then randomly put together a string of good games in the Tourney. He was a freshmen playing behind a older, established players Jordan Morgan (Jr.) Jon Horford (So.). He played very well in limited minutes off the bench, getting double digit rebounds four different times in 20 or less minutes. He started getting more minutes as Michigan got into the middle of the conference schedule and continued to play well in 25 or so minutes a game. They finally moved him to the starting lineup on the first Tourney game and they haven't lost since.

In 5 Tournament games, he is averaging:
31 minutes,
16 points,
11.6 boards,
1.6 assists,
0.8 blocks,
2.2 steals
2.0 turnovers
.698 FG%

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This thread gives me anxiety. McGary is terrible.

It's not that McGary is terrible. This is not a draft with sure fire guys so almost anyone you look at will have major questions.

What happens every draft is that whoever looks good in the NCAAs has a real good chance of getting drafted. Shelvin Mack played in a couple Final Fours. He got drafted.

Mitch McGary for sure is a prolific rebounder. As a freshman, he led the Big 10 in offensive rebounding percentage and was a close second in overall rebounding percentage. McGary shot .601 FG for the season. His PER was 25.2. He averaged 7.5 points, 6.3 rebounds in only 19.3 minutes. He appears to also be a good defender.

McGary is the same kind of player as Jordan Williams, of Maryland.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ary-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ams-1.html

[doclinkin]

He's also deceptively quick. Most of the time he moves at his own speed conserving energy and looks like he's plodding around, but often, with defensive positioning, or quick hands, or sprinting on a break, he has shocked my eye with real athleticism and speed. Surprisingly good lateral quickness for a guy who looks doughy and half asleep all the time.

I noticed him in the stats column before the tourney when hunting for bigs who have good hands and BBIQ stats (defensive rebounding, good assist rates, and steals). Even before the tourney, pace adjusted per 40 he averaged something like 2.5 steals (2nd to Noel among centers) and 12 boards. Not great assist/TO rates (see Gorgui Dieng) and low block totals, but at least intriguing for a freshman. Seeing him in the tourney has definitely opened my eyes more. Not sure of his upside but Nene provides a good rolemodel for how he ought to try to play. Kid definitely has situational smarts though. A talent equally important as superior ups. Just ask JaVale's mommy. Or better yet, don't.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, McGary might be closer to NBA ready than most people here think. He hasn't really come out of nowhere. He was a very highly regarded offensive player coming out of HS and just hadn't played a whole lot of minutes in college. In the tournament, he's played his best ball against top competition. To me, his big game against Withey was a real eye-opener - as Withey is capable of making opposing centers look very bad with his shot-blocking ability. Looking at his size, skills, athleticism, and production... he's got a lot going for him. Imo, the Wiz should be considering him with their 1st pick - assuming he comes out. 6'10 260 lbers with offensive ability, good hands, and quick feet on defense are rare.

And with a good game tonight, he's got a shot at being named the NCAA Champ MVP. Maybe that shouldn't matter, but it does.

[nate33]

This thread gives me anxiety. McGary is terrible.

It's not that McGary is terrible. This is not a draft with sure fire guys so almost anyone you look at will have major questions.

What happens every draft is that whoever looks good in the NCAAs has a real good chance of getting drafted. Shelvin Mack played in a couple Final Fours. He got drafted.

Mitch McGary for sure is a prolific rebounder. As a freshman, he led the Big 10 in offensive rebounding percentage and was a close second in overall rebounding percentage. McGary shot .601 FG for the season. His PER was 25.2. He averaged 7.5 points, 6.3 rebounds in only 19.3 minutes. He appears to also be a good defender.

McGary is the same kind of player as Jordan Williams, of Maryland.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ary-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ams-1.html

Pretty good comparison.

The one difference is that Jordan Williams was actually a primary option scorer who received the ball with his back to the basket on the low block. As a result, he shot a bunch more free throws (and his 2P% was lower). McGary is more of a pure garbage player who just has a knack for getting open, getting lose balls, and putting them in the basket even though plays aren't really run for him. I don't know if that means he is better or worse. We don't really know what he can do as a back to the basket scorer. On the other hand, the fact that he gets so many garbage points speaks to his level of activity and his nose for the ball (and that he had better teammates). You gotta love a player who can score so much without plays being run for him.

One other difference (potentially) is in their build and athleticism. McGary is an inch taller with an extra inch in standing reach. Williams was pretty slow in lane agility and not a leaper. We don't know McGary's quickness and leaping stats. My gut feel is that he has quicker feet. I don't know about the jumping though.

[nate33]

Even before the tourney, pace adjusted per 40 he averaged something like 2.5 steals (2nd to Noel among centers) and 12 boards.

Yes. I noticed this too. That's a real good sign. I read somewhere that steals are the best predictor of NBA success. And we all know that rebounding translates well.

[Ruzious]

McGary's not going to be a big-time shot-blocker, but he's got quicker feet than Jordan Williams, and he's a bigger guy. Overall, Williams was a much more limited one-dimentional type player, imo.

[pancakes3]

I was going to post in response to Doc's quote a few posts ago that in every draft there's SOMEBODY but just now getting around to it. The question is knowing who that somebody is before the fact rather than in retrospect.

Player A: 6'10 240lb Junior putting up 17/10 on 50/35/75 shooting in the Pac-12 drafted 16th overall
Player B: 6'10 260lb Sophomore putting up 17/12 on 54/0/54 shooting in the ACC drafted 36th overall

Player A is Vucevic and B is Jordan Williams. One is obviously doing much better than the other in the league right now. Sure GMs obviously knew something separated these two players: athleticism, range, etc. yet both were drafted well below player C: Enes Kanter. It's hard to sift through the confirmation bias to really know what's going to happen.

The range for which McGary could pan out extends from Vucevic and Drummond to McRoberts or Jordan Williams and I wouldn't bat an eye for either extreme. As much as I enjoy YODA and tiers and armchair philosophizing, with each passing draft the more resigned I am to the fact that the draft is mostly more art than science save for the few exception surefire picks that draft boards are in consensus with.

And furthermore on the Erick Green discussion, I think the people saying that there's something d-league-ish about him see a bit of Crawford in him. 6'4 combo-guard who can fill up a box score. The question is can either back up pg. Green's asst/to is 1.75:1 compared to JC's 1:1.2... or 5:4 compared to 6:5. Subtle yet significant.

[Dark Faze]

I think the pick has to be Olynyk or Len. It's the ultimate skill vs potential scenario. I can't really decide anymore until the draft combine/workouts start as those will play a large part in my choice. It'll be interesting to see which way Ernie goes. Olynyk seems more like Ernies type of guy strangely enough based on past picks.

I don't like McCollum. No reason to waste a lottery pick on a third guard. You can get a guy who can put up some points for minimal dollars out of free agency or trade.

Jimmer is probably someone we could get fairly cheap.

[sfam]

I think the pick has to be Olynyk or Len. It's the ultimate skill vs potential scenario. I can't really decide anymore until the draft combine/workouts start as those will play a large part in my choice. It'll be interesting to see which way Ernie goes. Olynyk seems more like Ernies type of guy strangely enough based on past picks.

I don't like McCollum. No reason to waste a lottery pick on a third guard. You can get a guy who can put up some points for minimal dollars out of free agency or trade.

Jimmer is probably someone we could get fairly cheap.

I would again point out that our fairy cheap guards gotten via FA suck hard. Perhaps with a better GM, we might do better, but I would assume EG will be choosing.

[Nivek]

As much as I enjoy YODA and tiers and armchair philosophizing, with each passing draft the more resigned I am to the fact that the draft is mostly more art than science save for the few exception surefire picks that draft boards are in consensus with.

You're dead to me.

[Dark Faze]

To be fair that was a different time and a different CBA.

Take a look at these contracts with the new CBA:

Vince Carter: 3.9 PER
Collison: 2.4 PER
Mayo: 4 per
Augustin: 3.5 PER
Hinrich: 4 PER

So yeah. Maybe Ernie overpays, but the market doesn't demand it. There's a lot of evidence that Martell shouldn't even make MLE based on market demands.

Old CBA these players would be getting like 6 mil a year easy.

[Dat2U]

Age relative to draft class is a big consideration. McGary being a 20 yr old frosh whose about to turn 21 is a huge red flag in my eyes. He's not really a frosh. He'd be a old soph or junior in most cases. I can't look at him like he's a freshman. Also, he didn't dominate from jump (like a legit NBA talent should at his age) because he was out of shape. Another red flag is the abysmal FT shooting. 44%? Is he a PF or C? He plays like a center and looks like a burly PF.

Late 1st or early 2nd.

[nate33]

To be fair that was a different time and a different CBA.

Take a look at these contracts with the new CBA:

Vince Carter: 3.9 PER
Collison: 2.4 PER
Mayo: 4 per
Augustin: 3.5 PER
Hinrich: 4 PER

So yeah. Maybe Ernie overpays, but the market doesn't demand it. There's a lot of evidence that Martell shouldn't even make MLE based on market demands.

Old CBA these players would be getting like 6 mil a year easy.

Let's take a closer look at those comps.

Vince was still being paid $14M after being amnestied by Phoenix. Any extra salary paid by Dallas would have been subtracted from the amnesty money, so he was willing to sign for less, particularly on a team with title aspirations at the time. Also, Vince is just plain old and has made a ton of money in his career so it's not all about the money for him.

Mayo broke out after signing that small contract. Prior to breaking out, he wasn't that good. PER of 14.7, TS% of .513. Webster's numbers are much better.

Darren Collison is still on his rookie contract.

Augustin posted a PER of 14.1 and a TS% of .493 in his final season before signing his new deal. Definitely not a starting caliber player.

Hinrich posted a PER of 9.2 the season before signing his contract.

The bottom line is that Webster is a much better player than Hinrich and Augustin were when they signed their contract. Collison doesn't count because he's on a rookie deal. Mayo broke out after signing a small deal. Only Vince had comparable production to Webster at the time of his signing, and he took less money for other reasons.

As I've pointed out in the past, the ideal comparisons for Webster are Brandon Rush, Danny Green and Kyle Korver. Those guys are all lights-out shooters at the SF spot who don't do much else. All were signed last summer under the new CBA. Rush is paid $4M a year. Green is paid $3.75M a year. Korver is paid $5M a year. Webster should get something in that range. I'd prefer to pay him Danny Green money, but one must understand that the Wizards front office doesn't have the same clout as San Antonio. Danny Green probably would have gotten a little more money if he went to the highest bidder.

[pancakes3]

As much as I enjoy YODA and tiers and armchair philosophizing, with each passing draft the more resigned I am to the fact that the draft is mostly more art than science save for the few exception surefire picks that draft boards are in consensus with.

You're dead to me.

Jae Crowder

::ducks and runs::

[pcbothwel]

I was going to post in response to Doc's quote a few posts ago that in every draft there's SOMEBODY but just now getting around to it. The question is knowing who that somebody is before the fact rather than in retrospect.

Player A: 6'10 240lb Junior putting up 17/10 on 50/35/75 shooting in the Pac-12 drafted 16th overall
Player B: 6'10 260lb Sophomore putting up 17/12 on 54/0/54 shooting in the ACC drafted 36th overall

Player A is Vucevic and B is Jordan Williams. One is obviously doing much better than the other in the league right now. Sure GMs obviously knew something separated these two players: athleticism, range, etc. yet both were drafted well below player C: Enes Kanter. It's hard to sift through the confirmation bias to really know what's going to happen.

??? Vucevic measured 6'10.25 w/o shoes, 260lbs with a 9'4.5 standing reach. Williams was 6'7.75 w/o shoes, 245lbs and an 8'10.5 standing reach. That is a huge difference...