Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[pancakes3]

The point was about the difference between being able to predict versus retrospectively analyze.

[The Consiglieri]

Age relative to draft class is a big consideration. McGary being a 20 yr old frosh whose about to turn 21 is a huge red flag in my eyes. He's not really a frosh. He'd be a old soph or junior in most cases. I can't look at him like he's a freshman. Also, he didn't dominate from jump (like a legit NBA talent should at his age) because he was out of shape. Another red flag is the abysmal FT shooting. 44%? Is he a PF or C? He plays like a center and looks like a burly PF.

Late 1st or early 2nd.

Well, they also metioned that ADHD was a huge problem early on. That he'd repeatedly pick up a ton of fouls because he'd get overhyped and overexcited. As someone whose taught a ton of ADHD kids, this is something that isn't difficult to imagine at all. Maybe he was out of shape, but the word at least from 1 or 2 sources I heard in the lead up to Saturday's game was that the major issue was mental approach. If that's the issue, meds, and therapy/meditation can fix that issue. All this being said, I still wouldn't draft him exclusively based upon small sample size, and overage issue.

Also wondering why stevemcqueen loves Zeller so much. I like reading his posts, very informative, always thoughtful, but Zeller was a huge disappointment this year. While Indiana improved radically, it wasn't Zeller who was the engine behind it, after an exciting freshmen year, he really didn't seem to advance much at all this year. That is also a very bad sign, not quite as bad as being a non-entity till you're a senior/overage whatever, but still a huge red flag, and I tend to worry that he's one of those very good college players that will be owned by more athletic bigs at the next level. I love his technical skills, but I worry about everything else.

[pcbothwel]

I hear ya..but if i were predicting I would think the bigman with the superior lane agility, body composition/fitness level, FT shooting, and height/weight/length would be a much better prospect. This also assumes that NV had a higher defensive ceiling (because of the traits mentioned above) and their rebounding is comparable. Obviously intangible aspects like work ethic and BBIQ come into play but nothing showed that Jordan Williams was better in those areas either...

[Dark Faze]

As I've pointed out in the past, the ideal comparisons for Webster are Brandon Rush, Danny Green and Kyle Korver. Those guys are all lights-out shooters at the SF spot who don't do much else. All were signed last summer under the new CBA. Rush is paid $4M a year. Green is paid $3.75M a year. Korver is paid $5M a year. Webster should get something in that range. I'd prefer to pay him Danny Green money, but one must understand that the Wizards front office doesn't have the same clout as San Antonio. Danny Green probably would have gotten a little more money if he went to the highest bidder.

You posted a lot to say that you agree with me lol. I've always said Webster is below MLE which you seem to agree with.

Thing with Webster in comparison to those guys is that his injury history is atrocious, which has to count for somehting in terms of barganing. I mean its one thing to only play about 60 games a year, and another to have missed basically multiple seasons and never having shown a history of health at any point ever.

We can also extend him before the draft and say take the contract or we'll just draft your replacement. I think ernie has a lot of room to bargain.

[nate33]

Yes, I agree that Webster's fair market value is below MLE money, but not by much. If he costs $4.25M a year or so, I would think it's pretty fair. But the distance between $4.25M and the full MLE of $5.2M isn't a huge deal. If it came down to it, I'd go ahead and pay him the $5.2M rather than let him walk and try to replace him with Chase Buddinger or Mike Dunleavy at $3-4M a year.

Ultimately, I think EG will do a pretty good job in the negotiation. EG is terrible when estimating the impact of unknown players (draft picks, players on other teams, etc.) but he is pretty good at negotiating with guys that he knows well:

* Haywood's contract was a good one when he resigned.

* Butler's was good.

* I thought Jamison's was a bit high but he was ultimately able to move him for a pick so EG actually got it right.

* Blatche's first resigning was good, and even the second extension was fair if Blatche had played like he did in NJ.

* EG recognized that the Hughes offer from Cleveland was too expensive so he refused to match

* EG recognized that the Jeffries offer from NY was too expensive and he refused to match

[Nivek]

So, just for kicks, I went looking at where Wizards players rank by position in PPA. Wall is up to 10th now at PG. Beal was 26th among SGs -- tied with Joe Johnson. Webster and Ariza were 13th & 14th among SFs respectively (I used the position designations from B-R). Nene: 26th among PFs. Okafor: 21st among centers (tied with Greg Monroe and Dwight Howard).

But consider this -- the Wizards have the two bottom ranked PFs (minimum 500 minutes): Chris Singleton and Jan Vesely. AND they have the bottom ranked C -- Kevin Seraphin.

[sfam]

So, just for kicks, I went looking at where Wizards players rank by position in PPA. Wall is up to 10th now at PG. Beal was 26th among SGs -- tied with Joe Johnson. Webster and Ariza were 13th & 14th among SFs respectively (I used the position designations from B-R). Nene: 26th among PFs. Okafor: 21st among centers (tied with Greg Monroe and Dwight Howard).

But consider this -- the Wizards have the two bottom ranked PFs (minimum 500 minutes): Chris Singleton and Jan Vesely. AND they have the bottom ranked C -- Kevin Seraphin.

Dare I ask where Price and Temple fit in on this list?

[Nivek]

Price was ~35th/36th among PGs, which isn't for a backup. Temple is listed with the SGs where he ranks 50th.

[doclinkin]

If he slips, Sergey Karasev looks like a good draft-and-stash candidate. Bringing him over for summerball to see if he can hang. Shooting 50% from three, heads-up smart player, not a great defender necessarily, but ofensively proficient as a pro at a young age, on a winning team. Coaches' kid. Speaks english, plays for David Blatt (winner, who has proven to be a great talent evaluator over in Europe).

[dcPress]

This web site has a mock draft database: http://dcprosportsreport.com/NBAMocks.htm

The tally by player is as follows:


Noel 8
Muhammad 8
Len 7
Bennett 7
Porter 4
Robinson 4
McLemore 2
Oladipo 2
MCW 2
McAdoo 1
Polythyroid 1
Burke 1
Austin 1
and

A guy who I don't want us to pick, so I'll childishly refuse to name him 15

Personally @8-10 I like McGrary or Len, since we need a backup C in the worst way (not the BPA), and this is a great draft for good backups.

[hands11]

I think the pick has to be Olynyk or Len. It's the ultimate skill vs potential scenario. I can't really decide anymore until the draft combine/workouts start as those will play a large part in my choice. It'll be interesting to see which way Ernie goes. Olynyk seems more like Ernies type of guy strangely enough based on past picks.

I don't like McCollum. No reason to waste a lottery pick on a third guard. You can get a guy who can put up some points for minimal dollars out of free agency or trade.

Jimmer is probably someone we could get fairly cheap.

Dude. CJM is a true talent and a quality young man.

Mentioning him and Jimmer ? Really ?

Wall, Beal and CJM would lock up the guards for 10 years. That would be down right nasty.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omY6v5jJIjw&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[stevemcqueen1]

Well, they also metioned that ADHD was a huge problem early on. That he'd repeatedly pick up a ton of fouls because he'd get overhyped and overexcited. As someone whose taught a ton of ADHD kids, this is something that isn't difficult to imagine at all. Maybe he was out of shape, but the word at least from 1 or 2 sources I heard in the lead up to Saturday's game was that the major issue was mental approach. If that's the issue, meds, and therapy/meditation can fix that issue. All this being said, I still wouldn't draft him exclusively based upon small sample size, and overage issue.

Also wondering why stevemcqueen loves Zeller so much. I like reading his posts, very informative, always thoughtful, but Zeller was a huge disappointment this year. While Indiana improved radically, it wasn't Zeller who was the engine behind it, after an exciting freshmen year, he really didn't seem to advance much at all this year. That is also a very bad sign, not quite as bad as being a non-entity till you're a senior/overage whatever, but still a huge red flag, and I tend to worry that he's one of those very good college players that will be owned by more athletic bigs at the next level. I love his technical skills, but I worry about everything else.

Hmm, interesting. I guess I can see how overstimulation could be a problem for McGary. They zoomed in on him during a timeout and he was very hyped up, shouting and being very expressive. He looks like a rah-rah type, kind of like Joakim Noah. I could see how he might have trouble keeping his energy and emotions from boiling over. But the flip side of having all of that energy is that, when he harnesses it, he's very active on the floor. He covers a lot of space and is constantly moving and shoving and working for position. You can tell he enjoys playing big man basketball and I think he could wear an opponent down over the course of a game.

I like McGary's skill set but I'm definitely scared off by his tiny track record. That's the primary issue for me. His skills really pop and he's got excellent size but we've barely seen him play. There is only going to be so much information out there because of that. The team that drafts him will be taking a shot in the dark and that would make me uncomfortable in the lottery.

The age issue is a little concerning but he's not quite like other 21 year olds in the class. He hasn't played the same amount of basketball as a typical 21 year old prospect. He's a late bloomer who is behind the curve because he got held back. Because of that, he will probably have more untapped upside than a normal 21 year old.

On Zeller, he's been one of my favorite prospects in this class all year. Indiana's transformation as a team actualy began last year and he was really the driving force behind it. They went from a state of scandal and total disarray to back to back sweet 16s and a #1 seed in the tourney in just two years. He elevated the program, made it cool to go to Indiana again, and with top notch recruits like Noah Vonleh coming in, Indiana is going to be good for a while now.

Zeller' stats were down this year, but I wouldn't say his level of play dropped. The attention he received went up and guys like Oladipo emerged to take some of the numbers and possessions that probably would have gone to Zeller last year. I think he probably commanded more double and triple teams than anyone in the country except McDermott. There were games where he got doubled every single time he touched the ball, like against UGA. It was easy pretty easy for zone teams in particular to double Zeller since Indiana played small ball and kept everyone else out on the perimeter. Plus Yogi Farrell was a freshman and his lack of experience made the offense kind of streaky, effecting him in particular as the only low post player in most of his lineups. I think all of that added up to a slight drop in efficiency compared to last season. Plus Zeller's efficiency #s were so high last year, you figure some drop is natural.

But even still, Zeller's numbers were great this season, they're only marginally different from last year's. He still finished 14th in the country in PER and 7th in win shares.

I think he's one of the safest players in the class. He's a pretty rare prospect when you add it all up. 20 year old 7 footer + NBA athleticism + advanced offensive skills + elite collegiate production + relentless motor + elite feel for the game. We almost never see bigs like that come out. Very few young bigs with a top of the lottery skill set come out actually knowing how to play the game like Zeller does.

I like that he's got such a highly varied below the rim game and doesn't rely totally on dunks like most young college bigs. He's got a tremendous feel for the ball in his hands, just knows how to make it go in, uses a huge variety of release points and angles and has touch. He can contort his body in all kinds of ways to finish and he knows how to find the space around the basket to operate. He's got great feet and balance. He plays good defense and is a fantastic pick and roll defender. He's unselfish and thrives working away from the ball but is also a capable passer out of the post and Indiana ran the offense through him as the facilitator pretty often, particularly in pressure situations when the guards were struggling or they needed points. He's a great FT shooter and looks like he has the foundation for a good mid range pull up game in the NBA. He's a good ball handler that excels on perimeter drives. And he's got the ability flip the switch and dominate for stretches to close out games, like he did in the stunning comeback against Michigan.

All in all, he's got a versatile offensive skill set and is pretty clean everywhere else. He's seems like he's got a really great intangible make up too. He's super smart, I read he's on track to graduate in two to two and a half years--no later than next January, and maybe as early as this summer. The only weaknesses I see are that he's got ordinary length, he's not a physical rebounder, he still needs to shape his body for the NBA and add strength, and he needs to develop and incorporate a mid range jumper with range at least to 15 feet, ideally longer than that. None of those except the length are atypical problems for a 20 year old big, and the length doesn't bother me like it does for most people. He's got a lot of the same strengths as healthy Nene and is a pretty similar player IMO. As such, I think he'd be a great fit here.

[Ruzious]

To nitpick, but McGary's 20. He turns 21 on June 6th - my birthday. I turn older than 21.

[sfam]

SteveMcqueen, for such a long post, that was a fairly easy read! So in terms of Zeller's transition to the NBA, you see him primarily as a PF? Does Zeller ever try 3 point shots?

My only concern with Zeller is his lack of shot blocking and concerns over his rebounding. He does look ultra skilled though. I can see him contributing 20 quality minutes a game in his first season, which is pretty rare for rookies.

[sfam]

Wow, what a start to the final! Bang!!!

Burke is definitely playing like the player of the year in this one. I hope the rest of the game stays on this pace!

[rl25g]

ok i want Dieng now.
he looks like a mini Okafor right now.
taking good angles and communicating on defense.
positional one-on-one defense is looking good, and his team defense is looking better.

[Severn Hoos]

So is Spike now a Lottery pick?

[stevemcqueen1]

Wow, Spike Albrecht is having the game of his life. What an electric atmosphere. I'm pulling for Michigan in this one. I love the match up. Michigan has enough ball handling and shooting skills to cope with Ds like Louisville and Syracuse. The emergence of McGary has also transformed Michigan's playstyle IMO because he is even more rugged and imposing than anyone Louisville has.

[stevemcqueen1]

ok i want Dieng now.
he looks like a mini Okafor right now.
taking good angles and communicating on defense.
positional one-on-one defense is looking good, and his team defense is looking better.

Yeah I really like him. He's a marvelous defender and he's got a few offensive tools he can go to on that end of the court.

[sfam]

ok i want Dieng now.
he looks like a mini Okafor right now.
taking good angles and communicating on defense.
positional one-on-one defense is looking good, and his team defense is looking better.

Yeah I really like him. He's a marvelous defender and he's got a few offensive tools he can go to on that end of the court.

Dieng definitely looks like a solid contributor at the next level. I don't know that I want him over some of the other choices. Regarding McGary, he's definitely continuing with his flukey midrange shot. I do agree with Barkley though that they need to feed him the ball more.