Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[rockymac52]

So it looks like we're probably going to pick in the 8-10 range, barring some lottery luck. IMO, that means that for the most part, we're just going to have to take whoever falls to us, for better or worse.

Think about it. We know Noel, McLemore, Porter, and Smart (I still don't get the hype at all, wouldn't surprise me to see him fall a ton between now and draft day, but alas, this appears to be the consensus) are almost definitely going to be gone by our pick. Then I think there's another tier of guys that we can safely expect to see go off the board directly afterwards, give or take one or two surprises: Oladipo, Muhammad, Bennett, Burke, Len, Zeller.

So there's your top 10 players. A lot can change between now and draft night, and there's always bound to be one guy who slips really far in these next few months, just as there's likely going to be someone who comes out of nowhere into the top 10 or better. But I think it's pretty clear that for the most part, these are the consensus top 10 players.

So let's say we end up with the 10th pick. Well guess what, in theory, 9 of these guys will be gone by the time our picks rolls around, and our decision has basically been made for us. Maybe we get to pick between 2 guys or 3 if we're really lucky, but that's no sure thing. Then let's say we get the 8th pick, it's going to be a similar situation, except we'll be at least guaranteed to have SOME pick between the last 3-4 of this group. On that note, that reason alone makes me really want to get the 8th pick instead of the 9th or 10th, because having some choice is always a good thing, even if it means Ernie might pull a Vesely (okay that would be bad... really bad).

But, for the most part, I think it's clear that we're not going to have very many realistic options by the time our pick rolls around. We might not even be able to draft certain positions by the time it's our pick, as there might only be top notch big men left, and no swing men, or vice versa. Whatever happens, happens, at that point.

Unfortunately I think there's a good chance that we'll be stuck picking between Len and Zeller, which would be a real letdown (although I still haven't made my mind up on Zeller, so it could be fine).

So let's say that's the case. it's not important who we draft here, for our purposes right now, because the bottom line is that we're drafting a big man. I'm curious what our next move becomes at that point.

We've got Nene and Okafor starting still, with our rookie hopefully being the first big off the bench. Then Booker is serviceable when he's healthy, so he'll get some burn. And then there's the Singleton, Seraphin, Vesely trio. We all know how we feel about them, regardless of if we draft a big man or not. My concern is that if we draft a big man, even if it's the best player available, and he's instantly an upgrade over that trio (and maybe Booker too), then we're just pushing those guys even further down the bench. Now, don't get me wrong, I have no desire to see Vesely on the floor as long as he's wearing our uniform, and I don't think he's ever going to be even halfway decent, but it kills me to see a recent prospect/asset go to waste like that. We could try and trade one or two of them for a bad contract or an equally worthless guard, just to even things out, but that's not an appealing option.

Then again, they suck, and that's that. So there's no reason not to upgrade if the opportunity presents itself.

[rockymac52]

On another note, I'd like to briefly discuss our free agency plans this summer.

Assuming Okafor and Ariza exercise their options, and that we cut ties with Temple, here's what our roster will look like:

PG: Wall
SG: Beal
SF: Ariza
PF: Nene/Booker/Singleton/Vesely
C: Okafor/Seraphin

9 players for about $57 million ($1 million under the cap).

Then add in the 8th pick, which will cost about $2.4 million next season. Now we have 10 players and a total salary of $59.4 (slightly over the cap).

We'd have to fill out the rest of our roster with 2nd round picks, vet minimum players, and the MLE. We could theoretically split the MLE up amongst 2 players instead of giving 1 player the full $20 million/4 years.

Now, I want to talk about where to spend that MLE money, because I think that is going to be our key move this summer, other than the draft pick. A lot of us have kind of assumed that we'll use at least part of it to bring back Webster for 3-4 years at about $3-4 million per year. Now, don't get me wrong, I love Webster, and he's been a great addition to our team this season, and I'd love for him to stay on our squad for the foreseeable future. However, I think there may be a better alternative.

That alternative, ladies and gentlemen, is Jarrett Jack.

Jack is the combo guard we've been dreaming of. Say goodbye to the days of suffering through AJ Price destroying our hopes at winning games, and welcome the possible 6th man of the year, eating up the rest of the PG minutes when Wall is on the bench, and playing a decent amount at SG as well, Jarrett Jack. An above average player on both sides of the ball, and a player who has welcomed his roles over the course of his career. Jack is what we've desperately needed all season.

I think Jack is likely to sign for somewhere close to the MLE at $20 million/4 years. I also don't think the Warriors are going to be able to keep him because of luxury tax concerns. I think it's a great fit.

That becomes even more true if we end up drafting Porter or Muhammad (or perhaps Oladipo if we think he can play SF). At that point Webster becomes fairly expendable, even though he's still a quality player with a unique and valuable skill set, just because we'd have our top 10 pick and Ariza to take up all the minutes at the 3.

I'd gladly take a combination of Jack and Muhammad over something like Burke and Webster.

Thoughts?

[WizTom]

I just have to say that most of you guys post so much good stuff that it's tough for me to keep up, much less formulate a position. But I read most of this and the Trade thread, so I'm gonna take a minute to throw some stuff into the mix.

Right now I think the Wizards have a decent top 6-man rotation. Depending on what happens, I would add Price to make it 7 deep. If they all stayed healthy for most of the season, that would be a playoff team. And I do believe that GM John Wall will re-sign Webster for as much of the MLE as he asks for, putting this core in place for next year already. But as noted above by others, the bench is weak. If anyone goes down, things look grim.

As for the draft, my biggest hope is that they get a top three pick in the lottery. If it's #1, take Noel and see what they can get among combo guards and stretch 4s with the second rounders. Or flip both the second rounders to move into the late 1st and grab BPA. But either way, I'd be happy to let the kid heal and bide his time behind Okafor and Nene.

If they draw #2 or 3, I hope either Utah is in love with Smart or Burke and the Wiz can flip the pick plus Seraphin or Booker for Kanter and one of 17 or 21 this year; OR Milwaukee is in love with McLemore and they can flip the pick plus Vesely or Booker for Ilyasova and their 15. In either case, they might have to add Singleton and/or a 2nd rounder - hopefully the later one - to get the mid-late 1st pick back. Then go BPA with that pick.

If the pick stays around #8, I lean toward agreeing with Dark Faze and others that they should pick someone who has produced in college and will produce in the Association. I think the Wiz really need front court depth next year and beyond. (I also think they will try to extend Okafor, but there is a lot that can happen before the end of next season.) And while certain of the Bigs are a little older, that doesn't really bug me because they tend to take longer to develop anyway. Also agree with Nivek: the second rounders are where you look for diamonds in the rough. Take a chance on someone who does one thing very well - and this team needs shooters.

That's my two cents for now.

[mhd]

Important tank loss tonight. We still have Philly at home, at Brooklyn, at Bulls. My guess is that the Wiz beat Philly and lose the last two if Wall is out. Perhaps the Wiz say Wall has the cold and is out the last 3 games.

Updates standings (with remaining opponents within our vicinity):

We CANNOT catch the following:

1) Bobcats
2) Magic
3) Suns
4) Cavs

The rest:
5) Pistons (27 wins, Bobcats, Philly, @ Nets)
6) Hornets (27 wins, @ SAC, LAC, DAL, @ DAL)
7) Kings (27 wins, NO, @ SA, @OKC, @HOU, LAC)
8) Wiz (29 wins, PHI, @Nets, @Bulls)
9) Min (29 wins, @LAC, @ UTAH, Suns, Utah, SA)
10) TOR (30 wins, Bulls, Nets, @ Hawks, @ Bos)
11) 76ers (31 wins, @Wiz, Cavs, @Det, @ Ind)

If the Wiz lose out, they could perhaps get to the 5th slot. If Detroit wins tonight (EDIT: They won!), I think they could win Bobcats and Philly to get them 29 wins. If they win out, they get to 30 wins assuming Nets rest all players last game). Root for Hornets against Kings simply b/c Kings have tougher schedule although those top teams may rest. Minny should beat suns, lose to Jazz twice and finish with 30 wins. Hope Clips rest for last game. Root for Raps against Bulls & Nets at home. They could beat Hawks on road. Root for 76ers against Cavs and Indy.

[DCZards]

I'm with you on Jarrett Jack, rockymac, for all the reasons you state. I said a few days ago that he'd be my free agent target. Plus Jack's a local kid, PG County, and might just want to come home.

[mhd]

Say the Wiz end up 5th, who do we take?
1) Bobcats-Noel
2) Magic-Smart
3) Suns-Mclemore
4) Cavs-Porter
5) Wiz????

[nuposse04]

Shabazz or Bennett. Porter if for some odd reason the Cavs decide not to grab him. Tonights game makes me think we HAVE to draft a big with considerable upside though. Seraphin is just so awful. If you let that walking graffiti scum **** of a man bitch you around you suck.

[mhd]

Len has got to be back on the top of our board. He's a legit 7'1, athletic, NOT overraged, very good FT for a big, plays with passion, and is a local kid to boot.

[nate33]

I wonder if some way-under-the-cap team in need of adding some salary to get to the minimum payroll requirement would be willing to take Vesely off of our hands for free. Maybe we throw in some cash to pay his salary. The idea here is to generate a Trade Exemption. We can then use it on somebody like Luke Ridnoir to address our backcourt depth, while saving the MLE to resign Webster.

[AFM]

Let's just plant guns in his locker. He looks like the type of guy that packs heat anyway.

[mhd]

Here is my projected wins/losses for the teams we are "chasing":

Pistons (27 wins, Bobcats, Philly, @ Nets) (30 wins: (They should handle Bobcats and 76ers, and I expect them to beat a Nets squad with nothing to play for
Hornets (27 wins, @ SAC, LAC, DAL, @ DAL) (29 wins: (I expect them to beat SAC and split with Dallas while losing to Clips)
Kings (27 wins, NO, @ SA, @OKC, @HOU, LAC) (29 wins, Lose to NO, SA, OKC, and beat LAC & HOU who will rest)
8) Wiz (29 wins, PHI, @Nets, @Bulls) (29 wins, I say Wiz tank the last 3 games)
9) Min (29 wins, @LAC, @ UTAH, Suns, Utah, SA) (30 wins, They beat Suns)
10) TOR (30 wins, Bulls, Nets, @ Hawks, @ Bos) (32 wins, they beat Bulls & Celtics)
11) 76ers (31 wins, @Wiz, Cavs, @Det, @ Ind) (33 wins, they beat Cavs & Wiz)

Projected Mock draft if this holds true:
1) Bobcats-Noel
2) Magic-Smart
3) Suns-Mclemore
4) Cavs-Porter
5) Wiz (29 wins)-Len
6) NO (29 wins)-Oladipo
7) SAC (29 wins)-Shabaaz
8) Det (30 wins)-Burke
9) MIN (30 wins)-Zeller
10) OKC (from TOR, 32 wins)-Bennett
11) 76ers-Olynyk

8)

[nuposse04]

I'd rather set up Seraphin at this point. He plays like such a dick tickler out there. He's **** allergic to defensive rebounding.

[mhd]

I wonder if some way-under-the-cap team in need of adding some salary to get to the minimum payroll requirement would be willing to take Vesely off of our hands for free. Maybe we throw in some cash to pay his salary. The idea here is to generate a Trade Exemption. We can then use it on somebody like Luke Ridnoir to address our backcourt depth, while saving the MLE to resign Webster.

Honestly, why don't we do a Vesley for Beasley trade where we get 2015 LAL 1st? Suns get out of Beasley's contract and the Wiz take a chance on Beasley?

[nuposse04]

I wonder if some way-under-the-cap team in need of adding some salary to get to the minimum payroll requirement would be willing to take Vesely off of our hands for free. Maybe we throw in some cash to pay his salary. The idea here is to generate a Trade Exemption. We can then use it on somebody like Luke Ridnoir to address our backcourt depth, while saving the MLE to resign Webster.

Honestly, why don't we do a Vesley for Beasley trade where we get 2015 LAL 1st? Suns get out of Beasley's contract and the Wiz take a chance on Beasley?

I'd do it, at least Beasley can score, not like any of the bigs in our 2nd unit can score at a consistent rate anyways. Just keep him away from fred davis and trent williams. Lord knows how high they'll get.

[mhd]

What about this trade:

Wiz trade Ves+Singleton+2013 1st for Marcus Thornton+Philly 2013 1st
Kings trade: Marcus Thornton+2013 1st forThad Young
Philly trade: 2013 1st+Thad Young for Ves+Singleton+Wiz 2013 1st+Kings 2013 1st

Kings get the best player in Thad Young who slides into the SF slot and can also backup Patterson at PF. Philly likely gets 7th & 8th picks, while the Wiz take best big left at 11th. Thorton is a huge boost as a really good combo guard who can score.

[sfam]

Let's just plant guns in his locker. He looks like the type of guy that packs heat anyway.

NOBODY with that haircut looks like the type of guy that packs anything but a Scooby Doo lunch pail.

[hands11]

Thanks, I hope I didn't offend any of our fellow wiz posters here, I have a lot of respect for guys I tend to have differing opinions with, at the end of the day we all just want the team to get better.

The rant mostly just came from watching last nights game where every pick other than Wall simply couldn't be relied on, and I think back to that draft and how we could have Kawhi and Faried on rookie contracts today, guys who had proven NBA skills and work ethic that we passed on because of "low ceiling". It's just hard to put in words how good this team would be today had we just valued on court play/skill in that draft rather than going for homeruns.

Hell no DF. Bring it. It helps break up the bubble think that is always going to happen.

Hey, for all the post that were made about those two, look how many undervalued Nikola V. He my well end up being better them both of those guys.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... la-vucevic

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400278886
He just posted 20 rebounds and 30 pts

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/playe ... asontype/2
He is the 2nd ranked rebounding in the league.

Just his 2nd year of action and he is 22

And we could have had him as your center. This would be why you fire EG. How you pass on this guy for Ves when you needed a center that year in mind blowing.

He was a mature kid and already eating right. All he did was work on his game. Total focus. He is the center version of a Beal.

[hands11]

I was just thinking about how horrible or bench is.

Our top 6 players: Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, Nene and Okafor are rock solid (when healthy). Those guys, if they were backed by an average crew of bench players, would win 50 games. Unfortunately, our bench is absolutely terrible. Think about it. Other than Booker, everyone on our bench could be replaced by a D-Leaguer and nobody would notice the difference. (Booker is better than a D-Leaguer, but not by all that much. He should be a 10th or 11th man, not our 7th best player.)

EG needs to dump Singleton, Vesely and Seraphin as soon as possible and try to reload with 2nd round picks and minimum salary vets. Just about anybody would be better than these guys. (I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Seraphin as a project, but we can't rely on him.). Basically, we need to acquire a 7th, 8th and 9th man. Booker can be our 10th, Temple our 11th and Seraphin our 12th.

EG really needs to figure out how to acquire another pick in this draft, preferably a late 1st. Can we trade Singleton + our NY 2nd rounder pick + $3M cash to get a pick in the mid 20's? I'd love to take a high quality 3rd guard with our lotto pick (Burke), a defensive big with the late 1st (Dieng or Withey), and a stretch four with our high 2nd (McDermott or Ryan Kelly)

Been my take on things for awhile so we see eye to eye on all of that. Clean up and reload. To many projects on this team. If you can't prove yourself and earn a spot in 2 years, that's it. Your gone. Singleton and Ves just haven't shown enough. Martin is a extremely average weak minded player. Nothing special. They should have never brought him back. Mason was a better option. Price is an ok two guard but he isn't a PG. We need another PG.

Question is, can Ted/EG clean it up.

And instead of Burke.. who would likely be gone..CJM VO would be a nice add also. But CJM really intrigues me. I see some Kyrie, Wall and Beal in him. Not a great assist guy but a scrorer, rebounder, and great moves. He will be in an AS game one day. VO is just all grit and will to win. Great D. And he can shoot ok. High motor. Both would be great bench players who can step in and start if needed. No bust potential at all.

[hands11]

Thunder would be a good trade target seeing as how they will have 2 first round picks.

I really don't see the Thunder giving up any of their picks for marginal NBA talent in the final year of their contracts.

Very much like the Spurs, Oklahoma understands that the draft is an opportunity to add complimentary players, and to upgrade the overall talent of their roster while committing a minimum amount of salary.

For small market team with limited external revenue opportunities like Oklahoma that's the only way to remain competitive, and they will continue to follow that model.

I see them packaging their picks to move up, or deferring their selection to next year by acquiring picks for the 2015 draft before involving them in a deal for other NBA players.

Sounds like what they would do. Once in the drivers set like they are, they can just keep loading the deck. If I was them, I would trade on of those picks for a chance at a top pick next year. Why not ? Unless they see something they really want in this draft.

[hands11]

On another note, I'd like to briefly discuss our free agency plans this summer.

Assuming Okafor and Ariza exercise their options, and that we cut ties with Temple, here's what our roster will look like:

PG: Wall
SG: Beal
SF: Ariza
PF: Nene/Booker/Singleton/Vesely
C: Okafor/Seraphin

9 players for about $57 million ($1 million under the cap).

Then add in the 8th pick, which will cost about $2.4 million next season. Now we have 10 players and a total salary of $59.4 (slightly over the cap).

We'd have to fill out the rest of our roster with 2nd round picks, vet minimum players, and the MLE. We could theoretically split the MLE up amongst 2 players instead of giving 1 player the full $20 million/4 years.

Now, I want to talk about where to spend that MLE money, because I think that is going to be our key move this summer, other than the draft pick. A lot of us have kind of assumed that we'll use at least part of it to bring back Webster for 3-4 years at about $3-4 million per year. Now, don't get me wrong, I love Webster, and he's been a great addition to our team this season, and I'd love for him to stay on our squad for the foreseeable future. However, I think there may be a better alternative.

That alternative, ladies and gentlemen, is Jarrett Jack.

Jack is the combo guard we've been dreaming of. Say goodbye to the days of suffering through AJ Price destroying our hopes at winning games, and welcome the possible 6th man of the year, eating up the rest of the PG minutes when Wall is on the bench, and playing a decent amount at SG as well, Jarrett Jack. An above average player on both sides of the ball, and a player who has welcomed his roles over the course of his career. Jack is what we've desperately needed all season.

I think Jack is likely to sign for somewhere close to the MLE at $20 million/4 years. I also don't think the Warriors are going to be able to keep him because of luxury tax concerns. I think it's a great fit.

That becomes even more true if we end up drafting Porter or Muhammad (or perhaps Oladipo if we think he can play SF). At that point Webster becomes fairly expendable, even though he's still a quality player with a unique and valuable skill set, just because we'd have our top 10 pick and Ariza to take up all the minutes at the 3.

I'd gladly take a combination of Jack and Muhammad over something like Burke and Webster.

Thoughts?

Makes sense if you remove the emotion ties most of us have to Webster. He has been a bright spot this year. Its a valid option.

But we may be able to add a little more cap room by extending one or both of Trevor A and Okafor and cost averaging down. Maybe pick up a few more mil