Better acquisition, Ray Allen or Birdman?

[TheDon008]

Who would you guys say has been the better addition to this 2012-2013 team? I mean Ray Ray was the big time signee this summer. But some would argue that Birdman has meant more to the team because he caters more to our needs in rebounding and rim protection.

But let us not forget the 3-4 game winners Ray has had for us this year.

My vote probably goes to Birdman because what he provides, is more difficult to replace than what Ray ray brings.

What do you guys think?

[Rodrizzle]

Both are great signings but I think their true value will be gauged in the playoffs.

I cant wait

[Pimpwerx]

Interesting question. It's really hard to pick between them. I might say Ray, because he's won multiple games for us already, and he's getting so many minutes. OTOH, Birdman has made us "complete" as a team. Tough. I tell you what, it's nice having such a hard time mulling the answer to that question. It means we made out well with both of them. PEACE.

[kyphi]

Yes

[Mars]

It's not a simple case of either/or. Each is a valuable and unique piece to an intricate, well-oiled machine. Fortunately, Riley managed to snag both for a combined $3.5 mil.

[mopper8]

I think when it's winning time in the playoffs, our go-to lineup will often be Wade/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh.
You'll also see some Chalmer/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh (which we typically used in the 2nd quarters in the regular season and it was very very effective) and some Chalmers/Wade/Battier/Lebron/Bosh. Against the right matchups, we've used Chalmers/Allen/Wade/Lebron/Bosh and it's been insanely effective-- +34 pts/100 possession in over 100 mintes of play.

So, in short, I think Allen is going to play a much bigger role in the playoffs and ultimately in our success. So him.

[Picklewagon]

Birdman has definitely helped us win some games. Ray has actually won us some games

[Laazard]

Birdman easily. We are one tier better team with him. He is so impactful.

I'm still eating crow for saying he is done and we shouldn't sign him.

[Heat_Fan_87]

Our most effective lineup from a statistic standpoint is
rio
wade
bron
battier
bosh

[HEAT111]

I believe they're both are equal, we have signed an offensive player with the right amount of offense and small defense. Birdman, right amount of defense and small offense.

[GameTime_3]

Great question.....

Ray Allen is the better player and easily more important down the stretch but Birdman brings something that our team lacked & I feel could of been our down fall in the playoff's. Right now, if you had to elimate a player, I would get rid of Ray due to MM & Rio filling in and Joel would fill in for Bird. Birdman has taken our team to the next level with his size and inside scoring.

Simply
Ray > Bird
More important;
Ray > Bird
If had to waive someone;
Ray > Bird

Nothing against Ray but we have musch more depth at G than at C/PF.

[wadeallday1]

I'd have to say Ray. He will obviously play at the end of games in the playoffs. Wade-Allen-Battier-Bron-Bosh. Unless the lineup of LeBron-Wade-Battier-Bosh-Birdman gets a see and works real well.

[WD]

glad we got both

from pbp

"Under the circumstances, Ray Allen felt the need for a conversation. So the veteran reserve pulled aside two of the starters, Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers, to push them to set the pace as four Heat regulars rested.
“Hey, you guys might have to hunt for some shots early in the game, just to get us going,” Allen said."

[JesusHCoxMd]

Both.

[GreenHat]

Ray has been better but I think Anderson is less replaceable. Allen's defense has been bad and if he was lost we could replace him with Miller and more minutes by Chalmers/Wade/Lebron. If we lost Anderson it would be Joel and more minutes by Haslem/Bosh (when we specifically needed Anderson)

I think when it's winning time in the playoffs, our go-to lineup will often be Wade/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh.
You'll also see some Chalmer/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh (which we typically used in the 2nd quarters in the regular season and it was very very effective) and some Chalmers/Wade/Battier/Lebron/Bosh. Against the right matchups, we've used Chalmers/Allen/Wade/Lebron/Bosh and it's been insanely effective-- +34 pts/100 possession in over 100 mintes of play.

So, in short, I think Allen is going to play a much bigger role in the playoffs and ultimately in our success. So him.

Why Allen over Chalmers in that first lineup? Or did you just mean often as in more often than any Anderson lineup?

I like that last lineup too (depending on the sg/sf and the pf/c of the other team) but 100 mins really doesn't tell us much (which unfortunately is the problem with most 5-man units). You also run into the problem that the data is skewed for specialized lineups because they are used specifically in favorable matchups. Like how LOOGY baseball relievers will put up insane numbers. Not directed at you, just the people who see +34/100 in 100 minutes and want us to play it all the time.

[mopper8]

Ray has been better but I think Anderson is less replaceable. Allen's defense has been bad and if he was lost we could replace him with Miller and more minutes by Chalmers/Wade/Lebron. If we lost Anderson it would be Joel and more minutes by Haslem/Bosh (when we specifically needed Anderson)

I think when it's winning time in the playoffs, our go-to lineup will often be Wade/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh.
You'll also see some Chalmer/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh (which we typically used in the 2nd quarters in the regular season and it was very very effective) and some Chalmers/Wade/Battier/Lebron/Bosh. Against the right matchups, we've used Chalmers/Allen/Wade/Lebron/Bosh and it's been insanely effective-- +34 pts/100 possession in over 100 mintes of play.

So, in short, I think Allen is going to play a much bigger role in the playoffs and ultimately in our success. So him.

Why Allen over Chalmers in that first lineup? Or did you just mean often as in more often than any Anderson lineup?

I like that last lineup too (depending on the sg/sf and the pf/c of the other team) but 100 mins really doesn't tell us much (which unfortunately is the problem with most 5-man units). You also run into the problem that the data is skewed for specialized lineups because they are used specifically in favorable matchups. Like how LOOGY baseball relievers will put up insane numbers. Not directed at you, just the people who see +34/100 in 100 minutes and want us to play it all the time.

Yeah definitely would not want to use it all the time.

As for Allen over Chalmers, to be clear, when I said I think when it's winning time in the playoffs I meant 4th quarter. "Crunch time" lineup. During the win streak, that lineup was basically the last-5-minutes lineup consistently. The only time I can remember seeing it outside the end of the 4th was in the comeback vs the Cavs...Spo put it in during the 3rd once we cut the lead to ~19 as I recall and that lineup brought it down to single digits, or something like that. Like other small/hybrid lineups, you can't play too much or the guys will wear down, so he seemed to keep it in his back pocket.

[GreenHat]

Ray has been better but I think Anderson is less replaceable. Allen's defense has been bad and if he was lost we could replace him with Miller and more minutes by Chalmers/Wade/Lebron. If we lost Anderson it would be Joel and more minutes by Haslem/Bosh (when we specifically needed Anderson)

I think when it's winning time in the playoffs, our go-to lineup will often be Wade/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh.
You'll also see some Chalmer/Allen/Battier/Lebron/Bosh (which we typically used in the 2nd quarters in the regular season and it was very very effective) and some Chalmers/Wade/Battier/Lebron/Bosh. Against the right matchups, we've used Chalmers/Allen/Wade/Lebron/Bosh and it's been insanely effective-- +34 pts/100 possession in over 100 mintes of play.

So, in short, I think Allen is going to play a much bigger role in the playoffs and ultimately in our success. So him.

Why Allen over Chalmers in that first lineup? Or did you just mean often as in more often than any Anderson lineup?

I like that last lineup too (depending on the sg/sf and the pf/c of the other team) but 100 mins really doesn't tell us much (which unfortunately is the problem with most 5-man units). You also run into the problem that the data is skewed for specialized lineups because they are used specifically in favorable matchups. Like how LOOGY baseball relievers will put up insane numbers. Not directed at you, just the people who see +34/100 in 100 minutes and want us to play it all the time.

Yeah definitely would not want to use it all the time.

As for Allen over Chalmers, to be clear, when I said I think when it's winning time in the playoffs I meant 4th quarter. "Crunch time" lineup. During the win streak, that lineup was basically the last-5-minutes lineup consistently. The only time I can remember seeing it outside the end of the 4th was in the comeback vs the Cavs...Spo put it in during the 3rd once we cut the lead to ~19 as I recall and that lineup brought it down to single digits, or something like that. Like other small/hybrid lineups, you can't play too much or the guys will wear down, so he seemed to keep it in his back pocket.

Yeah definitely can't play that small for too long.

And what I meant was WHY? As in I would like your opinion why Allen over Chalmers. Sorry for not being clear.

Why should it be Allen over Chalmers? Chalmers is the slightly lesser shooter but is better in other areas and Allen really can't guard anyone on the "crunch time" lineup of most playoff teams.

Spo seems like a numbers guy who wouldn't buy into the "clutch" argument (Chalmers of course hit a bigger shot than anyone on the team ever has anyway)

Do you think its a seniority thing? Maybe a trust issue or a consistency thing?

The one clear advantage I see for Ray is the quickness of his release but its not like Chalmers doesn't get his shot off on kickouts.

Looking at the lineup data they are pretty much the same. +18.7 vs +20.5 are pretty much the same in these kind of sample sizes. I would also point out there are some unexplained increases that could be skewing the data like us becoming much better rebounders and shot blockers with Allen instead of Chalmers which seems to be random noise rather than because of Allen or Chalmers.

So my question sparked by your post is why do you think we should go with Ray over Chalmers in crunch time? Or do you just think that is what we will do?

[mopper8]

It was more a prediction than a prescription.

That being said, I'm not sure it's the wrong choice. Mario is no doubt better defensively than Allen, but Wade can guard the better of the two guards without a problem. We've also used 1-2-2 zone quite effectively with that lineup FWIW. Meanwhile, I think Allen is a far more versatile offensive player...he can do everything Chalmers can and more.

Still, I'm happy with either of those guys finishing. Mario is shooting 53% from the right corner, and Ray 49% from the left corner, so with either guy you're getting a killer spacer.

Still, ultimately this might be dictated by matchups more than anything else.

[TripleC]

Both are important in their own respectable roles, but short answer: Ray Allen.

Like a poster said previously in this thread, Birdman helped us win games... but Allen won us games.

Even yesterday in Washington.

[DWadeno3]

It was more a prediction than a prescription.

That being said, I'm not sure it's the wrong choice. Mario is no doubt better defensively than Allen, but Wade can guard the better of the two guards without a problem. We've also used 1-2-2 zone quite effectively with that lineup FWIW. Meanwhile, I think Allen is a far more versatile offensive player...he can do everything Chalmers can and more.

Still, I'm happy with either of those guys finishing. Mario is shooting 53% from the right corner, and Ray 49% from the left corner, so with either guy you're getting a killer spacer.

Still, ultimately this might be dictated by matchups more than anything else.

I believe Allen's crunchtime abilities aren't a coincidence. He, unlike probably any other guy on this team, has an insanely quick release and is able to hit very well contested shots, especially in catch-and-shoot situations. Given that the defense is probably at its best during the last 4-5 minutes of a game, that quality becomes that much more important. We've seen him "bail us out" on several occasions when we weren't able to create a good shot. What looks like a routine shot for Ray isn't the routine for most guys in the league.