ronnymac2 wrote:Sideshow, question(s) for you...
What do you think of LeBron's portability? Does this change how you see his portability back in 2008-2010?
This year? High on both ends of the floor. I'd add that I suppose we could and should also put a number on the degree of portability for any given player on both ends of the floor, as differentiating between LOW/AVG/HIGH can be a bit misleading. The way Elgee has his "SIO curve" set up makes me want to peg the highest degree of portability at 15, a mid level at 10 and then have a low end at 7.
The other thing I'd add is that because we know that defensive is relatively additive, while offense is overlapping, a defensive player of level X tends to be more portable than an offensive player of level X in my mind. Therefore, I like splitting up the analysis.
So then looking at 08-present.
2008 is the 2nd year in which he became a solid impact defensive player, but before the Beijing Olympics after which he made the jump defensively. On the offensive end, his jumpshot this season and in 07 has regressed from 05 and 06 (getting accustomed to the still developing body). On offense, 2008 Lebron is basically a more explosive, slightly more skilled 2006 Lebron with a weaker outside shot. I'd say in terms of portability he falls on the lower end. Say 8 or 9.
2009 sees huge improvements on both ends. STRONG improvement on defense (I don't think that there's a large difference between 09 James and 13 James on the defensive end, but there is one), so that by definition increases his portability a bit. He also dramatically improves his jumpshooting; its night and day from the year before, and further improves his overall scoring skills, while retaining the same athleticism from the year prior. We see him, for the first time, playing with somewhat competent offensive teammates, and he meshes well. This year would be right about average. Between 9 and 10.
2010 sees less improvement, but more refinement. His shooting improves again, particularly the three pointer, which has basically been incorporated into his game as a pull up shot. He's playing off the ball more than he ever has before; his sense of positioning has improved and he's comfortable playing off Williams as the primary ball handler. When Williams misses time, he takes over the de-facto PG role to a greater extent than he ever has before, and from that point till the end of the season (32 G) he puts up 30/8/10 on 59.5% TS while running Cleveland to a +7.0 offense. He displayed improvement in the role we had seen him in before, while also showing versatility on offense. Defensively, he's about the same as the previous year. Portability maybe at 11 (just above average).
In 2011 I think he's about the same defensively, but all the reasons I've covered for his physical decline attribute to him just being a weaker offensive player. Over the course of the season, he grows into the new role, becoming better and better at being an off ball threat, moreso with the jumpshot than anything else; his mid range shooting % in the second half of that season was insane (55% from 10-23 feet post all-star, 49% in the calendar year of 2011). I thought he did a solid job of fitting in as the season progressed, but the issues here were beyond just pure redundancy, which is why I think its wrong to point to 2011 as a reason for 09 or 10 Lebron not being able to retain high impact when put next to strong offensive talent. Playing next to Wade shouldn't have caused him to literally stop playing to his strengths altogether. It would diminish the impact of doing so, but it wouldn't prevent it. He stopped doing so because he was incapable of doing so. Defensively, he's still the same as he was the year before, though a little less mobile. This year I'd rate at a flat 10, dead average.
2012 saw the first improvement in defense since 08->09. On the offensive end, his jumpshot inside 15 ft became elite, but he regressed from 16 feet out (someone on the Heat board said he suffered an arm injury mid season but I've never seen that confirmed). He improved in other areas on offense however, that the regressed jumpshot didn't matter. Started to become comfortable with playing down low, as opposed to having his post game limited to facing up in the mid-post, really adapted to attacking the basket off the ball, improved his sense of when/how to move within the offense, just a strong overhaul of his offensive skillset. Slightly more portable on the offensive end as well. I'd peg him between 11 and 12.
This year's just insane though. I think its more than reasonable to say that he's improved at every single aspect of the game on both ends (not as dramatically on the defensive end though). He's now become deadly off the ball, outside and inside, looks very comfortable in the post, has an excellent sense of where to be positioned on offense (and the improved skillset allows the execution of this), has managed to improve his outside shot yet again, AND on top of all that, has rediscovered his old explosiveness (though not to the same extent). It's like taking the old James, giving him the 2012 skillset, and then improving every facet of his game. This year I'd say between 13 and 14. Below the crazy portable guys (Bird and the 2 way bigs), but above most of the rest of the guys that come to mind when talking about the top peaks.
If LeBron had this system, coach, and personnel in 2007 and then went through two years of adapting his game, do you think his 2009 season would be exactly like his 2013 season (except with a bit more run/jump athletic ability that he doesn't seem to need right now anyway)?
Hmm, I can't see why not. If he had this skillset developed earlier, I can't see why he wouldn't have come close to this level earlier as well. Though I suppose a big part of it is simply experience. If you asked be to compare 09/10 to 13, I'd say that what we saw from him before was what we know as dominance. What we see today is mastery. Its a nuanced difference, but I think it fits.
It'd be interesting to think where he'd be now though, if that had been the case. He'd have to work on other aspects of his game, as there's got be a limit to how much he can improve on what he's good at right now. I'd imagine he might have developed a bit more defensively.
