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2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs?

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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#41 » by hands11 » Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:23 pm

Ruzious wrote:If they trade Nene, they can tank. And unless they add quality depth, they'll stink again if they have a major injury - any signigicant injury to Wall, Beal, OR Okafor combined with no Nene would lead to another big losing season.


Trading Nene, not adding any quality at back up PG or SG. Not resigning Webster.

If Wall or Beal missed games, that would lead to a lot more loses.

Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

It could be done but I doubt they do this.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#42 » by sfam » Fri Apr 26, 2013 11:15 pm

verbal8 wrote:
noworriesinmd wrote:Would you take a chance on Phil Jackson the GM?


Not really sure how it is related to tanking, but I think Jackson would be an improvement at the position :)

Joe Billybob at the local Exxon station might be an upgrade over the current position. I happen to think Jackson would be an AWESOME GM. I'd love it if Ted were able to convince him to come here. I just don't see that happening though, barring giving Jackson an ownership stake.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#43 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:50 am

hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#44 » by montestewart » Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:04 am

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.

One approach might be to sell off some or all of Ariza, Nene, Okafor for younger players/picks. I know that's the mantra anyway, and easier said than done, but I'm thinking lower 1st, or 2nd, or future picks and/or young prospects, with maybe one veteran leader (Webster or whichever of the others couldn't be moved) mixed in with a very young team led by Wall/Beal, who would conveniently periodically be out with mysterious injuries.

Watching a young team develop can be fun even if they're losing (as long as it doesn't last forever) and fans might have a new window of patience for a team like that. And, they would suck and get a higher draft pick to run with Wall, Beal, and whichever of the other young players pan out. But EG would be the one making all those picks. OK, forget it.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#45 » by DANNYLANDOVER » Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:40 am

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.


There's no way Ted and Ernie will let that team win 30 games. Umm what's the precedent of that team winning 30 games? They haven't managed that in recent seasons. If we start off 0-12 again next season, you better believe we'll join the tank race for the stacked 2014 draft.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#46 » by B-easy » Sat Apr 27, 2013 8:40 am

Why is this even being discussed?

We go for the playoffs. Enough said.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#47 » by Ruzious » Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:47 am

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.

You keep saying that, but I'm pretty confident that you're wrong. Look at that front court. It's terrible. If Okafor misses any time, it's historically bad. Again, as good as Wall and Beal will be, they're not Lebron and Wade. They can't make up for an epically bad front court.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#48 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:59 pm

DANNYLANDOVER wrote:
nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.


There's no way Ted and Ernie will let that team win 30 games. Umm what's the precedent of that team winning 30 games? They haven't managed that in recent seasons. If we start off 0-12 again next season, you better believe we'll join the tank race for the stacked 2014 draft.

We won't start off 0-12 if Wall is healthy.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#49 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:13 pm

Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Wall
Beal
Trevor A
Kevin S, Booker
Okafor, Ves

I don't think they are making the playoffs.

That team may not make the playoffs, but it'll still win at least 30 games, which means a pick in the 6-12 range, not a top 3 pick. Also, we'd have a rookie on that team who might help a bit.

Also, tanking has to be done subtly. I don't see any way Ted could get away with letting Webster walk and making no effort whatsoever to find another shooter, even if it's a stopgap type like Mike Dunleavy. You can't go into next season with a plan that has Garrett Temple as the backup SG and Cartier Martin as the backup SF and then try and sell tickets.

You keep saying that, but I'm pretty confident that you're wrong. Look at that front court. It's terrible. If Okafor misses any time, it's historically bad. Again, as good as Wall and Beal will be, they're not Lebron and Wade. They can't make up for an epically bad front court.
Yes, the front court would be really bad if Okafor misses time. They would probably play 20-win basketball with Okafor out. But they would play 35-win basketball with that team when Okafor is healthy. So as long as Okafor plays 60 games or so, they win 30 games.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#50 » by leswizards » Sat Apr 27, 2013 8:37 pm

Given EG's incompetence, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards if they ended up accidentally tanking next year. Having said, I am pretty certain that the Wizards have no intentions of tanking next season. The Wizards started this past season 4-28 this year, and it would have been incredibly easy for them to tank the remainder of the season and guarantee themselves a very good shot at a top three pick. Considering that they didn't tank this past season after the 4-28 start, I don't know why anyone would expect them to go into next season attempting to tank.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#51 » by Dat2U » Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:41 am

leswizards wrote:Given EG's incompetence, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards if they ended up accidentally tanking next year. Having said, I am pretty certain that the Wizards have no intentions of tanking next season. The Wizards started this past season 4-28 this year, and it would have been incredibly easy for them to tank the remainder of the season and guarantee themselves a very good shot at a top three pick. Considering that they didn't tank this past season after the 4-28 start, I don't know why anyone would expect them to go into next season attempting to tank.


I agree. We go 6 deep with one real impact player. Our roster is not infallible. Injuries have ruined many Wizards seasons before. Even if Wall is healthy if you've got a bunch of non-NBA players around him (i.e. Seraphin, Vesely, Singleton, Martin, Temple) then his play is going to suffer and so will our record.

If all we do is stay status quo, resign Webster/Price and add minimum free agent level types, it's not out the question it could all blow up again. There still wouldn't be enough talent to sustain any significant injuries.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#52 » by Dat2U » Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:55 am

The problem with tanking is Wall. He played like a superstar to end the season. If he's really that type of player, with just a modicum of help from Beal, Webster, Okafor & Nene once in a while... 45+ wins is not out of the range of possibility.

Ruzious suggested trading Nene could be key to tanking. I would disagree slightly. Nene's presence may be the difference b/w making or missing the playoffs but even without Nene, a Wall & Beal core may be good enough for 35 wins.

The only way the Wizards are looking at a top pick next year is if we have significant time missed by Wall. I don't think any of us wants that. I'd rather have Wall become a top 5 player. Beal a top 20 player and we luck up into a 3rd star some other way.

I like the idea of trading Nene for Humphries & a 2014 1st rounder. If any team has given up on the draft, it's the Nets. I'm all for poaching a 2014 pick or two if possible and hoping we can benefit from another team's failure.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#53 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sun Apr 28, 2013 3:06 am

Dat2U wrote:
leswizards wrote:Given EG's incompetence, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards if they ended up accidentally tanking next year. Having said, I am pretty certain that the Wizards have no intentions of tanking next season. The Wizards started this past season 4-28 this year, and it would have been incredibly easy for them to tank the remainder of the season and guarantee themselves a very good shot at a top three pick. Considering that they didn't tank this past season after the 4-28 start, I don't know why anyone would expect them to go into next season attempting to tank.


I agree. We go 6 deep with one real impact player. Our roster is not infallible. Injuries have ruined many Wizards seasons before. Even if Wall is healthy if you've got a bunch of non-NBA players around him (i.e. Seraphin, Vesely, Singleton, Martin, Temple) then his play is going to suffer and so will our record.

If all we do is stay status quo, resign Webster/Price and add minimum free agent level types, it's not out the question it could all blow up again. There still wouldn't be enough talent to sustain any significant injuries.


Seraphin and Vesely have the physical skills and youth to be very serviceable players. They started and won 6 straight in 2012. Temple at PG is a big, backup guard who can be a 3 and D player. Singleton regressed primarily because he's not as good as Ariza or Webster. Chris is a well-below average player but he can be a useful sub who plays a lot of years in the NBA. Seraphin and Vesely IMO have had their development stunted but DO have talent, including Vesely.

I think the Wizards are bound to be pretty darn good next season. Much better than a tank team. Wall and Beal are legit talents. Okafor in a contract year will be above average. Ariza is a MUCH better player than I anticipated when he came here. Webster is deadly shooting the corner three. Price actually is a solid journeyman sub. If the FAs don't come back, they'll be replaced with upgrades. The team has GREAT chemistry. What they lack is depth of talent.

I'm down with Nene trades that get back picks in 2014. I just see the glass as more than half full moving forward. They'll be better than ninth, but I don't want them to go veteran, mediocre and sign Okafor and Ariza longterm.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#54 » by nate33 » Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:52 pm

Dat2U wrote:The problem with tanking is Wall. He played like a superstar to end the season. If he's really that type of player, with just a modicum of help from Beal, Webster, Okafor & Nene once in a while... 45+ wins is not out of the range of possibility.

Ruzious suggested trading Nene could be key to tanking. I would disagree slightly. Nene's presence may be the difference b/w making or missing the playoffs but even without Nene, a Wall & Beal core may be good enough for 35 wins.

The only way the Wizards are looking at a top pick next year is if we have significant time missed by Wall. I don't think any of us wants that. I'd rather have Wall become a top 5 player. Beal a top 20 player and we luck up into a 3rd star some other way.

I like the idea of trading Nene for Humphries & a 2014 1st rounder. If any team has given up on the draft, it's the Nets. I'm all for poaching a 2014 pick or two if possible and hoping we can benefit from another team's failure.

Thank you, Dat2U. That's exactly what I've been trying to say. Tanking is impossible with Wall healthy. Even if everything else goes wrong, they still win 30, which is too good for a top 5 pick.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#55 » by hands11 » Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:18 pm

leswizards wrote:Given EG's incompetence, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards if they ended up accidentally tanking next year. Having said, I am pretty certain that the Wizards have no intentions of tanking next season. The Wizards started this past season 4-28 this year, and it would have been incredibly easy for them to tank the remainder of the season and guarantee themselves a very good shot at a top three pick. Considering that they didn't tank this past season after the 4-28 start, I don't know why anyone would expect them to go into next season attempting to tank.


Going 4-28 was the tank. It was assured the moment they found out Wall would miss significant time. From there, Randy chose line ups that were only about defense so they could get that installed. It was a big picture move. He started line ups with no #1 option. Well there was 19 year old Beal who wasn't ready for it. If they wanted someone out there that would handle that, they would have started Crawford. But to what end ? I think they would have rather tanked one more year.

And a 30 win team next year would be tanking as well. Getting the 6 through whatever pick would still put them in the lottery.

But there is no reason to tank. They already have two very good players from getting the #1 and #3.
They have contracts of 7M, 13M, and 14M that if they want they can use in a trade. Having contracts of that size are assets when it comes time to trades when they are attached to players that are legit NBA players. Or any or all of these players can be retained for less money moving forward. Though as much as people say Trevor A is overpaid, I could easily see him getting a new contract playing him at least 6M a year. So 7.2M this year really wasn't that overpaid. Next year, I believe he will be the starter with Webster off the bench.

In the new NBA, players commonly play productively at age 35 and even older. Why would we be in a hurry to ship off Trevor A, Okafor and Nene ? Those are 3 solid NBA vets. Add Webby who is a sharp shooter and you have 4. Add two young AS level studs in Wall and Beal and you have 6 players. All you need is 8 legit players and some nice roll players behind them.

Why wouldn't you just build that out.

Top 10 D
.500 record with Wall, Beal and Nene playing
well over .500 with all three starting

They get to add a top 8-9 pick this year. That could be a Len, Dieng, or CJM. Any of them help now and the future.

They can add players like Mike Muscala C/PF, Erik Murphy/Ryan Kelly S4, and Pierre

And they should be able to add FA vets in whatever area they don't draft. Nate Robinsons, etc Nate makes 1.1M this year. There will be players like that available. Like Webby was at 1.6M

Sure there are questions with this team but just as is, again, with Wall, Beal and Nene starting, they had a really good record like a top 4-5 seed. They just need depth and they need to clear some roster spots which means deciding what to do with Kevin S, Ves, Booker and Singleton. What to to with those 4 players is really the main thing that is creating confusion about the future. That and Nene's health.

For me, I think all Nene really needs is a good summer of rest. He knows that and he is on it. If that works out, you have a legit stud PF/C for 2-3 more years.

So all they need is help. They need depth. And for me, I say that is out there in the form of.

Tall, Athletic, defensive C of the future that can score - That's Len or Dieng. It could even be Withey
SG/PG with a shot and handles - That's a CJM, Burke, Erick Green
S4-Erik Murphy/Ryan Kelly/Mike Muscala
Back up PG help. That could be a Pierre Jackson or a FA/Vet like Nate Robinson, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Eric Bledsoe, Chauncey Billups

It should be relatively easy for them to upgrade Price and Martin. That could help a lot.

So it really comes down to how to they get upgraded help for Nene and Okafor in the front court.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#56 » by pancakes3 » Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:26 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:The problem with tanking is Wall. He played like a superstar to end the season. If he's really that type of player, with just a modicum of help from Beal, Webster, Okafor & Nene once in a while... 45+ wins is not out of the range of possibility.

Ruzious suggested trading Nene could be key to tanking. I would disagree slightly. Nene's presence may be the difference b/w making or missing the playoffs but even without Nene, a Wall & Beal core may be good enough for 35 wins.

The only way the Wizards are looking at a top pick next year is if we have significant time missed by Wall. I don't think any of us wants that. I'd rather have Wall become a top 5 player. Beal a top 20 player and we luck up into a 3rd star some other way.

I like the idea of trading Nene for Humphries & a 2014 1st rounder. If any team has given up on the draft, it's the Nets. I'm all for poaching a 2014 pick or two if possible and hoping we can benefit from another team's failure.

Thank you, Dat2U. That's exactly what I've been trying to say. Tanking is impossible with Wall healthy. Even if everything else goes wrong, they still win 30, which is too good for a top 5 pick.


We're a 29 win team right now and only Okafor and Webster started in more than 50 games (as well as 2000 minutes, ~1/2 of available minutes in an 82 game season). 30 wins is not some extravagant optimistic reach. It's the basest of extrapolations assuming an identical season next season. To not win 30 games next season would mean either a severe regression across the board or even MORE injuries than we sustained this season.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#57 » by Benjammin » Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:50 pm

Inadvertent post somehow...sorry.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#58 » by Benjammin » Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:50 pm

Inadvertent post....
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#59 » by Ruzious » Tue Apr 30, 2013 3:56 am

Dat2U wrote:I agree. We go 6 deep with one real impact player. Our roster is not infallible. Injuries have ruined many Wizards seasons before. Even if Wall is healthy if you've got a bunch of non-NBA players around him (i.e. Seraphin, Vesely, Singleton, Martin, Temple) then his play is going to suffer and so will our record.

If all we do is stay status quo, resign Webster/Price and add minimum free agent level types, it's not out the question it could all blow up again. There still wouldn't be enough talent to sustain any significant injuries.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're saying the opposite of this:
The only way the Wizards are looking at a top pick next year is if we have significant time missed by Wall.

I think if the Wiz trade Nene for Humphries and a 2014 pick, they could easily be in contention for a top 5 pick - just with an injury to Okafor.
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Re: 2014 should they Tank or go for Playoffs? 

Post#60 » by Dat2U » Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:26 am

I guess what I was basically saying I'd don't see us in top 5 pick range unless we lose Wall for a significant period of time. Trading Nene may certainly impact playoff hopes but I think 30 wins is the floor with a Wall/Beal backcourt.

Wall is the main issue here. He's not tolerating another season like the last 3. I suspect he's coming out guns blazing next year trying to carry the team to a playoffs. My heart of hearts say tank when I look at what's coming next year but Wall's development kinda puts all that on the back-burner. It takes exactly one superstar to make a team competitive.

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