Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[CLIN]

I gotta disagree strongly right here. Olynyk's game is predicated on skill. He makes 44% of his jump shots. He's over 35% from the college 3. He's got a developed face up game. He's effective in the pick & roll. He's got a solid low post game. He's one the best finishers in college basketball making over 75% of his shots. What more do you want? His PER is 36.2, he had a TS% of .675. He's got an offensive rating of 127.1 while using 30.7% of his possessions. His WS40 is .317, higher than Anthony Davis .312 who dominated CB last year. The questions about his defense & rebounding are legitimate, but the man is a high usage offensive machine. Complain about the competition you want but the he did what he was supposed to do, he outright dominated whoever he played against.

When talking about players that fit the best with John Wall, his name is at the top of my list.

Good points, Dat. But:

I'm scared by the combination of strength of schedule and the fact that Olynyk's only had one year of this level of production (and he is a red shirt junior). Doesn't that bother you? If his game is predicated on skill and not athleticism, shouldn't he always have been this good? Also, what are the changes (I'm asking, I really don't know) that Olynyk was always this good (or close) and that Mark Few is a colossal idiot for not giving him more PT?

I can see arguments for why Olynyk is a version of Tom Chambers (thought 4 all-star games would shock me) and why he;s a version of Adam Morrison -- another Gonzaga star who was overwhelmed by the speed and athleticism of the NBA. I dunno. He scares me.

There's a interesting article about olynyk that explains why he didn't play his first couple years

http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... iY.twitter

worth a read, but basically he worked really hard doing weird/tough hand-eye cordination drills. Which explains why he's a beast at finishing around the hoop.

[nate33]

I remember reading about those hand-eye coordination workouts before. You gotta be impressed with his work ethic. If nothing else, work ethic plus 7-feet tall is enough to make him a worthy lotto pick.

[Nivek]

fish: BIG difference between Olynyk and Adam Morrison. Morrison was an efficient scorer who did nothing else. And he was a poor athlete, as well. Olynyk was a productive scorer and decent rebounder who also became a competent shot blocker. Morrison's YODA score suggested a 2nd round pick. Olynyk's suggests he's worth a high 1st round pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In regards to production, some people compare Olynyk to Hawes. Hawes got decent minutes on a good defensive team in Philly, and he's had a PER of 18 and 16 over the last couple of years, with Olynyk being projected to be a decently superior player offensively while not quite as good defensively (Hawes is a decent shot blocker), though probably equal in rebounding.

Hawes has been better on the boards than expected in limited minutes. He's averaged around 26 minutes which is what I think Olynyk would get as a backup PF/C for this team, and Hawes has rebounded very well in that space.

Hawes in 27 minutes is a 10 and 7 guy who dishes out around 2 APG.

This sounds pretty average to okay, but it's important to remember that Nene has a huge effect on this team as a 13 and 7 guy with a PER of 17 this year. As a 36 MPG guy Hawes is a 15, 10 and 3-4 APG kind of guy.

With Olynyk, I think the offensive numbers are better, the rebounding numbers are the same, and the defense is slightly worse.

So as a backup Olynyk eventually is a 13 and 7 guy in limited minutes and probably a 17 , 9-10 RPG, 2-3 APG in 36 minutes should he ever start with average to slightly worse than average defense at C.

There's a ton of projecting on my part here, but I think it gives guys an idea of what Olynyk would be for this team, as I think some people are confused about where he places and how he'd look statistically if his current production carries over to the NBA, which is a big IF for almost anyone you draft though.

On top of this consider several intangibles: 1. KO played PG many years. This will enable him to have good court awareness. 2. He is the son of a Canadien national team coach. He will train and mentally prepare well and with maturity beyond his youth. 3. He finished his accounting degree and is working toward his graduate degree. KO is disciplined, smart probably with money matters, and a guy who probably has some leadership potential.

Olynyk is a good choice for Washington. If anything he's underrated.

[verbal8]

People might think I'm crazy, but Dieng might be a better pick for this team than anyone on the board, and you guys know how much I love Olynyk.

Seriously, to the point where I might actually consider picking him 8th.

Reason being he helps us on two ends--we don't have to keep Okafor long term which gives us a ton of money we can use and he helps us solidify the center position for years to come. Dieng is just PERFECT for todays game--he can defend the PNR better than anyone not named Noel, and maybe even that's arguable, he's a great rim protector--louisvilles entire system is only possible for him to clean up the errors.

The best part of it is that you can remove the biggest scare for this team moving forward--relying on an aging front court to retain our identity. We essentially can replace Okafor and get younger, freeing up that money in the process to strengthen other positions, all without changing our defensive identity.

I'd prefer to trade up and get him that way so we get two picks, but I think there's an argument that Dieng fills the biggest need we have moving forward on this team when you think long term.

Dieng is certainly going to be a solid pro. I think he is easily a starting-caliber defensive C/PF in today's NBA.

The problem I have considering him the BEST pick is I don't think his offense is enough to meet what the Wizards need and he lacks size to be a real game changer at C. There are guys like Mike Muscala who can give the bigs offensive pop off the bench. I think dynamic aerial finishers like DJ Stephens and Jamaal Franklin can provide energy at both ends off the bench. I value them and CJ McCollum more than Dieng for the Wizards. Nate Wolters or Pierre Jackson can be like Jose Calderon and JJ Barea off the bench.

Dark Faze, Dieng is really good but IMO so are others

I think Deng could be a young Okafor. Probably not as athletic, but with better size. If you look back at Okafor's draft he probably should have been picked about 8th in that draft. He wouldn't be a terrible option, but I think there may be better ones.

[fishercob]

This thread is awesome.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think Deng could be a young Okafor. Probably not as athletic, but with better size. If you look back at Okafor's draft he probably should have been picked about 8th in that draft. He wouldn't be a terrible option, but I think there may be better ones.

Okafor was a much more highly regarded prospect than Dieng. He was an elite prospect who many thought should have gone #1 at the time. He was a monster at UConn, a face of college basketball the season he led the team to a championship, the most dominant player in CBB that year. Dieng is not the scorer nor rebounder that Okafor was. Okafor was also pretty much fully developed physically when he came out, Dieng is much skinnier and lankier than Okafor was.

Dieng is an old prospect with minimal offensive skills. He dominated players much younger than him. He looks like a nice back up defense and rebounding big man, someone a team like the Pacers or Bulls would draft and work into their rotation off the bench. I think he'd be a huge reach at 8. You're looking for a starter at that point in the draft. You need to pick a guy with some upside.

[Dat2U]

I think Dieng has become a bit overrated. The offense just doesn't quite measure up. His TO% has been consistently higher than his usage rate over his college career. The rebound rate was 15.7 & 15.2 his frosh & soph before spiking to 17.5% this year. He's solid, reliable and a good teammate but that shouldn't make someone a lottery pick. He's a backup C. I think he's better than Withey because he's stronger than him but he's also 23 yrs old. I like Steven Adams potential as a defensive minded C and he's only 19 and put up somewhat similar stats.

[nate33]

If you look back at Okafor's draft he probably should have been picked about 8th in that draft.

I can't agree with that. Okafor has been an above-average starting big for 9 years. His career PER is 17.0 which is above average, and his defense has been extremely good, even if it falls short of truly "elite".

If you knew beforehand that Okafor would have this type of career, you would easily take him in the 3-5 range in most drafts. Looking at his actual draft in retrospect, one would probably rank him in the 2-5 range. Howard was easily the best of that draft, and after him, it's a 3-way tie between Iggy, Deng and Okafor. An argument could be made for Kevin Martin too.

[fishercob]

I gotta disagree strongly right here. Olynyk's game is predicated on skill. He makes 44% of his jump shots. He's over 35% from the college 3. He's got a developed face up game. He's effective in the pick & roll. He's got a solid low post game. He's one the best finishers in college basketball making over 75% of his shots. What more do you want? His PER is 36.2, he had a TS% of .675. He's got an offensive rating of 127.1 while using 30.7% of his possessions. His WS40 is .317, higher than Anthony Davis .312 who dominated CB last year. The questions about his defense & rebounding are legitimate, but the man is a high usage offensive machine. Complain about the competition you want but the he did what he was supposed to do, he outright dominated whoever he played against.

When talking about players that fit the best with John Wall, his name is at the top of my list.

Good points, Dat. But:

I'm scared by the combination of strength of schedule and the fact that Olynyk's only had one year of this level of production (and he is a red shirt junior). Doesn't that bother you? If his game is predicated on skill and not athleticism, shouldn't he always have been this good? Also, what are the changes (I'm asking, I really don't know) that Olynyk was always this good (or close) and that Mark Few is a colossal idiot for not giving him more PT?

I can see arguments for why Olynyk is a version of Tom Chambers (thought 4 all-star games would shock me) and why he;s a version of Adam Morrison -- another Gonzaga star who was overwhelmed by the speed and athleticism of the NBA. I dunno. He scares me.

There's a interesting article about olynyk that explains why he didn't play his first couple years

http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... iY.twitter

worth a read, but basically he worked really hard doing weird/tough hand-eye cordination drills. Which explains why he's a beast at finishing around the hoop.

Holy crap. I didn't realize Olynyk's redshirt year was after his first two seasons at Gonzaga! Am I the only one who missed this?

Read that article, people. Highly impressive stuff. Speaks really well to his character and willingness to put in the work to improve. I can't think of a single college player who basically took a year off, without transferring, to remake his body and retrain his brain.

[stevemcqueen1]

Ruzious, good point, I keep reading this 6-8 wingspan from Zeller, but when I look at him his arms don't look that short. That's why I posted a couple back that I think him and Olynyk will test out very similar at the combine.

But Zeller's arms do look very unmuscular. He really needs to his the weight room and work on developing his arms as well as his chest & shoulders. Leg strength too. But he does not seem to have the alligator arms just when I'm looking at him.

He does have a lot of work left to do shaping his body. It's a knock. But it is something he can work on. His upper body is still underdeveloped, though not as much as it was last season. He actually put on a lot of good weight between the seasons. And his base is wide and is something he can really add strength to over time.

Zeller is clean. He's not overaged and he played in the best conference in CBB. Has probably dealt with and succeeded against more double teams than anyone else in CBB except Doug McDermott. He was the leader and foundation of a great team that took his program to heights they hadn't reached in a looooong time. He's athletic. He's got a tremendously high skill level already. He's got natural scoring instincts and an elite feel for the game. He has a rare understanding of how to find the space to operate in the interior and has the best and most diverse array of under the basket finishes of any college big in years. He is a big time threat to face up and blow by opposing bigs. He can facilitate the offense passing from the top of the key or passing out of the post. Tremendous basketball IQ and work ethic. He's squeaky clean off the court. He plays very good positional defense, is one of the best PnR defenders in CBB, and does have some playmaking ability on this side of the court (gets a lot of steals and a surprising amount of blocks for someone with such a supposedly short wing span).

I think he's like a smaller, weaker, but faster and more scoring oriented Nene. He will get bulkier and stronger in the progression of his career and I think he'll become an excellent mid range catch and shoot option in time. He'll also refine a post game that's already way ahead of the curve and become a quality low post scoring option.

I think people are seriously underrating him as a prospect. He's a quality lotto pick in any year unlike most of the other players in the class, one of the only guys who would have been a lottery pick in last year's draft. Probably a top ten pick. Short of lucking into Noel or finding a way to make it work with McLemore or Oladipo, I think Zeller and Porter are about the best we can hope to do in this year's class.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think Dieng has become a bit overrated. The offense just doesn't quite measure up. His TO% has been consistently higher than his usage rate over his college career. The rebound rate was 15.7 & 15.2 his frosh & soph before spiking to 17.5% this year. He's solid, reliable and a good teammate but that shouldn't make someone a lottery pick. He's a backup C. I think he's better than Withey because he's stronger than him but he's also 23 yrs old. I like Steven Adams potential as a defensive minded C and he's only 19 and put up somewhat similar stats.

I like Adams in theory too, in a similar range to Dieng. But there is a whiff of work ethic concerns with Adams. Plus his family situation is just bizarre. I don't know him nor do I have any first hand info about his intangibles. Nevertheless, something bothers me about his intangibles. I probably would not draft him. I just don't have a good feeling about him.

[Dat2U]

Holy crap. I didn't realize Olynyk's redshirt year was after his first two seasons at Gonzaga! Am I the only one who missed this?

Read that article, people. Highly impressive stuff. Speaks really well to his character and willingness to put in the work to improve. I can't think of a single college player who basically took a year off, without transferring, to remake his body and retrain his brain.

And it's why he's one of my favorites. Who does that? That says a ton about his work ethic. Like I said the other day, many pro prospects wait until they've hired an agent & and are in the draft process before they start really working on their body & game. It's a credit to him that he remade his game while still in college.

[Ruzious]

Holy crap. I didn't realize Olynyk's redshirt year was after his first two seasons at Gonzaga! Am I the only one who missed this?

Read that article, people. Highly impressive stuff. Speaks really well to his character and willingness to put in the work to improve. I can't think of a single college player who basically took a year off, without transferring, to remake his body and retrain his brain.

And it's why he's one of my favorites. Who does that? That says a ton about his work ethic. Like I said the other day, many pro prospects wait until they've hired an agent & and are in the draft process before they start really working on their body & game. It's a credit to him that he remade his game while still in college.

Apparently he was so focussed, he never found the time to cut his hair. <rimshot>

Even aside from his hair, he barely passes the eye test for me. He's got narrow shoulders. Strength will be an issue with him. And he's just very slow in his defensive reactions. I think we agree that defense is vital for a winning big man. 3rd non-hair issue is turnovers - 3.7 per 40 minutes is high.

And there's the Y factor. How many quality NBA players have 2 y's in their name? That can't be a coincidence. And I'm not even counting the y in Kelly... or the dearth of Kelly's in the NBA. Kelly Tripucka was a pretty tough swingman back in the day, so I won't knock him for that. But the plethora of y's... Why? Indeed.

[TGW]

Ruzious—How does Zeller pass your eye test and not Olynyk? Zeller has t-rex arms and is physically underdeveloped from a strength perpective. Olynyk at least looks like a center. Not only that, I put less stock in athletic ability for bigs than I do with wing and point guard prospects...great bigs don't have to be athletic.

And skillwise, Olynyk (and Muscala) are the most skilled bigs in this draft...by far. Olynyk reminds me of Brad Miller, who was extremely effective in his prime. To me, he's a no brainer pick at the spot we're at.

[truwizfan4evr]

Does anyone like laurence bowers game? http://hoopshype.com/videos/videos/laur ... underrated

[gambitx777]

On top of this consider several intangibles: 1. KO played PG many years. This will enable him to have good court awareness. 2. He is the son of a Canadien national team coach. He will train and mentally prepare well and with maturity beyond his youth. 3. He finished his accounting degree and is working toward his graduate degree. KO is disciplined, smart probably with money matters, and a guy who probably has some leadership potential.

Olynyk is a good choice for Washington. If anything he's underrated.

Great post, I love Olynyk,
I think his intelligence and work ethic will keep him in the league for a long time. The skill is there, sure he is not a super athlete, but he can be something special IMO.

[hands11]

People might think I'm crazy, but Dieng might be a better pick for this team than anyone on the board, and you guys know how much I love Olynyk.

Seriously, to the point where I might actually consider picking him 8th.

Reason being he helps us on two ends--we don't have to keep Okafor long term which gives us a ton of money we can use and he helps us solidify the center position for years to come. Dieng is just PERFECT for todays game--he can defend the PNR better than anyone not named Noel, and maybe even that's arguable, he's a great rim protector--louisvilles entire system is only possible for him to clean up the errors.

The best part of it is that you can remove the biggest scare for this team moving forward--relying on an aging front court to retain our identity. We essentially can replace Okafor and get younger, freeing up that money in the process to strengthen other positions, all without changing our defensive identity.

I'd prefer to trade up and get him that way so we get two picks, but I think there's an argument that Dieng fills the biggest need we have moving forward on this team when you think long term.

Its been a two man race for me between Len and Dieng and I have posted one over the over at different times so I have no problem taking Dieng at 8th. And he age an maturity probably fits them better then a 20 year old. That said, I also would have no problem at all with

CJM and Mike Muscala. The problem with that though, is you have no idea if you will be able to get Muscala so would have to be willing to be happy walking with CJM and Erik Murphy instead and that doesn't help you at defensive center. But it would help with ball handing, guard shooting and S4 shooting which are things they really need to add.

[doclinkin]

There's a interesting article about olynyk that explains why he didn't play his first couple years

http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... iY.twitter

worth a read, but basically he worked really hard doing weird/tough hand-eye cordination drills. Which explains why he's a beast at finishing around the hoop.

Holy crap. I didn't realize Olynyk's redshirt year was after his first two seasons at Gonzaga! Am I the only one who missed this?

Read that article, people. Highly impressive stuff. Speaks really well to his character and willingness to put in the work to improve. I can't think of a single college player who basically took a year off, without transferring, to remake his body and retrain his brain.

Yeah. Interesting and it explains alot, suggests it may be sustainable not a fluke year. Hmmn, thinking. Well I'm convinceable. Maybe I'll hunt down some games against his bigger competition, see him again.

[gambitx777]

^ I agree I have no problem with him at 8 But I think it comes down to him or Olynyk if we keep the pick.

But, I would not hate taking a PG at 8, because we need depth. If smart enters the draft after all, Burke could fall right in to our laps. plus CJM would still be a respectable pick at 8. Or again I think we should at least consider moving back with Atlanta or the Jazz. then grabbing a big and a PG, that way the risk is a little bit lower and we fill two needs. Shane Larkin and Steven Adams would be a nice first round draft and we could still maybe get Daing mid round as well or go after Erick Green.