Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Dark Faze]

woo boy, mediocre to good production pick based completely on potential, injury concerns/lack of an ability to contribute in year 1 (basically draft and stash)...UGH

Our situation right now is such that by the time that Len can really help us we'll be close to having a huge availability of cap space anyway, so even in a situation where he became Marc Gasol, it still wouldn't be earth shattering due to our ability to get close to his value by offering a max deal to a big in FA.

The upside just seems very small and the downside seems huge. I'd rather just draft Dieng and be done with it or even Oladipo or CJM for some bench depth.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Wall and Beal being 20 and 23 doesn’t seem like a good justification for taking on a 20 year old project center. That we hypothetically think he’s the best prospect on the board and a potential long term impact player would be a justification, but elite young guards coming into their primes to me would be a better reason not to take Len.

Ideally, you’d have a high upside project center started before you get your perimeter set as the backcourt is going to bloom early while the center is going to need a long development cycle before he’s really a plus on the court from the perspective of actually winning games. There’s exceptions, but guys like Noah are rather unusual there. It’s not so much a question of production or numbers as it is the defense; Len might well be productive early, but his overall presence will probably be a net negative for a while.

A good situation for this sort of thinking would be like Vucevic on the Magic; he’s putting up big numbers with horrific help defense and developing while a gutterball Magic club finished 8-342 or whatever. It’s not a problem though, as they’re tanking again next year and probably come away with a one-and-done wing who’s five years younger than Vucevic. By the time the star-wing is seasoned and ready to win playoff games, Vucevic is well savy and probably makes good rotations as a fundamentally sound positional defender. Lillard and Aldridge would be another good example of nice timing (of course they entirely lack a center who's ready to play).

I’ll be glad if Len is there at 8 for us, but the likelihood is high that there’s friction between Wall and Beal needing steady interior play before Len can deliver. It’s not a reason not to pick him outright, but it would be surprising if that subplot were not evident with Len here.

Aside from that, Ernie picking Len with a possible “make the playoffs or else” ultimatum hanging over him is questionable too, though unrelated to the above.

[nate33]

woo boy, mediocre to good production pick based completely on potential, injury concerns/lack of an ability to contribute in year 1 (basically draft and stash)...UGH

Our situation right now is such that by the time that Len can really help us we'll be close to having a huge availability of cap space anyway, so even in a situation where he became Marc Gasol, it still wouldn't be earth shattering due to our ability to get close to his value by offering a max deal to a big in FA.

I don't understand this logic. Wouldn't it be better to have a highly productive young center AND cap room? We could use the cap room for other positions of need.

Besides, if you are talking about 2016 as the time when we have cap room, I think it's a bad idea to make too many assumptions that far down the road. Yes, Nene comes off the books then, but Wall will be in the middle of a max deal, Beal will be due for a new contract, and we'll probably have at least one other big contract on the books that we added in 2014. Add in the price of any rookie contracts and mid-priced veterans, and I doubt we will have any cap room anyhow.

[fishercob]

woo boy, mediocre to good production pick based completely on potential, injury concerns/lack of an ability to contribute in year 1 (basically draft and stash)...UGH

Our situation right now is such that by the time that Len can really help us we'll be close to having a huge availability of cap space anyway, so even in a situation where he became Marc Gasol, it still wouldn't be earth shattering due to our ability to get close to his value by offering a max deal to a big in FA.

The upside just seems very small and the downside seems huge. I'd rather just draft Dieng and be done with it or even Oladipo or CJM for some bench depth.

There's no situation in which Len becoming Marc Gasol would not be earth shattering (I'm not making a Frankenstein joke, either). What on earth is the possible downside of having Wall, Beal and Len as proven building blocks and a boatload of cap space? There's massive upside in that scenario.

Still very much waiting on the DX breakdown to form a fuller opinion of Len.

[verbal8]

The upside just seems very small and the downside seems huge. I'd rather just draft Dieng and be done with it or even Oladipo or CJM for some bench depth.

I like Dieng, but I think his upside is a lot smaller than Len. I see him as a trade-back target, but a reach at #8.

It is hard not to like C.J. McCollum's shooting, but I don't think he projects much beyond a 6th man. Although if you see him as potential 6th man of the year, that may not be too much of a reach.

Oladipo might be tempting if he measures out long enough to play some SF, he also would have to show comfort with the NBA 3 point line.

[Deeptu McPullup]

From the three or so games I've seen, Bazz is like a less athletic Al Thornton with almost no isolation scoring ability but much better off the ball skills, court awareness and hands.

Make of that what you will, but it would be advisable not to make the 8th pick of it.

Though I will say that if Bazz showed up that the combine and/or workouts and showed off a level of burst and hops that he didn't have at UCLA, he'd be under strong consideration for me; that would make him a totally different player. Not sure that's a likely scenario, but some seem to think his body was off this year.

[tontoz]

I really don't know what to do. Everyone available at 8 will have some issues. Maybe things will become clearer as we get closer to the draft.

[DCZards]

I’ll be glad if Len is there at 8 for us, but the likelihood is high that there’s friction between Wall and Beal needing steady interior play before Len can deliver. It’s not a reason not to pick him outright, but it would be surprising if that subplot were not evident with Len here.

Steady interior play? Well, there's this guy named Okafor on the roster (for at least one more year maybe more) who provides just that. Not much of a scorer but as solid as rock when it comes to toughness, D and rebounding. On top of that, he's a respected, thoughtful guy who is a leader in the locker room and a workout warrior that's worthy of emulation by youngins like Wall, Beal, etc. He'd also be a great guy for Len to be around.

[Ruzious]

The upside just seems very small and the downside seems huge. I'd rather just draft Dieng and be done with it or even Oladipo or CJM for some bench depth.

I like Dieng, but I think his upside is a lot smaller than Len. I see him as a trade-back target, but a reach at #8.

It is hard not to like C.J. McCollum's shooting, but I don't think he projects much beyond a 6th man. Although if you see him as potential 6th man of the year, that may not be too much of a reach.

Oladipo might be tempting if he measures out long enough to play some SF, he also would have to show comfort with the NBA 3 point line.

My guess on Oladipo's measurements - he won't be more than 6'5 in shoes (I'll guess 6'4.75.), but he'll have SF length combined with excellent verticle. It depends on your perspective if that's enough for him to play the 3. I think he can, but he's better off at the 2, and he'll have to convince doubter that he can play the 3. I guess with the Zards, it'd come down to him playing 10 minutes a game at the 2 and 20 at the 3. It's not ideal, but it could be workable.

[fishercob]

I’ll be glad if Len is there at 8 for us, but the likelihood is high that there’s friction between Wall and Beal needing steady interior play before Len can deliver. It’s not a reason not to pick him outright, but it would be surprising if that subplot were not evident with Len here.

Aside from that, Ernie picking Len with a possible “make the playoffs or else” ultimatum hanging over him is questionable too, though unrelated to the above.

Except that Nene and Okafor can deliver in the interim, provided they're healthy. If we don't get much from Len this year or next, we could still get decent production from the center position. We can always re-sign Okafor for a year if we want to.

I'm more worried about the second paragraph. It's impossible to not look at Ernie's history of trading picks for "veterans who can help us now" and not be concerned. He has a terrible track record of thinking his teams are closer than they are. This is where I'm a little hopeful that Ted would be a good influence. He's made clear that he believes in drafting and developing young players. Ernie is going to have to make a really compelling case to him that deviating from that philosophy makes sense. I can't see Ted going for a trade for someone older than 26 who is a proven producer and fills a need -- meaning it's probably not going to happen.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Steady interior play? Well, there's this guy named Okafor on the roster (for at least one more year maybe more) who provides just that. Not much of a scorer but as solid as rock when it comes to toughness, D and rebounding. On top of that, he's a respected, thoughtful guy who is a leader in the locker room and a workout warrior that's worthy of emulation by youngins like Wall, Beal, etc. He'd also be a great guy for Len to be around.

Except that Nene and Okafor can deliver in the interim, provided they're healthy. If we don't get much from Len this year or next, we could still get decent production from the center position. We can always re-sign Okafor for a year if we want to.

I realize that, but the 8th is our premier asset this offseason and it's inherently flexible with potential utility at any position, so it could theoretically be spent in a way that maximizes longer term value (a project), short term value (trade for a veteran) or something in between (a college player who's ready now). For a team trying to win, there is an implicit pressure to get near term benefit from the offseason's prime asset with it requiring a great deal of discipline to entirely ignore that.

Nene and Okafor lessen the necessity of an additional interior player now, but they are expensive and Len as a long term development asset means we need to plug other holes with.....much, much more humble means.

Aside from that, I believe you guys are seriously underestimating how long it's going to take Len - or just about any 20 year old center - to be a guy who actually helps you win basketball games. It's the most difficult position and Wall in particular is coming into his prime years right now.

If I had to wager, I'd say the odds are we go the third road and pick "something in between", which is to say a college player who can play soon if not immediately (possibly also a trade for a guy on a rookie contract). This will be good for the job security of the front office in that they'd have a productive rookie to boast of and for the salary structure over the next four years (a big problem if we trade for a vet).

Ernie has to be thinking that, even if Len does develop, it might not be while he or Len are even here (a Tyson Chandler like development profile, for example). It's not a selection that screams out "lame duck year front office pick"; it's home run swing that would pay off in the long run, if at all.

I really don't know what to do. Everyone available at 8 will have some issues. Maybe things will become clearer as we get closer to the draft.

That's pretty much my position too.

[fishercob]

I don't think I'm underestimating. Because I think you shine an important light on the eval process. You have to make a call on how quickly he'll be ready. If you say, " I recognize the upside, but I don't see how he's less than four years away" you don't pick him. But if you say "this kid mastered English in two years, played with ineffectual and selfish guards, lives for basketball, and will continue to learn a a high rate, isn't close to done filling out" then you pick him.

I'll never have enough info pre-draft to know whether Len is the right pick. But I know what questions I want answered.

[jivelikenice]

If we stay at 8, I hope Ernie gets the idea that its the 8th pick out of his head and takes the player who he likes best. I can't help but think that one of the reasons he took Vesely in '11 was that he couldn't justify in hs mind taking Thompson or Kawhi at 6. Instead of playing it safe, he thought at 6 you had to gamble big. I also think players that we're not thinking of in a top 8 light will move up the boards as the workouts and the combine occur. In particular I'm focused on Gobbert, Caldwell-Pope, Glen Rice Jr, and Dieng. There's no reason to be a prisoner to where you're selecting. Ernie needs to take the player he likes the most, that can contribute at least in a bench capacity immediately.

[nate33]

Wall and Beal being 20 and 23 doesn’t seem like a good justification for taking on a 20 year old project center. That we hypothetically think he’s the best prospect on the board and a potential long term impact player would be a justification, but elite young guards coming into their primes to me would be a better reason not to take Len.

Ideally, you’d have a high upside project center started before you get your perimeter set as the backcourt is going to bloom early while the center is going to need a long development cycle before he’s really a plus on the court from the perspective of actually winning games. There’s exceptions, but guys like Noah are rather unusual there. It’s not so much a question of production or numbers as it is the defense; Len might well be productive early, but his overall presence will probably be a net negative for a while.

A good situation for this sort of thinking would be like Vucevic on the Magic; he’s putting up big numbers with horrific help defense and developing while a gutterball Magic club finished 8-342 or whatever. It’s not a problem though, as they’re tanking again next year and probably come away with a one-and-done wing who’s five years younger than Vucevic. By the time the star-wing is seasoned and ready to win playoff games, Vucevic is well savy and probably makes good rotations as a fundamentally sound positional defender. Lillard and Aldridge would be another good example of nice timing (of course they entirely lack a center who's ready to play).

I’ll be glad if Len is there at 8 for us, but the likelihood is high that there’s friction between Wall and Beal needing steady interior play before Len can deliver. It’s not a reason not to pick him outright, but it would be surprising if that subplot were not evident with Len here.

Aside from that, Ernie picking Len with a possible “make the playoffs or else” ultimatum hanging over him is questionable too, though unrelated to the above.

While you are certainly right that it's better to draft the young big first, and then the young guards, things just didn't work out like that for us. Our young bigs turned out to be the dynamic duo of Kevin Seraphin and Jan Vesely. In theory, they should be great players and great fits. One is the low post scorer and space eater, the other the roaming help defender who runs the floor and finishes alley oops. Unfortunately, they both stink.

The next best plan if you don't draft the young big first, is to acquire a couple of veteran bigs who can handle most of the workload, and then gradually cede minutes to the youngster over time. A good example is Omar Asik who developed behind Noah and Boozer while the team played winning basketball. Unfortunately, the Bulls screwed up by signing Boozer for too long and couldn't afford to keep Asik.

We potentially have that type of environment with Nene and Okafor as vets, only the way things project, we will have the cap room to keep Len if he pans out to be a quality center.

[jivelikenice]

Anyone see much of Caldwell Pope in college? I read Chad Ford yesterday say he thinks he'll jump into the top 10 so I looked at a couple of clips. Any reason he hasn't been mentioned much here?

[fishercob]

Oooh, good point nate. Also remember Memo Okur developing behind the Wallaces in Detroit and leaving for Utah in free agency (of course he was 23 as a rook). We can develop Len -- and then keep him.

[Dat2U]

The upside just seems very small and the downside seems huge. I'd rather just draft Dieng and be done with it or even Oladipo or CJM for some bench depth.

I like Dieng, but I think his upside is a lot smaller than Len. I see him as a trade-back target, but a reach at #8.

It is hard not to like C.J. McCollum's shooting, but I don't think he projects much beyond a 6th man. Although if you see him as potential 6th man of the year, that may not be too much of a reach.

Oladipo might be tempting if he measures out long enough to play some SF, he also would have to show comfort with the NBA 3 point line.

My guess on Oladipo's measurements - he won't be more than 6'5 in shoes (I'll guess 6'4.75.), but he'll have SF length combined with excellent verticle. It depends on your perspective if that's enough for him to play the 3. I think he can, but he's better off at the 2, and he'll have to convince doubter that he can play the 3. I guess with the Zards, it'd come down to him playing 10 minutes a game at the 2 and 20 at the 3. It's not ideal, but it could be workable.

If Oladipo has SF length (I don't care about the height), then I really hope he falls to us. Oladipo at the 3 with Wall & Beal would give the Wizards the fastest perimeter trio baseline to baseline in the league. We'd run teams out the building. Plus Oladipo's skillset more ideally resembles a SF. His slashing ability against slower 3s would be a real weapon. If his shot continues to improve then the sky would be the limit.

[fishercob]

Remember when Wall, McGee and Vesely were going to run teams out of the building?

[nate33]

I like Dieng, but I think his upside is a lot smaller than Len. I see him as a trade-back target, but a reach at #8.

It is hard not to like C.J. McCollum's shooting, but I don't think he projects much beyond a 6th man. Although if you see him as potential 6th man of the year, that may not be too much of a reach.

Oladipo might be tempting if he measures out long enough to play some SF, he also would have to show comfort with the NBA 3 point line.

My guess on Oladipo's measurements - he won't be more than 6'5 in shoes (I'll guess 6'4.75.), but he'll have SF length combined with excellent verticle. It depends on your perspective if that's enough for him to play the 3. I think he can, but he's better off at the 2, and he'll have to convince doubter that he can play the 3. I guess with the Zards, it'd come down to him playing 10 minutes a game at the 2 and 20 at the 3. It's not ideal, but it could be workable.

If Oladipo has SF length (I don't care about the height), then I really hope he falls to us. Oladipo at the 3 with Wall & Beal would give the Wizards the fastest perimeter trio baseline to baseline in the league. We'd run teams out the building. Plus Oladipo's skillset more ideally resembles a SF. His slashing ability against slower 3s would be a real weapon. If his shot continues to improve then the sky would be the limit.

Unfortunately, if he has SF length, then there's no chance he slides to #8 We would have to get a top 3 pick to take him.

If he does indeed have a SF's length (8'-9" standing reach or better) then he would probably be my #2 pick on the board behind only Noel. His downside would be a SF version of Tony Allen which is a really good player and a great fit on our roster. I'd take a SF-sized version of Oladipo over Porter, Bennett and McLemore.

[Dat2U]

Remember when Wall, McGee and Vesely were going to run teams out of the building?

LOL, no! I do remember wanting to run Ernie out of the damn building for drafting Vesely though.

Like I said, I like Oladipo's skillset at the 3. If he can legitimately play there, he'd really fit well with Wall & Beal. He's got enough slashing & shooting ability to really cause problems as ultra athletic 3.