2014 Discussion Thread

[humanrefutation]

All of these sell-now moves assume that the FO is smart enough to identify prospects worthy of pursuing. They look like they've hit on Segura, but I don't know if their history shows that they can identify young talent that well.

[Kerb Hohl]

What other precedent is there, really? The Sexson trade way back was definitely a win but maybe not the dominance that everyone had thought. Carlos Lee trade was a failure. We may have had Royals syndrome at the time trying to "win now" because it had been so long that we got caught up in Kevin Mench's large head and steroids. Greinke for Segura was a steal in that sell trade.

I would imagine in those cases, Doug Melvin gets involved. Seid or whichever drafting/scouting guys probably have something on Segura but I think Melvin and his top scouts actually have a say in that. In terms of the draft, our staff there seems to suck...but that's not Melvin.

[ReasonablySober]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joe_sheehan/status/337635602684063745[/tweet]

[jakecronus8]

Aoki could probably get you a good return as well. True leadoff guy.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah I'd sell high on Nori. He's good but not a .400 OBP guy as he is showing right now.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/ ... ievers-mlb

This insider article on Shutdowns and meltdowns, heres the explanation

Shutdowns (and its negative equivalent, "meltdowns") works on the premise of win probability added. You can read the full description here, but it is essentially a context-based stat that identifies how important each play in a game was towards a team winning or losing.

This works perfectly for relievers, since the setup man who enters with the bases loaded in the eighth is often much more directly involved in the outcome than the closer who gets to start a clean inning in the ninth, even though it's the latter pitcher who will get the "save." Shutdowns are awarded when a pitcher increases his team's win probability by at least 6 percent in a game, while meltdowns come when a reliever costs his team by at least that same amount.

Guess which reliever leads the league in "meltdowns"?
2013 "Meltdown" Leaders
Player Team Meltdowns
Mike Gonzalez Brewers 9
Ronald Belisario Dodgers 8
Nate Jones White Sox 7
Fernando Salas Cardinals 7
Shawn Camp Cubs 7
Mitchell Boggs Cardinals 7
Antonio Bastardo Phillies 6
Scott Downs Angels 6
Kyle Farnsworth Rays 6
John Axford Brewers 6
Pedro Strop Orioles 6


I know the guy has been better lately but hes been mostly crap. So for whoever it was telling me Gonzalez wasn't as bad as Axford and its not even close, umm yeah.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Also the Shutdowns if anyones interested (just posting the names not the paragraphs because its insider and i think thats how the rules work here on that)

1. Mark Melancon, Pirates (17 shutdowns)
2. Edward Mujica, Cardinals (15)
t-3. Jesse Crain, White Sox/Mariano Rivera, Yankees (14)
t-5. Aroldis Chapman, Reds/Jim Johnson, Orioles/Addison Reed, White Sox

[trwi7]

Brandon (WI)

Is it time for the Brewers to blow it up (i.e. trade Hart, Weeks, Lohse, Ramirez, etc.)? Or do they try to ride one of Braun's peak years into fringe contention? They sure could use some young position players in their system.

Klaw
(1:49 PM)

I don't know if they would do that, but they're about a month or so away from needing to decide.

[blazza18]

I saw on twitter both Braun and Attanasio were displeased with how the team is performing atm. If this continues I could see some changes being made.

We do have some nice pieces contenders might like imo.

[coolhandluke121]

This reminds me of last year, in the sense that I think this team is talented but has a few flat tires, if you will. Last year it was the bullpen and SS for most of the year, with Nyjer, Gomez, and Weeks being liabilities for extended periods as well. But they got back in the playoff chase as some guys started to return to career norms, and that could happen this year as well.

I'm just not ready to give up on a team with this line-up, regardless of pitching. It's still early. I guess I think some of the problems could work themselves out, and there's really not that many holes to fill. Just like last year, a few bad pitchers can make the whole team look so much worse than it is. But just like last year, we're basically only talking about a few bad pitchers. Gallardo and Lohse are decent. Peralta and Estrada are capable of more. They lack a true #1, but you don't need that to make the playoffs these days. Bullpens can go from near-worst in the majors to near-best in the majors within the same season because they're subject to extreme fluctuations. Hart will be better than Yuni, even on one leg. I'm giving it some time.

[trwi7]

I think the season is over. We're already 10+ games behind two teams that we knew going in were more talented than us (Reds and Cardinals) and we're 10 games behind the Pirates who are probably around the same talent level while being 5-7 games behind other teams that are also more talented than us (Nats, Giants, D'Backs).

[coolhandluke121]

I think the season is over. We're already 10+ games behind two teams that we knew going in were more talented than us (Reds and Cardinals) and we're 10 games behind the Pirates who are probably around the same talent level while being 5-7 games behind other teams that are also more talented than us (Nats, Giants, D'Backs).

Certainly if I had to bet one way or the other, I would bet that way. I realize that those margins are hard to overcome, even with significant improvement from several under-performing players. But it's not like all those teams are all that great, and I think the Brewers are talented enough to go on a huge run. The lineup is potentially awesome if Weeks and Hart can contribute anything at all the rest of the way. And I don't use the word "awesome" lightly, the way these kids do nowadays. (Stupid punks.)

[Kerb Hohl]

I will say in my analysis of Aoki on a few different threads, he is more legit than I had thought. I normally check up on these guys' whole minors-major career and I forgot that Aoki was usually a .330/.400 guy with 15 HR in Japan.

[coolhandluke121]

Another way to look at it is this: Even if Aoki, Gomez, and Segura just play a little above average the rest of the way, (doubtful that all 3 play up to their current level - all I'm asking for is a little above average), we will still be able to look back on their seasons and say they were all-star caliber players overall. That means once Hart is back, every single player in the lineup will have had an all-star caliber season within the last 3 seasons (if you count Luc's ~100 games last season, obviously). Braun, Hart, Weeks, and A-Ram will have had multiple all-star caliber seasons within the last 4. And only A-Ram is older than 31.

Obviously they won't all play like all-stars at the same time, and obviously Weeks and Hart aren't great bets to be any better than average, if that. Lucroy can't duplicate last season over 140 games. Aoki, Gomez, and Segura will see some regression - how much is hard to tell because we can't be 100% sure what their baseline is at this point. That said, there's sick, sick potential in this lineup. I do wish they had another lefty bat though.

[raysbookclub]

it's depressing that with Aoki, Segura, Braun, Ramirez, and Gomez hitting the way they have, along with a bullpen that has been very good recently, that the team still has such a poor record.

our starting pitching, ugh. gallardo we hoped would build on last year's second half and pitch deeper into games, pitch like a true 1 or 2. fiers we hoped would pitch like last year, pre-august. peralta we hoped would pitch like he did in his few starts last year. rogers we hoped would at least be a bullpen arm. narveson we hoped would compete hard for a rotation spot and either get it or push whoever beat him out to pitch great.

none of those happened, unfortunately.

anyway, next year:
OF: Braun, Gomez, Aoki (still too cheap and good to trade), Schafer, Gindl

IF: ARam, Segura, Gennett (i think Weeks can't be the starter, to negate his 2015 option), Morris, Gamel, a free agent

C: Lucroy, Maldonado

SP: Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Burgos, Nelson

RP: Henderson, Fiers, Narveson, Gorzelanny, Thornburg, Kintzler, a free agent signing

Maybe we put together a trade for an ace-type guy. If we do that, Yo stays. If we don't, Yo is traded mid-season next year.

[trwi7]

Aoki is exactly the type of guy you trade at this point. He's cheap, he's under control, he has a lot of value to contenders but he's also 31. Don't hold onto him until he falls off a cliff and has no value. Especially when we're not going to be competing.

[Kerb Hohl]

Also, Gennett projects to be Chris Getz and Hunter Morris projects to be Travis Ishikawa in their primes. Planning around them is putting 2 more holes in the lineup. Of course they may not be as frustrating as Weeks at his worst but I wouldn't plan around them.

There is a little hope for Morris but I think it's a pretty sure bet that he won't be a stud. Looking at his numbers more he does look like a plus SLG guy. Maybe .260/.335/.500?

[Kerb Hohl]

I'll revise my Hunter Morris projection a bit. I think he can be a 25 HR guy that should only face righties. He'll be a .260 guy with a pretty crappy .320 OBP but he'll hit a bunch of bombs.

Get a cheap, vet righty to platoon at 1B. Davis in RF with maybe Gamel or a cheap LH bat so that Davis doesn't have to face all the righties as a righty himself.

Trade Aramis, Lohse, Hart, Weeks, Aoki for any young pitching you can.

[ReasonablySober]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/robneyer/status/339756502443257857[/tweet]

[Siefer]

The Brewers have four players in the top 14 (MLB) in WAR, and 3 in the top 24 (MLB) in OBPS. It's actually incredible how poorly they're doing.