Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[Dat2U]

You're vastly overrating Harden's ball handling ability when he came out of college. It was a universally noted weakness. And he was totally left hand dominant. It wasn't until his third season in the NBA he demonstrated that elite creative ability. And you're underrating Muhammad's ability to score off the bounce. His offhand is clearly weak, but he's actually pretty creative with his dominant hand and does a nice job getting into the paint and scoring over multiple defenders, particularly with that awesome floater game. He's an off the ball player by nature, but he does put the ball on the floor and score.

You are completely wrong. There was never any question about Harden's ball-handling. He had advanced ball-skills college. His skill set is leagues beyond anything Bazz showed. All the questions revolved around whether he was athletic enough to utilize his ball skills to create shots. Harden has answered those questions with flying colors.

Bazz is ISO heavy, high volume jump shooter. He doesn't create a lick for others. He's another two dribble guy, take more than two and he's probably in trouble. He's like an older version of Caron Butler. Jab step, hesitation, jab step, hesitation, shoot. If he puts up 20 shots, he might give you 19 pts. That's the type of career I expect him to have.

[pancakes3]

So... Quintin Richardson?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... aqu01.html

[Nivek]

Anyone know why the draft combine results don't include the bench press test?

No, but I question whether it has any value.

I do too, but it's the only objective publicly available strength measure. As such, I use it in a limited way in YODA. Won't make a huge difference to a guy's overall score, but I'd like to have it.

[AFM]

Bazz is already better than QRich. Not that that's saying much.
Jerry Stackhouse is a better comparison. Except Bazz shoots the 3 better.

[GhostsOfGil]

Anyone know why the draft combine results don't include the bench press test?

No, but I question whether it has any value.

I do too, but it's the only objective publicly available strength measure. As such, I use it in a limited way in YODA. Won't make a huge difference to a guy's overall score, but I'd like to have it.

Eh..bench press has value. Chest strength doesn't, but a bench rep number puts some insight into a players overall strength. If a guy can bench 185, 15+ times than you can make some pretty accurate assumptions about his overall strength. See Trevor Booker.

[Nivek]

Bazz is already better than QRich. Not that that's saying much.
Jerry Stackhouse is a better comparison. Except Bazz shoots the 3 better.

I don't see any way to justify the claim that Muhammad is "already better" than QRich, unless you're referring to the broken-down, 32-year old QRich. Comparing freshman year to freshman year, QRich was more efficient offensively, and got nearly twice as many rebounds per minute. Richardson's sophomore season was comparable in some ways -- same 2pt%, similar 3pt%, similar FT%, similar overall efficiency, BUT Richardson again got nearly twice as many rebounds per minute, and more than double the assists.

Muhammad supporters could try arguing that he's maybe about as good a prospect as Richardson, but they'd still have to get around those pesky rebounds -- Richardson was an aggressive and effective rebounder, Muhammad is not.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Just curious with all the shabazz talk, what do you think about Bullock as a shabazz SF alternative later in the draft?

To me he looks like a good fit for us. Maybe take a big with our top pick, and Bullock at 37, or maybe try to move up from 37 for him if needed?

[Nivek]

Just curious with all the shabazz talk, what do you think about Bullock as a shabazz SF alternative later in the draft?

To me he looks like a good fit for us. Maybe take a big with our top pick, and Bullock at 37, or maybe try to move up from 37 for him if needed?

I think Bullock could be a good fit for the Wizards, especially if they can get him in the 2nd round. I'd prefer him to Muhammad. I think Bullock has a good chance to be a better pro than Muhammad.

[Ruzious]

Just curious with all the shabazz talk, what do you think about Bullock as a shabazz SF alternative later in the draft?

To me he looks like a good fit for us. Maybe take a big with our top pick, and Bullock at 37, or maybe try to move up from 37 for him if needed?

I think Bullock could be a good fit for the Wizards, especially if they can get him in the 2nd round. I'd prefer him to Muhammad. I think Bullock has a good chance to be a better pro than Muhammad.

He really does fit the 3 & D role at the SF position. I think he'll go late 1st, but ya never know. I think his teammate, PJ Hairston, has more potential, but Bullock seems like more of a blue collar type who gets the most out of his abilities. For example, Hairston's got the prettiest jump shot you'll see, but Bullock's worked so hard on his ugly looking j's to the point where he made a higher percentage of his 3's than Hairston and former teammate Harrison Barnes.

[Nivek]

YODA agrees with you on Hairston. Why isn't he in the draft?

[jivelikenice]

Any idea on how Glen Rice looked at the Combine? I read that he tested out well athleticially, but that was it...

[Dat2U]

I'm mixed on Bullock. He doesn't seem as athletic as Danny Green was and even Green could do a little more off the dribble than Bullock shows. Green was a 2/3. Bullock is a 3. Bullock is strictly a catch & shoot guy. I don't know how well he's stacks up with NBA SFs athletically or physically. He may be like Green in that he'll get drafted in the 2nd round and bounce around the league a bit before settling into a role. I think 2nd round is fine but 1st round might be reaching.

[pancakes3]

I'm mixed on Bullock. He doesn't seem as athletic as Danny Green was and even Green could do a little more off the dribble than Bullock shows. Green was a 2/3. Bullock is a 3. Bullock is strictly a catch & shoot guy. I don't know how well he's stacks up with NBA SFs athletically or physically. He may be like Green in that he'll get drafted in the 2nd round and bounce around the league a bit before settling into a role. I think 2nd round is fine but 1st round might be reaching.

Bullock has taken just as many FT's as Danny Green and his 2p% is 54.5% vs Danny Green's senior season of 51.6% so I think it's only fair to say that the two are equally (in)capable of scoring off the dribble. Bullock is strictly a 3 though. He's 6'7, bulky and would be pretty ineffective chasing around 2-guards.

I like Bullock and think he's one of the most underrated names in the country. At least McAdoo gets recognition for his college game, if not NBA hype. There's nada on Bullock and I felt he was the best, if not most consistent player on the tar heels last year. He's a strong rebounder, smart decision maker, judicious shooter, solid defender. I'd go as far as to say he'll provide Battier-esque production except I don't think his defense will be as cerebral. As far as where he should go? I think anything in the 20's is reasonable. A reach maybe, but still within the realm of reason.

[Dat2U]

Bullock has taken just as many FT's as Danny Green and his 2p% is 54.5% vs Danny Green's senior season of 51.6% so I think it's only fair to say that the two are equally (in)capable of scoring off the dribble. Bullock is strictly a 3 though. He's 6'7, bulky and would be pretty ineffective chasing around 2-guards.

I don't think you can infer ones skill set strictly based on stats, the eye test IMO is always required. We agree on Bullock being a 3 only though. And I certainly agree he's a better prospect than McAdoo.

[Ruzious]

YODA agrees with you on Hairston. Why isn't he in the draft?

He didn't declare - I think he's a sophomore... with a jump shot like buddah.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not sure why anyone is pointing to Barnes as if he was such a big "I told you so". Barnes was drafted 7th in the draft. It's a pretty good bet that Davis, Beal and Drummond will be better. And it's 50/50 that Lillard, MKG and Waiters will be better. I wouldn't rule out Henson either.

Essentially, he was drafted 7th and he should have been drafted somewhere in the 4-8 range. Seems like the GM's pretty much got it right. Only one clearly inferior player was drafted ahead of him: Thomas Robinson.

Average 4-year PER for a 7th overall pick was 15.2 in the study I did a couple years ago of production by draft slot. Barnes will have to improve a bunch to reach that level.

Wall's PER has been 15.8, 17.7, 20.8 his three seasons.

Barnes impressed me in the playoffs by how assertively he played. He rebounded very well. Barnes stepped up taking threes without hesitating, and by creating shots off the dribble. That said, when the smoke cleared and the dust settled his playoff PER was 14.0. Nivek's OP says even Barnes' PER is not great for the 7th overall pick. His regular season PER was 11.0.

By comparison, Beal had a PER of 13.6.

What I think is both Barnes and Beal are going to improve with added strength. Beal is a year younger and IMO unquestionably the better player of the two. I feel justified not buying the pre-draft hype on Barnes, but he has exceeded my (low) expectations. (I said McDermott will be the better of the two HS teammates. Still believe that FWIW). Barnes is a decent pro. He landed in the perfect situation. Like Beal, Barnes seems like class act on and off the court.

[jivelikenice]

I didn't pay too much attention to Bennett because I didn't think he'd be there at 8 frankly, but with Zeller and Oladpio testing well in Chicago, I'm beginning to re-think that. Bennet looks like he has great offensive skill. That's undeniable. His defensive awareness and hustle have come into big question. There are two questions I have in terms of his fit here; 1. Can he contribute immediately?; 2. Assuming we draft him, and re-sign Webster; how do we sufficiently address the hole at the 3rd guard spot. Question #2 frankly applies to any scenario where we draft a big at 8. Maybe they shop Ariza plus one of the young forwards for the best combo guard available??

[verbal8]

I didn't pay too much attention to Bennett because I didn't think he'd be there at 8 frankly, but with Zeller and Oladpio testing well in Chicago, I'm beginning to re-think that. Bennet looks like he has great offensive skill. That's undeniable. His defensive awareness and hustle have come into big question. There are two questions I have in terms of his fit here; 1. Can he contribute immediately?; 2. Assuming we draft him, and re-sign Webster; how do we sufficiently address the hole at the 3rd guard spot. Question #2 frankly applies to any scenario where we draft a big at 8. Maybe they shop Ariza plus one of the young forwards for the best combo guard available??

If the Forwards are solidified through the draft and the MLE, there are a few ways to address depth in the backcourt:

The second round pick might have Nate Wolters or Erick Green available, who seem like they could fill the 3rd guard role for the Wizards.

There is the BAE that could be used on an older more limited player - it may be used on Barbosa if he is healthy.

Webster can play some SG, so they might be able to get away with just a back-up PG.

The Wizards might be able to use an undersized scoring guard from the DLeague.

[rockymac52]

I didn't pay too much attention to Bennett because I didn't think he'd be there at 8 frankly, but with Zeller and Oladpio testing well in Chicago, I'm beginning to re-think that. Bennet looks like he has great offensive skill. That's undeniable. His defensive awareness and hustle have come into big question. There are two questions I have in terms of his fit here; 1. Can he contribute immediately?; 2. Assuming we draft him, and re-sign Webster; how do we sufficiently address the hole at the 3rd guard spot. Question #2 frankly applies to any scenario where we draft a big at 8. Maybe they shop Ariza plus one of the young forwards for the best combo guard available??

If the Forwards are solidified through the draft and the MLE, there are a few ways to address depth in the backcourt:

The second round pick might have Nate Wolters or Erick Green available, who seem like they could fill the 3rd guard role for the Wizards.

There is the BAE that could be used on an older more limited player - it may be used on Barbosa if he is healthy.

Webster can play some SG, so they might be able to get away with just a back-up PG.

The Wizards might be able to use an undersized scoring guard from the DLeague.

I would have to think that our 2nd round pick would end up being a PG or SG if we draft a SF/PF/C at 8 and re-sign Webster. However, even if we end up picking a good player with that pick, I don't feel comfortable with him being our 1st guard off the bench this season. Even if Webster slides down to SG to be the primary backup guard. That's just a huge hole, and we're asking for another injury to Wall or Beal to derail our season. Obviously losing Wall or Beal would hurt us a ton no matter what, and in many ways, a big injury to one of them might be enough to make it a lost season on its own, but we need to be prepared for such a situation, and have somewhat capable backups ready to go. That's the difference between playoff teams and lottery teams (okay, one of them at least).

Basically you're proposing we stand pat, going with a combination of Webster, a 2nd round pick, and some fringe NBA-caliber retreads (aka Cartier Martin, Garrett Temple, and AJ Price - sound familiar?). I know there's only so much we can do in one offseason, and there's no need to blow up the entire roster just to get some better backup guards, but still.

I think it's incredibly likely that we end up drafting a SF/PF/C at the 8th pick, based mostly on our existing core players positions and the players in the draft likely to be picked top 10's positions. If that's the case, we're basically looking at signing one above average free agent with the MLE, and then filling the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys or d-leaguers. Personally I love Webster to death, but I think we may be better off going after a combo guard with the MLE, ideally Jarrett Jack. Partly because of overall talent, partly because of balancing out our roster. Of course, it seems like every team in the NBA would love to add a player like Jack for the MLE this offseason, so we may not be able to get him.

But I'm concerned that we're going to be left with a paper thin back court rotation with no suitable backups after we draft a SF/PF/C with the 8th pick and use the MLE on Webster. Maybe we don't need to solve every hole in our roster this offseason, and we could address the back court depth issue next offseason through the draft and free agency. But I'm impatient, so I want a back court upgrade! hahaha

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

i'm glad cody zellers numbers are reasonable and possibly can make a good pf in the league. I think at the 8th spot without a doubt we'll get a decent player. Thinking len most likely..but oladipo, porter, zeller, mccollum makes a long list of guys who'll fit in well. In the second round i'm now hopping for alan crabbe. I saw he was one of the guys we requested a meeting with and i think he can fit in as a third guard and he has huge size and wingspan. So len and crabbe is who i hope to get minimum

BruceO, I have a sneaking feeling Crabbe would be a good pick at #8.

Forget who asked me who this year's Faried is but I did notice Crabbe weeks before the NCAAs, when his coach overstepped in being demonstratively mean to him. Crabbe's not only a good physical specimen, but I think he's going to really improve over time based on what I infer from his background and upbringing that has been documented.

It was me.

Yay, thanks!

Zonker, these guys stand out as likely to exceed expectations:

Allen Crabbe, Jamaal Franklin, Colton Iverson, DJ Stephens, Zeke Marshall, Andre Roberson, Nate Wolters, Erick Green

McCollum is getting deserved good press. I think Cody Zeller will be considerably better than Tyler Zeller, and not a disappointment. Oladipo will exceed expectations. Michael Snaer hit a lot of big shots. He might stick and become a Spurs kind of player off the bench, even if his shot is streaky. Isaiah Canaan will be a good NBA sub. I also like Ray McCallum. He has round one talent. Andre Roberson will be like Darrell Arthur, a very solid energy player.

Guys likely to disappoint IMO: Steven Adams will not be another Drummond. Shabazz Muhammed won't be as good as Barnes. Trey Burke will be good not great. CJ Leslie as a lottery pick based on his freakish athleticism will be a little like Vesely getting picked 6th. I think the combine will overrate him.