Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[hands11]

sfam

You ask if Randy has equal voice in the process.

I don't believe I said he did. I said he would have a voice and I don't think that is a stretch. I would imagine that is true of most teams. What I was (speculating) was that all things being equal, I think Randy will have more of a voice this year.

Also, Randy is commenting on these players like he has a voice. But he does say, now that what I want, the front office might see if differently.

What I said was, with EG in his last year and EG being the politician he is (9 lives Ernie), all things being equal, I think he would want this pick to be a consensus pick. He would want Randy's buy in and he would want Ted to know he has Randy's buy in. I would expect he also wants Ted to know Don is onboard.

I see it as a process they will go through. I expect Don Newman to be involved as well.

What we had was a Randy interview. I think we can extract some information from that. I expect we can get much less from an EG interview because EG usually reveals anything when he talks. Randy is different. They are two completely different kinds of people.

Do that clear up what I was saying ?

[hands11]

Unless Grunfeld pulls a shocker, it wouldn't surprise me if Len falls a bit, maybe into the 15-25 range. Big guys his size with foot issues generally scare teams and considering how he's not going to be ready until December at earliest may cause many of the NBA team doctors to red flag him.

I wouldn't consider him at #3, I actually think he's a decent prospect, but he carries a high degree of risk of being bust. He's not only a developmental project but also at high risk for continued injury concerns.

Where you getting that date ?

As for the foot/ackle injury, it does kind of scream Big Z doesn't it.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/362/ ... -ilgauskas

7 good years. Not great. You hope for a player that makes it 10. Early health is most important while he is signed as a rookie so he can develop and contribute.

[nuposse04]

At this point, I'd be happy with what I currently believe to be the most likely scenario:

1) Porter at 3
2) Someone from Muscala, Murphy, etc pool at 37
3) Some high-beta guy that we can keep overseas or on the DLeague at 54
4) Re-signing Webster for Green/Rush money
5) Rolling into the deadline with the expiring contracts/cap space of Ariza and Okafor. Ariza would be gone for sure; okafor could potentially stay on a significantly reduced contract or could be used as a means to acquire more talent

Wall/Beal/Nene/Okafor/Webster/Ariza/Porter as a top 7 and then filling in after that.

I don't think resigning Webster is really an option unless Ariza is off the roster or a deal is already in place. All three (Porter included) are ideally SFs. There are bigger needs upfront & at guard that could be addressed with the MLE.

Would Ariza be more likely to exercise his PO knowing he's going to get very little playing time? He's going to be playing for a contract in '14 when lots of teams are going to try to stack their rosters. If he's not going to get an opportunity to showcase himself here is the one year contract really worth more than a potential MLE from another team for him in '14?

I'm trying to rationalize a way he realizes he isn't "really wanted" here so he should explore other prospects.

[hands11]

At this point, I'd be happy with what I currently believe to be the most likely scenario:

1) Porter at 3
2) Someone from Muscala, Murphy, etc pool at 37
3) Some high-beta guy that we can keep overseas or on the DLeague at 54
4) Re-signing Webster for Green/Rush money
5) Rolling into the deadline with the expiring contracts/cap space of Ariza and Okafor. Ariza would be gone for sure; okafor could potentially stay on a significantly reduced contract or could be used as a means to acquire more talent

Wall/Beal/Nene/Okafor/Webster/Ariza/Porter as a top 7 and then filling in after that.

I don't think resigning Webster is really an option unless Ariza is off the roster or a deal is already in place. All three (Porter included) are ideally SFs. There are bigger needs upfront & at guard that could be addressed with the MLE.

Would Ariza be more likely to exercise his PO knowing he's going to get very little playing time? He's going to be playing for a contract in '14 when lots of teams are going to try to stack their rosters. If he's not going to get an opportunity to showcase himself here is the one year contract really worth more than a potential MLE from another team for him in '14?

I'm trying to rationalize a way he realizes he isn't "really wanted" here so he should explore other prospects.

That the only reason I would see him walking from 7.7M in the bag. I think he would ask for a trade to a team he wanted to go to. If that couldn't happen, then he might consider walking so he could choose.

Its a possibility. I never thought he would give up the cash but that would be a rational reason why he might.

[spaceman_E]

You guys are way off on Len. Somehow people are confusing having untapped potential with being a project.

Len is an elite defender, a good rebounder, and a good finisher. His floor is defensive, backup/part-time C who will play in the league for 8 or 9 years. That's with his only improvement being adding some muscle and weight. If he can perfect his jumper (it shows plenty of potential), improve on his post skills, and get coached up on handling double teams he will be a high efficiency, prototypical, two-way C with no major flaws.

[fishercob]

At this point, I'd be happy with what I currently believe to be the most likely scenario:

1) Porter at 3
2) Someone from Muscala, Murphy, etc pool at 37
3) Some high-beta guy that we can keep overseas or on the DLeague at 54
4) Re-signing Webster for Green/Rush money
5) Rolling into the deadline with the expiring contracts/cap space of Ariza and Okafor. Ariza would be gone for sure; okafor could potentially stay on a significantly reduced contract or could be used as a means to acquire more talent

Wall/Beal/Nene/Okafor/Webster/Ariza/Porter as a top 7 and then filling in after that.

I don't think resigning Webster is really an option unless Ariza is off the roster or a deal is already in place. All three (Porter included) are ideally SFs. There are bigger needs upfront & at guard that could be addressed with the MLE.

Would Ariza be more likely to exercise his PO knowing he's going to get very little playing time? He's going to be playing for a contract in '14 when lots of teams are going to try to stack their rosters. If he's not going to get an opportunity to showcase himself here is the one year contract really worth more than a potential MLE from another team for him in '14?

I'm trying to rationalize a way he realizes he isn't "really wanted" here so he should explore other prospects.

The sequencing is such that this stuff will all play out on it's on.

The draft is 6/27

Ariza has to make his decision to opt out by 6/30

Free agency negotiations open on 7/1 -- contracts can't actually be signed until 7/10

I think the most likely scenario is that Ariza opts in and then asks for a trade. The front office is probably talking to his agent saying "if he wants out, tell him to opt out. If he opts in we expect him to be here and to be on board."

It seems unlikely that Ariza gets traded on draft night, as the acquiring team would be risking that he'd opt out (even though he's unlikely to walk away from that kind of dough).

One potential option could be Cleveland. They could take him into pure cap space in exchange for a high second round pick. It doesn't actually help this year that much from a cap perspective, but those high seconds are valuable -- we could either use it or combine it with 37 to move back up into the first.

Cavs need defense, have a gaping hole at SF, and need three-point shooting. Ariza could be a nice fit if their goal is to take a step in the short term.

[sfam]

At this point, I'd be happy with what I currently believe to be the most likely scenario:

1) Porter at 3
2) Someone from Muscala, Murphy, etc pool at 37
3) Some high-beta guy that we can keep overseas or on the DLeague at 54
4) Re-signing Webster for Green/Rush money
5) Rolling into the deadline with the expiring contracts/cap space of Ariza and Okafor. Ariza would be gone for sure; okafor could potentially stay on a significantly reduced contract or could be used as a means to acquire more talent

Wall/Beal/Nene/Okafor/Webster/Ariza/Porter as a top 7 and then filling in after that.

You don't think its more likely that we package the 38 and 54 to move up?

[Dark Faze]

This stat geek likes Porter much more than Bennett. He ranks Porter as a very likely to be an all-star caliber player, with Bennett being a hit or miss prospect. Application of his system to the last 3 draft classes have been pretty accurate.

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

[sfam]

Athletic like this?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLlQpMpgB14 I

No, like Zeller or Noel. The dude looks like he's in slow motion.

Have you seen Zeller? Even his highlight videos are boring. ooo a box out, ooo a rebound. ooo a layup. Yes, he moves very well but he also has no bulk, a poor frame to add any, the length of a SF and does not utilize that vertical in games.

Zeller to me looks like a high quality big at the PF position. He is uber athletic, and yeah, seems to have some pretty good moves, even if they don't make a Mcgee ESPN highlight reel. I would guess he has a better career than Len and would take Zeller over Len every time. He can contribute right away and will continue to do so long term. Additionally, Len's ankles scare me.

[Dat2U]

This stat geek likes Porter much more than Bennett. He ranks Porter as a very likely to be an all-star caliber player, with Bennett being a hit or miss prospect. Application of his system to the last 3 draft classes have been pretty accurate.

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Wow, looking at his model, Noel & Porter are studs. Interesting stuff.

[sfam]

sfam

You ask if Randy has equal voice in the process.

I don't believe I said he did. I said he would have a voice and I don't think that is a stretch. I would imagine that is true of most teams. What I was (speculating) was that all things being equal, I think Randy will have more of a voice this year.

Also, Randy is commenting on these players like he has a voice. But he does say, now that what I want, the front office might see if differently.

What I said was, with EG in his last year and EG being the politician he is (9 lives Ernie), all things being equal, I think he would want this pick to be a consensus pick. He would want Randy's buy in and he would want Ted to know he has Randy's buy in. I would expect he also wants Ted to know Don is onboard.

I see it as a process they will go through. I expect Don Newman to be involved as well.

What we had was a Randy interview. I think we can extract some information from that. I expect we can get much less from an EG interview because EG usually reveals anything when he talks. Randy is different. They are two completely different kinds of people.

Do that clear up what I was saying ?

I don't really feel like discussing this much further. I certainly respect you as a poster and have always liked reading your opinions. I just felt your assessment of both the interview and method of choosing a pick was pretty far out there and still do. This doesn't mean I intend anything personal about it then or now - I was just responding to the thoughts expressed. Bottom line, if EG thinks Bennett is the right choice, or Len or Porter, or more likely Noel if he falls and Wittman flat out disagrees based on Noel not being able to contribute this year, I don't see EG modifying his choice to please Wittman or working long and hard to build consensus. I fully admit I could be wrong about this though.

[hands11]

No, like Zeller or Noel. The dude looks like he's in slow motion.

Have you seen Zeller? Even his highlight videos are boring. ooo a box out, ooo a rebound. ooo a layup. Yes, he moves very well but he also has no bulk, a poor frame to add any, the length of a SF and does not utilize that vertical in games.

Zeller to me looks like a high quality big at the PF position. He is uber athletic, and yeah, seems to have some pretty good moves, even if they don't make a Mcgee ESPN highlight reel. I would guess he has a better career than Len and would take Zeller over Len every time. He can contribute right away and will continue to do so long term. Additionally, Len's ankles scare me.

I think that could be true. I see Zeller could be productive. I was to harsh on him before. Not sure if he is what I want at starting PF but he should adjust to the NBA. So much of that to me will have to do with his outside shooting which while a small sample looks ok.

I could see Len being a solid center. Not a stud star but I don't expect that from him nor do I think the Wizards need that from a center. They have Wall and Beal.

[nate33]

Thats just the nature of this draft at the top.

What's funny was on lottery night I was out with a friend and they got into the Wizards range and their name didn't come up and I was like sweet. They then got past 8, sweet. 7 - awesome. 6 - I was freaking. 5 - owwww.

Then I started hoping their name would come up. By the time they got to 3 I was praying they didn't go higher.
This is not the draft to have the #1 unless you want to trade it. The #1 always has value but for me, I would have been happy if they landed at 5.

The moment it was revealed that the Wizards wouldn't pick 8th, it became a sure thing that they were in the top 3.

[nate33]

This stat geek likes Porter much more than Bennett. He ranks Porter as a very likely to be an all-star caliber player, with Bennett being a hit or miss prospect. Application of his system to the last 3 draft classes have been pretty accurate.

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Wow, looking at his model, Noel & Porter are studs. Interesting stuff.

Yeah. It's making me reconsider my preference for Bennett.

It's worth mentioning that he presumably developed this model by backtesting it over the last couple of drafts. As a result, it's going to show pretty good results retroactively, but it doesn't necessarily mean it'll be that predictive going forward. I wonder how many drafts he has backtested his model on. If it's just the 3 he posted, then it gives me much less confidence in his model. If his model holds up for the last 10 drafts or so, then it would be pretty significant.

[thinker07]

Obviously Porter looks like a very safe pick. IF Bennett could be coached up in a lot of ways, though, he could be just the dynamic bigman scorer the Wiz have lacked for a while. I think that most people might choose a fully developed Bennett over a fully developed Porter. The thing that I wonder is whether Bennett is a low effort, low BBIQ guy OR has he just never gotten good coaching?

The BB scene is Canada is a not as full of good coaching and good competition as in the US. So who knows how much good coaching Bennett got growing up. The Henderson School in Nevada (where he graduated HS) - I'm pretty sure that's not the BB factory like Findlay Prep. AAU teams are usually lacking good coaching on fundamentals and defense. AND I have had a NCCA Div I associate head coach tell me that UNLV is run like an AAU team. So MAYBE, Bennett would develop significantly with disciplined solid coaching.

Maybe not enough for me to pick Bennett over Porter. But maybe enough to give me some hope if the Wiz end up picking Bennett.

[Deivy202]

Im honestly leaning towards trading down we need really good depth and I think can get Muhummad and maybe another Big man who can start in the future or a better back up SG.

[Wizardspride]

You guys are way off on Len. Somehow people are confusing having untapped potential with being a project.

Len is an elite defender, a good rebounder, and a good finisher. His floor is defensive, backup/part-time C who will play in the league for 8 or 9 years. That's with his only improvement being adding some muscle and weight. If he can perfect his jumper (it shows plenty of potential), improve on his post skills, and get coached up on handling double teams he will be a high efficiency, prototypical, two-way C with no major flaws.

I echo these sentiments.....

[sfam]

Obviously Porter looks like a very safe pick. IF Bennett could be coached up in a lot of ways, though, he could be just the dynamic bigman scorer the Wiz have lacked for a while. I think that most people might choose a fully developed Bennett over a fully developed Porter. The thing that I wonder is whether Bennett is a low effort, low BBIQ guy OR has he just never gotten good coaching?

The BB scene is Canada is a not as full of good coaching and good competition as in the US. So who knows how much good coaching Bennett got growing up. The Henderson School in Nevada (where he graduated HS) - I'm pretty sure that's not the BB factory like Findlay Prep. AAU teams are usually lacking good coaching on fundamentals and defense. AND I have had a NCCA Div I associate head coach tell me that UNLV is run like an AAU team. So MAYBE, Bennett would develop significantly with disciplined solid coaching.

Maybe not enough for me to pick Bennett over Porter. But maybe enough to give me some hope if the Wiz end up picking Bennett.

Bennett is definitely a riskier pick. I only gravitate to him over Porter, who I like a lot, because if we choose Porter, we are almost acknowledging we need to pick up a star somewhere else. He'll solidify our place in the playoffs for the next while, but I don't see Porter bringing us to conference championships. Bennett with his upside might. I have my doubts about Noel, but I totally get that he too could get us there with elite D.

For me, I would just prefer to swing for the fences and fall short, than get a solid 2 base hit, because we probably aren't going to be in this position again for a long while.

[sfam]

awesome stuff Nate and very intriguing

Wow, looking at his model, Noel & Porter are studs. Interesting stuff.

Yeah. It's making me reconsider my preference for Bennett.

It's worth mentioning that he presumably developed this model by backtesting it over the last couple of drafts. As a result, it's going to show pretty good results retroactively, but it doesn't necessarily mean it'll be that predictive going forward. I wonder how many drafts he has backtested his model on. If it's just the 3 he posted, then it gives me much less confidence in his model. If his model holds up for the last 10 drafts or so, then it would be pretty significant.

I only saw the 3 year thing, and it read like he modified his approach based on getting good results for the last three years. It might be accurate, but I don't have lots of confidence in it yet. I too would like to know what his stats showed prior to the last 3 years.

[sfam]

Im honestly leaning towards trading down we need really good depth and I think can get Muhummad and maybe another Big man who can start in the future or a better back up SG.

The question though is how far do you go? How much drop off do you see among the picks? I sort of see the top 5 or 6 being better than the rest, and then perhaps another chunk of 4 or 5. After that you're in the Adams territory where you are taking a chance on talent that may or may not break.

I would prefer we come out of this with a chance at something real. Playing it safe and picking Porter and whomever we can get at the top of the second round would be a pretty good day. So would getting Noel or Bennett. If we trade down, I wouldn't want to leave that second tier of players, meaning we could get a quality vet (or later 1st rounder), plus a CJM, for instance. If we go back further, I think we are missing out.