Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[popper]

I think it goes Porter, Mac and then we decide to draft or trade Noel. Like Hands has mentioned before, Noel will make virtually no contribution next year.

[The Consiglieri]

I don't care about next year. I care about the next ten years combined. When you're making draft decisions based on the 1 season in front of you, you've already lost.

[truwizfan4evr]

I think it goes Porter, Mac and then we decide to draft or trade Noel. Like Hands has mentioned before, Noel will make virtually no contribution next year.

Maybe not but he will in the future.

[truwizfan4evr]

I don't care about next year. I care about the next ten years combined. When you're making draft decisions based on the 1 season in front of you, you've already lost.

I agree 100%

[thricethefun]

DraftExpress has Alex Len as the #1 prospect in the draft and I tend to agree. I don't understand the Porter love, as his upside is not nearly as high as Len's and Len would give us a serviceable backup center from day 1 (trade seraphin). I doubt Ernie will be crafty enough to find a partner to trade down for Len so we should just take him where we are at 3.

[popper]

I don't care about next year. I care about the next ten years combined. When you're making draft decisions based on the 1 season in front of you, you've already lost.

I wasn't advocating for or against a Noel selection but was just laying out what I think the options will be with the third selection.

[gambitx777]

I don't see why not, Hes a local product and hes got skills. I would take him and figure it out later, because he has trade value not matter what.

But isn't that what Minny did with DWill? They already had Love, but took him anyway and tried to figure it out. It hasn't worked and they aren't going to get "#2 overall pick" value back for him if they trade him now. So I'm not sure we can assume that the trade value will always be there.

If the Wolves could go back in time and instead get McGee+6 from the Wizards, would they? Even if they had to kick in something else of value from their end to get the deal to go through? I think they would. McGee and and a guy like Kawhi Leonard would look a lot better on their roster than DWill does right now (and I'm not even a McGee fan LOL). I'm not saying they'd be contenders, but it's more than they'll get for DWill in any trade going forward.

IMO this team has enough clear needs that going BPA at a position we've already got filled and hoping we figure it out isn't the way to go. If we were a team with 5 legit starters and we just lucked into a top pick because of injuries, sure I'd take BPA to be our 6th man. But this team still needs as many as 3 longterm solutions in the starting lineup, so I'd prefer to explore ways to leverage the pick to get one of those spots filled.

But is oladipo worthy of a 3ed over all pick? I think he is. he brings a lot of skill and assets to the game when he is on the court. I don't think we can compare Williams to opladipo, they are jut absolutely different players. Oladipo is not a tweener stretch 4, Oladipo has the skills and physical tools to play his position.
If noel and Porter are gone we have to either trade down or make peace with taking some one.
Len would be an option there and i do like him, I was super high on him a few months ago, my opinion of him fell a bi but i still think he is probably better than Noel.

I would consider trading back, as long as we get a pick in return.

if we move back i want to target Len or Olynyk.

[Wizardspride]

DraftExpress has Alex Len as the #1 prospect in the draft and I tend to agree. I don't understand the Porter love, as his upside is not nearly as high as Len's and Len would give us a serviceable backup center from day 1 (trade seraphin). I doubt Ernie will be crafty enough to find a partner to trade down for Len so we should just take him where we are at 3.

I think Porter's upside is bigger than you do but essentially I agree with your post.

I think Len (assuming he's there) would be the best possible pick for the short and long term.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

FWIW, Tony Massenburg was on Doc Walker's show on 980 and said he preferred Bennett over Porter, because Bennett can play inside, while Porter being a SF would bring skills similar to what they already have in Beal and Wall.

He said something about good teams usually have a good interior player, with 1 or 2 perimeter oriented guys to compliment each other, and he used San Antonio as an example.

[sfam]

Anyway, as I posted the other day, I think these are the likeliest scenario's:

1. Simply picking Porter-62.5%
2. Picking Bennett w/Porter and Noel off the board before our slot: 17.5%
3. Picking Noel when he slips to #3: 7.5%
4. Picking Len at #3 when Noel and Porter, or Porter and Bennett go in first two picks: 7.5%
5. Trade down for Len or Bennett with Porter and Noel off the board: 5%

The one I would add is the chance Bennett is chosen even though Porter is still on the board. Chad Ford seems to think its a tossup between those two right now.

[sfam]

FWIW, Tony Massenburg was on Doc Walker's show on 980 and said he preferred Bennett over Porter, because Bennett can play inside, while Porter being a SF would bring skills similar to what they already have in Beal and Wall.

He said something about good teams usually have a good interior player, with 1 or 2 perimeter oriented guys to compliment each other, and he used San Antonio as an example.

Two thumbs up for Tony Massenburg.

[thinker07]

And I don't believe they're serious about Bennett.

I'm curious why you think this. All the indications from the people in the media that seem pretty reliable are that the Wiz are locked on Porter and Bennett (and maybe Len). Do you think this is just an Ernie bluff?

[Illuminaire]

Re: the Williams/Love thing, I don't think that's actually a terribly good counter-example. Love has been injured for significant stretches since Williams was drafted. Williams has gotten time to play, and he's started almost half the games he's been available for. He just... wasn't very good.

If Williams had ended up being an impact player, Minnesota absolutely would have benefited from taking the BPA. They'd be able to trade either Love or Williams at high value. Their issue wasn't that both guys played the same position, it was that Williams wasn't actually as good as they hoped.

[payitforward]

I don't care about next year. I care about the next ten years combined. When you're making draft decisions based on the 1 season in front of you, you've already lost.

What he said!

[The Consiglieri]

I don't care about next year. I care about the next ten years combined. When you're making draft decisions based on the 1 season in front of you, you've already lost.

I wasn't advocating for or against a Noel selection but was just laying out what I think the options will be with the third selection.

No problem at all. It's hard to read for tone in posts, especially w/o smilies, and w/my keyboard on he fritz, I just try to make it simple, and in the case of the draft, that's my view.

[TGW]

FWIW, Tony Massenburg was on Doc Walker's show on 980 and said he preferred Bennett over Porter, because Bennett can play inside, while Porter being a SF would bring skills similar to what they already have in Beal and Wall.

He said something about good teams usually have a good interior player, with 1 or 2 perimeter oriented guys to compliment each other, and he used San Antonio as an example.

I don't agree with that assessment...if San Antonio were picking at our spot, they would take Porter, no ifs and or buts about it. Porter is a high IQ, team-oriented player who would fit into their system. Bennett probably would not.

[The Consiglieri]

Anyway, as I posted the other day, I think these are the likeliest scenario's:

1. Simply picking Porter-62.5%
2. Picking Bennett w/Porter and Noel off the board before our slot: 17.5%
3. Picking Noel when he slips to #3: 7.5%
4. Picking Len at #3 when Noel and Porter, or Porter and Bennett go in first two picks: 7.5%
5. Trade down for Len or Bennett with Porter and Noel off the board: 5%

The one I would add is the chance Bennett is chosen even though Porter is still on the board. Chad Ford seems to think its a tossup between those two right now.

Where's the homer facepalm smilie? I can't believe I didn't post that . Okay, take 2:

1. Simply picking Porter over Bennett: 40%
2. Simply picking Bennett over Porter: 32.5%
3. Picking Bennett with Porter/Noel off the board: 12.5%
4. Picking Noel when he inexplicably slipped to 3: 7.5%
5. Picking Len w/Porter or Bennett still available: 5%
6. Trade down for Len: 2.5%

Wow, that's a bit of a reshuffle, a necessary one though. My real dark horse is that Len is much higher on our board than any of us think. Perhaps Oladipo could be that to, but w/o the smoke, I tend to doubt it.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Anyway, as I posted the other day, I think these are the likeliest scenario's:

1. Simply picking Porter-62.5%
2. Picking Bennett w/Porter and Noel off the board before our slot: 17.5%
3. Picking Noel when he slips to #3: 7.5%
4. Picking Len at #3 when Noel and Porter, or Porter and Bennett go in first two picks: 7.5%
5. Trade down for Len or Bennett with Porter and Noel off the board: 5%

The one I would add is the chance Bennett is chosen even though Porter is still on the board. Chad Ford seems to think its a tossup between those two right now.

Where's the homer facepalm smilie? I can't believe I didn't post that . Okay, take 2:

1. Simply picking Porter over Bennett: 40%
2. Simply picking Bennett over Porter: 32.5%
3. Picking Bennett with Porter/Noel off the board: 12.5%
4. Picking Noel when he inexplicably slipped to 3: 7.5%
5. Picking Len w/Porter or Bennett still available: 5%
6. Trade down for Len: 2.5%

Wow, that's a bit of a reshuffle, a necessary one though. My real dark horse is that Len is much higher on our board than any of us think. Perhaps Oladipo could be that to, but w/o the smoke, I tend to doubt it.

Right. It would not surprise me if Ernie takes Len at 3, regardless of who else is still there.

[hands11]

^ If McLemore falls to #3 I'd rather make a trade than try to make a lineup with two 6'4 wing players work. If he truly is regarded as the best perimeter player in this draft, then there's sure to be a ton of interest and we could potentially get a lot in return.

What if you can't get a decent trade for him though? Do you take him then? If you took him, what do you do next?

I think you just have him come off the bench as a super sub for 30 minutes a game. You can find the minutes there if Beal can play some PG. Beal gets hurt too, you'll probably have chances to start him. If you've got both Beal and McLemore, you know you can have a guy that will make his open shots on the court with Wall at all times.

Lots of ways to play it.

I posted this same argument before. And before we got the 3rd, it was I posted using CJM.

They just need to keep evaluating. Got another few weeks before they need to know.

[hands11]

I don't see why not, Hes a local product and hes got skills. I would take him and figure it out later, because he has trade value not matter what.

But isn't that what Minny did with DWill? They already had Love, but took him anyway and tried to figure it out. It hasn't worked and they aren't going to get "#2 overall pick" value back for him if they trade him now. So I'm not sure we can assume that the trade value will always be there.

If the Wolves could go back in time and instead get McGee+6 from the Wizards, would they? Even if they had to kick in something else of value from their end to get the deal to go through? I think they would. McGee and and a guy like Kawhi Leonard would look a lot better on their roster than DWill does right now (and I'm not even a McGee fan LOL). I'm not saying they'd be contenders, but it's more than they'll get for DWill in any trade going forward.

IMO this team has enough clear needs that going BPA at a position we've already got filled and hoping we figure it out isn't the way to go. If we were a team with 5 legit starters and we just lucked into a top pick because of injuries, sure I'd take BPA to be our 6th man. But this team still needs as many as 3 longterm solutions in the starting lineup, so I'd prefer to explore ways to leverage the pick to get one of those spots filled.

DWIll is a tweaner. McLemore is a pure SG. Its very different. McLemore has a know pure skill that will translate.