Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[closg00]

Ford reporting that Zeller will work-out for Orlando,trade-down, or possible #2 pick?

[Dr Positivity]

Is anyone ready to make the case that Len is THAT overwhelming a physical specimen? And, if the answer is "yes" -- why did he shoot so poorly from 2pt range? Why didn't he get more rebounds and block more shots? Why were his steal numbers so low?

I'm in the camp that believes Len isn't an elite physical specimen. I don't think he's more athletic than Andrew Bogut, Tiago Splitter, or Marcin Gortat, all of whom are good athletes, but not dominant ones. Len does have elite length and the frame to get bigger.

With Len I'm of the mind that

- His defensive potential is huge because of both his length and his excellent, smooth feel. Len is not known as a defensive player now, but I believe he has the natural instincts to be one. In addition to the blocking that could make him a complete defender years down the road. I think people usually get too caught up in how good a player is defensively in college, as opposed to whether they have the tools to be a great defender by the middle of their NBA career. When a player has great size/length, mobility for his position and a strong instinctive feel for the court and they don't have a motor problem, I'm calling them a high upside defensive prospect

- The more I look at him the more he looks overrated offensively. Len has the reputation of a post scorer and midrange shooter but in reality he's kind of neither atm. The gap between him and Withey and Dieng in offensive skillset is very overstated right now. He does seem to have good hands and touch. It wouldn't surprise me if a guy like Splitter ends up the comparison for Len. Big C, instinctive, good finisher at the rim, but without the offensive versatility. OTOH maybe I'm wrong and he really does have that go-to post scorer + midrange jumpshot upside offensively, which would make his upside enormous

[DCsOwn]

Chad Ford

"Len, who is on crutches due to a stress fracture in his left ankle, isn't able to work out either. But that hasn't stopped his rise on our Big Board. Increasingly, teams are looking to him as a potentially safer alternative to Noel. While he's likely to miss the next four to five months as he rehabs his ankle, teams feel like he's got better size, is more polished offensively and could have a bigger upside than Noel. As we've previously reported, he's seriously in the mix with the Cavs for the No. 1 pick, with some sources indicating the Cavs could be moving his direction (I'm told Noel, Porter and Oladipo are the others). The Bobcats are also very high on Len, as are the Suns and Pelicans."

Very thankful not to see our name on that list.

This times a hundred thousand.

[Rafael122]

So what happens if Noel AND Porter are there at 3? Do you trade back 1 spot with the Bobcats, maybe get rid of Vesely in the process?

That's a scenario I didn't think about. I assumed the Cavs were all in on Noel, but if they took Len? That shakes up everything.

[GhostsOfGil]

Gotta go with Noel. I just don't see how you can pass on someone with his upside... Even if it is on only one side of the court.

[truwizfan4evr]

Gotta go with Noel. I just don't see how you can pass on someone with his upside... Even if it is on only one side of the court.

I hope he does well in his interview with wizards.

[Dr Positivity]

What about Grant Hill as a comparison for Porter?

As someone eluded to, Porter has more similarity with Phoenix Grant Hill. I don't see Porter as a slashing threat at the next level, he has neither the explosiveness or the ballhandling. He should be able to play in the post and cut off the ball, but that only gets a player so far offensively, just ask Landry Fields. What he really needs is 3 point range and the ability to be that floor spacer. With that added to his defensive contribution he could be a really valuable glue guy. I think Porter is a lot riskier than his reputation because if he doesn't hit 3s in the NBA I have a hard time seeing him do enough offensively to make it as a starter, a starting wing needs something to lean on offensively, whether it's shooting and spacing the floor or having the ability to drive to the basket, without either they'll get lost

[nate33]

Really interesting blog piece on some statistical draft outliers.

Victor Oladipo and Nerlens Noel may be unicorns. I’ve been playing around with the season finder on sports-reference.com, after a long comments section discussion over their merits. They both had seasons last year that have never been equaled, at least not since 1997.

First, Victor is the only player of significant minutes to average 59% from the field (actually .599), 44% from three, and 2 steals and 2 assists per game. This doesn’t even take into account the .6 blocks and the 6+ rebounds per game. At 28 minutes a game, that’s pretty impressive, and unbelievably unique. He’s a two way player like no other, at least in post-1997 college basketball history. Lest you think I’m completely in the tank for Oladipo (I am), let’s look at Nerlens Noel.

Noel is the only player since 1997 to average over 50% from the field (actually .590), 4 blocks per game, 2 steals per game, and 9 rebounds. Actually the steals and blocks by themselves are singularities. The only people to come close to this were all seniors from middling programs. UMass’s Tony Gaffney (2009), came close with 3.8 blocks. Anthony Davis is the only player with over 4 blocks per game who gets close to the steals number, and that is at 1.3 per game, well below Noel’s 2.1.

To be fair, Noel missed much of the most difficult portion of the schedule due to injury. It's possible that his blocks and steals per game may have tailed off a bit. His steals rate definitely tailed off once he got into the SEC schedule. Over his last 8 games, he never posted more than 1 steal per game. His shot blocking was ridiculous though. He had a 6-game stretch in late January when he blocked 7, 6, 7, 8, 6, and 12 shots respectively.

[The Consiglieri]

Wow. So a 7 footer who converts 38% of his post ups and 36% of his jumpers, as well as showing a lack of effort/focus on both ends (not to mention having a foot injury) is the top prospect?

Not exactly an endorsement of this draft.

Nope, but that's not why he's #1 obviously. Teams are looking at Len, and evaluating him based on what they think they can make of him, not on what Maryland made of him. I've been listening/reading to every kernel of anything I can come across, and one thing repeatedly references has been that if Len hadn't gotten injured, and could have worked out, many scouts/GM's have said he had a real strong way of working himself up to #1. Cleveland having him in their top 3 just confirms it. I think he's probably somewhere between 1 and 4 on our board. I'm just not sure where.

That's what his agent said. Since then, people have run with that quote. I don't believe it in the slightest, and YODA is very wise to not factor that in.

Ford wasn't quoting his agent when he referenced that, though I imagine his agent is certainly willing to spread ideas like that.

[nate33]

So what happens if Noel AND Porter are there at 3? Do you trade back 1 spot with the Bobcats, maybe get rid of Vesely in the process?

That's a scenario I didn't think about. I assumed the Cavs were all in on Noel, but if they took Len? That shakes up everything.

Bobcats wouldn't trade up. They know we like Porter and Noel and they're not particularly interested in either. Porter is redundant with MKG and Noel would only compound their existing difficulties in scoring. They'd be looking at Oladipo or Bennett (assuming Len and McLemore went 1-2 in your example).

In your scenario, we should take Noel and never look back.

[gambitx777]

To be fair, Noel missed much of the most difficult portion of the schedule due to injury. It's possible that his blocks and steals per game may have tailed off a bit. His steals rate definitely tailed off once he got into the SEC schedule. Over his last 8 games, he never posted more than 1 steal per game. His shot blocking was ridiculous though. He had a 6-game stretch in late January when he blocked 7, 6, 7, 8, 6, and 12 shots respectively.

Hasheem Thabeet blocked like a mad man too, im not saying Noel will end up like Thabeet, they are different players, but it's always possible.

Noel scares me, his legs scare me, his offence scares me, and taking him at 3 with those 2 issues scares me. I would still probably take a flyer on Len over Noel. But if both porter and Len are gone, i would consider Oladipo and Bennett over Noel .

[Dr Positivity]

When reading the rumors about Cavs souring on Noel 1st, etc., remember that they have a history of smokescreen. All of June last year I remember "sources" kept saying the Cavs were Gatsby for Daisy over Harrison Barnes and pairing him with future BFF Kyrie and that it was a done deal he'd go 4th. Really if one accepted that the Cavs are the most advanced metrics drafting team in the league, judging by how all stat guys hated Barnes last year, it was obvious that was BS. I would personally bet Barnes wasn't even in their top 20. The Thompson pick was also kept totally under wraps until the draft I believe. I think the Cavs taking Porter over Noel is a possibility, but I wouldn't count on sources getting any word of it early, unless it's like the night before the draft. The stuff about the Cavs considering Len just screams BS like that Barnes leak last year though. Len isn't the guy the most advanced metrics drafting team in the league will take 1st. The metrics guys love love love Noel and Porter 1a and 1b, followed by Burke (not in play for CLE) and Oladipo (I guess not impossible, but he's a worse fit for their lineup than Noel and Porter, in addition to being a poor man's advanced metrics version of him). With the Cavs history of advanced metrics and Noel and Porter dominating them, I'd say the chances of the Cavs taking anyone else if they keep the pick is slim. Even if they pass on Noel due to health, position or readiness reasons, they just take Porter who fills all those checkmarks. I think Len would've made a huge run at the 1st pick and replacing Noel if any other team but Cleveland had it, despite his surgery. He has the type of size/length and skills that always go high. But CLE is the weird cat of the draft and are going to go their own way, which happens to be advanced metrics obsessed

[fishercob]

Draft hats!

[hands11]

Problem is, on average -- at least in YODA -- he looked like a late 1st/early 2nd. I don't see any justification for making him the top prospect in this year's draft. I might pick him a little earlier than where he lands in YODA because of his size and mobility, but no way I'd take him #1 #1. Or at 3. Maybe as early as 15, in a trade-down scenario.

I think he's rated too low then. The UMD guards were nothing short of horrible, arguably the worst backcourt in ACC. Had he been in a different situation his stats would have been better. He's got some unique athletic traits that would put him in an elite category in terms of overall physical profile. His key weakenesses appear to be related to his strength which with his frame, should come in time. The injury question is the only one I can't be sure of so I gotta ding him a bit for that. I think he's a good choice if you trade down to 6 or later.

If those observed athletic traits are valid, then he'll be a miss in YODA. I don't use athleticism scores from scouting reports or watching the games -- I use the data from the combine. Since he wasn't even measured...he gets no bonus for size and/or athleticism. I'm left with his stats, and his stats aren't very good.

How about plugging in a WAG

[hands11]

[b]4.Have a great existing infrastructure in the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili trio that forces those picks to fit into a

Easier said than done.

But they did make good progress toward doing that last year. Clearly a lot better then they had. And I think it really helped Wall and Beal. The two players that matter most.

They are getting there. The Ves draft was a blown draft but they have landed two really good players who will be here a long time. No, they don't have Duncan. But neither do any of the other teams. But they do have Wall and Beal. And they do have some quality vets in Webster, Trevor A, Nene and Okafor.

People seem to forget they blow it up. They burned the house to the ground. That doesn't get rebuilt over night.

Its not every day a franchise has their franchise player bring guns into the locker room and their own pass away. It takes a few years to rebuild from that. But all these years later, look at Indy.

This team needs a future young center. Once they get that lined up and we see that players is legit for the future, things will look a lot different.

[nate33]

When reading the rumors about Cavs souring on Noel 1st, etc., remember that they have a history of smokescreen. All of June last year I remember "sources" kept saying the Cavs were Gatsby for Daisy over Harrison Barnes and pairing him with future BFF Kyrie and that it was a done deal he'd go 4th. Really if one accepted that the Cavs are the most advanced metrics drafting team in the league, judging by how all stat guys hated Barnes last year, it was obvious that was BS. I would personally bet Barnes wasn't even in their top 20. The Thompson pick was also kept totally under wraps until the draft I believe. I think the Cavs taking Porter over Noel is a possibility, but I wouldn't count on sources getting any word of it early, unless it's like the night before the draft. The stuff about the Cavs considering Len just screams BS like that Barnes leak last year though. Len isn't the guy the most advanced metrics drafting team in the league will take 1st. The metrics guys love love love Noel and Porter 1a and 1b, followed by Burke (not in play for CLE) and Oladipo (I guess not impossible, but he's a worse fit for their lineup than Noel and Porter, in addition to being a poor man's advanced metrics version of him). With the Cavs history of advanced metrics and Noel and Porter dominating them, I'd say the chances of the Cavs taking anyone else if they keep the pick is slim. Even if they pass on Noel due to health, position or readiness reasons, they just take Porter who fills all those checkmarks. I think Len would've made a huge run at the 1st pick and replacing Noel if any other team but Cleveland had it, despite his surgery. He has the type of size/length and skills that always go high. But CLE is the weird cat of the draft and are going to go their own way, which happens to be advanced metrics obsessed

Great post, Dr. Positivity. I think you are 100% correct.

[TGW]

Draft hats!





Hmmmm, images are embedding.

http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/20 ... -photos/#5

I don't normally like any merchandise that's Wizards related, but that's a nice hat. I might cop me one of those.

[hands11]

... or we could be patient and draft a big man with our 1st round pick next year.

Larry Sanders: 15th overall
Nikola Vucevic: 16th overall
Kenneth Faried: 22nd overall
Roy Hibbert: 17th overall
Serge Ibaka: 24th overall
Nikola Pekovic: 31st overall

Patience is a virtue. The sky is not falling.

Exactly.

Que the music for the "we have been patient enough crowd"

[closg00]

... or we could be patient and draft a big man with our 1st round pick next year.

Larry Sanders: 15th overall
Nikola Vucevic: 16th overall
Kenneth Faried: 22nd overall
Roy Hibbert: 17th overall
Serge Ibaka: 24th overall
Nikola Pekovic: 31st overall

Patience is a virtue. The sky is not falling.

Exactly.

Que the music for the "we have been patient enough crowd"

I guess it depends on if you like yearly trips to the lottery (6-straight) or not. 2nd, you have to hope that Ernie Grunfeld (Hello Jan Vesely) is not making the selections.

[deneem4]

If bennet and porter became the player yall want them to be...who would you all compare them too....
2 examples for each player