Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[FreeBalling]

I've posted many times the Wizards drafted a guy who played SF in Europe and they brought him over here and asked him to change. I posted below on 12/1/12...

Yeah, you nailed it. What if instead of asking him to go full "neck fat" Blatche on the weight gain and screwing up his shot, they instead had Vesely work on his handle? I don't know that he would have played well enough to justify the pick, but he sure as heck wouldn't have been the putrid mess we saw this past year.

That has to be tough for Vesely, changing your shot three times. I think Arnold Palmer said it best, " Swing your swing" and he had coaching as well and won a few Majors. His swing is not graceful.


Just win baby!

[nate33]

Literally the only possible way for him to ever be a contributor in the NBA is if he get's substantially stronger and models his game after Tiago Splitter.

...which is exactly what management is trying to get him to do.

Management is right. Vesely is wrong. Quit whining, get your ass in the gym, follow your nutrition program and improve your body. Walk up to the squat rack, get under the damn bar and make it happen!

[sfam]

Reading the comments Prada posted, I have a few thoughts:

Re: "Bulking up" -- Who knows what the Wizards actually told him to do. I'm really not a front office defender, but having talked with these guys in the past, I do find it hard to believe they would have asked Vesely to gain weight. More likely, they would have asked him to get stronger. My guess is that 260 was a weight they figured he'd get to in time, IF he followed the strength and conditioning program and followed proper nutrition.

Re: Changing his shot -- it needed to be changed. The key with ANY skill is practice. I don't see any comments from Vesely about taking a thousand jumpers a day using the new form and still sucking. The essential ingredient in building a skill is repetition. That's perhaps even more important when rebuilding a skill or learning a new way to do something.

As for playing Vesely at SF -- nate and tontoz have it right. Vesely doesn't have the skills for it. A team with a prime Arenas, Butler and Jamison could get away with it because Arenas was an overwhelming offensive threat, Jamison was dangerous from everywhere, and Butler was a quality scoring option as well.

If Vesely wants to be an NBA player, he needs to put in some long, hard work somewhere -- on his body so he can play PF or on his game so he can play SF.

This is the real issue - Vesely doesn't seem to be putting in the time to take his athletic attributes into becoming a productive NBA player. He comes off as lazy, and even alluded to this in a few interviews last year. That said, based on these comments, Vesely seems to have seen the light. He realizes his chances to stay in the NBA are marginal now, and are based on his ability to put in the time and make the corrections.

To stay, he flat out needs a workable midrange shot. If Vesely can figure this out and get back some confidence, the rest can come. Until then though, he has limited value.

[GhostsOfGil]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

[Nivek]

There are a bunch of questions I would have loved to ask Vesely about those shot changes. When the coaches changed whatever they changed, did Vesely practice those changes? Did he follow the process where at first it feels awkward and he can't hit anything until he reached the point where the change became habit? What exactly did they change each time? Was he regressing back into old habits so that coaches were essentially correcting the same issues each time? Or was he getting into new bad habits?

From the golf world, many pros constantly tinker with their swings. Tiger Woods has famously gone through 2-3 major swing reconstructions. The key difference between Tiger rebuilding his swing and winning majors and Vesely making changes to his shooting stroke and getting worse is likely work. The Wizards coaching staff is more than competent to work with a guy on basic shooting mechanics. The most important ingredient in developing ANY skill is practice.

Just as an example, a kid I worked with on my defensive tracking project a few years back has been a stat goober for an NBA team the past few years. He decided that he wanted to go through the process of developing a skill so that he could understand it better. His skill -- shooting free throws lefty. He went from roughly 20% at the beginning to 75% in 6 weeks by spending an hour a day in purposeful, thoughtful practice. He's keeping at it -- wants to see if he can get to 90%. And this guy is not a 6-11 professional athlete.

[closg00]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

The problem is that JV's game is very very limited, he won't shoot and he has no dribbling skills. All he will do is dunk or pass the ball if given the opportunity, that simply won't cut-it in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

Great questions and comments in this thread. Hopefully, Wiz management is as thoughtful. My guess is that the Wiz tell him what to work on, but when he goes home and is away from a basketball environment, he loses the necessary focus, and there is no adequate monitoring system. Obviously, something has to change for him to become a good player. He likely needs to stay here with the coaches year round to effect that change. Seraphin seemed to reach that conclusion in his situation.

[Upper Decker]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

There was never a one month stretch where he averaged 10/10. During Vesely's peak as an NBA player he averaged 8.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG in 28 minutes in April 2012, when nearly every NBA team was in tank / coast mode. During the franchise altering 6 game win streak he had games of 6, 6, 7, 8, 11, and 16 (against Charlotte in a 30+ point blow out). Big freakin deal! He immediately followed that up with an extremely pedestrian summer league season, followed by a historically bad sophomore season. He has never even demonstrated the ability to be a productive player on a terrible team, let alone being a productive basketball player on a half-way decent team.

[Dat2U]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

Where??? On NBA2K??? You sure it wasn't a 2 game stretch???

[GhostsOfGil]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

There was never a one month stretch where he averaged 10/10. During Vesely's peak as an NBA player he averaged 8.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG in 28 minutes in April 2012, when nearly every NBA team was in tank / coast mode. During the franchise altering 6 game win streak he had games of 6, 6, 7, 8, 11, and 16 (against Charlotte in a 30+ point blow out). Big freakin deal! He immediately followed that up with an extremely pedestrian summer league season, followed by a historically bad sophomore season. He has never even demonstrated the ability to be a productive player on a terrible team, let alone being a productive basketball player on a half-way decent team.

We was averaging 10 points/9.5 rebounds per 36 in 29 games from March to April. Pump the brakes there. I'm not saying Vesley is an untouchable asset. I'm just saying he's at least shown the ability to be a serviceable player.

[Dat2U]

As much as I hated Vesley, I tend to agree with CCJ on this one. He has shown the ability to be a productive player... There was a 2 month stretch last year where he was averaging 10/10 with a PER of 15.

There was never a one month stretch where he averaged 10/10. During Vesely's peak as an NBA player he averaged 8.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG in 28 minutes in April 2012, when nearly every NBA team was in tank / coast mode. During the franchise altering 6 game win streak he had games of 6, 6, 7, 8, 11, and 16 (against Charlotte in a 30+ point blow out). Big freakin deal! He immediately followed that up with an extremely pedestrian summer league season, followed by a historically bad sophomore season. He has never even demonstrated the ability to be a productive player on a terrible team, let alone being a productive basketball player on a half-way decent team.

We was averaging 10 points/9.5 rebounds per 36 in 29 games from March to April. Pump the brakes there. I'm not saying Vesley is an untouchable asset. I'm just saying he's at least shown the ability to be a serviceable player.

Ah, good ol' per 36. Did he play 36 minutes in one single game during that span?

I take any numbers during that timeframe with a grain of salt. The quality of play really dipped during the 2nd half of that strike shortened season. Too many games into short a period of time. A lot of teams mailed it in and many non-NBA quality players got significant minutes during this stretch.

[Nivek]

Swiped from my own blog, here's what Vesely did by month in his rookie season:

Code: Select all

MONTH           GMS     MPG     PPA
Jan 2012        14      14.9    21
Feb 2012        14      14.9    8
Mar 2012        14      17.4    77
Apr 2012        15      27.9    142
2011-12 Season  57      18.9    70


PPA is my summary stat measure. I've probably tweaked it since I posted this, but it wouldn't change any of these numbers by more than a couple points. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. So, horrible start followed by major improvement. In April, he performed like a good NBA player.

Then this season -- in which his performance vacillated from horrific to "almost reaching replacement level" (January) and then back to horrific. He was one of the league's 5 least productive players last season (minimum 500 minutes).

When I did similarity scores for the "Ernie Kids", his comps weren't impressive:

1. Byron Houston
2. Corny Thompson
3. Jim Smith
4. Bill Curley
5. Jim Petersen
6. Petur Gudmundsson
7. Mike Peplowski
8. Clifford Rozier
9. Cedric Simmons
10. Hilton Armstrong

His rookie comps weren't actually a lot better. It included AC Green, but then a bunch of scrubs and stiffs.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

I'm not entirely sure if there's a website dedicated to this but I'm seeing snippets on Twitter about an interview with Jan Vesely. Here's the page: https://twitter.com/Luke_Mellow

Holy **** who is this guy? He sounds like he knows he's never going to contribute anything meaningful in the NBA, no confidence. I admire the kid for being so open, but there's no reason why he should be on this team this year, or even next (God forbid his option gets picked up).

Read all the tweets on that page. Holy ****, Jan has no business putting on a Wiz jersey . Fire Ernie now!!!

[GhostsOfGil]

Ah, good ol' per 36. Did he play 36 minutes in one single game during that span?

I take any numbers during that timeframe with a grain of salt. The quality of play really dipped during the 2nd half of that strike shortened season. Too many games into short a period of time. A lot of teams mailed it in and many non-NBA quality players got significant minutes during this stretch.

Jesus dat, you can disagree with me all you want but I remember watching a serviceable player during that 2 month span. At the time, everyone considered Vesley's play to be solid. All I said was that he at least has shown the ability to be a serviceable player.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Ah, good ol' per 36. Did he play 36 minutes in one single game during that span?

I take any numbers during that timeframe with a grain of salt. The quality of play really dipped during the 2nd half of that strike shortened season. Too many games into short a period of time. A lot of teams mailed it in and many non-NBA quality players got significant minutes during this stretch.

Jesus dat, you can disagree with me all you want but I remember watching a serviceable player during that 2 month span. At the time, everyone considered Vesley's play to be solid. All I said was that he at least has shown the ability to be a serviceable player.

I didn't see a serviceable player...I still don't know what all the hype is about that late season stretch. Jan played OK against tanking teams and backups. I guess we'll just forget what he did the months before that. Let's all be honest here, if Jan was a 2nd rd pick, he would've been cut after his first season...just like Mack was.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Oh dear God, not this again.

Vesely is being asked to play PF because HE LACKS THE SKILLS TO PLAY SMALL FORWARD!!! You can't play him there because it WON'T WORK. How many teams in this league can function offensively with a small forward who can't shoot or dribble? The answer is ZERO!!!

What kind of skills did Derrick McKey have? (Read style and career section of wiki)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derrick_McKey

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lse-1.html

Precedent: There have been near seven-foot SFs who did not have perimeter skills. Derrick McKey played on several playoff teams as a. 6' 10" wing defender. He passed very well and virtually never attempted a three. He was versatile enough to play PF or C, but SF was his best position.

In 2004-2005, the Wizards advanced to round two in the Eastern Conference Playoffs starting Arenas, Hughes, Jared Jeffries (6'11", 230 lbs -- around the same as Vesely), Jamison, and Haywood. Jeffries played next to a stretch four. The Wizards won in a non-traditional manner. Vesely can definitely be utilized similarly to Jeffries. It just takes an open-minded approach. EJ even played Jefffries at SG a time or two.

A lot of tall guys have played SF. These guys all could shoot: Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, Robert Horry, Walter McCarty, Toni Kukoc, Hedo Turkoglu, Steve Novak. I think Vesely can defend as well as any of them except young KG. I bet he rebounds and passe better than most or at least on par. Vesely is a player in the Noah mold who is not quite suited to play C full-time, but in spots can play SF, PF, and a transition-friendly C in open court game situations.

I believe Vesely can best be utilized like McKey and Jeffries.

As tontoz pointed out, McKey was a competent shooter. During his peak years, he averaged 16 points per game and shot 84% from the FT line. Vesely is not even in the same zip code as a basketball player. Comparing the two is absurd. You may as well be comparing Vesely to Glen Rice.

Jeffries is the best case scenaro for Vesely, and Vesely is a far cry from reaching even that. Jeffries had a better handle than Vesely ever will. The only reason Jeffries at SG/SF worked at all was because his team had deadly 3-point shooting from the PG position and the PF position - a luxury that we don't have. If you want a better example of what Jeffries would look like on a conventional team, look no further than his career in NY. He was a terrible player in NY. After years of fumbling around trying to be useful, he finally ended up settling into a role where he was a barely competent role player... at power forward.

When Melo was out, Jeffries was terrific when he played with Chandler and Steve Novak, with Lin at the point. Jeffries played great defense and was an excellent facilitator at the height of Linsanity. Novak hitting threes and smart. team play won games.

In his 4 starts the Knicks won all 4 games. Between 2/4/12 and 2/15/12 the Knicks won 7 straight, with Jeffries rating a plus in all seven games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2012/

The Knicks were 8-0 in games with Jeffries on the court 26+ minutes. How was that possible, nate? He was terrible for the Knicks?

People say things like Vesely is terrible and six straight wins with him starting as a rookie don't count for various reasons. I say the guy can be useful. There is a way to get the best out of any player. The problem is organizations that assassinate character and which do not develop the very players they foolishly draft. Space the floor and figure out a way to get Vesely in a comfort zone. Oleksiy Pecherov had the same skill set as a Matt Bonner but not the grit, determination, and good fortune to come up with the Spurs. Unlike with Pecherov, the Wizards have a good defensive core with rugged bigs. They could use his skill set now.

Vesely fits somewhere but not where he's being asked to morph into a different player.

[nate33]

When Melo was out, Jeffries was terrific when he played with Chandler and Steve Novak, with Lin at the point. Jeffries played great defense and was an excellent facilitator at the height of Linsanity. Novak hitting threes and smart. team play won games.

In his 4 starts the Knicks won all 4 games. Between 2/4/12 and 2/15/12 the Knicks won 7 straight, with Jeffries rating a plus in all seven games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2012/

Great. So start Vesely at the 3, we'll get 4 years of suckitude and then maybe a nice 4 game spurt in 2017.

The Knicks were 8-0 in games with Jeffries on the court 26+ minutes. How was that possible, nate? He was terrible for the Knicks?

Because they only felt comfortable playing Jeffries in games when they had a big enough lead to endure his ineptitude. You can't honestly believe that they misused Jeffries the other 230 odd games in his NY career and that they should have been playing him more along.

[Dat2U]

Trying to use Jared Jeffries to validate Jan Vesely as an NBA player is probably a bad idea if your trying to change people's opinions.

No one in here is clamoring for the next Jared Jeffries.

[tontoz]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

I have been right and virtually all of you wrong more than once. This time I am more than confident I am right

Vesely's career WS/48: 0.70
Seraphin's career WS/48: 0.36

I am astounded that after all these years many of you seem to me to think I don't have a clue. IMO Vesely's problem's are largely emotional and with coaching and with his fear of failing. Fans hating on a 22-year old can have a devastating affect.

Regardless, I see wins, positive win score in situations, success when playing with a stretch four and at 10-15 pounds lighter....

Vesely can be a very useful NBA player and I bet he would under most other teams.