Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah that would be a great draft but it doesn't strike me as realistic to get back into range to draft Zeller too. I think he's going to go a lot higher than people expect. Maybe top 6. I'm thinking Sacramento at 7 is his floor.

I think it's a stupid ass team that would take Adams over Zeller like I see in several mocks. I just don't see Zeller falling to 11 like the mocks predict.

Another scenario I like is where we take Bennett and then move back up into maybe the late teens or early 20's and take Dieng, Plumlee, or Withey. I think that's actually very doable. That way you could get your defensive anchor type C to pair with Bennett right away. I'd feel a lot better about our front court and our team construction as a whole if we had young bigs I believed in already in place, developing behind Okafor and Nene this season.

[keynote]

I don't think the release point for a 7 footer is too much of an issue. He shouldn't be shooting contested jumpers anyway. As long as he's canning them, who cares? Nobody in the league can even come close to blocking it except for maybe McGee and Deandre has a shot of blocking it face-up, point-blank.

I don't entirely agree. Having a low release point will make it slightly tougher for him to shoot over length in the post: turn arounds, face-ups, etc. You're right that he'll be mostly fine on the perimeter for pick-and-pops, etc. But if he wants to develop a classic post game, he should probably raise that release point a little bit.

Again, though, it's a minor complaint. I agree w/ Nate that he looked bulkier (both upper and lower body) than I remember in Indiana. If anything, it shows that he has the work ethic and the body type to pack on more weight. He should be able to get to 245-250 lbs in a year or two. a 7 ft, 250 lb PF with good lateral quickness and range out to three might be just what the doctor ordered.

A question about Zeller: does he have any nasty in him? Or would Chauncey Billups describe him as "too nice of a guy" or "soft on the inside"?

[The Consiglieri]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I really don't see the freak athlete thing at all inside. Below the rim, and absolutely owned by college bigs he had to deal with, and had his clock cleaned against Syracuse. He couldn't and can't do anything in the post against legit big men on the next level. There's a reason NBA scouts see him as a 4, and in some cases, stretch 4. He can't play inside at the next level, and his athleticism doesn't translate inside. I do think he does a lot of things well and will find a role at the next level and perhaps become a solid starter, but he's nowhere near good enough in terms of upside, inside game, and wing span to justify wasting a top 6 pick on him, let alone a top 3.

I wouldn't touch him, unless we traded down, and I would consider a trade down for him a catostrophic mistake. Productive player in college and winner are not translatable factors, they're just descriptors that don't have a lot to do w/the individual, and do have a lot to do with the team itself. I do agree that he's a hard worker, and has great feet and hands and perimeter skills, but I don't think he has the athleticism, wingspan/reach, or size to play effectively inside in the NBA. I think he'd be just another big man sitting on the bench and getting a handful of minutes.

[nuposse04]

The shooting Zeller exhibited in that video is a bit of a relief for his sake. I'm not sure I'd say its the prettiest shot in the world but it definitely looks like he'll be able to do some stuff as a stretch 4.

As some have said it, I still don't think zeller has the power to get high off the ground very quickly. He will either need a running start or quite a while to gather himself. He won't find the latter very often against good NBA teams. I still think his lateral scores should translate over.

Ironically enough if Zeller keeps working on his shooting touch he could be a slightly better version of Ersan I think. Not sure if he'll ever be a 10+ rebounder per 36 but he ought to be able to manage 17-7 if he really works on his corner 3.

[Nivek]

I'd have zero problem with picking Zeller at #3 -- he's #2 overall in YODA. Oladipo rated #1, but I'm a bit more skeptical of him at the top of the heap. I think he's going to be a really good pro -- he was productive as a freshman and sophomore (although he didn't shoot the ball well), and then made a big jump as a junior primarily on tremendous shooting. Was that shooting a real improvement in form and he's now a terrific shooter? Or was it an aberration and he's about to revert to the mean?

With Zeller, the big question for me is whether he has the shooting ability and the ball skills to transition to PF. That video would indicate he has a comfortable shooting stroke out to the NBA three-point line. I think he has sufficient length and overall athleticism to be a good PF.

The guy at the top of the draft I'd be most nervous about picking is Noel because of his slender frame and injury history. He could become a quality player in a few years, or he could have constant health problems and end up contributing next to nothing. Pervis Ellison is a name that keeps coming to mind.

For me, the pick (should the Wizards stay at three) would be Oladipo, Zeller or Porter.

Porter doesn't look to me like someone who's going to be an All-NBA performer, but he's going to have a long career where his impact on games is bigger than his reputation. I think the same will be true of Zeller. Oladipo has a bigger boom/bust range, in my view. If his junior year shooting was "real" then he could very well end up a dominating pro. If his junior year shooting was an aberration, then he'll still find a niche as a Tony Allen type. That would be disappointing for a top 3 pick, though.

[nate33]

It's amazing how much one bad game against Syracuse has tanked Zeller's value. I'm sure every other prospect in this draft has had a few real bad outings but they're not getting killed for it. Zeller played bad in one game. Big whoop. ALL bigs play poorly against the 2-3 zone. That's why teams run a 2-3 zone!

Zeller posted 22 and 11 (per 40) as the primary option for perhaps the best team in college basketball. He also anchored their defense. You have to try real hard to argue that his performance in college is somehow detrimental to his pro prospects.

[fishercob]

But in the end, I think it will just be Porter and we'll all be happy. Now, if you could somehow buy that #12 or #13 pick and leverage that up a few spots to get Porter AND Zeller....

That would be awesome, and I might even be in favor of keeping EG as GM if he could pull that off. A master manipulator might be able to pull it off, imo.

Lots of good discussion of Zeller over these past few pages as people seem to be more comfortable with his ability to step out on the perimeter. Here's my subsequent question:

What separates him from Olynyk?

We have shied away from Olynyk because he's not a credible defensive anchor. Well, he actually but up better defensive rebounding numbers than Zeller did. Olynyk is just 18 months older, so this isn't a boys v. men situation, is it? Olynyk might be as pure a shooter from distance AND he's got a more refined ability to ISO -- challenge his jumper and he'll take one dribble, create space with a spin move and knock down a Dirk-around jumper. Can Zeller do this?

My point isn't that we should draft Olynyk third. But if we find ourselves in the late lotto someone, why pay a premium for Zeller over KO?

EDIT:

Okay, yeah. Zeller's the better prospect. So much more athletic and explosive (and Olynyk took a year off to build what athleticism he has). And Zeller may have some "hidden value" since he shot so little from the perimeter in college.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvb2SNJ9T4w[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4[/youtube]

[nuposse04]

^"All NBA"

Outside of Noel...I don't think anyone in this draft has an optimistic chance of cracking an ALL NBA team. I think there could be a plethora of all star caliber players...but no one seems like they could dominate unless you assume they're really going to reach their ceiling.

Oladipo seems more like a slightly rich man's Shumpert to me. Excellent role player, who could be a top 10 SG very soon...but look at the crop of SGs in the NBA...Its rather uninspiring if you lookoutside of Wade/Kobe.

Harden, Beal, Waiters, Gordon, Stephenson(never thought i'd have to list him this high), Klay...

[keynote]

Here's a pic of Porter during his Wizards workout:



Is it me, or does he look a little bigger as well? What are the agents feeding/injecting into these guys during draft workout season?

[Dat2U]

Zeller actually had a couple of bad games. Again, he's 4th on my board so there's not much difference of opinion going around but in any other draft he'd probably be 3 or 4 spots lower.

[Dat2U]

Lots of good discussion of Zeller over these past few pages as people seem to be more comfortable with his ability to step out on the perimeter. Here's my subsequent question:

What separates him from Olynyk?

We have shied away from Olynyk because he's not a credible defensive anchor. Well, he actually but up better defensive rebounding numbers than Zeller did. Olynyk is just 18 months older, so this isn't a boys v. men situation, is it? Olynyk might be as pure a shooter from distance AND he's got a more refined ability to ISO -- challenge his jumper and he'll take one dribble, create space with a spin move and knock down a Dirk-around jumper. Can Zeller do this?

My point isn't that we should draft Olynyk third. But if we find ourselves in the late lotto someone, why pay a premium for Zeller over KO?

Agreed. I wouldn't trade back up for Zeller if Olynyk is sitting on the board. Olynyk is a safe bet. His skill set is far more advanced then Zeller's is. If Zeller had Olynyk's skill he'd be the #1 pick in the draft. I still think Olynyk has some potential to play C unlike Zeller, mostly in a backup role. His standing reach is a full two inches higher than Zeller.

[GhostsOfGil]

Here's a pic of Porter during his Wizards workout:

Spoiler:

Is it me, or does he look a little bigger as well? What are the agents feeding/injecting into these guys during draft workout season?

I agree, Keynote. He definitely looks like he's added some good weight... could be the angle and shadowing though.

[dobrojim]

funny thing in thinking about Zeller though and I am NOT suggesting
this should be our thought process, but how happy would we have
been a year ago if we were told we drafted Beal and other than
being injured, he was as good (or better) as reasonably hoped, AND that
we had a chance to draft Zeller the following year. I think most
on the board would have been ecstatic with that scenario. Especially
if you then included that he (Z) had an a successful year and shown
in workouts he could shoot much better than we realized.

of course a year ago we didn't know what we know now, especially
in terms of opportunity cost. But that's still an attractive scenario.

[nate33]

Lots of good discussion of Zeller over these past few pages as people seem to be more comfortable with his ability to step out on the perimeter. Here's my subsequent question:

What separates him from Olynyk?

Footspeed and lateral quickness. Zeller should be fine defending the PF position and may actually be quite good. Olynyk can't guard PF's at all. He has to play center and he'd be a bad one defensively because he lacks the length to protect the rim.

The only way I can envision Olynyk starting for a good team is if he is paired with an extremely long and rangy PF who can play help D - guy like a prime Garnett, Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Serge Ibaka or maybe Josh Smith. Otherwise, his team is guaranteed to be bad defensively.

[nate33]

Here's a pic of Porter during his Wizards workout:

Spoiler:

Is it me, or does he look a little bigger as well? What are the agents feeding/injecting into these guys during draft workout season?

I agree, Keynote. He definitely looks like he's added some good weight... could be the angle and shadowing though.

Porter's upper body has looked pretty solid all year. The issue with him is that he has stick legs and a skinny core. He's a little top heavy.

[tontoz]

It's amazing how much one bad game against Syracuse has tanked Zeller's value. I'm sure every other prospect in this draft has had a few real bad outings but they're not getting killed for it. Zeller played bad in one game. Big whoop. ALL bigs play poorly against the 2-3 zone. That's why teams run a 2-3 zone!

Zeller posted 22 and 11 (per 40) as the primary option for perhaps the best team in college basketball. He also anchored their defense. You have to try real hard to argue that his performance in college is somehow detrimental to his pro prospects.

I remember Tim Duncan looking bad at times against a zone in college. I didn't think he would be anywhere near as good in the pros as he turned out to be.

Obviously I am not trying to compare Zeller to Duncan but it is hard for a big man to look good when a zone is collapsing on him.

[Nivek]

Statistical production suggests Olynyk could be a good pro, but his physical tools/measurements create some questions.

Zeller is small for an NBA center, but has sufficient length and athleticism to move to PF -- assuming he has (or can develop) the requisite skills.

Olynyk has a standing reach of 9-0, which is actually below average for a center. His agility scores are good for a center, but subpar for a PF. And his vertical was below average for a center, which means it's even more below average for a PF. He did 5 reps on the bench press, which would be low for a PG (although, this is the least important factor).

Olynyk is very skilled and should be able to carve out a niche for himself in the league, but it may have to be as a stretch 5 or an off-the-bench stretch 4 like Bonner or Novak. Basically, while he has promise and is worth drafting, he doesn't have a clear position. I'd be okay with taking him as high as 9 in a trade-down scenario. However, if DX's mock is reflective of what GMs are thinking, the Wiz might be able to get Zeller at 9.

[popper]

I'd have zero problem with picking Zeller at #3 -- he's #2 overall in YODA. Oladipo rated #1, but I'm a bit more skeptical of him at the top of the heap. I think he's going to be a really good pro -- he was productive as a freshman and sophomore (although he didn't shoot the ball well), and then made a big jump as a junior primarily on tremendous shooting. Was that shooting a real improvement in form and he's now a terrific shooter? Or was it an aberration and he's about to revert to the mean?

With Zeller, the big question for me is whether he has the shooting ability and the ball skills to transition to PF. That video would indicate he has a comfortable shooting stroke out to the NBA three-point line. I think he has sufficient length and overall athleticism to be a good PF.

The guy at the top of the draft I'd be most nervous about picking is Noel because of his slender frame and injury history. He could become a quality player in a few years, or he could have constant health problems and end up contributing next to nothing. Pervis Ellison is a name that keeps coming to mind.

For me, the pick (should the Wizards stay at three) would be Oladipo, Zeller or Porter.

Porter doesn't look to me like someone who's going to be an All-NBA performer, but he's going to have a long career where his impact on games is bigger than his reputation. I think the same will be true of Zeller. Oladipo has a bigger boom/bust range, in my view. If his junior year shooting was "real" then he could very well end up a dominating pro. If his junior year shooting was an aberration, then he'll still find a niche as a Tony Allen type. That would be disappointing for a top 3 pick, though.

My sentiments as well.

[The Consiglieri]

I dunno if this clip of Zeller's workout w/ the Kings has already been posted, but here you go:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abPOpSJ0ovQ[/youtube]

You get a nice look at Zeller's shooting form. His release point is a little low for my tastes, but it looks fluid and accurate.

I liked this little comment from Pelton yesterday:

link:

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/ ... vin-pelton

John (Nashville)



Did Brandon in Phoenix look at the athletic numbers on Cody Zeller. At the combine he the fastest player over 6 feet

Kevin Pelton
(4:33 PM)



A lot has been written about how Zeller trained for the combine. But I think the real important takeaway here is that athleticism is a very nebulous thing. There are some areas (lateral quickness) in which Zeller is very athletic, and others (quick jumping) in which he is limited athletically.

Yes.

I agree that we can learn some stuff from the measurements and testing, but there's plenty we can't learn. Bennett and Zeller may be able to jump very high, but anyone who thinks that they are in the same category as Blake Griffin athletically -- within the context of a basketball game -- is a complete fool.

Zeller, for instance, may be a very fast runner and high jumper. But I'd guess it takes him well longer to gather himself and get off the ground than a freak like Griffin. The athletic testing doesn't measure this stuff.

Antawn Jamison could never jump over a phonebook, but he was very effective on both the offensive and defensive glass because he was so quick off his feet. One of my favorite ridiculous Jay Bilas terms is "second jump-ability" and there were few better than Jamison in his prime.

So while Zeller may be very athletic, he doesn't or wont' play an athletic game. That's not a knock; I think he's plenty skilled to be effective playing how he plays.

It's a knock for me because the dreams of him playing an effective inside game in view are fools gold, I think he's going to be consistently rejected, just as he was against Syracuse. I think inside, his size and athleticism aren't going to matter all that much. He and Bennett are virtually identical in terms of length, despite Zeller having several inches on him in terms of height so if this height issue is a non-starter for Bennett, whose clearly a more explosive leaper and athlete than Zeller, than why isn't it an issue for Zeller?

I'm completely flummoxed by this. The only quality Zeller has that Bennett doesn't is a more advanced post game, but it's largely irrelevant, because if Bennett's lack of standing reach is a huge issue, than what of Zeller's issues in terms of wing span and reach, which are inferior in terms of positional demands to that of Bennett? It's just bizarre to me. Porter has ideal length and while not ideal athleticism, he's definitely got a lot of selling points. Considering how much interest there is in using Zeller at both the 5, and 4 on this board, I am baffled as to why many of the posters who've given up on Bennett are still raving about Zeller? If Bennett's a liability at a stretch 4, how in hell is Zeller going to cut it with his weak wing span and reach, at the 4 and he ?

Anyway, if measurements are the deal here, and being able to cut it inside, than Zeller should be cast out just as readily as Bennett because he isn't going to remotely be able to handle life inside at the next level, especially when you note that Zeller has never been able to translate his vertical leap into an in game asset.

[Dat2U]

Lots of good discussion of Zeller over these past few pages as people seem to be more comfortable with his ability to step out on the perimeter. Here's my subsequent question:

What separates him from Olynyk?

Footspeed and lateral quickness. Zeller should be fine defending the PF position and may actually be quite good. Olynyk can't guard PF's at all. He has to play center and he'd be a bad one defensively because he lacks the length to protect the rim.

The only way I can envision Olynyk starting for a good team is if he is paired with an extremely long and rangy PF who can play help D - guy like a prime Garnett, Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Serge Ibaka or maybe Josh Smith. Otherwise, his team is guaranteed to be bad defensively.

Another little quibble. His standing reach of 9'0 is passable for a C. There are number of defensive minded guys with the same reach who are effective. I think there are legit questions about his defense which keeps him from being a top prospect but he's also going to bring more to the table than Zeller does offensively.