Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[stevemcqueen1]

I could easily see a trade down for Olynyk working out. I agree w/ you that he can be a 10+ year good NBA player. As to Caldwell-Pope, he's moving up the DR mock; he has a shot to be the best rookie SG this year!

I like Porter, but I'd be very satisfied if the #3 pick got us picks that turned into Caldwell-Pope and Olynyk.

Wolters and some of the other guys you mention are also outstanding prospects.

If we had a GM who knew how to pick, we could turn our #3 pick into a terrific bunch of talent. If we had a GM who understood how talent-starved we are, he might try to do that. But we have a GM who thinks he is way astute if he puts together an average team (at a higher-than-average salary cost, btw). So that's not likely to happen.

Hence I'm stuck and just hope we pick Otto Porter; I feel pretty optimistic that he'll be a significantly better than average 3 in the league. Then of course we'll waste our #38 and throw away our #54 in the usual Ernie manner.

How many times in the NBA has a GM turned a top 5 pick into a terrific bunch of talent by trading down in the draft? This isn't the NFL and that strategy normally doesn't work. In almost any scenario, the team that wins the trade is the team that gets the single best player. If you guys ran the Rockets, you would have probably traded the Harden and Westbrook picks. And, I don't think there is any way that Caldwell Pope is going to be the best rookie shooting guard, nevermind have the best career.

CCJ, I like Olynyk too, but it makes zero sense to trade down for him. Olynyk is going to be picked in a range where picks can be bought and traded for at very little expense. I would much rather trade UP for Olynyk and keep and use the 3rd pick.

I watched that draft express video on Steven Adams and it wasn't too impressive. There were a lot of clips in there of him getting blocked by smaller, "less athletic" players. He looks less coordinated with a basketball than my very uncoordinated son. Maybe he could be groomed to be a good goon, but I think it is going to take a while. He measures like a top 12 pick and Drummond probably helps him. Drummond was on an entirely different level however on the defensive end of the floor. I wonder if a comp for Adams could be a very poor man's Derrick Favors.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmdpZD61dUw

Also, in the extended video of Porter's workout, I was impressed by his shooting. His form isn't beautiful, but his shot looks effortless and he seemed to make more of them than I remember Beal making in his workout highlights. I think Porter's shot is going to translate. I would be a little more comfortable with that prediction however if his FT% was a little higher.

I completely agree. Two axioms of the NBA, always trade coins for paper and team that gets the best player wins the trade. I agree about KCP too. And Olynyk. And Adams. Adams is bigger than Favors. Not as skilled or productive as Favors was at GT though. Production was a concern for Favors too.

I would go for quality over quantity in almost any acquisition, but particularly now, when we've got the Wall/Beal foundation in place. I think we're best off staying put in the top five and picking one of the most likely impact guys. Bennett or Porter probably. Though I would like to see us move up to get a defensive big. Those guys are expensive role players after their rookie deals are over.

[theboomking]

I wonder if there is any way to get Len without giving up Wall, Beal, or the 3rd pick. Len, Porter, Wall and Beal could make the core of a potentially great team, if Len pans out. I don't worry as much about his ankle, not nearly as much as I do about Noel's knee. Once you tear your ACL, across the general population, you are about 5 times more likely to develop osteoarthritis, whether you have an ACL reconstruction or not. With Len, I think his ankle is probably a factor of putting on too much weight too fast. How much weight did he gain in the last year at Maryland? 35 pounds? I worry more about Len's motor and inconsistent production than his ankle.

[Mr. Grundle]

I made the Oladipo / Jordan comparison many months ago in Draft Thread 1 or 2, and I'm glad someone else see's the similarities as well.

It's not just the numbers, although I think they are closer than people realize when you account for O's lower usage rate.

Oladipo seems to have the "it" quality. The will to win. The drive to succeed no matter what. I think he's got that same fire burning in his belly that Jordan had, the drive and determination to be great.

I think Oladipo will be a better NBA player than college player, similar to Jordan. Will he be an all-time great like Jordan and average 30 a game? No probably not. But I can see him being a multiple all-star, averaging 20/6/6, all defensive first team.

People like to point out he only had one good year of shooting, and that it could be an aberration, as a negative. Knowing what we know about Oladipo and how he works, is more likely that his shooting was an aberration or just a result of hard work and time put in? He's not going to become a worse shooter, he's going to become an even better shooter than he already is.

The other negative appears to be that he can only score in the following ways - catch and shoot, 3-pt shooting, straight line drives, fast break scoring. Damn, that's it? True, he hasn't shown he can go 1-on-1 and break down his opponent off the dribble and get to the charity stripe....yet. But he hasn't had to. Cody Zeller was the consensus #1 college player going into last season. When you have that guy you don't force 1-on-1 drives, you force it inside to him instead.

Oladipo is still my #1 player in this draft. You name it, he's got it. Shooting, slashing, defense, finishing at the rim, high basketball IQ, incredible work ethic, and off the charts athletic numbers. What more are you looking for?

I'd take O at 3 and not even worry about him fitting in with Wall and Beal. There is so much versatility combined between those 3 players that it won't be hard to get them all the minutes they require. Backup guard is a bigger need than SF at the moment anyway. Do we need to replace Ariza / Webster, who gave us exactly what we were looking for as 3 and D wings, or would you rather replace a Garrett Temple / Cartier Martin?

[fishercob]

I wonder if there is any way to get Len without giving up Wall, Beal, or the 3rd pick. Len, Porter, Wall and Beal could make the core of a potentially great team, if Len pans out. I don't worry as much about his ankle, not nearly as much as I do about Noel's knee. Once you tear your ACL, across the general population, you are about 5 times more likely to develop osteoarthritis, whether you have an ACL reconstruction or not. With Len, I think his ankle is probably a factor of putting on too much weight too fast. How much weight did he gain in the last year at Maryland? 35 pounds? I worry more about Len's motor and inconsistent production than his ankle.

I was just thinking this. I think it might be possible depending on how the top of the draft shakes out.

If Len gets past 5. he could slide a bit. New Orlens has three young complementary bigs and it may not see the reward of adding Len justyifying the risk. The Kinds have Cousins. The Pistons have Drummond and Monroe. Mineesota plans to keep Pekovic and desperately needs a wing. Portland does need a center, but they are said to really want one who is ready to go and have been mentioned as a team likely to trade their pick for a starter.

Then Philly, OKC, Dallas, and Utah.

Trey Burke going second would be a good start to a Len slide. We got Porter at 3. The hopefully Charlotte grabs Bennett at 4, as they have nothing in the way of frontcourt scoring. Phoenix snaps one of McLemore or Oladipo. New Orleans -- given Gordon's desire to be elsewhere and injuries -- likely grabs the other.

The hope at that point is that we could swing a deal to get into the late lottery to grab Len. That would be pretty awesome.

[hands11]

Can we trade for a front court elite player in his prime with the assets we have? NO. Or maybe a pretend GM has a plausible plan where we can get this type of player. Jordan, while he was here, was at least gunning for one by trying to grab stackhouse. Unfortunately stackhouse was on major decline. the whole point of the post is that you have to have a goal before you can get there. this board hasn't even made it a goal to acquire a truly elite player, we are gunning for Glue players with the last valuable trade asset we have.

We struck out for 20 straight years finding a 450 or greater FTM front court player. Your excuse is that we just weren't lucky and the other teams that managed to obtaining a true front court PLAYER is luck.

I believe there are other forces in play and we don't have the expertise on this board to figure it out. Maybe a special pretend gm poster does. I don't, but I have a goal to hopefully inspire the hidden talent we have here to come forth.

Wall averaged 6.2 FTA a game last year. 6.2x82=508 6.2 FTA was #8 in the league.

Wall averaged 7.1 FTA in March and 8.9 in April.

7.1 x 82 = 582
8.9 x 82 = 729 this would rank him 4th only behind Harden, Howard and Durant.

Nate is right. The game has changed.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/playe ... asontype/2

The players you want, we already have. Time to move onto another point to complain about because this one is dead.

We are talking away your pretend GM card for one week.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Eleven days to the draft.

I look forward to this particular draft like I looked forward to Christmas as a kid.

Funny and so true. It's sad how much I am looking forward to draft night and how excited I am. And this draft... it's like I've been trying to peak in my parents closet to see what I'm getting but they got that sh#t hidden real good this year!


Hopefully Ernie isn't gettin us all a big lump of coal!

[sfam]

Anyone read the piece at truthaboutit on Oladipo and Jordan? Great Read.

http://www.truthaboutit.net/2013/06/the ... ordan.html

The article before that is also very interesting (detailing pro's and con's with Len and Noel).

After reading that, I may be on the Oladipo bandwagon. It's just too bad I get zero sense whatsoever we're interested (and I kinda think he's gonna go 1 or 2 in a surprise).

That's a good article. Makes me want to put him above Porter at least. I'm not that much put off by a tweet by Bennett wanting to sleep longer though. That seemed like a cheap shot, especially after starting off the article with how lazy Jordan was.

[sfam]

I of course could be wrong.

"You may be wrong, oh whoa I know, but you may be right!" - Billy Joel

We all could be wrong. This draft and these prospects are probably the hardest to forcast than any draft before.

It'll be funny if Ernie deals the pick for a vet and relegates these entire 700+ posts and all the time spent reading these into a colossal waste of time.

If only I were a violent person. EG really knows how to make people hate him. If he does that Ersan trade...

[sfam]

But in that link didnt somebody make comparison to MJ in terms of college numbers? Also if that's his strength, wouldn't that compliment John Wall's drive skill and shooting skill and passing skill. He really opens people up.

Jordan averaged 20.0 and 19.6 points in his last 2 college seasons in an era that wasn't watered down by one-and-done players going pro early.

Oladipo averaged just 13.4 points per game. I think the Oladipo-Jordan analogy is a stretch.

I think the "anyone" - Jordan analogy would be a stretch. The key point is it makes sense to draft the best talent even if this is problematic from a position standpoint. The problem is that all those at the top have risks coupled with the fact that no one player really rises above. So you might almost default to picking for need.

[sfam]

So this is the excuse for why we haven't had a legitimate front court player who has approached 500 FTM in the last 20 years outside of a broken down Jerry Stackhouse?

First it was 10 years, then 14, and now twenty.

Are there legitimate front court players who have not approached 500 FTM, and also, are there illegitimate front court players who have approached 500 FTM?

Stop being coy. You know what you really mean is everyone is an idiot who doesn't want Bennet first, last, and only, because he will get (or approach, which is apparently legitimate under the revised criteria) 500 FTM. If we are opposed to drafting Bennet, it can only be in favor of trading for a player in his prime who will get 500 FTM, along with a lower draft pick, which will be used to draft Adams, who will not approach 500 FTM.

Champeenship!

I think a case can be made that Bennett's inside-outside scoring potential is unique in this draft, and perhaps rare in the league. That said, he clearly has enough concerns that I see why people would shy away from him. He really does have to kick it up a notch in terms of maturity.

[verbal8]

Eleven days to the draft.

I look forward to this particular draft like I looked forward to Christmas as a kid.

Funny and so true. It's sad how much I am looking forward to draft night and how excited I am. And this draft... it's like I've been trying to peak in my parents closet to see what I'm getting but they got that sh#t hidden real good this year!

Hopefully Ernie isn't gettin us all a big lump of coal!

I expect the Wizards will pick Porter with the 3rd pick. However I still think this will be a very interesting draft. With the top of the draft not blowing most people away, I think there will be a lot of trades and could be some reaches and players sliding more than expected. For the Wizards I think the 2nd round pick will be interesting. The best move might be to add an asset and try to trade into the late 1st round.

[sfam]

Somehow we need to combine second round picks, Vesely/Singleton, and cash to acquire another first round pick. There is a decent chance that Gobert, Adams, Crabbe, or one or two other players projected to go in the first could turn into future franchise cornerstones.

would you give a first round pick for Vesely and Singleton? Isn't that sorta like asking the city dump to pay you to put your garbage there?

[sfam]

I wonder if there is any way to get Len without giving up Wall, Beal, or the 3rd pick. Len, Porter, Wall and Beal could make the core of a potentially great team, if Len pans out. I don't worry as much about his ankle, not nearly as much as I do about Noel's knee. Once you tear your ACL, across the general population, you are about 5 times more likely to develop osteoarthritis, whether you have an ACL reconstruction or not. With Len, I think his ankle is probably a factor of putting on too much weight too fast. How much weight did he gain in the last year at Maryland? 35 pounds? I worry more about Len's motor and inconsistent production than his ankle.

I think its far more likely we try to make a play for someone like a Withey. We're not getting a second lottery pick. I would love it if we moved up for Dieng, but he seems like he'll be late lottery too.

[Earth2Ted]

Anyone buying the buzz out there that the Cavs may be looking at Alex Len at #1- which could potentially leave us with a choice between Porter and Noel at #3?

I'm still hoping we go big this draft- it's a little distressing to hear that the front office seems pretty content with Okafor and Nene going forward. Especially the way that Nene struggled on the court physically the past year- that plus his overall health history doesn't leave a lot of room for optimism.

[popper]

Somehow we need to combine second round picks, Vesely/Singleton, and cash to acquire another first round pick. There is a decent chance that Gobert, Adams, Crabbe, or one or two other players projected to go in the first could turn into future franchise cornerstones.

would you give a first round pick for Vesely and Singleton? Isn't that sorta like asking the city dump to pay you to put your garbage there?

I was thinking more along the lines of our #38, Singleton or Veseley, and cash for a late first round choice. Maybe we take on a moderately priced guard buried on the bench of the other team as well. Don't know if it's realistic but if I'm EG I would try.

[sfam]

Anyone buying the buzz out there that the Cavs may be looking at Alex Len at #1- which could potentially leave us with a choice between Porter and Noel at #3?

I'm still hoping we go big this draft- it's a little distressing to hear that the front office seems pretty content with Okafor and Nene going forward. Especially the way that Nene struggled on the court physically the past year- that plus his overall health history doesn't leave a lot of room for optimism.

Its hard to judge what the cavs might do, but I'd bet the surprise pick for the Cavs eould be Oladipo, not Len. Oladipo does well in the advanced stats grind the Cavs use.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I wonder if there is any way to get Len without giving up Wall, Beal, or the 3rd pick. Len, Porter, Wall and Beal could make the core of a potentially great team, if Len pans out. I don't worry as much about his ankle, not nearly as much as I do about Noel's knee. Once you tear your ACL, across the general population, you are about 5 times more likely to develop osteoarthritis, whether you have an ACL reconstruction or not. With Len, I think his ankle is probably a factor of putting on too much weight too fast. How much weight did he gain in the last year at Maryland? 35 pounds? I worry more about Len's motor and inconsistent production than his ankle.

I think its far more likely we try to make a play for someone like a Withey. We're not getting a second lottery pick. I would love it if we moved up for Dieng, but he seems like he'll be late lottery too.

Dieng is who I'd really like to move up for.

His D, passing, ability to play uptempo, his IQ and mental approach make him an ideal fit for us IMO.

[hands11]

Anyone read the piece at truthaboutit on Oladipo and Jordan? Great Read.

http://www.truthaboutit.net/2013/06/the ... ordan.html

The article before that is also very interesting (detailing pro's and con's with Len and Noel).

After reading that, I may be on the Oladipo bandwagon. It's just too bad I get zero sense whatsoever we're interested (and I kinda think he's gonna go 1 or 2 in a surprise).

I still want an answer as to why this guy not going Top 3. Asking should he go top three seem more like the easier question to answer. The harder would be why isn't he going top 3

The concern with Oladipo is that his usage rate is so low. He averaged just 13.6 points per game as a junior, which is anemic. On a pace adjusted per 40 minute basis, he averaged 18.8 points, which is okay, but nothing to write home about. He's basically only scoring on the fast break or when Zeller draws enough defensive attention to set him up for an open look. Now, that speaks highly of his basketball IQ and his understanding of the difference between a good shot and a bad shot, but it also casts a lot of doubt on his ability to create his own shot at the next level.

Jordan had something to say about that.

Playboy: If you had to put a team around you, what’s the one quality you’d want?

Jordan: Heart. That would be the biggest thing. I think heart means a lot. It separates the great from the good players.

Playboy: Aside from the shots, what else do the great players have?

Jordan: Mental toughness. When you need a basket, you have to have the confidence in yourself to go out there and hit three great shots. You know you have to do it. That drives me.

--
I beat on this a lot. I call it personality, character, etc. Its a hard thing to measure sometimes but it so so important.

So how do people rank the class weighing this stuff more heavily.

[nuposse04]

All the heart in the world can't overcome serious talent flaws. I'm not so sure Jordan is the right guy to be asking how to build a team given his track record...

I think the top 8 in the draft class sans Len/Bennett exude a similar amount of heart.

[jivelikenice]

Read that the Cavs may pursue Andre Igoudola. If that's the case it looks like its Len v Noel's for #1. I still want Otto, but I can see what's tempting about Bennett. He's such a rare combination of skill and size. I do worry about him staying healthy.

Hopefully Ernie is looking at moving Ariza now versus waiting.