Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[Ruzious]

Thank the lord. Let them have him, Let's take porter and hope he plays the way we think he will.

Huh? I am starting to believe many of you are simply playing the attachment game on some of these picks, and not what's best for the Wizards.

I was attached to the OP draft as well being that he is the star from GT. but lets drop that for a moment and look at who is best for the Wizards, not simply who we are attached to the most emotionally to be a Wizard.

Noel is not nor will he ever be whats best for the team, to many red flag to be taken at the 3, I don't care if he pans out hes not worth the risk, i would rather take Porter, Len, or Oladipo or trade the pick than take Noel. Even if he stays healthy, I doubt he will developed any where close to the hype that is on him. I would rather be wrong and have him go to another team and do well than be right and we get stuck with A bust.

Agree to disagree. Now that it's reported that Noel's knee is not an issue, he's clearly the #1 prospect in this draft. That's got zero to do with hype. It's simple reality. His defensive stats were as good as it has ever gotten - as an 18 year old. Offensively, he has a ways to go, but he was very efficient for a freshman. He's got to get stronger, but so have 95% of players his age - see Alex Len as a rail thin freshman vs now, see Okafor as a 185 lb freshman (playing with a much heavier Caron Butler). And Noel's a good rebounder and consistently competes. Anyway, we'll just agree to completely disagree.

[pancakes3]

Both Chad and Bill have serious concerns about Porter. Red flag = he doens't have that 1 go to skill.

I suppose. Nobody seems to think Porter possesses a 3 point shot even though he shot 42% on 3 attempts a game. Also I suppose that the ability to play off-ball is not viewed as an go-to skill. Neither is defense. Compared to some #3 picks (Harden, Horford, Deron Williams, Melo, Gasol, Baron Davis, Billups, Penny) it seems like we're playing it super-safe to get the next Battier/Prince. Compared to others (Morrison, Dunleavy, Ben Gordon, Darius Miles, Laettner) it would appear that we'd be getting a deal.

I dunno. Simmons lost his luster as an NBA authority to me years ago. He's very entertaining but as a source of knowledge and analysis? It's a joke that he's one of ESPN's "guys".

[Dark Faze]

Simmons interviewed Porter and said he was linked to Detroit--seems like he's barely even been following these prospects beyond scuttlebutt.

And I lost respect for Ford a long time ago in terms of his analysis. Only ESPN guy I like these days is Jay Bilas.

[Dark Faze]

Ernie: "It's possible, but it's unlikely that a 38 and 54 (draft picks) will get us into the first round"

via bulletsforever

Not exactly an endorsement that he won't be trading the picks for cash or draft euro scrubs just so he can stash them overseas, but it's definitely leaning towards more of a plausibility in terms of him actually deciding to stick with his second rounders which is awesome.

[GhostsOfGil]

Simmons interviewed Porter and said he was linked to Detroit--seems like he's barely even been following these prospects beyond scuttlebutt.

And I lost respect for Ford a long time ago in terms of his analysis. Only ESPN guy I like these days is Jay Bilas.

I like Ford. I agree he's not the best analyst but he has sources and provides legitimate inside information.

[nuposse04]

Ernie: "It's possible, but it's unlikely that a 38 and 54 (draft picks) will get us into the first round"

via bulletsforever

Not exactly an endorsement that he won't be trading the picks for cash or draft euro scrubs just so he can stash them overseas, but it's definitely leaning towards more of a plausibility in terms of him actually deciding to stick with his second rounders which is awesome.

Vesely+38 ought to move us up a bit. Maybe the late 20s if someone is there we really like. If SAS loses out on T-rob maybe they can rehabilitate Jan.

I think if ATL doesn't want to keep Smith around for absurd money but still want retain cap flexibility maybe

Ariza+38 for 17/18+Lou Williams might be a start to something. If Lou can come back to form from his injury he'd be a good combo guard for us.

[Rafael122]

No one is going to trade for Ves and his $4 million salary.

[Dark Faze]

I'm still trying to figure out what the catch is with Seth Curry. For him not to be on mock drafts with his advanced stats while playing elite competition for a good school is really mind bogling to me.

[Dat2U]

I'm still trying to figure out what the catch is with Seth Curry. For him not to be on mock drafts with his advanced stats while playing elite competition for a good school is really mind bogling to me.

Not an NBA athlete. Frail and can't stay healthy. His stats are good, but not eye popping.

I think his best case scenario is as a specialist in the NBA. I don't think he's a regular rotation player though.

[Dat2U]

YOu guys are seriously under estimating ADams intangibles. he has amazing intangibles for a bigman. High motor, the fight and passion in him is off the charts. Outstanding lower body control, scaps, looks for his team mates, sniffs the ball out on the boards like a blood hound. I see alot of Dennis Rodman in steven Adams. He is a top three pick people. No he isn't going to dominate immediately but he will fill and role but he is guaranteed to dominate with his intangibles.
You are going to wait many many many drafts before you find a bigman prospects with his complete set of intangibles, and I mean, Tim Duncan like long. We haven't seen a Duncan like player in nearly a decade and a half. Guys like Marc gasol and Tim Duncan scrappy fire players are invaluable Noah. Let Adams be our scrappy junk yard 7 foot dennis rodman.

You make excellent points...

As long as you ignore his terrible hands and complete lack of offensive & defensive awareness, he's fine.

[tontoz]

Simmons interviewed Porter and said he was linked to Detroit--seems like he's barely even been following these prospects beyond scuttlebutt.

And I lost respect for Ford a long time ago in terms of his analysis. Only ESPN guy I like these days is Jay Bilas.

I like Ford. I agree he's not the best analyst but he has sources and provides legitimate inside information.

Agreed. Ford has very good contacts around the league for inside info. But when he gives his personal opinions i don't pay much attention.

[tontoz]

YOu guys are seriously under estimating ADams intangibles. he has amazing intangibles for a bigman. High motor, the fight and passion in him is off the charts. Outstanding lower body control, scaps, looks for his team mates, sniffs the ball out on the boards like a blood hound. I see alot of Dennis Rodman in steven Adams. He is a top three pick people. No he isn't going to dominate immediately but he will fill and role but he is guaranteed to dominate with his intangibles.
You are going to wait many many many drafts before you find a bigman prospects with his complete set of intangibles, and I mean, Tim Duncan like long. We haven't seen a Duncan like player in nearly a decade and a half. Guys like Marc gasol and Tim Duncan scrappy fire players are invaluable Noah. Let Adams be our scrappy junk yard 7 foot dennis rodman.

You make excellent points...

As long as you ignore his terrible hands and complete lack of offensive & defensive awareness, he's fine.

Intangibles >>> awareness

His backwards hopsteps and Olympic cleans are second to none.

[jivelikenice]

Ernie: "It's possible, but it's unlikely that a 38 and 54 (draft picks) will get us into the first round"

via bulletsforever

Not exactly an endorsement that he won't be trading the picks for cash or draft euro scrubs just so he can stash them overseas, but it's definitely leaning towards more of a plausibility in terms of him actually deciding to stick with his second rounders which is awesome.

Maybe they settle for moving up in Rd 2? Or maybe they trade a guy like Booker or Singleton with one of the seconds to move up. Lots of possible outcomes here...

[stevemcqueen1]

I think Archie Goodwin could be interesting as a long term project somewhere in the second. He'd be a lotto ticket. But I'm not sure what we'd do with him in the meantime.

i tell ya steve...as much as Archie has disappointed i have a feeling about him. i think most people forget how young he truly is and that most guys would be going into their freshman year of college at his age...Hell, during Archie Goodwin's rookie year in the NBA he will be the same age(2 month difference) as Shabazz Muhammad was when he dominated his Senior year of High School...think about that for a second.

You could basically have Goodwin play his sophomore year and he would be the age of the average 1 and done next year like the Harrison twins, Randle, etc.

Yeah, he's very young, late August birthday. I think the youngest player in the class but I'm not certain. Still developing in so many ways.

He's got a ton of raw talent. The feel for the game and the shooting skills have to get better but his speed and size and slashing ability are legit. It's a shame that Kentucky's incredible recruiting class forced him into the NBA too early because he could have used another year at least. He came into the year a lottery talent and could be a developmental gem.

But I don't know what we'd do with him if we drafted him and had to wait on him a while to develop. Keep him in the d league a while I guess. I think he's best off going to a team that uses the D League and can afford to wait on young players like OKC or SA.

[stevemcqueen1]

We've gone round and round, and I still think Noel goes first and McLemore goes second.

I hope we get one of Porter, Zeller, or Bennett, which is where I think I was at a couple months ago. Len has kind of teetered back and fourth on my wish list. I like everything I read about him. I dislike a lot of what I saw on the court.

[GhostsOfGil]

No one is going to trade for Ves and his $4 million expiring salary.

fixed?

[Severn Hoos]

I don't remember the Pecherov/Armstrong rumors, do tell!

I don't remember all of the details. From what I recall, it was in the way EG omitted Pecherov's name. Maybe he was naming the guys he was working out and suspiciously omitted Pecherov from the list - something like that. I remember doclinkin picking up on it and proclaiming Pecherov to be EG's target.

Bummer, I can't find the link, so I have to go from memory.

That was part of it, but the really telling thing was a report that Armstrong had been dominated by Pecherov in the Wiz workout prior to the 2006 draft. Then, a few days later, the website that reported the original story published a sheepish "retraction" saying that they were "mistaken" in their previous report, and that Pecherov had not actually dominated Armstrong.

It was so obvious that the Wiz went back to that website and told them to retract the story. (Have you ever heard a draft site retract a story based on something that wasn't objective fact but an opinion - like "Player A outperformed Player B in a workout"?)

They were probably afraid someone would sneak in and draft Pecherov before we got the chance. Of course, those fears were unfounded, to say the least....

[Ruzious]

We've gone round and round, and I still think Noel goes first and McLemore goes second.

I hope we get one of Porter, Zeller, or Bennett, which is where I think I was at a couple months ago. Len has kind of teetered back and fourth on my wish list. I like everything I read about him. I dislike a lot of what I saw on the court.

Agreed. I think we're lucky that Orlando's picking 2nd, because they're one of the few teams that needs a 2. And they have 2 young 3's that I think they love in Harkless and Harris. Afflalo can start at the 2, but I'm guessing they'd rather not start him. I like Ola more than McLemore, but they need a shooter, so they probably go McLemore. But if Orlando trades the pick, it's scramble time, and all bets are off.

My preference would be to end up with Zeller preferably in a trade down, but I'm resigned to the fact that it's not happening.

[doclinkin]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

I was not a fan. Fazekas looked the part of a stiff. Anyone who watched Fazekas mentioned how terrible an athlete he appeared to be. He moved like a stiff although he was quite effective and had a good skill level. Olynyk simply moves better and is far more agile.

As mentioned before, athletically, Olynyk reminds me of Andray Blatche. Heavy feet with hardly any lift but has good mobility and excellent body control.

Aww man, Nick Fazekas, that one stings. Well he was drafted by the Mavs, not like he'd earn a ton of time behind Dirk, and then suffered a string of nagging injuries, but I did think he would have fit great in the Wiz' Princeton sets as a back-up to Jamison and a substitute 'point-pivot' Princeton center.

The thing that intrigues me about Olynyk is his improvement. His ability and willingness to workshop his game and radically alter how he plays. There's an intriguing video of him playing internationally against Argentina from a scant few years back where he is unrecognizable as the player he is today. Literally: couldn't figure out which one he was: he's got short hair and a lean body playing as a perimeter SF not a center. (Number 7 in white and WTF? on the audio...).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3dIHId4ls8[/youtube]

Contrast with any of the highlights videos.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjJy4e7DryM[/youtube]

Work ethic and BBIQ are two key elements for a player's long term success. The reason that younger players who succeed are ranked high is because there is a likelihood of continued development simply by process of maturity. Rarer are the sort of players like Roy Hibbert who suck early but by dint of strength of will manage to continue to improve. To me one key element I look at in any two-year+ player is their improvement from year to year in areas in which they will likely need in the NBA. (Brandon Roy developing a jumper while increasing assists and reducing TOs for instance, reflects well on Victor Oladipo in my eyes).

Olynyk looks to be one of those rare heavy-workload players, with the added benefit of international play to keep him motivated in the offseason. Tough to know what his top-end may be if he continues to pound iron and work on low-post skills in big man camps and his radical offseason training. Michael Jordan had a wealth of talent but would never have reached his full potential if he hadn't has the blast-furnace intensity work ethic, Olynyk is a true 7 footer with drive and self-motivation, he's gonna continue to improve in the areas he'll need most.

[WizarDynasty]

YOu guys are seriously under estimating ADams intangibles. he has amazing intangibles for a bigman. High motor, the fight and passion in him is off the charts. Outstanding lower body control, scaps, looks for his team mates, sniffs the ball out on the boards like a blood hound. I see alot of Dennis Rodman in steven Adams. He is a top three pick people. No he isn't going to dominate immediately but he will fill and role but he is guaranteed to dominate with his intangibles.
You are going to wait many many many drafts before you find a bigman prospects with his complete set of intangibles, and I mean, Tim Duncan like long. We haven't seen a Duncan like player in nearly a decade and a half. Guys like Marc gasol and Tim Duncan scrappy fire players are invaluable Noah. Let Adams be our scrappy junk yard 7 foot dennis rodman.

Wait, I'm confused. Do these elite big men prospects that you speak of come every few years or once every 20 years? Because first it was so rare that the last guy who fit the profile was Duncan, but then all of a sudden we're also talking about Marc Gasol and Joakim Noah.

Also, what exactly do you mean by intangibles? And why are you so certain of the existence of these intangibles? Seems very counter-intuitive.

You say Adams is the rare 7 footer who is scrappy and can dominate with his complete set of intangibles (what does that even mean? LOL). I think what you're trying to say is a top notch rim protecting big man, who can also get a lot of rebounds, and score efficiently on the other end of the floor. I'm gonna take a second and list off a few current NBA players that I think fit this description, just so you understand that they aren't as uncommon and rare as you think.

1. Tim Duncan
2. Marc Gasol
3. Joakim Noah
4. Dwight Howard
5. Omer Asik
6. Larry Sanders
7. Roy Hibbert
8. Anthony Davis
9. Serge Ibaka
10. Andrew Bynum (when healthy)
11. Tyson Chandler
12. Kevin Garnett

I didn't even bother listing the guys who aren't as dominant defensively like Love, Cousins, Monroe, Griffin, etc. There's plenty of guys that are capable of doing what you're fantasizing about. You're right that these are all very very good players that are incredibly valuable to their teams, and it'd be nice to get one of them somehow, but it's not a once in a generation type deal. There's probably at least 1 dominant defensive big man in every single draft class.

Rim protector, dominant rebounder, with bare minimum of 400 FTA in 82 games actual, not per 36.

the 3 megastars on that list in their primes were kevin garnett, tim duncan, and dwight howard.

I am definitely projecting adams to be a star to superstar when he reaches his prime. 2.5 blocks per game, over 11 rebounds per game, and the guy is going to at least average 5 FTA per game--because he likes to initiate contact offensively and he doesn't have a major injury history so we should see alot of full 82 game seasons from him.

so 82*2.5==165 blocks best season
82 *11 boards per game=902 rebounds
FTA at 5 per game times 82= 410
He gets a 17.95 score. Anything over 15 is star in this league. If you get over 18 which he will be really close, you move to superstar status. If you get over 21 you are a mega star.

I have a score potential for asik of 16.36. He has that 9'4 standing reach, pretty but he isn't a rim protector. Not being a rim protector and not hitting 400 FTA for Asik tells me that its going to be very difficult for him to keep that score solid if another rebounder pops up on the team and starts yanking rebounds because he doesn't really do much else.

Code: Select all

Name   Status   Status   BestYr   FTA   Blks   REB   Off/82   Def/82   Hust.   Max A
Hakeem-   Star   Supstar   1988   652   282   1105   7.95   3.44   13.48   24.87
malone-   Star   Supstar   1988   918   70   853   11.20   0.85   10.40   22.45
shaq---   Star   Supstar   2000   972   204   940   11.85   2.49   11.46   25.80
cwebber   Star   Average   2000   461   118   777   5.62   1.44   9.48   16.54
v.baker   Star   Average   1996   526   86   804   6.41   1.05   9.80   17.27
r.walla   Avg-   Average   1999   331   107   566   4.04   1.30   6.90   12.24
K.garne   Star   Supstar   2004   549   112   1108   6.70   1.37   13.51   21.57
mcdyes-   Star   Average   1999   516   139   685   6.29   1.70   8.35   16.34
ratliff   Avg-   Average   1997   281   251   547   3.43   3.06   6.67   13.16
osterta   Avg-   Average   1996   205   152   565   2.50   1.85   6.89   11.24
Camby--   Avg-   Average   1996   264   130   394   3.22   1.59   4.80   9.61
E.Dampi   Star   Average   1997   399   139   715   4.87   1.70   8.72   15.28
j. onea   Star   Supstar   2002   510   178   796   6.22   2.17   9.71   18.10
ilgausk   Star   Average   2004   503   165   672   6.13   2.01   8.20   16.34
duncan-   Star   Supstar   2001   701   203   1042   8.55   2.48   12.71   23.73
Lafrent   Avg-   Average   2000   262   206   607   3.20   2.51   7.40   13.11
nestero   Avg-   Average   2003   114   165   633   1.39   2.01   7.72   11.12
odom---   Avg-   Average   2003   458   71   616   5.59   0.87   7.51   13.96
marion-   Avg-   Average   2005   298   137   710   3.63   1.67   8.66   13.96
kmart--   Avg-   Average   2002   392   70   640   4.78   0.85   7.80   13.44
magloi-   Star   Average   2003   470   101   847   5.73   1.23   10.33   17.29
p breze   Avg-   Average   2004   220   55   531   2.68   0.67   6.48   9.83
p gasol   Star   Supstar   2005   617   153   713   7.52   1.87   8.70   18.09
t chand   Star   Average   2004   336   141   775   4.10   1.72   9.45   15.27
randolp   Avg-   Average   2007   481   16   710   5.87   0.20   8.66   14.72
s dalem   Star   Average   2007   263   192   849   3.21   2.34   10.35   15.90
m okur-   Star   Average   2005   454   73   746   5.54   0.89   9.10   15.52
y ming-   Star   Average   2004   497   160   669   6.06   1.95   8.16   16.17
a stoud   Star   Supstar   2004   795   130   713   9.70   1.59   8.70   19.98
nene---   Avg-   Average   2009   416   82   627   5.07   1.00   7.65   13.72
c bos--   Star   Average   2008   617   77   771   7.52   0.94   9.40   17.87
c kaman   Avg-   Average   2009   307   94   704   3.74   1.15   8.59   13.48
dhoward   Star   Supstar   2010   916   186   1098   11.17   2.27   13.39   26.83
e okafo   Star   Average   2007   374   136   827   4.56   1.66   10.09   16.30
a jeffe   Star   Average   2007   394   119   911   4.80   1.45   11.11   17.37
a varej   Avg-   Average   2006   268   67   545   3.27   0.82   6.65   10.73
A bogut   Avg-   Average   2007   322   135   763   3.93   1.65   9.30   14.88
 abynum   Avg-   Average   2011   338   116   709   4.12   1.41   8.65   14.18
Aldrige   Star   Average   2010   444   94   709   5.41   1.15   8.65   15.21
horford   Avg-   Average   2009   270   91   799   3.29   1.11   9.74   14.15
noah---   Avg-   Average   2012   237   141   733   2.89   1.72   8.94   13.55
s hawes   Avg-   Average   2012   157   113   590   1.91   1.38   7.20   10.49
b lopez   Star   Average   2009   509   709   139   6.21   8.65   1.70   16.55
j mcgee   Avg-   Average   2010   230   232   634   2.80   2.83   7.73   13.37
r hibbe   Avg-   Average   2010   275   142   610   3.35   1.73   7.44   12.52
hickson   Avg-   Average   2010   247   54   695   3.01   0.66   8.48   12.15
djordan   Avg-   Average   2012   249   112   594   3.04   1.37   7.24   11.65
o asik-   Star   Average   2012   299   87   956   3.65   1.06   11.66   16.37
pekovic   Avg-   Average   2012   324   50   545   3.95   0.61   6.65   11.21
Ibaka--   Avg-   Average   2012   191   242   617   2.33   2.95   7.52   12.80
k koufo   Avg-   Average   2012   104   53   562   1.27   0.65   6.85   8.77
d favor   Avg-   Average   2012   260   130   546   3.17   1.59   6.66   11.41
d cous-   Avg-   Average   2012   423   55   746   5.16   0.67   9.10   14.93
gmonroe   Avg-   Average   2012   392   55   777   4.78   0.67   9.48   14.93
sanders   Avg-   Average   2012   136   201   672   1.66   2.45   8.20   12.30
ekanter   Avg-   Average   2012   117   32   304   1.43   0.39   3.71   5.52
vucevic   Avg-   Average   2012   126   79   917   1.54   0.96   11.18   13.68
biyomb-   Avg-   Average   2012   142   142   582   1.73   1.73   7.10   10.56
a davis   Avg-   Average   2012   225   112   522   2.74   1.37   6.37   10.48
drummon   Avg-   Average   2012   159   95   457   1.94   1.16   5.57   8.67
tzeller   Avg-   Average   2012   157   70   438   1.91   0.85   5.34   8.11
leonard   Avg-   Average   2012   89   38   255   1.09   0.46   3.11   4.66
booker-   Avg-   Average   2010   101   251   42   1.23   3.06   0.51   4.80
k love=   Star   Supstar   2010   424   28   1112   5.17   0.34   13.56   19.07
m gasol   Avg-   Average   2012   376   109   640   4.59   1.33   7.80   13.72
adams--   Star   Average   2013   410   160   902   5.00   1.95   11.00   17.95
Bennet-   Avg-   Average   2013   450   70   574   5.49   0.85   7.00   13.34


This table shows the each players best FTA year to date. High correlation to a players best year and Prime year offensively--most athletic years.

any bigman approaching 500 FTA is starting to display elite offensive ability. A projected hustle score over 11 is nice...13 is awesome. Over two blocks agame is special. Most championship bigman score over 18 during their best FTA year.