2012-13 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[HeartBreakKid]

How is Manu and JJ a wash? Manu isn't nearly the ball-stopper/ball-hog that JJ is, he's a much better passer, and he's a much more efficient scorer.

Manu was clearly better than JJ this year.

I meant to say at best it is a wash, since more people will be harsh against Manu due to him failing on the biggest stage.

Objectively speaking, Manu was better than JJ. No point in the season did I even think Joe Johnson was better than Manu, so I do agree with you.

[HeartBreakKid]

To be honest, you make some sound points dude.

Both Duncan and Lopez have their advantages on offense that would suit different teams in different situations. No question, Duncan is the better overall player though, with his rebounding, passing and defensive edge.

I guess what we're debating ultimately comes down to how a player is utilized by his team. I'd imagine Manu would do far worse (if that's possible) if he didn't play for the same team & coach for 10 years now and was just thrusted into a new environment like JJ. I know you know his postseason run was dreadful, and when his team needed him the most, this dude has failed beyond any tangible statistics (talking about Manu here)


I don't wanna turn this thread into a Nets vs. Spurs thing. I just think both Duncan and Parker warrant a place in the Top 5. I don't think anybody clearly produced more, helped more or executed better for their teams than those two, even though the Spurs were still awesome when they were missing some key guys.

Joe Johnson didn't suffer from being thrown into a new system though. Injuries was probably the biggest sly against him. But even in Atlanta, Joe Johnson showed the same tendencies. He's not a great isolation player, but he still isolates a lot - which isn't a good thing.

[Doctor MJ]

I remain kind of amazed the amount of time spent discussing Deron Williams compared to others. I don't object to the Deron discussion, but it would be good to see other stuff too.

As I said before, Deron isn't someone I was thinking of this year. We're discussing it because realbig is championing him, and fortunately he's doing a good job of it. Big picture, what we're talking about is whether Parker's only getting the edge over Deron because he's in a more fortunate situation.

I completely agree that it is acceptable to choose the less valuable player if you are convinced that he "dominates" the player comparison. What I mean by that is:

1) Does Player A do better in Player A's role than Player B would?
2) Would Player A do better in Player B's role than Player B did?
3) Would Player A on average do better in most scenarios than Player B would?

I can see someone believing this with Deron relative to Parker.

Some thoughts that I would bring up though:

1) With all the complaints about Johnson, we should remember that Deron's playing with Johnson because he wanted to play with Johnson. This was an absolutely WTF moment for me when it came out that Deron saw the Johnson acquisition as something that made the Nets serious. We can debate about what we really know, but when the team acquired Johnson, were I Deron, I'd have been out the door.

I don't blame people for ignoring something like this in this project, but I can't make myself do it. Had I been able to, then taking that reasoning to its logical conclusion, LeBron would have been my POY choice in '10-11 almost as a given. That might not seem like I'm saying much, and I suppose I could elaborate, but sufficed to say I didn't pick LeBron that year.

2) While Deron not only played better at year's end, but finished with strong stats at year's end, his struggles earlier on where unquestionable and significant:

I'm a system player, and I loved Coach (Jerry) Sloan's system. I loved the offense there.

3) That statement might not seem very meaningful to other, but while I've never had a problem with putting Deron up as a top tier point guard, the fact is that Deron developed his reputation while putting up 20/10-ish numbers on offenses that were at times the best in the league...in Sloan's system...with APM numbers that pretty much always lagged behind what we would expect.

I don't use this to damn Deron, but neither do I really gasp when Parker gets elevated ahead of him. This isn't Chris Paul we're talking about.

4) I believe realbig made a statement about Pop's system being ideal for a point guard. I consider that a statement with some truth but also potentially very misleading. Very clearly Pop's system enables players to slot in and do very effective work...but it's never been one where his guards have put up big volume numbers. All this relates to the bigger issue that it seems INCREDIBLY difficult to rate the quality of any Spur players at this point.

It wouldn't shock me if Deron could do more on the Spurs than Parker...but I also think it's really easy to undersell all that Parker brings to the table, and part of what he brings to the table is excelling in a situations where he is NOT given as much control as some other point guards are given.

[ElGee]

Well, I've decided that Tony Parker's defense is underrated. He's not a standout, but he does some things defensively that impressed me in the playoffs. Namely, he's savvy handling screen and roll defense and he's smart with his position, very solid with his rotations. This means he can be put on good defensive teams (eg his own) and play well. Then I go check his on/off splits, and again (jibing with past RAPM) the team is better defensively with him on the court. Just a small data point, but I think if you watch Parker work on defense you'll find a neutral practitioner...which is relevant since we are so far down the bell curve for 4th and 5th place here.

Offensively, there's no doubt Parker is an elite one-on-one player. This was evident in the Finals when he would absolutely destroy everyone not wearing number 6 for Miami when matched up with him in the craftiest damn ways. He takes guys to the post even, and as we know is just about the best scorer in the middle of the lane in the league.

His offensive value extends beyond that though and is somewhat complicated to evaluate because Pop's system is so good. (Yes, I'm officially convinced Pop is the most valuable Spur.) The Spurs run non-stop action and they love having the big screen for TP or Manu (and sometimes guys like Neal because they are so darn active). This gives TP a platter to serve his jitterbug quickness on, and he creates for others well out of this because of the pressure he puts on the defense by getting into the lane. The constant screening allows him to just keep attacking because defenses have to worry about covering the 3-point shooters and handling the screeners (Pop is a genius)...But he's not a brilliant passer, which somewhat limits his value in this regard. Overall, I think he's a good +3 offensive player, which puts him right in the discussion and line with Williams.

Incidentally, I have Williams as being a better offensive player for many of the reasons realbig3 has outlined. I'm just no longer convinced that he's better defensively! I see bad habits from D-Will there, and if people disagree I'd love a breakdown or some video evidence. If I get around to it, I'll do Duncan and Curry since those are the other 2 I'm strongly considering. (FTR, I have Carmelo at +3 this year, but his low portability and missed time push him to the back of this pack.)

[HeartBreakKid]

I think I'm sold by RealBigs argument on D-Will over Parker.

TBH, I thought Parker deserved top ten consideration even last year, and thought he was really underrated. This year, he seems to be getting his due.

Maybe Parker is just a "system" PG, but that's what PGs are supposed to do - run systems. Popovich is the director, and Parker is the cinematographer laying out his vision. Gotta give Parker credit for that. Regardless, Parker is prob a top ten even if D-Will is objectively better.

[TheChosen618]

I think there is a different debate here.

I think Deron is probably a better PG/player than Parker, BUT I don't think he had a better season which is what we're talking about. Deron had a really slow start to the season and wasn't even looking like a 10 PG at one point. Parker on the other hand at one point was an MVP candidate and was looking like a runner up before he got injured.

I'm assuming in this project, we are erasing all past seasons and just solely focusing on this one. In that case, I don't see a debate for Deron, who had a rough start to the season and then got ousted in the 1st round.

Also, Doctor MJ, when is the actual voting going to start?

[Doctor MJ]

Also, Doctor MJ, when is the actual voting going to start?

Now.

[HeartBreakKid]

I have a hard time saying other people have better seasons when I don't think they're better players that season. It just feels strange to me D:

[sp6r=underrated]

can't resist

We all saw how good the Spurs offense is and is predicated on ball movement, player movement, and PnRs, which is exactly what a great PG needs. I think Deron would do GREAT in that kind of offense, that plays exactly to his strengths. . . until he gets the coach fired

[Joao Saraiva]

I was just on the voting thread to read it and I can't help but notice that the Spurs players don't go too much into a lot of top 5.

Do you guys really believe it was Pop? His work? Are Parker and Duncan not worthy? How can they even be behind Paul George in some cases?

Also saw some voting for Kobe. Well he had indeed a great stat sheet overall, but combining stats with wins, defense and team success, can he really make top 5?
LeBron, Durant, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Chris Paul, Tony Parker should all be ahead of Kobe. You can't have that team like the Lakers and almost miss the playoffs, it's just embarassing!

[Joao Saraiva]

I think there is a different debate here.

I think Deron is probably a better PG/player than Parker, BUT I don't think he had a better season which is what we're talking about. Deron had a really slow start to the season and wasn't even looking like a 10 PG at one point. Parker on the other hand at one point was an MVP candidate and was looking like a runner up before he got injured.

I'm assuming in this project, we are erasing all past seasons and just solely focusing on this one. In that case, I don't see a debate for Deron, who had a rough start to the season and then got ousted in the 1st round.

Also, Doctor MJ, when is the actual voting going to start?

Completely agree with you in the D Will vs Parker debate. Also losing against injured Bulls in the 1st round doesn't help.