Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

[doclinkin]

I love this time of year. This is when Wiz fans are at their best. Tightly worded arguments, tortured rationalizations, loopy plyometric neophrenology, coprocephalic assheadery. When it comes to the regular season the Wizards may be mediocre at best, and we fans respond accordingly, but when it comes to the offseason we're topshelf. Hope is the drug of choice.

I like it so much I'm also gonna post it in the happy thoughts thread.

[hands11]

Hell, if Bennett's physical profile was like Drummond's we might be having a slightly different conversation here.

Yep, his flaws would be easier to overlook if he was 6'10. But he's not.

EDIT: And actually his size would be easier to overlook if he played defense. But he doesn't.

Ba dump.

[hands11]

I believe a circular discourse is going on. Porter or Bennett seems to be almost groupthink. I don't think either is the best pick by such a wide margin that they are all that is being discussed.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ter-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ett-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... nyk-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ler-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ers-1.html

It i were GM i'd trade down for Olynyk and also try to acquire Ilyasova or Derrick Williams plus another pick. With that pick I would select Wolters.

I think Zeller is a much better pick than Bennett.

I don't have any problem with Porter as the pick but I think he takes away Webster and Ariza from established, effective roles.

Kelly O is about as bad at defense as Bennett is. Personally, I want neither.

[hands11]

I don't have any problem with Porter as the pick but I think he takes away Webster and Ariza from established, effective roles.

I just don't believe you can make decisions in a vacuum like that, especially with a high draft pick. Webster is a UFA. Regardless of what's been said, it's no lock he'd be back next season. Secondly, he was a minimum FA signing last season. He's not irreplaceable and coming off a career year it's no guarantee he'd duplicate that performance in the future or even stay healthy considering his injury plagued career.

Ariza is an expiring contract and is best served coming off the bench.

There's certainly room to draft a long term option at the 3 when the future of the position is unsettled to begin with.

Not true. If I was the GM, I would have had that talk with him already. I would have worked out the guidelines of a deal and if Webster said he would be here, I would trust that. I'm sure they had that talk. What we don't know is what the answer was. My guess is they have come to an agreement already. Webster has spoken that way. EG even recently said something that way.

I would be very very surprised if Webster was not on the team next year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Absurd on its face.

I've noted Bennett's weight gain, I've noted Bennett's issues on D, I've noted the small sample size as a positive and a negative, I've even done a game by game log of his inconsistencies in terms of productivity (really was erratic in conference play in particular), I also harped on the idiotic tweet he sent out about sleeping in till the afternoon when he's supposedly marketing himself, even if injured, for GM's and scouts. No evidence available he has the work rate, habits, or high level BBIQ as Porter (though to be sure, there is no clear indictment either).

Vast majority of Porter boosters are basically shredding Bennett, a few making up things out of whole cloth as they do so, while completely ignoring his positives, and cherry picking scouting reports and videos.

I don't see sfam doing that, I don't see me doing that, and McQueen has been balanced with Bennett discussing plenty of his flaws as well (though he has multiple fav players). Ditto dczards.

As I've already said, I love Porter's work rate, I love his BBIQ, I think he'd be in keeping w/what we're already building which is a highly intelligent, fundamentally sound team that consistently makes the right decisions with and without the ball. Very coachable, great length. Will have a role and will do it well. Great work habits suggest whatever potential he has, will be reached. Cannot say the same about Bennett as there is no evidence for or against it to this point, other than spotty D track record.

The issue in the final analysis, is that I err towards the player with elite skill(s) that would be elite on the next level, and athleticism, over the player with lesser versions of both qualities but higher work rate/BBIQ (I recognize that you don't believe Bennett has skills that would be elite at the next level in part because of the tweener issue and no reliable comps going back decade(s) ). I'll basically always take the player with 2 of the 3 qualities, rather than 1, even if the 1, pushes up the floor because I'm aimed at the ceiling angle rather than the floor. The only times a player with only the work rate/BBIQ box against another prospect in an eval turns out better is generally when he was misevaluated in terms of the former two traits, which does happen, and could be the case with Porter (which is why I fluctuate between Bennett, and Oladipo, and would not be super upset with Porter).

In reality I don't give a rats ass who's analysis is fair & balanced. This isn't cable news. It's about finding the right fit & determining who's going to be the correct choice. I may not sound very balanced now but for the majority of the year I kept a completely open mind about Bennett. I didn't even really comment on him until I watched him thoroughly. My opinion is based on what I've analyzed. With my argumentative nature, what I believe certainly may come across as very opinionated and even irritate some folks, so be it. At 38, if I haven't changed by now, I'm probably not going to.

And after watching Bennett over the past season, I feel pretty locked into where I'm at. I scouted him multiple times to see if I was missing something. But this goes for everyone. I don't have any preconceived notions about players when I initially scout them. I wasn't always an Olynyk fan, but the more I saw, the more I like. I was very high on Zeller in the draft process last season and cooled on him early this season but when I re-evaluated after the college season was over, I softened my stance and now consider him one of the five best prospects in this draft. So it's not like I'm inflexible or I don't second guess my own opinions.

But this nonsense about "airbrushing flaws" or suggesting that I'm being disingenuous about the things I say rubs me the wrong way because that's absolutely not the case. I think I do a fair job of qualifying my statements with reasoned arguments and facts. You certainly don't have to agree with me but trying to minimize my position by suggesting the above is plain wrong.

We agree.

Olynyk is a very good player who also is a very good fit for the Wizards.

Bennett is more ball dominant, not really a great post scorer, and he frequently mails it in on defense. Bennett can have a good defensive rating like Boozer does with Chicago. He's talented, but a low motor player until he gets the ball.

Zeller would have been a top-5 pick last season. He might have gone even before Beal. He helped beat Anthony Davis and Kentucky. He is athletic, highly-skilled, but does not like contact. He was not allowed to shoot threes at IU, but I suspect he can make them. He fits the mold of Pau Gasol.

Olynyk seems to have mastered reading defenses and taking what he's given. He will function well inside or out on offense.

Alex Len is the X-factor. There is nothing wrong with him outside of the top-5 or so, but patience will be needed if he is the pick.

I think he will be the pick. Not Porter. Just a guess.,

[TGW]

CCJ, I absolutely agree with everything you said (although I'm not a fan of Zeller at all, and I don't think he has the measurements of a Gasol, who has very long arms).

Olynyk is going to be a very good player...his jumpshot his money and his IQ is excellent. He plays winning basketball.

Len is going to be the pick if he's there, even if Porter is available. The reason is because the Wizards FO loves Webster and they like Ariza as his backup. Ernie's kids are now an afterthought. They want a young 7 footer to groom, since there are no players above 6'11 on the team. This is how Ernie thinks...he's a very linear thinker. He needs outside shooting, so he drafts Beal. He wanted athleticism so he drafts Vesely. This year, I think he just wants size, and Len is the best mix of height/skill/athletic ability available at our spot.

So Len is the pick. Not my first choice at all, but that's what I think Grunfeld is going to do. I hope you guys are ready to be pissed tomorrow.

[The Consiglieri]

I love this time of year. This is when Wiz fans are at their best. Tightly worded arguments, tortured rationalizations, loopy plyometric neophrenology, coprocephalic assheadery. When it comes to the regular season the Wizards may be mediocre at best, and we fans respond accordingly, but when it comes to the offseason we're topshelf. Hope is the drug of choice.

I like it so much I'm also gonna post it in the happy thoughts thread.

I think I may resemble a few of those words, the one's I can spell anyway

[hands11]

I believe a circular discourse is going on.

You don't say! That almost never happens here. On an unrelated note, I wonder what people think about trading Rashard Lewis and a 2nd round pick for Okafor and Ariza.

It i were GM i'd trade down for Olynyk and also try to acquire Ilyasova or Derrick Williams plus another pick. With that pick I would select Wolters.

I think Zeller is a much better pick than Bennett.

I don't have any problem with Porter as the pick but I think he takes away Webster and Ariza from established, effective roles.

This is the first I have heard of any of this! Tell me more....



Less than 33 hours, my friends.....

Ok, totally knew thought to get us through till tomorrow.

Trade down for Mason Plumlee. Thats the deal we have been over looked the entire time.

Man, Gobert really fell like a rock. From 10th a month ago to 23rd.
Dieng has dropped from 20 to 25
Withey from 22 to 28

PIERRE JACKSON BREAKS INTO THE FIRST ROUND MOCK ON DRAFTX

Hands11 takes a

[mhd]

I support the trade down with Minny (Ves+#3 for Williams+9+26). Take Steven Adams at 9 (I think Zeller goes to Sac at 7). THEN, trade up for Shabaaz (using #26, Booker, Singleton, and the 2nd rounders as incentives).

NEW LINEUP:

PG: Wall/Price
SG: Beal/Shabaaz
SF: Webster/Ariza
PF: Nene/Williams
C: Emeka/Seraphin/Adams

[Knighthonor]

I don't have any problem with Porter as the pick but I think he takes away Webster and Ariza from established, effective roles.

I just don't believe you can make decisions in a vacuum like that, especially with a high draft pick. Webster is a UFA. Regardless of what's been said, it's no lock he'd be back next season. Secondly, he was a minimum FA signing last season. He's not irreplaceable and coming off a career year it's no guarantee he'd duplicate that performance in the future or even stay healthy considering his injury plagued career.

Ariza is an expiring contract and is best served coming off the bench.

There's certainly room to draft a long term option at the 3 when the future of the position is unsettled to begin with.

Not true. If I was the GM, I would have had that talk with him already. I would have worked out the guidelines of a deal and if Webster said he would be here, I would trust that. I'm sure they had that talk. What we don't know is what the answer was. My guess is they have come to an agreement already. Webster has spoken that way. EG even recently said something that way.

I would be very very surprised if Webster was no on the team next year.

larry Huges

[The Consiglieri]

CCJ, I absolutely agree with everything you said (although I'm not a fan of Zeller at all, and I don't think he has the measurements of a Gasol, who has very long arms).

Olynyk is going to be a very good player...his jumpshot his money and his IQ is excellent. He plays winning basketball.

Len is going to be the pick if he's there, even if Porter is available. The reason is because the Wizards FO loves Webster and they like Ariza as his backup. Ernie's kids are now an afterthought. They want a young 7 footer to groom, since there are no players above 6'11 on the team. This is how Ernie thinks...he's a very linear thinker. He needs outside shooting, so he drafts Beal. He wanted athleticism so he drafts Vesely. This year, I think he just wants size, and Len is the best mix of height/skill/athletic ability available at our spot.

So Len is the pick. Not my first choice at all, but that's what I think Grunfeld is going to do. I hope you guys are ready to be pissed tomorrow.

It would not surprise me, though it wouldn't piss me off, it would more just worry me.

Another poster came up with a good theme that would be fun for all of us to do:

I'm ecstatic if we get....Noel

I'm happy if we get....Bennett or Oladipo, or trade down w/the Wolves

I can accept...Porter

I'm curious and concerned if...we pick Len

I'm pissed if...we take Zeller at 3.

[The Consiglieri]

I hear Plumlee is falling like a rock, and for good reason.

[hands11]

Consiglieri, you do realize that Otto tested better than Kawhi athletically in every category save the 3/4 court sprint, right?

Zeller tested through the roof too. Sometimes athleticism shows up on the court, but not on the tests, sometimes it shows up in the tests but not on the court. The ability to apply athletic gifts to the field of play matters every bit as much as the presence of said athleticism. I saw Leonard's athleticism at San Diego State, and in the NBA. I didn't see Barnes EVER at UNC, nor Zeller's at Indiana, nor Otto's at Georgetown. Could be system, could be player. There are limits to pure numbers based analysis as well as the eye test. Again, if this were easy and as simple as plugging in numbers, or plugging in eye test interpretations, GM's would never get fired, and the draft would be cake, and not as difficult and as fraught with problems as it is.

I think Burke is going to be the most overlooked top pick in the draft. The way he keeps his dribble alive and changes speeds are polished NBA skills. And he is a leader. Those skills will translate well to the NBA. And no packed zones will open the floor for him.

[Mizerooskie]

I think guys who seem overzealous in their arguments against Bennett do so because his supporters simply dismiss the numerous issues that are waged against him instead of actually addressing it.

Injury prone? " No comment "
Lack of defensive effort? " But did the coach even ask him to play D? "
Gained twenty pounds despite having two fully functional legs? " He doesn't have time to stay in shape due to flying around for interviews"

With Porter, guys tell me he's unathletic compared to Kawhi and we post the numbers saying differently. People say he has limited upside offensively, we point to player similarities in Kawhi and Tayshaun that were huge parts of NBA finals or playoff teams.

There's a lot of dismissive, I hope type defensive argument in support of Bennett.

Work habits and defensive assignments are teachable and coachable. That's why they're dismissed. Mental maturation is natural to expect from a 20 year old.

Athleticism and talent aren't coachable.

The crux of the argument is raw talent vs. polished maturity. Do you want a more finished product or greater upside?

We might as well just shut down the thread then if we aren't allowed to analyze prospects based on anything besides athleticism and "raw talent" since literally every aspect of basketball besides those things are teachable.

Lets just trade our pick by 10 second rounders and coach them up.

Newsflash bro, defense is a skill that has to be honed from day 1 just like dribbling and shooting. If you didn't show any skill at it against inferior competition then you will look far far worse against significantly better comp in the pros.

What does this post even mean? The Porter vs. Bennett debate is quite clearly polish vs. upside. Why is that so hard to grasp?

I never said you weren't allowed to analyze prospects on anything other than talent. I simply gave justification for why the weaknesses you cited for Bennett were glossed over. By all accounts, he's a good kid who shows up for practice, gets along with teammates, and has his head on straight. He apparently let his work habits slip if the stories of his weight gain aren't exaggerated. It happens. I personally don't think it's much of an issue at all when evaluating a 20 year old kid.

Defense doesn't have to be honed from day 1. If it were, there wouldn't be so many top prospects that are completely lost on the defensive end. It can be vastly, vastly improved and for many of these kids, the first time they've ever had to play defense was in college. It's typically the aspect of a young NBA player's game that grows the most

And the '10 second rounders' comment makes no sense. You're implying that I said talent could be taught, which I clearly didn't. I indicated the opposite, in fact.

I'd be fine with either one of Bennett and Porter. I feel the need to defend and support Bennett because I tend to prefer upside picks, and because he's being unreasonably eviscerated on here.

[truwizfan4evr]

With the third pick of the nba draft the Washington wizards selects........Otto Porter

[hands11]

According for Ford the Bobcats GM is pushing hard for Zeller but is getting a lot of resistance.

Rich Cho is a numbers guy, so that doesn't surprise. I bet Cho wants Zeller/Dipo and MJ's pushing for Len and Bennett.

Thing is, it won't matter. None of them are good enough by themselves to get that team over the hump.

They would need Zeller and Dipo

[Mizerooskie]

Have we gotten any updated measurements on Bennett? I know the assumption is that he's a tweener based on some older measurements, but is it still true?

I heard both 6'5" and 6'6" w/o shoes. 6'7" with. And his playing weight was 240ish. Now he's 260 cus he likes to eat.

Is it documented, or is it still people going off of two year old numbers from a skills academy?

[GhostsOfGil]

It would not surprise me, though it wouldn't piss me off, it would more just worry me.

Another poster came up with a good theme that would be fun for all of us to do:

I'm ecstatic if we get....Noel

I'm happy if we get....Bennett or Oladipo, or trade down w/the Wolves

I can accept...Porter

I'm curious and concerned if...we pick Len

I'm pissed if...we take Zeller at 3.

Agree 100% with this. This is exactly how I feel although I would be happy if we traded down and used the pick on Zeller.

[Wizardspride]

CCJ, I absolutely agree with everything you said (although I'm not a fan of Zeller at all, and I don't think he has the measurements of a Gasol, who has very long arms).

Olynyk is going to be a very good player...his jumpshot his money and his IQ is excellent. He plays winning basketball.

Len is going to be the pick if he's there, even if Porter is available. The reason is because the Wizards FO loves Webster and they like Ariza as his backup. Ernie's kids are now an afterthought. They want a young 7 footer to groom, since there are no players above 6'11 on the team. This is how Ernie thinks...he's a very linear thinker. He needs outside shooting, so he drafts Beal. He wanted athleticism so he drafts Vesely. This year, I think he just wants size, and Len is the best mix of height/skill/athletic ability available at our spot.

So Len is the pick. Not my first choice at all, but that's what I think Grunfeld is going to do. I hope you guys are ready to be pissed tomorrow.

Personally, I'll be ecstatic.....

[W. Unseld]

Did anyone see this article that shows the per rating against elite competition? I'm certainly not suggesting him anywhere near 3 but I'm shocked at how well the Gonzaga guy did:
http://t.basketball.realgm.com/realgm/# ... d9d0eacc72