Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

[fishercob]

D-DAY

[queridiculo]

Put up yesterday, Len's matchup with Noel in the Kentucky vs. Maryland game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfXSZyUzg0

[AFM]

D-DAY INDEED

70% chance they take Porter
30% it's Bennett

[hands11]

Honestly, I just want get out of this thing without screwing anything up.

Just pick Otto if you can.

They should buy that late first and get Dieng or Withey, then they can follow up with Wolters

Or get Pierre and add Colton Iverson or Jackie Carmichael

Pick up Ryan Kelly with the 2nd 2nd

Wall/Wolters
Beal/Temple/Webster
Webster/Otto/Trevor A
Nene/Ves/Trevor A
Oakfor/Kevin S, Deign or Withey

Singleton, Kelly, Booker

That would address all their off season needs.

3rd guard that with ball handling and scoring that can play PG and SG
Defensive back up center that's long
S4

And Ves and Kevin have the openings they need to prove themselves in their final prove it year. They drafted Ves #6. Give him a vote of confidence and the inside track to be the back up PF. Prove it or lose it in the off season. Give him something to shoot for. Booker is inactive where he can stay healthy. Kelly to DL where he can get in shape. And Singleton for whatever he does while inactive. They can look to use in as filler in any future trades.

If Nene gets injured and Kevin and Ves can't step in, you move Trevor A there more and look for other answers in trades, FA, etc. Maybe AJ is walking the streets and you pick him up to help at PF if need. Maybe Ryan Kelly steps up. Maybe Kevin S is looking good. And you have Booker resting healthy. There are options at back up PF.

Otto, Trevor A, Ves, Kevin can mix and match at PF and Center till you find out what line ups work and who is playing well.

Dieng or Withey are in the wings for when you need more length. You can bring them along slowly.

That put them in a good position to make moves to make the team better moving forward as they figure more out about what they have and what they need. Trevor A leaves at some points. Then you re-evaluate needs. They team is still very young but its mature with much better depth and skills.

Otto, Wolters, Dieng or Withey, Ryan are all mature coachable young men, some are seniors, so even though they added more rookies, they will advance the teams talent and maturity. And you know what you get in all of them. You added 4 rookies but really only Otto and Wolter are going to see minutes right away.

If they did this, I would do back flips.

[doclinkin]

Put up yesterday, Len's matchup with Noel in the Kentucky vs. Maryland game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfXSZyUzg0

Yep. This game and a handful of others are what had me thinking Len needs only to realize his strength as he begins to add muscle and the aggression in the post will follow. He contests well with his body and arms, as he gets stronger he will understand he can bully smaller players and need not stop and pop on the interior, simply catch it high and go over or through the defender.

Recall he just added the 30 pounds, isn't used to it yet, when he was lighter it was easier to undercut him and knock him off that high center of gravity, uproot him or tip him over. But as he gets bigger he'll learn he can shove people around or ignore them. Playing on a broken foot for half the year explains some of the games where he showed up softer in the interior and showed slower than usual footspeed at times. It also displays desire, work ethic, and the toughness that some have questioned about him

I have no problem with Len as our pick.

[Ruzious]

Honestly, I just want get out of this thing without screwing anything up.

Just pick Otto if you can.

They should buy that late first and get Dieng or Withey, then they can follow up with Wolters

Or get Pierre and add Colton Iverson or Jackie Carmichael

Pick of Ryan Kelly with the 2nd 2nd

Wall/Wolters
Beal/Temple/Webster
Webster/Otto/Trevor A
Nene/Ves/Kevin S
Oakfor/Kevin S, Deign or Withey

Singleton, Kelly, Booker

Maybe you luck out and Trevor A decides he doesn't want to ride the bench and opts out freeing up 7M dollars. If not, he is available also as your S4

That would free up 7.5 mil for Ted's wallet, but it really wouldn't free up room to spend this year, because they're over the cap, so they have the MLE. Trevor A leaving might (or might not) put them a bit under the cap - but not by more than the MLE. And you can only use one or the other - the MLE or cap room. Anyway, it was reported a day or 2 ago that TrevA has notified the Wiz he's not opting out.

[hands11]

Honestly, I just want get out of this thing without screwing anything up.

Just pick Otto if you can.

They should buy that late first and get Dieng or Withey, then they can follow up with Wolters

Or get Pierre and add Colton Iverson or Jackie Carmichael

Pick of Ryan Kelly with the 2nd 2nd

Wall/Wolters
Beal/Temple/Webster
Webster/Otto/Trevor A
Nene/Ves/Kevin S
Oakfor/Kevin S, Deign or Withey

Singleton, Kelly, Booker

Maybe you luck out and Trevor A decides he doesn't want to ride the bench and opts out freeing up 7M dollars. If not, he is available also as your S4

That would free up 7.5 mil for Ted's wallet, but it really wouldn't free up room to spend this year, because they're over the cap, so they have the MLE. Trevor A leaving might (or might not) put them a bit under the cap - but not by more than the MLE. And you can only use one or the other - the MLE or cap room. Anyway, it was reported a day or 2 ago that TrevA has notified the Wiz he's not opting out.

Yeah I know it doesn't help the cap but that doesn't really matter since I don't have them bringing in any FAs except maybe AJ at vet min which they can do. Trevor A leaving isn't important. Actually, I hope he stays because it adds more flexibility to the options since he can play some S4 plus he can help teach Otto. If he did leave and it saved Ted some money, so be it. He is still paying Dray dead money. The sooner we get out of that situation cleaned up, the sooner he might look at buying a DL team. 7M/8M a year on Dray is not chump change. They are on the books for him until 2014/15. Hopefully Dray gets a new contact that help lessen that some.

Once they get Dray off the payroll, that will be the last of cleaning up the mess that was Gil, Dray, McGee, Nick and the gun gate blow up rebuild.

[stevemcqueen1]

Put up yesterday, Len's matchup with Noel in the Kentucky vs. Maryland game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfXSZyUzg0

Ugh, neither of them looked especially good. There were definite flashes, moments of shocking athleticism. But between Noel's shaky touch and weak base and Len's general lack of awareness and feel for the game, you've got some issues.

Just off of that video, that performance was hardly Len dominating Noel like everyone thought. I thought I remembered a lot more of his production coming directly against Noel but it must have been against Cauley-Stein.

[Dat2U]

Put up yesterday, Len's matchup with Noel in the Kentucky vs. Maryland game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfXSZyUzg0

Yep. This game and a handful of others are what had me thinking Len needs only to realize his strength as he begins to add muscle and the aggression in the post will follow. He contests well with his body and arms, as he gets stronger he will understand he can bully smaller players and need not stop and pop on the interior, simply catch it high and go over or through the defender.

Recall he just added the 30 pounds, isn't used to it yet, when he was lighter it was easier to undercut him and knock him off that high center of gravity, uproot him or tip him over. But as he gets bigger he'll learn he can shove people around or ignore them. Playing on a broken foot for half the year explains some of the games where he showed up softer in the interior and showed slower than usual footspeed at times. It also displays desire, work ethic, and the toughness that some have questioned about him

I have no problem with Len as our pick.

I'd have been happy if Len was the pick at #8. #3 is a little too high for him, mainly because I'm concerned about the foot issue because that can linger but all things being equal, I think Len will be solid in time.

[fishercob]

A month or so ago, I was beating the Len drum, not at all convinced that he wasn't a better prospect than Noel. Now, I'm not quite so bullish. I'm given pause by the fact that he just wasnt all that productive, and none of the advanced metrics (from YODA, to Pelton WARP stuff, etc) are all that high on him. I get the "he had terrible guards and wasn't used right" thing, but you'd think he'd shine through all of that.

I did find out that he's taking 6 credits right now, basically as a favor to Maryland so doesn't negatively affect their graduation numbers. Pretty cool move, no? And I know he showed up not knowing a word of English and now he's fluent. That stuff is great -- and maybe it means he's a high character guy and a tireless worker. Or maybe it just means he's really nice and has a proclivity for language.

I can see him as the next Hibbert or Marc Gasol, and I can see him as the next Jake Tsakalidis or Michael Olowakandi. If we take him, I will talk myself into the former, because that's what I do.

[stevemcqueen1]

If we pick Len, I'm going to have to spend the entire summer talking myself into him. The foot issue is a concern. But my biggest concern is his low basketball IQ. He doesn't have natural scoring instincts and he doesn't anticipate the game well on defense. He is less than the sum of his parts.

- Superior athlete with great feet but he doesn't run the floor and score in transition. .4 transition possessions per game is negligible.

- Gets the largest part of his offense from post ups but scores only .82 PPP on post ups, which makes him one of the least efficient Cs in the class despite having a good FT rate. He doesn't have a great feel here, he has a collection of good post moves but he makes the wrong choices with the ball, pivoting into difficult shots, and he's got a weak off hand.

- Has this great jumper supposedly, but shot it just under once a game and made just 28.1% of them. And he only shot 68% from the FT line and his TS% is 14th of the 19 Cs in the class. Again, he's making the wrong decisions, pulling up out of rhythm or when he should be driving, he's choosing the worse shot too often. Plus judging from his FT %, I think his shot isn't as good as people think.

- He's got the worst steals rate of any C in the class, giving evidence of his poor hands and awareness.

- He's one of the biggest players in the class and got shoved around by much smaller players, like James Michael McAdoo. Where is all of that strength he put on? He also finished just 11th of 19 in rebounding.

- Shotblocking is supposed to be a strength but he doesn't stand out here either, finishing 11th of 19 in pace adjusted BPG.

- People give him a pass for poor guard play keeping him from having an impact but he still finished 6th in usage among C's. Why don't Nerlens Noel and Anthony Bennett get a similar pass for having poor guards who were shoot first guys?

All of it comes down to him having a poor feel for the game IMO. And that's a bad thing for a big man. He's got all of these individual skills he's developed, great size, great athleticism, a great personality and great work ethic. But he's just not a great basketball player.

I'd rather take Zeller under all circumstances and I know Zeller will be there at three. So if I were the GM, I wouldn't draft Len unless he made it to my next pick.

[stevemcqueen1]

A month or so ago, I was beating the Len drum, not at all convinced that he wasn't a better prospect than Noel. Now, I'm not quite so bullish. I'm given pause by the fact that he just wasnt all that productive, and none of the advanced metrics (from YODA, to Pelton WARP stuff, etc) are all that high on him. I get the "he had terrible guards and wasn't used right" thing, but you'd think he'd shine through all of that.

I did find out that he's taking 6 credits right now, basically as a favor to Maryland so doesn't negatively affect their graduation numbers. Pretty cool move, no? And I know he showed up not knowing a word of English and now he's fluent. That stuff is great -- and maybe it means he's a high character guy and a tireless worker. Or maybe it just means he's really nice and has a proclivity for language.

I can see him as the next Hibbert or Marc Gasol, and I can see him as the next Jake Tsakalidis or Michael Olowakandi. If we take him, I will talk myself into the former, because that's what I do.

Well, I think he is a really great kid and a tireless worker. I just think he doesn't have a natural basketball instincts.

Maybe he can develop a great feel for the game over time. You know that, if he doesn't, it won't be from a lack of effort.

I'm just not convinced that it's something you can turn from a negative into a positive at this stage. I feel like it's something you have or you don't.

But if I'm wrong and he does, then yeah, he could be a great player.

[closg00]

I'll be very surprised if Porter is not the pick (if available and Noel is gone) I do worry that the influx of 7 footers will be scattered amongst our competitors at a time when Okafor is expiring, and Nene is in-decline. Our front court depth is scary.

[stevemcqueen1]

My draft day board*:

1.) Noel
2.) Porter
3.) Bennett
4.) Zeller

- Trade McLemore or Dipo if they're there and another team comes calling.



* I reserve the right to change this board in the future if hindsight makes it look stupid.

[Rafael122]

I've taken a few tums the last few days. It sucks that Cleveland basically controls this draft right now and they kinda controlled it last year when they were rumored to jump ahead of us to take Beal.

[GhostsOfGil]

Funny quote from TAI about Porter:

JOHN CONVERSE TOWNSEND

Otto Porter – F, Georgetown

Imagine you’re at a speed-dating event. You make your rounds, but no one really excites you. There was one girl, however, who did catch your attention. We’ll call her Portia (oddly pronounced “Otto Porter”).

What was it about her? The Georgetown education? Possibly. Maybe it was because you were certain you’d seen her around the city … somewhere, sometime. Most likely it was the fact that her mother, Joan (pronounced “John Thompson III”), was hovering behind her, interjecting into your conversation with things like “Marry her!” and “She’s perfect for you, man” and “Can’t you see that she’s the most eligible bachelerotte here?”

Joan freaked you out a bit, but perhaps she was right. You were lonely and it was summer and it seemed like all of your friends were getting married.

It could work out, you tell yourself. Portia did have long legs and while boring, awkward and homely, she wasn’t a total buzz kill.

So, you swap digits and find out she lives a few block from your place. You date for a bit and, after a few months, you decide to get hitched. Joan finds out—she’s thrilled, of course. Portia is excited. You’re nervous, but in the week leading up to the big day, you successfully convince yourself that marrying Portia is something you need to do.

The wedding goes smoothly. The marriage … well, it has its ups and downs. You don’t have any major complaints, but you just can’t shake the feeling that you made the wrong decision.

Fin.

[wake20]

Looks like the Magic-Clippers deal is off for now. That could be a smokescreen, but Burke is in play for Orlando I'd think if Bledsoe isn't coming over and Noel goes #1.

(1) Draft Oladipo. I'm convinced he's the best player in this draft. F needs. You figure that out later.

(2) Draft Oladipo and see who's available at 9 when MIN is up. If someone we like falls (Bennett, Porter, Len, McLemore, McCollum), pull the trigger on the DWill/9/26 trade.

(3) Draft Porter. It fits in a lot of ways and I want the solid role player for 10 years over the potential bust.

(4) Roll the dice with Bennett. Guy could be a stud.

Pretty much against everything else, which I assume is what Ernie ends up doing.

[pancakes3]

I think between Noel, Porter, Zeller, Len, and Bennett, there is more than enough talent on the board for our 2nd, or even 3rd choices to be pretty solid players. I'm not as stressed this draft about missing out than I was last year of missing out on Beal.'

Also, just realized the guys I mentioned are mcqueen's guys too - just in slightly different order.

[sfam]

Cleveland is taking Len

In fact Cleveland has the structure in place to help any big man blossom with assistant coach Jamal Mosely, who was critical in helping Tristan Thompson develop, along with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Vitaly Potapenko, Len's countryman from the Ukraine. Cleveland GM Chris Grant loves bigs who can score and Len is by the most polished scorer at his position.

Orl and OKC are trying to do a deal so OKC gets Porter

Wizards are rumored to not want Noel, that means they go Bennett who is reported high on their list.

I would rather they take Burke, McLemore, VO, Zeller trade down, so something.

Porter would be terrific for OKC. I doubt they have enough to get him though.

EDIT: or Len if that's who they are targeting.

[sfam]

I'm willing to admit that I liked MKG over Beal, but lets remember Beal was being sold on being a knock down shooter who had very average shooting numbers and MKG had a don't lose at any cost mentality to his game.

I made a mistake and think Beal is the better prospect now but it's not like MKG would have killed us. We'd probably be choosing McLemore instead of Porter or Bennett and I think Wall/McLemore/MKG has the potential to be an awesome core.

But yea, I prefer Wall/Beal/Porter quite a bit. Less overall athletic upside but much better above the shoulders and probably ends up being better at the end of the day.

I was on the Beal bandwagon early. The IQ, toughness, nasty streak, smooth athleticism, and the good NBA body all were huge pluses for me. He was a clean prospect who had consistently shown he was the best guard in his class in almost all competition he participated in. I liked him over Rivers and Lamb very early on and by the time the draft came around there wasn't a doubt in my mind he was far better than those two.

I wasn't worried about his shooting at all because he has a perfect shot. I didn't care about the percentages. The only concern I had with him was his ability to create offense off the dribble. But he reminded me so much of Ray Allen, down to the way he looked and moved on the court, I thought he'd still be able to score plenty.

I liked MKG in general but not as much as a fit for us. I thought that Beal was a better fit for us. I liked Drummond but had no faith in our ability to develop him, he was basically nothing more than an awesome body. Still isn't really. I loved Davis, was bummed out that we had no chance at him. He was the wire to wire #1.

I actually liked Barnes and Sullinger too, just definitely not anywhere close to three. I thought they went about where they should have. Didn't like Lamb. Didn't like Meyers Leonard. Didn't like Rivers much, thought he was a bit of a punk. Didn't like Perry Jones at all, wasn't surprised when he plummeted.

The player that was a blind spot for me was TRob. I liked him as much as Beal and would have been happy with either one at 3. I was fooled by his production last year. Fooled by him leading his team to the Finals. Fooled by his NBA ready body and his terrific athleticism. By his elite motor and how he ran the floor even harder and played with even more energy than MKG. By the DC connection and the touching life story. We needed rebounding so bad and we needed a true PF, so his position value was high.

Damn, still don't even see how he's been such a bust so far. Junior one year wonders, cough Oladipo, cough cough Olynyk.

To be fair, he got a bad break. It's tough to succeed when the team that drafts you doesn't invest in you at all. And then your second team is just trying to use you as a chip to get a star. Maybe he ends up in a stable situation the third time around and takes to his new digs.

I was definitely all over Beal last year. My bad pick was the year previously - by the time we drafted, I didn't have a favorite but was pretty excited about Jan Vesely.