Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

[dckingsfan]

So what do you guys think of Tim Connelly's job in Denver so far since being hired away from the Wizards? So far I'm thinking he's not the genius that got away.

And apparently he still likes Randy Foye.

I love that he is ripping the heart out of the team - Iguodala and Koufos were the defensive heart of that team (manimal too).

[hands11]

Wow...so forget Ellis to ATL...cuz they are apparently trying to S&T Teague for Jennings? That's a downgrade for Atlanta IMO. And Ellis instead going to the Kings also makes zero sense. Maybe they think they can play him at the point with a spot-up shooter like McLemore on the team? Not saying it'll work, just trying to figure out what they're thinking.

I also think GSW will regret investing so much in Iguodala and letting Landry/Jack walk, although I think you could argue that in the short-term they have a talent upgrade. They'll really regret it when they have to max out Curry and overpay to keep Thompson. I guess the owners are willing to be repeat luxury tax payers?

The T-Wolves filled a lot of needs so far this summer, just expensively. But I'm inclined to say they've been successful. (Not sure if the rumored $12M per for Pekovic will push them into tax territory. If so, I'd have to lower their offseason grade a bit.)

I can't believe they let Jack go. He was HUGE for them.

4 years 25M seems reasonable for him. Cleveland has really been out there trying to make some moves.

[dckingsfan]

Jennings wants 12M per year - that would just cripple the Bucks.

[hands11]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... orld-Peace

Wow, I have lost track of where all these players are getting moved.

Wonder where MWP lands. LAC ?

Sounds like AJ might land there as well.

CP, Blake Griffin, and whatever over 30 solid vets you can add.

[Liverbird]

Wow...so forget Ellis to ATL...cuz they are apparently trying to S&T Teague for Jennings? That's a downgrade for Atlanta IMO. And Ellis instead going to the Kings also makes zero sense. Maybe they think they can play him at the point with a spot-up shooter like McLemore on the team? Not saying it'll work, just trying to figure out what they're thinking.

I also think GSW will regret investing so much in Iguodala and letting Landry/Jack walk, although I think you could argue that in the short-term they have a talent upgrade. They'll really regret it when they have to max out Curry and overpay to keep Thompson. I guess the owners are willing to be repeat luxury tax payers?

The T-Wolves filled a lot of needs so far this summer, just expensively. But I'm inclined to say they've been successful. (Not sure if the rumored $12M per for Pekovic will push them into tax territory. If so, I'd have to lower their offseason grade a bit.)

I can't believe they let Jack go. He was HUGE for them.

4 years 25M seems reasonable for him. Cleveland has really been out there trying to make some moves.

The rumored destinations for Jennings just seem weird to me. Why would SAC want to replace Evans with a like guard? It didn't work the first time. As you said LR - zero sense.

Lou Williams seems like a similar combo guard to me as well. It would be interesting to see if that works. POR is doing something similar with McCollum and Lillard. GSW did that with Jack and Curry to good effect in the playoffs. They really are going to miss Jack this year. He's going to fit in well in Cleveland.

[miller31time]

Jennings wants 12M per year - that would just cripple the Bucks.

You don't win with players like Jennings getting major minutes. I don't care if he's being paid 6mil per year or the max.

If he, miraculously, had a better temperament and accepted a 6th man role, I could see him being effective. On a related note, if I had wheels, I'd be a wagon.

[dckingsfan]

Jennings wants 12M per year - that would just cripple the Bucks.

You don't win with players like Jennings getting major minutes. I don't care if he's being paid 6mil per year or the max.

If he, miraculously, had a better temperament and accepted a 6th man role, I could see him being effective. On a related note, if I had wheels, I'd be a wagon.

[Kanyewest]

To dat's point -- last season, 64 players classified as centers by basketball-reference played at least 500 total minutes. Kevin Seraphin had a PPA of 22 (where 100 = average and higher is better). That ranked 64th. The next closest PPA at center was a 36.

At PF, the bottom two were Singleton and Vesely.

The Wizards didn't have anyone who ranked in the bottom 10 at any other position (Cartier Martin was close at SF).

They did sign Maynor, though, who had one of the 5 worst PPAs for a PG last season.

Hmm. Having a bottom 10 guy at every position is amazingly within reach. Just re-sign Martin and trade for Rivers.

Well players go from bad to good from year to year- just look at Andray Blatche.

With Seraphin he showed that he can be an OK defender at times although his rotations need work. His offense however was terrible for a long period of time. He developed bad habits when Nene/Wall were out. He didn't adapt to teams doubling him - more often than not he took terrible shots, made the wrong pass that either lead to a turnover or missed the pass that could have led to a wide open look. It was also frustrating to watch Seraphin take bad shots ie 20 footers with 16 seconds on the shot clock, or throwing up putbacks off of offensive rebounds instead of kicking it out and resetting the offense.

That being said, Seraphin improved when the season came to a close - especially after he was put in the doghouse by Wittman. He played pretty well in a few games early against the Celtics and Doc Rivers said something along the lines that he should be a solid player for a long time as long as he puts in the work, although that was before teams started doubling him.

I'll be interested to see if Seraphin basketball IQ improves this offseason- plus he needs to know what to work on - ie improving his playmaking when he is doubled.

[Kanyewest]

You definitely are skewing your calculations for PPA to unfairly make the Wizards roster look worse than it is. If you had actually watched them play, I don't know, just once, and didn't just toy around with Excel all day you would know that both Vesely and Seraphin are dominant big men with incredible ceilings. Stats don't show everything.

Very good points.

Stats can't possibly tell the story the way video can:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWG8RATul30[/youtube]

Smoooooooooooooth!

This video shows that Vesley should be an all star one day

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg-CW4i1aAk[/youtube]

[deneem4]

If okc wouldve drafted kelly olynyk....they would have a tough starting 5

[payitforward]

...think GSW will regret ...letting Landry/Jack walk

I can't believe they let Jack go. He was HUGE for them.

This is the kind of thing that makes a person wish Ernie hadn't (as usual) been in such a hurry to sign a guy like Eric Maynor. What a great solution Jack would have been as a 3d guard -- backing up and mentoring Wall and Beal. More money, sure, but *much* more productivity.

[verbal8]

...think GSW will regret ...letting Landry/Jack walk

I can't believe they let Jack go. He was HUGE for them.

This is the kind of thing that makes a person wish Ernie hadn't (as usual) been in such a hurry to sign a guy like Eric Maynor. What a great solution Jack would have been as a 3d guard -- backing up and mentoring Wall and Beal. More money, sure, but *much* more productivity.

Jack really is more comparable to Webster than Maynor. While Webster is a better fit age-wise, Jack would have been better fit-wise(back-up both guards and play a little small ball SF). The one huge mitigation of the age difference is that Jack has been pretty much an iron man missing only significant time in 2011-2. In fact he played 83 games in 2010-11(trade).

It looks like the Cavs gave him just over MLE money, so it may have been tough to sell him on the Wizards. I think a 3 year MLE with the last year a player option could have been a competitive offer, but Jack(and his agent) likely would have gone with more guaranteed money from the Cavs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Interesting development on OKC. They drafted high profile players Steven Adams and Andre Roberson. But they also drafted a stretch four named Grant Jerrett.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Gra ... mary/24246

The guy is 19 years old and he only averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds at Arizona this season. I saw the guy live when the Wildcats played here in a Christmas tourney, but I don't remember him. (I noticed Solomon Hill and also their fresman C, Adam Tarczewski). Jerrett wasn't happy at Arizona, and instead of transferring he declared for the NBA. That almost NEVER works out, but he got drafted.

It's just summer league, but the guy so far is hitting the deep ball. The Thunder have had their eye on him for a while. http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder ... le/3857673

Sam Presti will never live down the Harden trade, because it's becoming more apparent (and I was wrong about this) that Jeremy Lamb isn't that strong a player. But still, I think Presti has a really good eye for talent. I expect to hear a lot from Adams, Roberson, and even this kid Jerrett down the road.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yeah, I did just post about a scrub/deep reserve on another team.

[Nivek]

To dat's point -- last season, 64 players classified as centers by basketball-reference played at least 500 total minutes. Kevin Seraphin had a PPA of 22 (where 100 = average and higher is better). That ranked 64th. The next closest PPA at center was a 36.

At PF, the bottom two were Singleton and Vesely.

The Wizards didn't have anyone who ranked in the bottom 10 at any other position (Cartier Martin was close at SF).

They did sign Maynor, though, who had one of the 5 worst PPAs for a PG last season.

Hmm. Having a bottom 10 guy at every position is amazingly within reach. Just re-sign Martin and trade for Rivers.

Well players go from bad to good from year to year- just look at Andray Blatche.

With Seraphin he showed that he can be an OK defender at times although his rotations need work. His offense however was terrible for a long period of time. He developed bad habits when Nene/Wall were out. He didn't adapt to teams doubling him - more often than not he took terrible shots, made the wrong pass that either lead to a turnover or missed the pass that could have led to a wide open look. It was also frustrating to watch Seraphin take bad shots ie 20 footers with 16 seconds on the shot clock, or throwing up putbacks off of offensive rebounds instead of kicking it out and resetting the offense.

That being said, Seraphin improved when the season came to a close - especially after he was put in the doghouse by Wittman. He played pretty well in a few games early against the Celtics and Doc Rivers said something along the lines that he should be a solid player for a long time as long as he puts in the work, although that was before teams started doubling him.

I'll be interested to see if Seraphin basketball IQ improves this offseason- plus he needs to know what to work on - ie improving his playmaking when he is doubled.

Players CAN go from bad to good (and vice versa) from season to season, but they usually don't. Blatche is one example, but players are actually pretty consistent year to year. Seraphin can improve and become a useful contributor if he puts in the work to get better.

Seraphin actually did not improve as the season went on. Somewhere on these boards, I posted his PPA scores that I have up on the blog. Just about every week, I posted each player's score for the season to that date. Seraphin started bad and pretty much stayed there. If no one can find the post, I'll dig up the numbers again.

The previous season, he played better late in the year. It gave everyone hope that maybe he could be at least a significant part of the big man rotation for the future. Last season was a massive step back.

[Kanyewest]

^^ The aspect of Seraphin's game that I saw improve was his field goal percentage- from mid March after getting out of Wittman's doghouse, he shot above 50% after shooting in the low to mid 40 % throughout the season. The big difference that I saw was a decision making which was to look to take the extra pass- sometimes he was rewarded with his decision making with higher assists other times his lack of ability to make the correct decision lead to turnovers.

If his PPA got worse at the end of the season though that makes sense considering his defense was getting worse and his rebounding was never that good this season to begin with. But overall I was encouraged what I saw from Seraphin to close the season; especially not forcing as many shots when he was doubled team.

[dckingsfan]

Seraphin is complicated IMO due to his '11-'12 years, getting his body into NBA shape, still learning the speed of the NBA, still learning how to pass out of a double team and who he is generally combined with on the court.

His production was much better the previous year and my guess is he has potential well above that threshold - so you don't want to dump him just yet especially give the duration and stochastic way that big men develop.

He still isn't NBA ready in terms of his conditioning - but last year was an improvement.

Other teams adjusted to his post moves from the season before and he hasn't yet adjusted to the speed of the double teams - I would give this time.

Lastly, he is often paired with Booker - I would say he would be much better paired with a volume rebounder on the defensive end and a stretch FC player on the offensive end.

So, I think we just have to wait and see how he develops this season - and that will be key for the Wiz making the playoffs and EG keeping his job. I would rather have the playoffs.

[Ruzious]

Seraphin is complicated IMO due to his '11-'12 years, getting his body into NBA shape, still learning the speed of the NBA, still learning how to pass out of a double team and who he is generally combined with on the court.

His production was much better the previous year and my guess is he has potential well above that threshold - so you don't want to dump him just yet especially give the duration and stochastic way that big men develop.

He still isn't NBA ready in terms of his conditioning - but last year was an improvement.

Other teams adjusted to his post moves from the season before and he hasn't yet adjusted to the speed of the double teams - I would give this time.

Lastly, he is often paired with Booker - I would say he would be much better paired with a volume rebounder on the defensive end and a stretch FC player on the offensive end.

So, I think we just have to wait and see how he develops this season - and that will be key for the Wiz making the playoffs and EG keeping his job. I would rather have the playoffs.

Sorry but 64th out of 64 is breaking bad. There are no justifications for it other than to accept that he's really bad. I don't buy any excuse for lack of conditioning, adjusting to the speed of double teams, and having to play with Booker - especially considering how little Booker played last season. Somethings dramatic have to change for him to achieve mediocrity, and I don't think it makes sense to expect those dramatic changes to occur. If they do, it's pure bonus.

[Nivek]

Last season, Seraphin played 1721 minutes total. He was on the court with Booker for 380 of those minutes. So, the two played together about 22% of the time. Booker ranked 10th last season in minutes played with Seraphin. While I agree he'd probably look a bit better with a stretch 4 who was also a first-rate rebounder, reality is that there aren't many of those guys.

I wouldn't spend much time worrying about finding a running buddy who can cover for the fact that Seraphin rebounds like a SF and can't/won't pass out of the post. I'd do my best to help him improve, but if he doesn't I'd move on. It'd be great if he comes back significantly improved. I hope he does. But, entering his 4th season -- it really is time for him to play better if he wants to stick around.

[JAR69]

Yeah, I did just post about a scrub/deep reserve on another team.

I may be worse - I noticed him while watching the combine and came away impressed with his stroke. He looked very comfortable shooting jump shots.