Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

[LyricalRico]

Well, seems like the Bucks are collecting 2nd round picks. They've acquired 4 since the draft - 2 for Redick and 2 from Sacramento for a Moute. Maybe they'll collect them all and ransom them back to the Association. Now, Milwaukee could really use Ariza. The closest thing they have to a 3 who's ready to play is Delfino - who's more of a 2. And now they don't have a defensive specialist forward.

Ariza to MIL for all of their second round picks? LOL

Seriously, does MIL have the cap space to do OkaRiza for Ersan? It would upgrade their depth and defense, plus give them a couple expirings. We get our stretch 4 and a TPE to acquire other frontcourt help. Maybe Thompson/Hayes from Sacto? A move like that would let them overpay for Monta Ellis (which apparently they want to do).

Nene/Hayes
Ersan/Thompson
Porter/Webster
Beal/Webster
Wall/Maynor

We roll with that group until Nene's deal expires, and then reload. We wouldn't have a true 7-footer in the rotation, but maybe we can pick that up in the 2014 draft.

[nuposse04]

i think we are probably over-estimating Ariza's value now if Luc fetches two future 2nds. I thnk Ariza is a bit more valuable in that he expires and isn't a terrible offensive liability but we're gonna have to throwin in a '15 of '14 protected pick to net anything of value I think.

[closg00]

Amazing JO gets another 1-year deal, this time with the warriors.

[penbeast0]

Why is Sacramento planning to tie up long term money in Monta Ellis? I thought they were committing to McLemore and I think using Ellis as PG and McLemore as a 2 long term isn't a good solution.

[Nivek]

i think we are probably over-estimating Ariza's value now if Luc fetches two future 2nds. I thnk Ariza is a bit more valuable in that he expires and isn't a terrible offensive liability but we're gonna have to throwin in a '15 of '14 protected pick to net anything of value I think.

Ariza was a lot better last season than Mbah a Moute. If Milwaukee can get a couple 2nd rounders for Mbah a Moute than Ariza ought to be worth at least a first rounder or a good player. Looking at the numbers, Ariza was a lot more efficient -- shot better from everywhere (.501 efg to .418); offensive rating for Mbah a Moute was 90 to Ariza's 103 (league average was 105.8).

Ariza shot significantly more 3s (pace adjusted, per 40 minutes), which is a good thing because of his solid percentage. Rebounding was about the same, as were turnovers and blocks, but Ariza had more assists (almost twice as many per minute) and steals and fouled a bit less.

Mbah a Moute rated as an average defender in my stuff -- Ariza was one of the better SF defenders in the league.

Overall, Mbah a Moute had a PPA of 55 last season (average is 100; higher is better; replacement level is 45); Ariza's PPA was 108.

[nuposse04]

i think we are probably over-estimating Ariza's value now if Luc fetches two future 2nds. I thnk Ariza is a bit more valuable in that he expires and isn't a terrible offensive liability but we're gonna have to throwin in a '15 of '14 protected pick to net anything of value I think.

Ariza was a lot better last season than Mbah a Moute. If Milwaukee can get a couple 2nd rounders for Mbah a Moute than Ariza ought to be worth at least a first rounder or a good player. Looking at the numbers, Ariza was a lot more efficient -- shot better from everywhere (.501 efg to .418); offensive rating for Mbah a Moute was 90 to Ariza's 103 (league average was 105.8).

Ariza shot significantly more 3s (pace adjusted, per 40 minutes), which is a good thing because of his solid percentage. Rebounding was about the same, as were turnovers and blocks, but Ariza had more assists (almost twice as many per minute) and steals and fouled a bit less.

Mbah a Moute rated as an average defender in my stuff -- Ariza was one of the better SF defenders in the league.

Overall, Mbah a Moute had a PPA of 55 last season (average is 100; higher is better; replacement level is 45); Ariza's PPA was 108.

I was under the impression Luc was an all NBA caliber defender (well if you listen to Bucks fans, probably where I went astray). As you noted though, Ariza is pretty much average offensively, I still don't think his offensive abilities warrants much more. I do think his expiring should increase value.

BTW how do you rate individual perimeter defenders? Do you have another metric embedded into PPA that takes that into account?

[deneem4]

Back to what I was saying...wtf is the kings doing????

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Back to what I was saying...wtf is the kings doing????

As far as I'm concerned, General Greivis Vasquez is a pass-first player who's going to help them some. McLemore's pure shooting can't hurt them. Carl Landry is if nothing else a very efficient scorer. I think it was a curious move to bring him in when they already had Thompson and Patterson.

[nate33]

Mbah a Moute doesn't help a team. Being a good defender alone isn't enough. You've got to be a good defender while also being able to hit a corner three. I'd easily take Ariza over Mbah a Moute. It's not even a question. I'd easily take Ariza at $8M a year over Mbah a Moute at $4M a year.

[rockymac52]

Honestly I've never understood the fascination with Mbah a Moute. While defensive metrics aren't perfect, they have some value, and his indicate he's just an average or maybe above average defender. And then his offense is god awful. I'm not sure what really separates Mbah a Moute from Chris Singleton. I would never want him on my team, even on a minimum deal. He is a black hole on offense. I actually think his defense has become so overrated in part because of how bad his offense is. People understand his offense is non-existent, so they just assume that if he's still getting minutes in the NBA, it must be because he's a lock-down defender. I'm going to start calling it the "Jared Jeffries syndrome."

[dckingsfan]

Why is Sacramento planning to tie up long term money in Monta Ellis? I thought they were committing to McLemore and I think using Ellis as PG and McLemore as a 2 long term isn't a good solution.

Ugh!

[dckingsfan]

Back to what I was saying...wtf is the kings doing????

As far as I'm concerned, General Greivis Vasquez is a pass-first player who's going to help them some. McLemore's pure shooting can't hurt them. Carl Landry is if nothing else a very efficient scorer. I think it was a curious move to bring him in when they already had Thompson and Patterson.

[TGW]

The Kings are making curious moves. Way too many power forwards who don't mesh well with Cousins, no backup center, mediocre small forwards, a bunch of shotjacking guards, and from the outside it looks like a team that's going to lack cohesion again.

They need a clear leader that can bring those guys together, because I'm seeing Cancerous Cousins destroying that team from the jump.

Maybe Greivis can help with that, but he's a hothead too, so it will definitely be interesting.

[rockymac52]

The Kings are making curious moves. Way too many power forwards who don't mesh well with Cousins, no backup center, mediocre small forwards, a bunch of shotjacking guards, and from the outside it looks like a team that's going to lack cohesion again.

They need a clear leader that can bring those guys together, because I'm seeing Cancerous Cousins destroying that team from the jump.

Maybe Greivis can help with that, but he's a hothead too, so it will definitely be interesting.

I get the impression that they're blowing the Kings roster up. New ownership, management, and coaching, so it makes sense. Keep the players you actually value, acquire more players that you value, and eventually get rid of the guys you don't like. Pretty simple. The Landry signing surprised me. Landry's a great player and it was fair value, but the Kings already have Cousins, Patterson, Thompson, and Hayes. Clearly at least one of them HAS to be traded before the season starts. I think they just wanted Landry, so they signed him, and they decided they'll figure out who to get rid of and how later.

But yeah, the interest in Monta Ellis baffles me. Honestly, I don't know why any team other than the desperate Bobcats or Bucks would even want him on their team. He's terrible and the definition of a losing player. He will never be on a good team unless he changes his approach DRASTICALLY.

[dckingsfan]

I still haven't figured out what Atlanta is doing either... they seem to seriously be looking at Jennings???

I guess they are going to end up with something like:

Jeff Teague or Jennings/Dennis Schroeder
John Jenkins/ Lou Williams/ Jared Cunningham
Kyle Korver/DeMarre Carroll
Paul Millsap
Al Horford/Lucas Nogueira

Not even sure if Schroeder or Nogueira will be in the NBA this season?

I guess they are waiting to see what they do depending on the sign and trades from Josh Smith, Devin Harris and Zaza Pachulia?

I can't decide if they are going to be a tank team or going for the 8th seed?

[pancakes3]

Speaking of Atlanta, I hope Mike Scott's value continues to be depressed. He is going to be a very solid rotation guy for someone eventually. In fact, I think he'd do very well as a stretch 4 for us if we can somehow trick the hawks into some sort of trade.

[penbeast0]

If SAC signs Ellis, it reminds me of Detroit signing Ben Gordon and Charlie V to big contracts . . . they don't fit, they aren't that good, and they will have to spend assets to get rid of them (or take back other bad contracts).

[Ruzious]

i think we are probably over-estimating Ariza's value now if Luc fetches two future 2nds. I thnk Ariza is a bit more valuable in that he expires and isn't a terrible offensive liability but we're gonna have to throwin in a '15 of '14 protected pick to net anything of value I think.

Ariza was a lot better last season than Mbah a Moute. If Milwaukee can get a couple 2nd rounders for Mbah a Moute than Ariza ought to be worth at least a first rounder or a good player. Looking at the numbers, Ariza was a lot more efficient -- shot better from everywhere (.501 efg to .418); offensive rating for Mbah a Moute was 90 to Ariza's 103 (league average was 105.8).

Ariza shot significantly more 3s (pace adjusted, per 40 minutes), which is a good thing because of his solid percentage. Rebounding was about the same, as were turnovers and blocks, but Ariza had more assists (almost twice as many per minute) and steals and fouled a bit less.

Mbah a Moute rated as an average defender in my stuff -- Ariza was one of the better SF defenders in the league.

Overall, Mbah a Moute had a PPA of 55 last season (average is 100; higher is better; replacement level is 45); Ariza's PPA was 108.

Agreed on the comparisons, but keep in mind that the 2 picks are in 2016 and 2018. I'd be surprised if the Wiz can get more than a heavily protected 1st for Ariza.

[Deeptu McPullup]

The Kings are making curious moves. Way too many power forwards who don't mesh well with Cousins, no backup center, mediocre small forwards, a bunch of shotjacking guards, and from the outside it looks like a team that's going to lack cohesion again.

They need a clear leader that can bring those guys together, because I'm seeing Cancerous Cousins destroying that team from the jump.

Maybe Greivis can help with that, but he's a hothead too, so it will definitely be interesting.

I get the impression that they're blowing the Kings roster up. New ownership, management, and coaching, so it makes sense. Keep the players you actually value, acquire more players that you value, and eventually get rid of the guys you don't like. Pretty simple. The Landry signing surprised me. Landry's a great player and it was fair value, but the Kings already have Cousins, Patterson, Thompson, and Hayes. Clearly at least one of them HAS to be traded before the season starts. I think they just wanted Landry, so they signed him, and they decided they'll figure out who to get rid of and how later.

But yeah, the interest in Monta Ellis baffles me. Honestly, I don't know why any team other than the desperate Bobcats or Bucks would even want him on their team. He's terrible and the definition of a losing player. He will never be on a good team unless he changes his approach DRASTICALLY.

I believe Thompson is the obvious guy to go as he's just been there too long with the Kings being awful that whole time. It's just stale and hard to say "Hey, Jason, we're rebuilding again, you buyin' in, dog?" The human element will see him going through the motions and being displeased with the depth situation. Even if he says the right things, how much faith can he have in that situation.

Hayes I'm sure they'd like to dump, but it might be tough. The numbers say he's a plus on the court, but he looks like a guy who should be in the cab of a Peterbilt and saying things like "Breaker 1-9, breaker 1-9...."

[dangermouse]

What do you guys think will become of LAL?

They were far from contention with Dwight, and now he is gone. Kobes is going to be out at the start of the season. For a while its just going to be Pau and Nash. Those two might have been a good pairing a few years ago and could probably carry a team, but they aren't going to be able to win games by themselves anymore. And even when Kobe returns, that "big 3" is just not enough.

They've amnestied MWP but that still doesnt really help them sign anyone.

I'm guessing they are or will be shopping Nash for depth. I can't see what else they could do other than tank, which would really piss of Kobes.