Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[hands11]

May revise my number, waiting to see what Nene looks like and when Beal will be playing full-time.

need to know the health status of Nene and Beal before making predictions

Need to know a lot more then that.

How about other teams rosters and health as well.

Lots can happen between now and Nov.

[TheBabyMaker]

42-40

41-0 @ Home
1-40 Away

[fishercob]

Here's an astounding stat:

Since January 7, the Wizards have scored 114.1 points per 100 possessions when BOTH Martell Webster and Bradley Beal have been on the floor. When they're both off the floor, they've scored 88.3.

nate33's First Law of Basketball:
Shooting matters.

That's from the Beal thread, back in February. But it's highly instructive to this discussion. I won't make a prediction on the record until training camp once everyone's rosters are set, but the Wizards seem like a significantly improved team.

If nate's FLoB is that shooting matters, the second has to be that defense does too. The wing depth many have decried as "duplication" is going to enable us to keep shooting (and spacing) on the floor while also maintaining defensive integrity. Our team's 3pt% won't be inflated be a specialist like Novak who get you killed on the other end of the floor.

Wall needs to be healthy, and someone -- presumably Maynor -- needs to get the opposing defense rotating when Wall is resting. But the fact that we have shooting and defense from the same players is a really good thing.

Even with half a season from Wall that included periods of dominance and similar flashes of brilliance from Beal, the Wizards were still the very worst offensive team in the NBA last year. The worst! Jordan Crawford had a usage rate of 26.4% (second on the team) in 1100 minutes. Seraphin was 3rd 23.5% in 1700 minutes. Both players were terribly inefficient. Crawford's possessions will be completely replaced. Seraphin's should be decreased.

My bleary-eyed, poorly developed point is that the Wizards have tons of room to improve from last season offensively, and there's lots of reason to expect them to do so. They should get more shots from the right guys and fewer turnovers from the wrong guys. This improvement should not come at the significant expense of defensive efficiency. Health of Wall and Nene is paramount.

[GhostsOfGil]

Fitty-32. We get a 5 seed, get to the 2nd round in a monumental upset beat the Heat. LBJ joins the Wiz next season to collect rings with Wall and my brain melts.

LeQueen is not coming to DC.

I think I would still boo him if he did.

[rockymac52]

I'll hold off on my prediction for now, but I think we're definitely in good shape to make the playoffs this year. The way I see it, the Heat, Bulls, Nets, and Pacers are all locks for the playoffs, probably for the top four seeds. The Knicks are the next tier, in a tier of their own, IMO. They're a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs. That's 5 teams, so there's 3 spots left in the playoffs and 10 teams left in the East.

I think the 76ers, Magic, and Bobcats are locks for the lottery - I'd be stunned if any of them made the playoffs. That leaves 7 teams fighting for 3 spots in the playoffs - the Wizards, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks, Bucks, Celtics, and Raptors. I think the Pistons are probably on the bottom end of that group, and they're really going to struggle again without any decent PGs, SGs, or SFs, IMO. If everything goes right for them mayyybe they can sneak in as an 8 seed, but I doubt it. The rest is really a tossup, or rather, everyone has their own opinions, and there's no clear cut consensus.

Everybody keeps saying the Celtics and Hawks are in tank mode, but I don't think that's the case at all. In fact, I think the Hawks are the best team of that remaining group, even better than us. A front court of Korver/Millsap/Horford is actually really good. Then with Lou Williams, Jenkins, and Teague (or Jennings if the rumored S&T goes down), they have a few average guards to add to the mix. Add in the fact that they're probably going to be very well coached, and I think that's a pretty solid bet for a playoff team next season. If they sign Ellis, that knocks them back a bit IMO. But they could also jump up a lot if they sign Bynum and he's actually healthy (a big if, of course).

Same can be said about Bynum with the Cavs. Without him, I don't think they're all they're cracked up to be. Varejao is always hurt, Thompson is pretty average, Waiters was severely overrated as a rookie, Kyrie's defense is miserable, and I'm personally not a fan of Bennett, although I understand if you're a fan of his how you might think the Cavs are going to be good this year. I see a team that won 24 games last season and didn't improve all that much this summer, and they're going to need to improve their record by about 15 games if they want a shot at the playoffs, which is no easy task (yes, I know the Wizards are facing a similarly daunting task).

Bucks should be in the mix but not a real threat, just like these past few years. They have an insane amount of depth in their front court, most of whom are excellent defensively but lacking offensively (Ilyasova is the exception), but then they have absolutely no talented guards. Even if they re-sign Jennings, he's average at best, and the same can be said for OJ Mayo. Their defense will likely keep them in the mix, but I don't think they're a real threat, and it's hard to see them winning 40 games.

Raptors definitely don't have a very good roster, IMO, but they do actually have a solid collection of average players, and I could see them hovering around .500 and making it to the playoffs. As for the Celtics, losing KG, Pierce, and Terry will hurt, especially on defense, but those guys aren't nearly as good as they used to be. The Celtics have a very deep collection of capable NBA players, many of whom leave a lot to be desired and have their flaws, but they also have their talents. Rondo, Lee, Bradley, Crawford (lol), Brooks, Green, Wallace, Humphries, Olynyk, Sullinger, Bass... that's 11 guys right there, and I'm sure I forgot about 1 or 2 decent guys. If they can somehow consolidate talent, they'll be right back where they left off. That team as constructed can play .500 ball and make the playoffs, IMO.

Then there's us. We have a solid collection of solid players. The key is obviously health. If Wall gets hurt, we become a bottom 10, maybe bottom 5 team, immediately. On the flipside, if Wall or Beal or Porter makes a big jump and is better than we were expecting, that alone should plant us firmly in the playoffs. Barring any combinations of serious injuries, this team should hover around .500 at worst, meaning we'll be in the mix for the playoffs. If we can stay healthy and one or more players can make a big stride in their development, then we're a very safe bet for the playoffs.

[MJG]

40-42.

EDIT: Updated to 36-46 later in the thread.

EDIT 2: Updated again to 33-49 in an even later post.

[GhostsOfGil]

For the first time in 3 years I'm going into this season as an optimist. Our G/F position has been heavily bolstered so even if Beal/Wall miss a few games, I still feel confident we can stay afloat. The only concern I have, is the health of Nene and Okafor which Ernie has completely ignored. Even with that said, I think Nene is due for a healthy season.

I feel bold by saying this but I'm going with 48 wins. 2nd round exit.

[dckingsfan]

WizardsWorld, hands11 and daSwami have 82 wins
Wizardspride has 51
JWizmentality and nuposse04 have 50 wins
AFM has 49
DaRealHibachi has 48 wins
zardsfan and jimij have 47 wins
Rafael122 and Deeptu McPullup have 45 wins
TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2 and montestewart have 44 wins
miller31time, TheBabyMaker and closg00 have 42 wins
Zonkerbl and MJG have 40 wins
DCKingsFan has 39 wins
Ruzious has 38 wins
truwizfan4evr has 36 wins
Knighthonor has 30 wins

[The Consiglieri]

For the first time in 3 years I'm going into this season as an optimist. Our G/F position has been heavily bolstered so even if Beal/Wall miss a few games, I still feel confident we can stay afloat. The only concern I have, is the health of Nene and Okafor which Ernie has completely ignored. Even with that said, I think Nene is due for a healthy season.

I feel bold by saying this but I'm going with 48 wins. 2nd round exit.

Last year's projected record when healthy w/the exception of the season long severely hobbled Nene projects to a record of essentially 45-37. Now considering Nene was so frustrated and unhappy with his injuries that he considered retirement, I tend to imagine getting a full four to five or so months off (sounds like he just begged off Brazil's qualifyers and is sitting till September) would bring him back as good as humanly possible considering his age. If everybody's healthy, including Beal, I think the ceiling is actually fairly high. Add to that the fact that Boston is in full tank mode, and Philly and Milwaukee have fallen off, the former to rebuild with a pair of top '14 draft picks, the latter due to a faulty rebuild, and Atlanta, whose moves I like, but who doesn't appear ready to contend for now.

I see us sliding in as a six seed with a record of 47-35, with a floor, if suffering average injuries, of 36-46, a ceiling of 50-32, and an expected result of 47-35. Six seed, and a playoff series against either Indiana or Chicago.

The one thing I have an eye on is LA and Boston and their tank seasons, if either of those teams earn the 1 or 2 pick in a tank season I'm going to permanently call "rigged," and have a hard time watching this game going forward for '14-'15 and beyond.

[closg00]

1. Miami (Division winner)
2. Brooklyn (Division winner)
3. Chicago (Division winner)
4. Indiana
5. New York
6. Detroit
7. Washington
8. Cleveland

----------------------------

9. Atlanta
10. Toronto
11. Charlotte
12. Milwaukee
13. Oriando
14. Boston
15. Philadelphia

The Cavs at 8, with or w/o Bynum?

[GhostsOfGil]

For the first time in 3 years I'm going into this season as an optimist. Our G/F position has been heavily bolstered so even if Beal/Wall miss a few games, I still feel confident we can stay afloat. The only concern I have, is the health of Nene and Okafor which Ernie has completely ignored. Even with that said, I think Nene is due for a healthy season.

I feel bold by saying this but I'm going with 48 wins. 2nd round exit.

Last year's projected record when healthy w/the exception of the season long severely hobbled Nene projects to a record of essentially 45-37. Now considering Nene was so frustrated and unhappy with his injuries that he considered retirement, I tend to imagine getting a full four to five or so months off (sounds like he just begged off Brazil's qualifyers and is sitting till September) would bring him back as good as humanly possible considering his age. If everybody's healthy, including Beal, I think the ceiling is actually fairly high. Add to that the fact that Boston is in full tank mode, and Philly and Milwaukee have fallen off, the former to rebuild with a pair of top '14 draft picks, the latter due to a faulty rebuild, and Atlanta, whose moves I like, but who doesn't appear ready to contend for now.

I see us sliding in as a six seed with a record of 47-35, with a floor, if suffering average injuries, of 36-46, a ceiling of 50-32, and an expected result of 47-35. Six seed, and a playoff series against either Indiana or Chicago.

-snip-

That was a long write up to say I agree

[hands11]

WizardsWorld, and daSwami have 82 wins
hands11 81
Wizardspride has 51
JWizmentality and nuposse04 have 50 wins
AFM has 49
DaRealHibachi has 48 wins
zardsfan and jimij have 47 wins
Rafael122 and Deeptu McPullup have 45 wins
TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2 and montestewart have 44 wins
miller31time, TheBabyMaker and closg00 have 42 wins
Zonkerbl and MJG have 40 wins
DCKingsFan has 39 wins
Ruzious has 38 wins
truwizfan4evr has 36 wins
Knighthonor has 30 wins

Wait, I don't want to be in a 4 way tie. Besides, they have to lose at least 1.

81-1

[dckingsfan]

WizardsWorld and daSwami have 82 wins
hands11 has 81 wins (all by himself)
Wizardspride has 51
JWizmentality and nuposse04 have 50 wins
AFM has 49
DaRealHibachi and GhostsOfGil have 48 wins
The Consiglieri, zardsfan and jimij have 47 wins
Rafael122 and Deeptu McPullup have 45 wins
TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2 and montestewart have 44 wins
miller31time, TheBabyMaker and closg00 have 42 wins
Zonkerbl and MJG have 40 wins
DCKingsFan has 39 wins
Ruzious has 38 wins
truwizfan4evr has 36 wins
Knighthonor has 30 wins

[BarnabyJones]

43-39. 7th seed in the Eastern conference.

[closg00]

Hmmm, which Eastern team will be the surprise team? What will Rondo be able to do with that roster? Bynum will sign with ATL or the Cavs.

[mohammed10]

A bit early on the prediction front...we haven't seen any SL action yet.

I think I will hold off until I have a better idea of how this group comes together (or doesn't)

[montestewart]

A bit early on the prediction front...we haven't seen any SL action yet.

I think I will hold off until I have a better idea of how this group comes together (or doesn't)

Come on man, just chug a six-pack and spit out a number! We got huge money riding on this!

[montestewart]

A bit early on the prediction front...we haven't seen any SL action yet.

I think I will hold off until I have a better idea of how this group comes together (or doesn't)

Come on man, just chug a six-pack and spit out a number! We got huge money riding on this!

On second thought, looking at the Beal thread, better hold off.

[hands11]

WizardsWorld and daSwami have 82 wins
hands11 has 80 wins (all by himself)
Wizardspride has 51
JWizmentality and nuposse04 have 50 wins
AFM has 49
DaRealHibachi and GhostsOfGil have 48 wins
The Consiglieri, zardsfan and jimij have 47 wins
Rafael122 and Deeptu McPullup have 45 wins
TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2 and montestewart have 44 wins
miller31time, TheBabyMaker and closg00 have 42 wins
Zonkerbl and MJG have 40 wins
DCKingsFan has 39 wins
Ruzious has 38 wins
truwizfan4evr has 36 wins
Knighthonor has 30 wins

I think 81 may be to ambitious. Come on. Who has ever won that many games. 80 might be more doable.

[Knighthonor]

A bit early on the prediction front...we haven't seen any SL action yet.

I think I will hold off until I have a better idea of how this group comes together (or doesn't)

I agree with you. Otherwise I predict a tank.