The Tank Debate Thread

[DatBoiCapspace]

Don't get mad because you don't know what the hell you're saying and then start to put words in my mouth. You don't understand and that's fine.

But here it goes one more time;

Right now we are a bubble team with 6 teams better than us and teams like Cleveland, Washington, Detroit all improved. Again as I said, at the VERY best if everything goes right (no injuries, good coaching, guys performing) and those 3 teams have major injuries while we don't, I could see them getting the 7th seed (which isn't something to be jumping up and down about). We're still a treadmill team with not much upside with the current core. I don't know what you're not getting here.

However though, the likely scenario (if this core stays intact) is that this team pulls another BC and finishes with 30-35 wins which is the worst possible scenario if you haven't noticed.

And again since you've been clueless, WE HAVE 2 CORE GUYS WHO CAN LEAVE at the end of the year; there's going to be a trade involving them. We cannot lose them for nothing. The Bargnani deal got more value then the one you just presented and both Lowry and Gay have a lot more, so I'm confident Masai can pull off a decent deal.

So what your saying is you think the Raptors will be mediocre, but you really dont know. I happen to agree, which is why its best to let the season play out and see then, AKA not tank.

And again, you have no clue what Masais plans are for Gay/Lowry. We dont know if they will be open to resigning with us or not. Masai could just as easily pull a Nene and re-sign then trade one of them shortly after. So no rush to dump them now unless their agents are clear that they want out or we get a great offer for them. Just as Masai says we have a couple year window with this team.

I've given every indication that they will be mediocre so I do know since I just explained it to you. A 7 seed is mediocre considering the amount of money we are paying these guys and the limited amount of upside left.

I agree that we shouldn't dump these guys for nothing but I'm confident Masai can get a much better deal then what DET offered by the deadline or sooner. But we can't take that chance to let them finish off the year because there is no guaranteeing that they will stay so Masai has to get something out of them, especially if we are struggling.

If you know they are going to be mediocre then why the hell would we waste a season with them while at the same time hurting our draft position? Tanking/Re-building is our only option imo.

We don't know they will be mediocre. We dont know how much JV will improve, or how well Rudy And Lowry will play in their contract years. If we finish +500 and in 7th, its a lot easier to improve on that then it is to improve on a bottom 5 team, where your only hope of contending in JV's prime will be landing the next Lebron. So I disagree that tanking is our only option.

But I do agree that if Masai gets an indication that Lowry/Gay want to skip town, then he should move them by the deadline at the latest.

[Salted Meat]

Maybe things would be a little less divisive if we stopped using the term "tank," which is in itself a bit hyperbolic. We're not talking about cartwheeling to last place. That's embarrassing for everyone. It's desperate. It lacks the basic elements of sport and competition that, as fans, we all love.

We're talking about strategically rebuilding. Losing is just a temporary byproduct of this rebuild, and just like with any reconstruction, there will be some aesthetic inconveniences. The team might not look as good. They might not be able to serve your needs as well as they'd like to be able to. In short, they might lose a lot of games.

All of this is normal, and essential if we want to build a team that can compete at the highest level.

Right now, we have a team that can compete for a playoff spot, but with our cap situation, our team is not designed to compete for a championship in the future.

Why kick the proverbial can down the road a few years? Why not, if we know and can acknowledge that this team as constructed will not compete for a championship, make a bold move and build things the right way instead of constantly having to patch it up every year? Especially in this very unique year, when we're expected to have significant talent available in the lottery, why wouldn't we put ourselves in a position to capitalize on that situation?

[Salted Meat]

Another question:

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that instead of the draft, the 2014 off-season saw a significant amount of talent available via free agency.

Given our cap situation, in order to make a run at any of those players, we'd have to divest ourselves of some of our larger, perhaps longer contracts. That would mean trading DeMar or Gay or Lowry or Johnson for expirings.

This would also affect our ability to compete immediately, however, we would create space for a true max player on our team and be one of only small handful of teams that could afford to pay that kind of salary.

Do you do it, and if so, how is that any different, or I should say, more of a risk, or more appropriate, than rebuilding through the draft?

[StMikes31]

So what your saying is you think the Raptors will be mediocre, but you really dont know. I happen to agree, which is why its best to let the season play out and see then, AKA not tank.

And again, you have no clue what Masais plans are for Gay/Lowry. We dont know if they will be open to resigning with us or not. Masai could just as easily pull a Nene and re-sign then trade one of them shortly after. So no rush to dump them now unless their agents are clear that they want out or we get a great offer for them. Just as Masai says we have a couple year window with this team.

I've given every indication that they will be mediocre so I do know since I just explained it to you. A 7 seed is mediocre considering the amount of money we are paying these guys and the limited amount of upside left.

I agree that we shouldn't dump these guys for nothing but I'm confident Masai can get a much better deal then what DET offered by the deadline or sooner. But we can't take that chance to let them finish off the year because there is no guaranteeing that they will stay so Masai has to get something out of them, especially if we are struggling.

If you know they are going to be mediocre then why the hell would we waste a season with them while at the same time hurting our draft position? Tanking/Re-building is our only option imo.

We don't know they will be mediocre. We dont know how much JV will improve, or how well Rudy And Lowry will play in their contract years. If we finish +500 and in 7th, its a lot easier to improve on that then it is to improve on a bottom 5 team, where your only hope of contending in JV's prime will be landing the next Lebron. So I disagree that tanking is our only option.

But I do agree that if Masai gets an indication that Lowry/Gay want to skip town, then he should move them by the deadline at the latest.

We had a pretty good sample size last season of how they will play, I'm convinced they will be the same and possibly a little better but that still doesn't take into the fact that all the bubble teams improved and there are 6 playoff locks right now. Like I said, 7-12 seed which is a treadmill and there is no need to go forward since we are capped out.

Taking a step back is must when the core doesn't have a huge ceiling and we are capped out.

[hillbilly hare]

Well, put it this way, if everything you listed happens (ie goes wrong) then Masai won't have to do anything because we'll be auto-tanking.

No, we'll be in the 30-35 win range again.

So if everything goes wrong we're 30-35?

That means, if things go normally we're 35-40?

If things go well, we're 40-45?

Not bad, I'll talk those numbers easily for this season.

Yeah, that's what I have said too. Especially if Jonas is the real deal. And is the real deal this year, not in 2 years. As I've always said, he's THE game changer. The only game changer we have. If he takes it to Pau Gasol level, we can win 45 games, as I've said numerous times.

The point is, maybe where we diverge, is the "in between" stuff. You say that if things go "wrong", we win 35 games. I think that's very optimistic. "Wrong" can mean a lot of things, e.g. Lowry getting hurt, again, or maybe just showing everyone that he really is an average PG over the course of a full season; or nobody else taking that mythical "step forward", the one we've been waiting years for from Demar, for instance. I think that if things go "wrong", we're looking at closer to 30 wins.

If things go "normally" and we win 35-40 games, that's bad, in my opinion. That's a disaster. It means that it was a wasted season. In my books, this team is pretty mediocre. Why NOT try to be better than mediocre. We could shoot for "above average", for starters. We have no All-star talent on the team. Jonas might get there in a year or two, but that's it. So, how can we add All-star or game changing talent? Our hands are tied, in terms of signing free agents. What about trading for stars? Not unheard of, but what do we have that another team might want? Rudy's enormous expiring (maybe) deal, same for Demar and Lowry, maybe Ross. I dunno. Definitely NOT our 2014 draft pick.

I think we have to be looking to trade for picks, any picks, as long as they're first rounders. Don't necessarily have to be in the lotto. Get multiple picks and maybe you can trade up. Masai has done well in the mid/late first round. Maybe look to steal a young prospect in a trade like Orlando did last year with Tobias Harris. And we'd also have tons of cap space. Which, before somebody says we can't sign FAs here in TO, remember that you can use it to trade straight up for high salaried guys, or to take on a bad contract together with a young prospect and/or picks.

I mean, I'd love to go the playoffs. But for more than one year. I see this roster as having a one-year shot at the playoffs, before Lowry and Gay might get away for nothing.

[DatBoiCapspace]

I've given every indication that they will be mediocre so I do know since I just explained it to you. A 7 seed is mediocre considering the amount of money we are paying these guys and the limited amount of upside left.

I agree that we shouldn't dump these guys for nothing but I'm confident Masai can get a much better deal then what DET offered by the deadline or sooner. But we can't take that chance to let them finish off the year because there is no guaranteeing that they will stay so Masai has to get something out of them, especially if we are struggling.

If you know they are going to be mediocre then why the hell would we waste a season with them while at the same time hurting our draft position? Tanking/Re-building is our only option imo.

We don't know they will be mediocre. We dont know how much JV will improve, or how well Rudy And Lowry will play in their contract years. If we finish +500 and in 7th, its a lot easier to improve on that then it is to improve on a bottom 5 team, where your only hope of contending in JV's prime will be landing the next Lebron. So I disagree that tanking is our only option.

But I do agree that if Masai gets an indication that Lowry/Gay want to skip town, then he should move them by the deadline at the latest.

We had a pretty good sample size last season of how they will play, I'm convinced they will be the same and possibly a little better but that still doesn't take into the fact that all the bubble teams improved and there are 6 playoff locks right now. Like I said, 7-12 seed which is a treadmill and there is no need to go forward since we are capped out.

Taking a step back is must when the core doesn't have a huge ceiling and we are capped out.

We are capped out for one year, maybe two at most if Gay and Lowry resign. Even if we wait until 2015-2016 with this core the oldest player will be 29. We also have the ability to make trades even when were capped out to acquire some real talent to improve our ceiling. This gives us a couple year window to evaluate how to improve the core, and I disagree that tanking is the only option to do it, though I agree that it is a potential option if say we start 4-19 again.

[StMikes31]

We don't know they will be mediocre. We dont know how much JV will improve, or how well Rudy And Lowry will play in their contract years. If we finish +500 and in 7th, its a lot easier to improve on that then it is to improve on a bottom 5 team, where your only hope of contending in JV's prime will be landing the next Lebron. So I disagree that tanking is our only option.

But I do agree that if Masai gets an indication that Lowry/Gay want to skip town, then he should move them by the deadline at the latest.

We had a pretty good sample size last season of how they will play, I'm convinced they will be the same and possibly a little better but that still doesn't take into the fact that all the bubble teams improved and there are 6 playoff locks right now. Like I said, 7-12 seed which is a treadmill and there is no need to go forward since we are capped out.

Taking a step back is must when the core doesn't have a huge ceiling and we are capped out.

We are capped out for one year, maybe two at most if Gay and Lowry resign. Even if we wait until 2015-2016 with this core the oldest player will be 29. This gives us a couple year window to evaluate how to improve the core, and I disagree that tanking is the only option to do it, though I agree that it is a potential option if say we start 4-19 again.

How are you going to improve the core when the team is already capped out? You're not going to. It's going to be the same treadmill team as you see today. Masai is not wasting 2 years to watch a mediocre team.

Tanking is a potential option even if the team is .500 because Masai again has to get value for Lowry and Gay and there is no use in us grabbing the 8th seed when both Lowry and Gay can walk after the year.

This argument is going in circles so let's agree to disagree.

[Chevy Chase]

So lets set an arbitrary date of 27 games into the year (1/3).

A. What record do we need to "go for it"; which pretty means do nothing.

B. What record is sufficient for "total tank"; which would also mean do nothing since they would suck on their own.

C. What record is "mediocre"; which would require downgrades to increase the lottery balls.


A. 15 + wins
B. 8-14 wins
C. < 8 Wins

[BBS22]

With our lack of cap space, if we don't have a top 4 team in the east you have to blow this team up. We shouldn't be struggling with 7-9 spot with this much committed.

Mind you I want to blow it up asap (Jonas excluded).

Fools gold = Fields, Gay, Lowry, Demar, Amir and close to the luxury tax.

[Reignman]

We keep hearing from people how everyone on this team minus Val/Ross/Acy have "peaked" but they don't really provide much context beyond age (basically a cop out answer).

I find this a bit laughable considering what we see in the actual games. To use an extreme example, players typically win rings around the age of 30. You might not see huge statistical changes but players can make subtle changes to their games that heavily influence their overall impact.

Looking at our starting lineup I believe it's reasonable to expect every starter to have a career year but we need to put some context around it. And if they do, that could impact our overall win loss record.

JV/Ross/Acy - I'm lumping these guys together because they will all be sophs and it's a fair assumption that each will improve in their own way. As far as impact, we NEED JV to take a big step forward due to his role and the position he plays. His development will have a direct impact on our win/loss record.

Demar - Entering his 5th year at age 24. Clearly not at his peak. Adding a reliable 3 not only impacts his personal advanced stats but it could have a major impact on our team play by creating space for himself/teammates. I think improvement from Demar should be expected, incremental or not.

Lowry - Last summer he was ill and then he got injured in camp. As the season went on he got injured again. This summer we've heard he's getting in shape and we all know what a contract year can do. Lowry overall stats are already impressive but at age 27 with good health and a contract on his mind I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this guy put up a career best season.

Gay - First time in his career that he starts the season as the bona fide #1 guy. Has a full training camp with the team. Had vision correction surgery and seems to be improving his physique. With Gay I'm not sure what kind've statistical improvements he'll make but as I mentioned above, by polishing certain aspects he could have an even bigger impact on this team's overall performance.

Amir - We all love the guy and we know the numbers, he's just awesome. However, people forget Amir is only 25 years in this upcoming season will be the first time in his career that he'll be starting the season as the bona fide starting PF on this team. Over the last few years we wasted so much time and wins with guys like Bargs, now it's finally Amir's turn to show that he deserves that role period. And it's not like he's done improving, just look at his range, he takes it further and further out each year and we're even seeing improvements in his face up and post game. Hell, last season I saw major improvement in Amir's passing game. I think Amir is similar to Gay in that his numbers might not have a huge statistical variance but he may be able to impact the game even more than he has in the past.

Now we cannot definitively say that this will all happen and we don't know exactly what this means for the team but if all our starters have career years is it a safe bet that this will have a positive impact on our win/loss record?

If people want to look at previous bests for some context we can take the discussion there. I can post them if needed.

[StMikes31]

Even if they do, we'll still hit the 7th seed.

[djsunyc]

quite possible. you forgot fields. i think if he can get back to 33-35% from 3, that alone would be a major major impact.

[Reignman]

Even if they do, we'll still hit the 7th seed.

The facts you provide and the argument you make is compelling. You've given me a lot to think about. I'll need to take this away and really wrap my head around it.

[Reignman]

quite possible. you forgot fields. i think if he can get back to 33-35% from 3, that alone would be a major major impact.

I was mainly looking at the starters and I really have no idea what Fields' role will be and what he'll look like. If he does starting hitting the 3 ball at a decent clip then we're all the better for it because I have a feeling that Ross might not be ready for a big role.

[Basketball_Jones]

I really think Fields 3 ball is gone for good. His confidence is shook. I do think he could be effective in kind of a lead guard, primary ball handler/play maker of the bench unit type of guy. Like a poor mans Doug Christie playing point off the bench.

[ThereIsNoSpork]

It's just as possible as them all(except Val ) having awful years. That's what comes with a team of inefficient long 2 chuckers and injury prone fattys


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[ThereIsNoSpork]

Even if they do, we'll still hit the 7th seed.

The facts you provide and the argument you make is compelling. You've given me a lot to think about. I'll need to take this away and really wrap my head around it.

I don't get it.. If we get the 7th seed you should be happy. Wtf are you expecting from this scrub team? 4th seed?


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[Blast Tyrant]

I agree. I can't believe the amount of posters who want to tear apart our starting line up. The same people who complain about Colangelo want to change the entire roster every year much like the high-collared wonder himself. We have a solid group in our starting line up and need to give them a chance to organically grow. Think of how many people were saying the Pacers were a 7 seed at best a couple years ago. Defense wins championships, and our starting line up is one of the best defensive units in the entire league.

I expect big jumps from Demar and Jonas this year. Those two guys happen to play the 2 weakest positions in the league and both look to have star potential. We should be looking to dominate most teams at the 2 and 5 on a nighly basis while having above average starters who are very good defensively at our other 3 spots. If I hear someone suggest we tank or trade Derozan for some scrub one more time I'm gonna have a breakdown.

[pbj]

I mean.. it's possible, I always have expectations like these going into the season but then someone rolls an ankle and misses training camp and he's out of sync for 40 games.. or we lose a few early games to blown calls and morale drops.. or something minor like that just puts one or more players in a downward spiral that ultimately means they fall short.

I will say it seems more likely than usual - JV looks hungry as a Snorlax and still has Int'l games coming up, Demar is motivated by his man crush in Gay, Lowry is on a contract year, Rudy's got a lot to prove and Amir will be Amir with more minutes.

Not that confident in Ross to be honest but we'll see how it goes.

[barrist]

Now we cannot definitively say that this will all happen and we don't know exactly what this means for the team but if all our starters have career years is it a safe bet that this will have a positive impact on our win/loss record?

Of course it's a safe bet. You really needed to ask whether we'd be better if every player had a career year? Even then, any objective observer would still see the team as a middle of the road 7-8 seed.

But the safer bet is some will improve (rooks), some will stay the same (Derozan, Gay), some will be in contract years but will likely miss a handful of games from injury(Lowry). Thus, struggling to get to the playoffs again.