Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread

[LyricalRico]

^ Have to assume they decline the Singleton/Vesely options, so that's only $41M right? If the cap is $62M, then that's more than max cap space.

[Rafael122]

^ Have to assume they decline the Singleton/Vesely options, so that's only $41M right? If the cap is $62M, then that's more than max cap space.

I think so...but our math could be off. October 31 is the deadline for next year's options to be picked up. We'll see what happens then.

[Rafael122]

Bumped: Sham Sports has updated their salary tables. Here's the Wizards:

http://data.shamsports.com/content/page ... izards.jsp

John Wall's contract is going to be very interesting. If we sign him to a max, that leaves us with roughly $12 million in cap space, if he takes a slightly lesser deal, it would give us an opportunity to go after another max guy but you run into the problem of having 3 guys making at least $10 million. Hopefully Ernie uses this as a pitch, Wall is still young enough that barring injuries he'll get another max contract down the road anyway.

[fishercob]

Something to keep in mind: as many have pointed out, the 2014 free agent class doesn't set up all that well for us. But in summer of 2015, all of these guys stand to be unrestricted (age at the start of the 15-16 season in parentheses):

Kevin Love (27)
Lamarcus Aldridge (30)
Paul Millsap (30)
Marc Gasol (30)
Boozer (nearly 34)
Omer Asik (29)
Deandre Jordan (27)
Tyson Chandler (33)

There are some less attractive targets on that small list and some very attractive ones.

2016:
Durant (28)
Horford (30)
Noah (31)
Hibbert (29)
Bosh (32)
Love (28)
Ryan Anderson (28)
Thad Young (28)
Nene (34)
Brook Lopez (28)

[Severn Hoos]

I'm floored by the sidebar article from that shamsports page:

It's official - Keith Bogans will earn $5,058,198 next year. All guaranteed. Keith Bogans.

Happy? You should be.
Keith Bogans has an uncanny knack for being in the right place at the right time. He has become throughout his NBA career the archetypal three-and-D wing role player, the kind of piece you want around star point guards or big men (or both), who'll defend opposing stars for a few pesky minutes a night and not risk anything more offensively than taking some open threes. Yet despite not being significantly above average at either, and in no way any more of a stand-out talent in relation to the dozens of other suitable candidates for the role, Bogans's medicority is nonetheless a sure thing, a known commodity, a risk-free contributor who'll neither say nor do nothing confrontational. Teams like that, and, because of this, he has time and again landed starting roles, often on competitive teams. In a talent vacuum, he's not worth this opportunity or luxury, yet by continuing to land these gigs, Bogans is doing something right.

Normally, of course, this role doesn't earn very much. Keith has mostly been a rookie salary player throughout his career, only rarely exceeding it, and this reflect his minimal contributions. None of this is meant pejoratively - Bogans plays a role, plays it fairly well, and yet the role is small and replacable, so so is its salary.

This, however, is all change in light of Keith's new contract.

The rebuilding Boston Celtics insisted upon Jason Terry (and, primarily, his salary) being included in the Paul Pierce / Kevin Garnett trade with the Nets. Either he or Courtney Lee . Brooklyn could afford it and were prepared to pay it, but, in light of all their recent roster turnover, they didn't have the necessarily medium-size expiring contracts that are so useful in trade scenarios that would have facilitated it. In order to provide the necessary salary to match, then, they had to sign and trade someone.

Into the breach steps Bogans, who will now earn $5,058,198 in 2013-14. The salary is fully guaranteed, as the first year of a sign-and-trade always has to be, and even though the 2014-15 ($5,285,838) and 2015-16 ($5,285,838) salaries are fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date, the huge price hike for a man who would have done well to earn the veteran's minimum of $1,399,507 this year is noteworthily enormous. The latter two years are largely token, and are only include because sign-and-trades require a contract of either three or four years in length, yet in a further bonus, they provide Boston with a similarly huge trade chip. As Brooklyn found out, you need contracts in the $3-$6 million range that are either expiring or unguaranteed in order to maximise your trade machination possibilities. And Boston now has one. It'll cost them a few wasted million on a player not deserving of it, but this is a small price to pay. (Sort of.)

In dealing with this website's self-imposed mandate for overevaluating salary minutiae, it is worth noting quite how this situation has come to pass.

You can only sign-and-trade your own free agents who were on your roster on the final day of the previous season, and you can only do so with some form of Bird rights. Non-Bird rights - the rather weak version of Bird rights afforded to any player who qualifies for them by not changing teams as a free agent for one season - suffice for this purpose, as non-Bird rights are still Bird rights. (This is confusing, and is a result of a mix-up between actual CBA terms and the colloquialisms and allegories widely used in their analysis. It suffices here, however.) Yet the non-Bird exception isn't very useful. It only allows you to re-sign a player to a new salary that begins at either 120% of the player's previous annual salary, or 120% of the minimum, whichever is greater. And considering that Keith earned the minimum last year, he could thus only sign under the non-Bird exception for $1,399,507 / 100 * 120 = $1,679,408. Not nearly enough.

More useful are early Bird and full Bird rights. With full Bird rights, which come from not changing teams as a free agent for three seasons, you can re-sign your own free agents to a contract starting at the maximum, and with early Bird rights, which come from not changing teams as a free agent for two seasons, you can re-sign your own free agents to a contract starting at the value of that season's Mid-Level exception.

This latter point is what enriched Keith Bogans, and what saved the Pierce/Garnett deal. Via a technicality, or two, Bogans qualified for early Bird rights.

Bogans was signed to a guaranteed remainder-of-the-season minimum salary deal on February 1st 2012, yet he suffered a season-ending injury a week later, and was waived on February 14th. As we've seen in previous posts, partial seasons count as full seasons for Bird clock and years-of-experience purposes, so those thirteen days nonetheless count towards a Bird clock - nevertheless, the fact that he was waived would, you'd think, reset it again.

However, it doesn't. Not necessarily. Without signing an NBA contract with anyone else in the interim, Bogans re-signed with the Nets on July 19th 2012, and played the full season with the Nets without being waived again. He therefore was able to complete two seasons (the partial one suffices as a whole one) without changing teams as a free agent, and thus was an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, and was eligible for the non-Bird exception. It is true that Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents must not have cleared waivers in order to be so eligible for early Bird rights, yet an extra caveat is that that only needs to be true of their most recent contract. Therefore, even though he was once waived, by completing his 2012/13 contract without ever being waived, and not signing with a different team in between the two, Bogans qualified for early Bird rights. And early Bird rights were the only thing allowing him to earn MLE money in a sign-and-trade.

Only by signing Keith Bogans for five meaningless games, then, were Brooklyn able to trade for Pierce and Garnett. We needn't lie and pretend this was the plan; it's more a fortituous happenstance. Yet whatever brought them here, this technicality has redefined the team.

The lesson, as always - no transaction is too trivial. There are team building ramifications to everything. So never stop looking for them.

[nuposse04]

So just a bit thinking out loud...Say UTAH gets a top 3 pick and takes Randle. I think the majority of people have Randle as a 4. I wonder if UTAH would be inclined to let Favors depart via S&T.

[FAH1223]

So just a bit thinking out loud...Say UTAH gets a top 3 pick and takes Randle. I think the majority of people have Randle as a 4. I wonder if UTAH would be inclined to let Favors depart via S&T.

No. Favors and Kanter are thier future. They are very young. They are what they got back for Deron Williams.

Favors will be re-signed.

[fishercob]

I'm floored by the sidebar article from that shamsports page:

It's official - Keith Bogans will earn $5,058,198 next year. All guaranteed. Keith Bogans.

Happy? You should be.
Keith Bogans has an uncanny knack for being in the right place at the right time. He has become throughout his NBA career the archetypal three-and-D wing role player, the kind of piece you want around star point guards or big men (or both), who'll defend opposing stars for a few pesky minutes a night and not risk anything more offensively than taking some open threes. Yet despite not being significantly above average at either, and in no way any more of a stand-out talent in relation to the dozens of other suitable candidates for the role, Bogans's medicority is nonetheless a sure thing, a known commodity, a risk-free contributor who'll neither say nor do nothing confrontational. Teams like that, and, because of this, he has time and again landed starting roles, often on competitive teams. In a talent vacuum, he's not worth this opportunity or luxury, yet by continuing to land these gigs, Bogans is doing something right.

Normally, of course, this role doesn't earn very much. Keith has mostly been a rookie salary player throughout his career, only rarely exceeding it, and this reflect his minimal contributions. None of this is meant pejoratively - Bogans plays a role, plays it fairly well, and yet the role is small and replacable, so so is its salary.

This, however, is all change in light of Keith's new contract.

The rebuilding Boston Celtics insisted upon Jason Terry (and, primarily, his salary) being included in the Paul Pierce / Kevin Garnett trade with the Nets. Either he or Courtney Lee . Brooklyn could afford it and were prepared to pay it, but, in light of all their recent roster turnover, they didn't have the necessarily medium-size expiring contracts that are so useful in trade scenarios that would have facilitated it. In order to provide the necessary salary to match, then, they had to sign and trade someone.

Into the breach steps Bogans, who will now earn $5,058,198 in 2013-14. The salary is fully guaranteed, as the first year of a sign-and-trade always has to be, and even though the 2014-15 ($5,285,838) and 2015-16 ($5,285,838) salaries are fully unguaranteed with no guarantee date, the huge price hike for a man who would have done well to earn the veteran's minimum of $1,399,507 this year is noteworthily enormous. The latter two years are largely token, and are only include because sign-and-trades require a contract of either three or four years in length, yet in a further bonus, they provide Boston with a similarly huge trade chip. As Brooklyn found out, you need contracts in the $3-$6 million range that are either expiring or unguaranteed in order to maximise your trade machination possibilities. And Boston now has one. It'll cost them a few wasted million on a player not deserving of it, but this is a small price to pay. (Sort of.)

In dealing with this website's self-imposed mandate for overevaluating salary minutiae, it is worth noting quite how this situation has come to pass.

You can only sign-and-trade your own free agents who were on your roster on the final day of the previous season, and you can only do so with some form of Bird rights. Non-Bird rights - the rather weak version of Bird rights afforded to any player who qualifies for them by not changing teams as a free agent for one season - suffice for this purpose, as non-Bird rights are still Bird rights. (This is confusing, and is a result of a mix-up between actual CBA terms and the colloquialisms and allegories widely used in their analysis. It suffices here, however.) Yet the non-Bird exception isn't very useful. It only allows you to re-sign a player to a new salary that begins at either 120% of the player's previous annual salary, or 120% of the minimum, whichever is greater. And considering that Keith earned the minimum last year, he could thus only sign under the non-Bird exception for $1,399,507 / 100 * 120 = $1,679,408. Not nearly enough.

More useful are early Bird and full Bird rights. With full Bird rights, which come from not changing teams as a free agent for three seasons, you can re-sign your own free agents to a contract starting at the maximum, and with early Bird rights, which come from not changing teams as a free agent for two seasons, you can re-sign your own free agents to a contract starting at the value of that season's Mid-Level exception.

This latter point is what enriched Keith Bogans, and what saved the Pierce/Garnett deal. Via a technicality, or two, Bogans qualified for early Bird rights.

Bogans was signed to a guaranteed remainder-of-the-season minimum salary deal on February 1st 2012, yet he suffered a season-ending injury a week later, and was waived on February 14th. As we've seen in previous posts, partial seasons count as full seasons for Bird clock and years-of-experience purposes, so those thirteen days nonetheless count towards a Bird clock - nevertheless, the fact that he was waived would, you'd think, reset it again.

However, it doesn't. Not necessarily. Without signing an NBA contract with anyone else in the interim, Bogans re-signed with the Nets on July 19th 2012, and played the full season with the Nets without being waived again. He therefore was able to complete two seasons (the partial one suffices as a whole one) without changing teams as a free agent, and thus was an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, and was eligible for the non-Bird exception. It is true that Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents must not have cleared waivers in order to be so eligible for early Bird rights, yet an extra caveat is that that only needs to be true of their most recent contract. Therefore, even though he was once waived, by completing his 2012/13 contract without ever being waived, and not signing with a different team in between the two, Bogans qualified for early Bird rights. And early Bird rights were the only thing allowing him to earn MLE money in a sign-and-trade.

Only by signing Keith Bogans for five meaningless games, then, were Brooklyn able to trade for Pierce and Garnett. We needn't lie and pretend this was the plan; it's more a fortituous happenstance. Yet whatever brought them here, this technicality has redefined the team.

The lesson, as always - no transaction is too trivial. There are team building ramifications to everything. So never stop looking for them.

Good for Bogans. And by the way, just another tiny little thing that makes the Maynor signing so silly. They could have brought back AJ Price for the minimum and he would have accumulated his Bird Rights, and then we'd have the ability to include him as a similar chip for a one year MLE deal in a S&T.

[LyricalRico]

C'mon fish. You may dislike the Maynor signing, and that's fine. But you can't expect a team to keep a guy solely for the reason that he can be signed-and-traded in future years. Even the article said the whole Bogans thing was an accident. It's interesting that it worked out that way, but no team is going to plan their roster based on making sure they keep minimum salary guys they may not want just to preserve sign and trade opportunities down the road.

[fishercob]

C'mon fish. You may dislike the Maynor signing, and that's fine. But you can't expect a team to keep a guy solely for the reason that he can be signed-and-traded in future years. Even the article said the whole Bogans thing was an accident. It's interesting that it worked out that way, but no team is going to plan their roster based on making sure they keep minimum salary guys they may not want just to preserve sign and trade opportunities down the road.

Having that option is not a reason to keep a guy, agreed. But in absence of any better replacement, it's a silly thing to give up. I'm sure it never even occurred to Ernie.

[No-Man]

Don't waste money, wait for Durant.

[Ruzious]

Don't waste money, wait for Durant.

Fine, but only if Lebron and Wall agree to sign here for less than the max.

[fishercob]

One thing to keep in mind with an eye towards next summer: Nikola Pekovic still hasn't worked out a long term deal with Minnesota. There's a chance (though I would guess less than 50/50) that he would play for the QO this year so he could be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Ultimately I'd like to see him play for the QO -- it would create uncertainty around the team that could help push Love out. Plus, if a team with cap room (that isn't us) throws big money at Pek next summer, that's one less threat for some of the more attractive 2015 targets.

[theboomking]

We are going to be competing with the Lakers for FA in 2014. I don't see that going well. I think our best hope isn't signing a big name FA, but acquiring a player in a sign and trade.

[Rafael122]

Rough outline, using Wall's 5 year/$80 mil extension. I've got it pegged at starting around $13.9, maybe $14 million in the 1st year:

2014 Salaries:
Wall: $14
Nene: $13
Webster: $5.3
Beal: $4.5
Porter: $4.4
Maynor: $2.1
Rice: 816K

Committed salary would be around $43.3 million, roughly.

Add in Vesely and Singleton's contracts, that bumps it up to around $50 million.

And that's assuming Okafor or Seraphin are not brought back.

So they either bring back Vesely and Singleton, have enough money to sign a Tier 2 type of free agent or Vesely and Singleton are gone, and they have enough money to offer the max or near max at someone (Cousins) with just enough money to get 2-3 either guys on smaller salaries.

I would be impressed if the Wizards can pull this off. Doubtful.

[Dat2U]

We are going to be competing with the Lakers for FA in 2014. I don't see that going well. I think our best hope isn't signing a big name FA, but acquiring a player in a sign and trade.

We aren't even competing bro. I fully expect this 2014 cap room to go bye bye at some this offseason or next season. Ernie doesn't have the stomach for free agency. I think he's made that quite clear with his moves in the past.

[Rafael122]

So it seems like there's been questions from certain members about the cap space and the free agents next year, therefore the thread gets bumped a bit.

I've been thinking about the idea of the Wizards keeping Ariza and Gortat and using the MLE to round out the roster. Here's what I've come up with if they keep both guys:

PG - Wall/Maynor
SG - Beal/Webster/Rice
SF - Ariza/Porter
PF - Nene
C - Gortat

9 guys, with 6 roster spots to fill up. The MLE is roughly $5.3 million and can be used on one guy or broken down into several guys. They need a combo guard, backup power forward and center.

My preferred targets:

1. Kris Humphries - not sure what he'd ask for in the open market, but he's currently making $12 million and I doubt he'll get half that on his next contract. His per 36 suggests a guy averaging close to a double double. He'd be an ideal guy to get as a backup power forward.

2. Steve Blake - he's making $4 million this year, probably won't get that on the open market, could be a good buy low option as a third point guard.

3. Kosta Koufos - making $2 mil this year, could be a cheap candidate as a backup center. Averaging 7 and 7 in just 21 minutes of play.

4. Jodie Meeks - solid three point shooter, not sure what kind of payday he's looking at but in case they can't get another point guard on the team, he's insurance in case of an injury.


I really think the best case scenario for everyone is if Porter shows enough that they are comfortable letting Ariza walk next offseason. Keep Gortat, and use whatever remaining money to fill out the holes. There aren't any decent center options other than Gortat on the free agent market, and having three good small forwards is more of a luxury for a team like the Wizards.

I like Humphries though and Meeks may not ask for much more than the $1.5 mil he's making now.

[ozthegandp]

do u watch the lakers. Blake was playing great before his injury. no way he makes less than 4 next yr.

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[ozthegandp]

on second look he has been pretty injury prone the last few yrs. perfect he'll fit right in.

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[Rafael122]

Question, can the team re-sign Ariza and Booker, renounce everyone else, and sign Greg Monroe?