Chaos Revenant wrote:EG is going to pretty much back into a perennial 50-55 win team, and we have an outside chance of winning a title once LeBron leaves his peak and the Heatles are eventually broken up. It annoys me, seeing I've wanted this guy gone since 2007 or so because he sucks at his job. But fact is, we hit on our high lottery picks. Wall could be an MVP-level player as early as next year, Beal projects to be an All-Star if not a superstar, Porter will at worst be a high quality role player, we're loaded with veteran depth, and most of the East is tanking for Wiggins. This is assuming Ves, Singleton continue to be busts and KS continues to underperform - if Singleton becomes Baby Ariza (Ariza was pretty bad his first 2 years don't forget), Ves becomes Birdman, and KS becomes Brandon Bass with more defense, then all bets are off. Not that those are likely occurrences but it could theoretically happen. And in 2014, we could add a Bosh, Monroe or Cousins.
Let's say in 2 years Wall's peak is somewhere close to current (not peak) CP3, which is a 25-27 PER player with top-flight defense, Beal peaks as something similar to Ray Allen, Porter is the Middle East oil sheik's Tayshaun Prince, and we've added Cousins and Nene is still producing at a fairly high level, albeit in 28-30 MPG (and would be an expiring)
That's a starting lineup that can win an NBA title. EG may well build a championship contender by simply not blowing a few draft picks and doing a half decent job of managing the cap.
I remember reading a GM review a while ago and basically what it came down to was, if you get enough top 5 picks and you luck into having the right player available, you get that stud player and all the sudden your are the GM of a good to great team before long.
SA has done lots of things very well, but if they didn't luck into having the picks to get David Robinson and then Tim Duncan, then you are talking about a very different SA team. Those two with talent and personality are the essence of that franchise. All the coaching and system wouldn't have produced the same without those two on the court and in the locker to help it take root.
You post echos the long view I have been posting over the years while people here have just been venting frustration about how the Wizards suck and will always suck. Well sucking was part of the plan to get those high picks. Wall, Beal and now Otto. That is the style of rebuild lots of us wanted to finally see. The Miami or Boston model was the other way but they is going to be harder with the new CBA.
So now they have a few young studs they should be keeping for a good while. And they have vets and a deeper bench. They have a top D which many of us wanted compared to the Gil/AJ days. And for me, I like the coach better then back then as well.
So they have come a long way. They total rebuilt from the days of Gun Gate. And they are still a young team with room to grow. And with Wall, Beal and Otto so young, they would actually be best off not looking for a young front court like a Cousins, but instead finding vets that are at least 27/28 or older to play up there. For now, that's Nene and Okafor. In the future, who knows. They are a year away from being able to go after likes of Paul Gasol, KG types and going for it all. They could have done that this year, but I think it would be a year I guess, but starting next year will be the sweet spot.
For this year, given what they have, its a run to the playoffs to get Wall and Beal that experience. And for Otto, its awesome. He should get that experience in year one. For Beal it would only be his second year when he gets it, which is awesome. Wall is the one that had to take the biggest lumps. He had to wait the longer and live through the most instability and losing.
Now if Kevin S (coming into year 4) and Ves ( coming into year 3), can surprise with their development, that makes a huge difference. Then you would have a couple young players who can come off the bench reliably for a few more years while the more mature vets pull the cart up front. Then in maybe two more years, one of them is able to start next to a solid vet while the other remains a top notch back up.
Next summer their will be lots of options again. But if it ends up they extend Okafor two years and resign Trevor A at good value, I wouldn't be upset at all. Keep a solid group of vets around and let Wall, Beal and Otto develop into future mature 27 year old studs. Hell, in that model, I would even extend Ves. 4.4M is a risk on would take on him putting it together with this much more solid team around him.
