Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[Nivek]

We can "suppose" things about Price, or we can check the available data and see if they match perceptions. Last season (per 82games.com), the offense produced 101.0 pts per 100 possessions with Price on the floor vs. 101.1 when he was not in the game.

Sorta like Maynor, Price's offensive on/off numbers have been up and down -- slightly better when he was on the floor in his rookie season; significantly better (+3.2) with him on the floor in his 2nd season; significantly worse (-5.7) with him on the floor his last year in Indy.

For his career, it works out that his teams have produced 104.2 points per 100 possessions when he's been in the game, and they've produced 104.1 points per 100 possessions when he's been on the bench. Which is fine for a backup PG, AND is about the same as the career on/off numbers for Maynor. Neither guy is making much of a difference for his team.

Back to last season with the Wizards: here are the differences that show up offensively when Price was in/out of the game --

Slight decline in efg -- .466 with to .480 without.

Slightly HIGHER assist rate (percentage of field goals that were assisted) -- 62% with Price to 62% without.

The team's offensive rebounding was better, but I'm quite sure that had nothing to do with Price.

Per minute turnovers were the same. The team had two fewer FTA per 48 minutes (I wish 82games wouldn't round to the whole number).

All of which suggests that Price fulfilled his role adequately -- solid caretaker backup PG. Not to say that Maynor won't or can't do this. Realistically speaking, neither guy is likely to be a difference maker. Price has been the better player, though. And he would have played for less.

[dobrojim]

hearing the positive reports on Nene and Beal, I am going to go with
a pre-pre-season prediction of 47 wins. Obviously this number will be
subject to possible revision before the actual season prediction.

[barelyawake]

Maynor backed (and mentored) the youngest team in NBA history to the playoffs (and then the conference finals). He has logged meaningful time in hard fought playoff games (that he won) -- outassisting Harden and Westbrook one game in a very tough Memphis series. Price played one minute in Indy's victory over the Heat. And that's really his only significant playoff victory. Maynor is not only a willing and good mentor, he has always spoken in interviews about learning himself and then passing that knowledge on (since day one in the NBA). And every coach he has played for has mentioned his propensity to do so. Not only are his playoffs experiences more valuable, but the teammates and coaches he has taken wisdom from are much more substantial. For our situation this season, I would take Maynor over Price ten times out of ten... and twice on Sunday. We need a leader when Wall is on the bench. Maynor, in every sense, is a leader.

[dobrojim]

I wish I shared your confidence BA. Best case may be as Nivek says, not much
discernible difference between the 2. I thought Price was a decent backup last
year with his biggest problem being that he got hurt while Wall was out which
left us with the worst PGs of any team in the league and a 4-28 record.

Maynor may have a bigger upside but neither have proven much in the Assoc.

[Dat2U]

Payit, I think our roster will be radically changed from years past. When you ask, "How would you like seeing Harrington/Seraphin," I severely doubt we will. I believe you will see one of Ves, Seraphin or Booker step-up. I believe Porter will be a useful piece. And I think you'll see line-ups like:

Maynor/Beal/Ariza/Booker/Okafor
Maynor/Webster/Porter/Harrington/Okafor
Maynor/Webster/Porter/Harrington/Nene
Maynor/Rice/Webster/Booker/Nene
Wall/Rice/Webster/Booker/Okafor
Wall/Beal/Porter/Okafor/Nene
Maynor/Webster/Harrington/Ariza/Okafor
Wall/Beal/Webster/Okafor/Nene
Wall/Beal/Harrington/Okafor/Nene
Wall/Beal/Harrington/Booker/Seraphin
Wall/Webster/Harrington/Booker/Seraphin
Maynor/Beal/Webster/Ves/Nene

We have so many options at this point, it may take some time for the coach to land-on the most effective rotations. And that's a good thing and unlike most Wiz benches of the past. And meanwhile we will be exploring trading options. As I said in another thread, for not blowing our wad, we upgraded our bench a good deal. Is it a championship bench? Absolutely not. But, that's not the point. It's a bench to get us to the playoffs (and mentor our young players) while still maintaining flexibility. And that was accomplished.

And if injury causes us to tank, I'll cry all the way til we go into a historic draft with Wall, Beal and Porter under contract and cap for a max big. What a woeful fate. Anyway you spin it, we are watching a very good team evolve (if management has the gumption to make the big moves).

When you say options, are you talking options in general or actual quality options? I'd lean towards the former, which really may not be a good thing.

Did we really upgrade the bench? Well only if the new acquisitions in Maynor & Harrington play significantly better than they did last season and in Maynor's case, his entire career. If both are basically the same player and Harrington is stealing minutes from Booker, then we've actually downgraded... but at least these two were once regarded as NBA quality talent so we can feel better that were relying on someone Ernie didn't draft and has an established name in NBA circles.

I don't see Porter or Rice making much of an impact at this stage. At least not with Webster, Ariza, Beal & Temple in front of them.

[barelyawake]

Dat, first off, Harrington's last season shouldn't be counted. They were trying to tank and he was injured. A healthy Harrington is leagues better than most of our bench last season. Porter went from being overrated to now ridiculously underrated. You think our number three pick won't get significant time? And you don't think he will be significantly better than Martin or Singleton? I think that's a great undersell. And you are not accounting for rotating the line-up, so players play different minutes in different positions than last season. And you aren't accounting for development.

By options, I mean that rather than having to hide players within the line-up, we have options that actually bring something to the table. By the All Star break, if healthy, we will be happy with our bench (again, considering that we didn't go all-in and blow our future).

[LyricalRico]

By options, I mean that rather than having to hide players within the line-up, we have options that actually bring something to the table. By the All Star break, if healthy, we will be happy with our bench

[payitforward]

...I believe you will see one of Ves, Seraphin or Booker step-up. I believe Porter will be a useful piece.

Look, respectfully, what does it mean that you "think" one of these things is going to happen? Does it affect anything? Is it a kind of analysis?

Booker doesn't need to step up; he just needs to be healthy and play something approaching 2000 minutes. The guy's a very effective player, and the 4 is where we are really hurting for a backup.

...for not blowing our wad, we upgraded our bench a good deal. ...It's a bench to get us to the playoffs (and mentor our young players) while still maintaining flexibility.

No question that Harrington is a perfectly good value at the vet minimum -- and the league pays some of those salaries, as you know, which makes him an even bigger bargain. Nor would I suggest that there's an obviously better alternative at that $$$. But "upgrade"? Only in the sense that he may keep a couple of really bad players in their seats.

Fans always think their guys are better than they are. Keep in mind that you chose to call a guy Orlando waived -- even though he'll cost them $15m! -- a top-ten backup power forward in the NBA. It's the same w/ Maynor over Price. Tell any story you want about him, he's still never played well.

[barelyawake]

Payit, what I mean by "stepping-up" is that we have three guys in a contract year. All three have shown flashes (some much longer flashes than others -- one merely in Summer League). All three are playing for their lives. And only one of them needs to emerge to put in significant minutes. We are no longer an obviously tanking org. (which does affect play). We will be expected to win. That changes work habits offcourt and effort within games. We have real, experienced, pass first, point guards feeding these guys. And we have a team chockful of mentors. There are actual reasons to believe that one (or two) of those guys do better, or more consistently, than previously.

As far as Harrington, he bitched about them not wanting to win. He bitched about not being on a contender. He thought they lied to him, and confronted them about it. They cut him. And as soon as they did, every single sportswriter speculated that he would go to a contender and make a great addition as first man off the bench.

I'm the last person to overhype our players. My history has not been to do so, in fact, it's usually the opposite (see my history with this board over Kwame and Blatche). And no this board, lately, usually does not overhype players. Again, the opposite. People like to bemoan every move EG makes. As I said with Price, people whined about getting him, and then whined about getting rid of him. Someone has to point out when that lamenting is unwarranted. This offseason, IMO, it is.

[DCZards]

Maynor may be only slightly better Price...or maybe it's the other way around. In either case, I think the Zards made the right move in choosing Maynor, who is much better at running an offense than Price and, imo, is a better on court leader, passer and playmaker.

[hands11]

I wish I shared your confidence BA. Best case may be as Nivek says, not much
discernible difference between the 2. I thought Price was a decent backup last
year with his biggest problem being that he got hurt while Wall was out which
left us with the worst PGs of any team in the league and a 4-28 record.

Maynor may have a bigger upside but neither have proven much in the Assoc.

Gotta hope he runs the offense better, as he was billed. That's why they went in the direction they did. Price wasn't very good at it.

What's really going to help is if Beal improved his handles, which he said he was working on with Wall. Beal will be out there more minutes. If he improved, its going to be nice to watch him and Wall play off each other with the remaining players cutting and spotting up.

[hands11]

8th seed would be a disappointment.

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... -vsbobcats

[payitforward]

Payit, what I mean by "stepping-up" is that we have three guys in a contract year. All three have shown flashes (some much longer flashes than others -- one merely in Summer League). All three are playing for their lives. And only one of them needs to emerge to put in significant minutes. We are no longer an obviously tanking org. (which does effect play). We will be expected to win. That changes work habits and effort within games. We have real, experienced, pass first, point guards feeding these guys. And we have a team chockful of mentors. There are actual reasons to believe that one (or two) of those guys do better, or more consistently, than previously.

As far as Harrington, he bitched about them not wanting to win. He bitched about not being on a contender. He thought they lied to him, and confronted them about it. They cut him. And as soon as they did, every single sportswriter speculated that he would go to a contender and make a great addition as first man off the bench.

I'm the last person to overhype our players. My history has not been to do so, in fact, it's usually the opposite (see my history with this board over Blatche). And no this board, lately, usually does not overhype players. Again, the opposite. People like to bemoan every move EG makes. As I said with Price, people whined about getting him, and then whined about getting rid of him. Someone has to point out when that lamenting is unwarranted. This offseason, IMO, it is.

Ok, you make yourself and your POV clear. There's no point in debating the above stuff any longer.

Btw, I think that if healthy we are a shoe-in to be a playoff team; I think we are likely an above .500 team. So I'm not downplaying our improvement. Does that mean Ernie's done a good job? No, it's obvious he hasn't done a good job. But he did get lucky in the lottery a couple of times, and he did make a good choice in Beal.

My biggest worries are the health and level of play of Nene -- he wasn't good last year, but he was also not really ready physically -- and whether Okafor can sustain performance levels. As to whether Singleton, Vesely and/or Seraphin will step up, what I really want is for them not to play much!

The 3250 minutes they combined to play cost us mightily. Another ineffective 2550 minutes were logged by guys no longer here (crawford, mack, livingston, barron, martin, pargo...). Had health (and other factors) enabled us to distribute those minutes to Booker, Wall, Nene, Beal, Okafor, Ariza, Temple, Price and Webster -- we'd have been likely to win something like 47 games and maybe more.

Now, that's unrealistic, because we were never going to play only 9 guys over the whole year. But it does point to the fact that the best moves of this off-season were re-signing Temple, letting Martin go, and the fact that the rest of the scrubs are now history and not part of the present-day Wizards.

[keynote]

42.

I'm not sure if it's the answer to life, the universe, and everything, but I think it's the answer to the OP's question, anyway.

[AnotherFinn]

35

same as last two years, not going to change until its get beaten...

[DCZards]

43 wins...the health of 4 guys...Wall, Nene, Beal and Okafor...is the key.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Payit, what I mean by "stepping-up" is that we have three guys in a contract year. All three have shown flashes (some much longer flashes than others -- one merely in Summer League). All three are playing for their lives. And only one of them needs to emerge to put in significant minutes. We are no longer an obviously tanking org. (which does effect play). We will be expected to win. That changes work habits and effort within games. We have real, experienced, pass first, point guards feeding these guys. And we have a team chockful of mentors. There are actual reasons to believe that one (or two) of those guys do better, or more consistently, than previously.

As far as Harrington, he bitched about them not wanting to win. He bitched about not being on a contender. He thought they lied to him, and confronted them about it. They cut him. And as soon as they did, every single sportswriter speculated that he would go to a contender and make a great addition as first man off the bench.

I'm the last person to overhype our players. My history has not been to do so, in fact, it's usually the opposite (see my history with this board over Blatche). And no this board, lately, usually does not overhype players. Again, the opposite. People like to bemoan every move EG makes. As I said with Price, people whined about getting him, and then whined about getting rid of him. Someone has to point out when that lamenting is unwarranted. This offseason, IMO, it is.

Ok, you make yourself and your POV clear. There's no point in debating the above stuff any longer.

Btw, I think that if healthy we are a shoe-in to be a playoff team; I think we are likely an above .500 team. So I'm not downplaying our improvement. Does that mean Ernie's done a good job? No, it's obvious he hasn't done a good job. But he did get lucky in the lottery a couple of times, and he did make a good choice in Beal.

My biggest worries are the health and level of play of Nene -- he wasn't good last year, but he was also not really ready physically -- and whether Okafor can sustain performance levels. As to whether Singleton, Vesely and/or Seraphin will step up, what I really want is for them not to play much!

The 3250 minutes they combined to play cost us mightily. Another ineffective 2550 minutes were logged by guys no longer here (crawford, mack, livingston, barron, martin, pargo...). Had health (and other factors) enabled us to distribute those minutes to Booker, Wall, Nene, Beal, Okafor, Ariza, Temple, Price and Webster -- we'd have been likely to win something like 47 games and maybe more.

Now, that's unrealistic, because we were never going to play only 9 guys over the whole year. But it does point to the fact that the best moves of this off-season were re-signing Temple, letting Martin go, and the fact that the rest of the scrubs are now history and not part of the present-day Wizards.

I think most of the worst of the combined minutes of Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin also came when John Wall was out, and while Crawford was taking most of the shots. I don't foresee any scenario where Vesely or Seraphin are paired with bad G play.

I think this team is going to be better constructed to withstand injuries. I wish they had drafted Olynyk instead of Porter. I wish they had saved enough money to sign DeJuan Blair. They really would be better for sure had they have done so.

Injuries to Wall or Nene definitely will destroy my optimistic prediction; but I have hope that the team is going to be a perfect storm of good things this season.

I don't think Ernie should stay, but I'm not going to let that stop me from admitting that overall, Ernie had a good 2012. Veterans brought in have certainly helped much more than I thought they would. Whatever happens with Okafor and Ariza will be significant; but for now, they fit in on a winning team IMO.

[barelyawake]

CCJ and PayIt, of course I agree with both of your last posts. And I've said so in different words through this thread. My line-ups had Ves in one and Serphin in maybe three (out of fifteen or so). I said to Dat that we will have players playing different minutes at different positions -- meaning Webster and Booker playing more prominent roles instead of scrubs (again, as my line-ups indicated). I merely think the additions of Harrington, Maynor and Porter will help in that process. I think they will be respectable bench players for a playoff team -- which is a radical change from what we are used to. And if Serphin or Ves suck, they will sit because we have other options. I merely speculate that, because of the factors I listed, there is a chance we get a decent 10 mins a game out of one of them.

We actually agree on most of this. We are arguing over the margins.

And I think, given our current make-up and for not blowing our cap (which I consider the best offseason move), Harrington and Maynor were good acquisitions (as was re-signing Webster). And I'm very glad that Wall has come to use his influence to attract players to our team. I still worry that Noel (or trading the pick) was the best option. But, outside of that, I think we have had a very successful offseason -- both from EG and the players themselves.

Btw, if Nene goes down, we will certainly more actively trade Ariza etc for a longterm replacement (though, in truth, part of me wouldn't mind another year of tanking in a historic draft, however, I'm certain EG will do everything in his power to ensure this doesn't happen). We have options. And the fact that we have options was part of the plan.

[payitforward]

...I merely think the additions of Harrington, Maynor and Porter will help in that process. I think they will be respectable bench players for a playoff team -- which is a radical change from what we are used to. And if Serphin or Ves suck, they will sit because we have other options. I merely speculate that, because of the factors I listed, there is a chance we get a decent 10 mins a game out of one of them.

We actually agree on most of this. We are arguing over the margins.

And I think, given our current make-up and for not blowing our cap (which I consider the best offseason move), Harrington and Maynor were good acquisitions (as was re-signing Webster). And I'm very glad that Wall has come to use his influence to attract players to our team. I still worry that Noel (or trading the pick) was the best option. But, outside of that, I think we have had a very successful offseason -- both from EG and the players themselves.

Btw, if Nene goes down, we will certainly more actively trade Ariza etc for a longterm replacement (though, in truth, part of me wouldn't mind another year of tanking in a historic draft, however, I'm certain EG will do everything in his power to ensure this doesn't happen). We have options. And the fact that we have options was part of the plan.

Yes, we're just arguing the margins -- but keep in mind that's where difference happens! On the season, what was our average margin of difference in points from our opponents.

I can't see how Maynor is an improvement over Price, but whether he is or isn't the difference between them is small. Harrington, even without playing especially well, can help a lot if he keeps Singleton and Seraphin on the bench. As to Porter, we all hope he's good right away -- but that's what it is, hope. He's still a kid.

As to not blowing our cap, I think the biggest objections here were a) maybe paying Webster a little too much, and b) certainly over-paying for Maynor (signed on day 1 of FAgency when there's no reason to think there was much of a market for him and there were certainly alternatives). So, no, we didn't blow our cap, but only Harrington at vet minimum (partly paid by the league) was a bargain. Not to mention frustration that we didn't sign another big (DeJuan Blair in particular -- he's also playing for vet minimum this year) when it's obvious what a problem we have getting 96 effective minutes at the 4/5.

Meaning I don't feel as confident as you that "we have options" or that we'll have as much cap room as you think -- and I certainly don't agree that Ernie gets credit for a terrific "plan". He gets credit for being lucky in the lottery, however!

[barelyawake]

Yes, we're arguing the margins -- but keep in mind that's where difference happens! On the season, what was our average margin of difference in points from our opponents

The rest of your post I've addressed here or in other threads. But, the above sentence I have issue with. This is why some people get upset about stat-usage. On the season, we had a totally different bench and had our main, three players together for all of twenty-two games. Why would you garner anything from last season's season totals when we are going to hopefully have an entirely different, healthy line-up as opposed to 73.2% of last year? Can you see why one would question when someone who says that stats "show everything" uses stats in such a manner?