Official Speculation Thread Pt.LXII

[NickAnderson]

I don't think anyone said harkless was a better player then Tobais

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[Javanar]

Tobias is more important and the more talented between the two. Why is this is so hard to understand?

We need both of them... I do not think it is a good idea to compare them this early. In this way you are raising expectations for one of them and trashing the other one... Not a good condition for young players, IMO.

*throws tomatoes* Booooooooooooo.....

Honk!!!! What did I do? Did I use an improper word? I am not a native english speaker.

[Neon1]

We need both of them... I do not think it is a good idea to compare them this early. In this way you are raising expectations for one of them and trashing the other one... Not a good condition for young players, IMO.

*throws tomatoes* Booooooooooooo.....

Honk!!!! What did I do? Did I use an improper word? I am not a native english speaker.

Just messing with you for trying to bring the peace

[PeePee la Fritz]

I don't understand how this Harris vs Harkless comparison is even a debate. Right now, Harris is better then Harkless. It's not a debatable issue, it's a fact. If you have to pick one to start at sf you pick Harris. End of discussion and end of pointless debate

[OrlandO]

I know it's still early, but through 6 games we're leading the league in rebounding, 2nd in opposing FG%, 3rd in opposing 3pt%, and 11th in points allowed. We don't even have Harris/Davis back yet. This team is too good defensively. We're also 13th in points per game and 19th in assists. Henny is going to have to trade his vets soon if he wants to tank.

Fun gif of the day - O'quinn avoiding ball because of new delay of game rule:

[flying_mollusk]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

[rcklsscognition]

Why don't you guys wait until the end of the season to make a more realistic comparison of Harkless and Tobes?

I touched on this yesterday. It's always important to do your best to analyze present and future potential of your players. You never know when a trade will pop up and you have minutes or hours to decide if you move a guy. I think Harkless is a guy that at this point may or may not really improve, but being so young, I think he has the trade potential, as in GMs might want him as part of a trade based on his age. I think we can make a fair guess at Harkless' potential season in another week or two and then after a month, be quite accurate with his production potential for the year. By December, we should have a big enough sample size to fairly accurately predict his career average.

[eyriq]

I like Harkless a lot. He moves well off the ball and this year his on-ball movement looks much improved, as is his shooting. The big red flag for me is his lack of assists. I'd love for him to transition to the 2 guard but if he doesn't create for others, at all, I don't see much hope for him starting.

[Orlwillbeback]

I like Harkless a lot. He moves well off the ball and this year his on-ball movement looks much improved, as is his shooting. The big red flag for me is his lack of assists. I'd love for him to transition to the 2 guard but if he doesn't create for others, at all, I don't see much hope for him starting.

he starts now

[The Real Dalic]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

[eyriq]

I like Harkless a lot. He moves well off the ball and this year his on-ball movement looks much improved, as is his shooting. The big red flag for me is his lack of assists. I'd love for him to transition to the 2 guard but if he doesn't create for others, at all, I don't see much hope for him starting.

he starts now

He is a starter on a team that last year lost 62 games by an average of 12 points per loss(on the flip side they won their 20 games by an average of 9 ppw). Hardly a note on his resume that indicates he is a starter in this league, let alone a starter at the 2 guard position. So considering my analysis is about a rebuilding Magic team that will hopefully contend his starting now doesn't mean I should have much hope of him starting then, imo.

[KillMonger]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Well that's when things get a little tricky, you want to keep him until we're ready for the big leagues. It's all a matter of when really, when will we be ready? in 2 more seasons? 3? Afflack is like 28 now by the time we legit contenders he could be 30-31. On the flipside though Afflack's game was always below the rim anyway so maybe his skills won't diminish as much. I think the guys that want to trade Afflack asap is the guys who wouldn't want a 30+ year old Afflalo on the roster i assume.

[The Real Dalic]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Well that's when things get a little tricky, you want to keep him until we're ready for the big leagues. It's all a matter of when really, when will we be ready? in 2 more seasons? 3? Afflack is like 28 now by the time we legit contenders he could be 30-31. On the flipside though Afflack's game was always below the rim anyway so maybe his skills won't diminish as much. I think the guys that want to trade Afflack asap is the guys who wouldn't want a 30+ year old Afflalo on the roster i assume.

True. But Battier is far older than Afflalo and made some of the biggest shots for Miami in the playoffs 2 years ago. Same with Ray Allen. Also, PJ Brown for the Celtics a few years back.

My point is someone like Afflalo is almost irreplaceable for a championship contender.

[NEM]

This whole moe/Tobias talk had me wondering about numbers. So I looked up moe's numbers this year, and it looks like he had an outlier game (vs New Orleans) which is helping him with his less than stellar numbers... Basically, his numbers without that game, suggest that he has actually regressed from last year...

Per game:
27 mpg
7 ppg
2.8 rpg
0.7 apg
1.0 spg
44.4% fg (16/36 or 2.7/6.0 per game)
50% 3s (4/8 or 0.7/1.3 per game)
50% ft (6/12 or 1/2 per game)

He seems to be very inactive when he's out there. He had a good game in which Vaughn probably lit a fire under his ass after that showing in Minnesota. But every game before and after that New Orleans game, moe has been Casper... And it worries me because he is not skilled enough to be able to coast. He has to play hard to get opportunities to score because he can't create them for himself, and he's not doing it...

Edit: his per 36 from those games:

9.3 point
3.7 rebounds
0.9 assists

But he will take moe over Tobias any day smh

[MagicStarwipe]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Because you don't want young guys coming in and constantly deferring to Afflalo. Our young guys are too often spectators while Afflalo attempts to take over. Guys like Oladipo, Harris and Vuc should be taking on more responsibility. When Afflalo is on the floor it's like no matter who else is out there with him, it seems like everyone on the court feels the offense has to be run through him 90% of the time. It's because he has that alpha personality and demands the ball and also because he is not fully trusting of the young guys on the team.

[The Real Dalic]

This whole moe/Tobias talk had me wondering about numbers. So I looked up moe's numbers this year, and it looks like he had an outlier game (vs New Orleans) which is helping him with his less than stellar numbers... Basically, his numbers without that game, suggest that he has actually regressed from last year...

Per game:
27 mpg
7 ppg
2.8 rpg
0.7 apg
1.0 spg
44.4% fg (16/36 or 2.7/6.0 per game)
50% 3s (4/8 or 0.7/1.3 per game)
50% ft (6/12 or 1/2 per game)

He seems to be very inactive when he's out there. He had a good game in which Vaughn probably lit a fire under his ass after that showing in Minnesota. But every game before and after that New Orleans game, moe has been Casper... And it worries me because he is not skilled enough to be able to coast. He has to play hard to get opportunities to score because he can't create them for himself, and he's not doing it...

Edit: his per 36 from those games:

9.3 point
3.7 rebounds
0.9 assists

But he will take moe over Tobias any day smh

When did Vaughn say he would take Moe over Tobias? Unless you're talking about a poster?

[Viper1500]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

I'm with you

I am guilty of wanting to tank, but you don't just trade away talent. He's the type of player who brings much more value to this team than anything we'd trade him for

[rcklsscognition]

His PER 36 is not looking too good, I agree. I've said for ages 14/6/3 is his peak, he's likely a 12/6/2 career guy. But that might fit on a team of a certain makeup.

I grabbed the OffRtg and DefRtg for this season thus far for most of our guys:

This is Off/Def, amount of points per 100 possession scored when this player in on the court, and the amount of points the defense scores while this player is on the court.

Andrew Nicholson- 103.6 92.5
Afflalo- 100.2 98.3
Moore- 99.3 89.5
Nelson- 101.7 96.6
Maxiell- 93.9 103.3
Harkless- 94.9 97.8
Vucevic- 97.9 96.7
KOQ- 99.2 85.4
Oladipo- 97.4 91.6

I come away mostly impressed by Nicholson, Moore, Oladipo, and KOQ. Nicholson has played minutes against the other starting unit since after the Pacers' game. Moore gets minutes against starters and backups as does Afflalo. KOQ I think is getting a great DefRtg mostly from playing against the other team's 2nd unit, but still, impressive.

This looks to me like Nicholson and Moore are playing above average defense for our team, O'Quinn and Oladipo are slightly above average.

Look at the starters: Harkless 97.8, Vuc 96.7, Afflalo 98.3, Nelson 96.6, all tightly wrapped around each other since they play a lot together. WTF is up with Maxiell? 103.3! Nicholson plays with half starters and half bench, his rating is right in the middle because of that.

On offense:

Nicholson is getting buckets. Jameer is running a good offense, Afflalo has been hitting shots, and Kyle O'Quinn is helping ball movement and opening up shots with his screens and passing and riding Nicholson's hot hand to a good rating. Maxiell and Harkless are lifeless and not really doing anything to help others.

[The Real Dalic]

Afflalo really solidifying his trade value. 19ppg, 45% shooting and hitting threes at a huge clip. Also on a solid contract. Wonder if we can get a mid-level 2014 1st rounder for him if he keeps this up.

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Because you don't want young guys coming in and constantly deferring to Afflalo. Our young guys are too often spectators while Afflalo attempts to take over. Guys like Oladipo, Harris and Vuc should be taking on more responsibility. When Afflalo is on the floor it's like no matter who else is out there with him, it seems like everyone on the court feels the offense has to be run through him 90% of the time. It's because he has that alpha personality and demands the ball and also because he is not fully trusting of the young guys on the team.

I disagree. Afflalo will back off once this team starts competing. When we can make him a 4th or 5th option.

Besides, I think if you're going to blame someone for Afflalo's high volume shooting, it should be Vaughn. He's the one that ultimately makes that decision.

[Javanar]

Why don't you guys wait until the end of the season to make a more realistic comparison of Harkless and Tobes?

I touched on this yesterday. It's always important to do your best to analyze present and future potential of your players. You never know when a trade will pop up and you have minutes or hours to decide if you move a guy. I think Harkless is a guy that at this point may or may not really improve, but being so young, I think he has the trade potential, as in GMs might want him as part of a trade based on his age. I think we can make a fair guess at Harkless' potential season in another week or two and then after a month, be quite accurate with his production potential for the year. By December, we should have a big enough sample size to fairly accurately predict his career average.

Yeah, I agree, it is important to analyze potential of players. But players evolve through the time. For example I remember Hedo. When he was drafted by Sacramento, in his rookie year, he was a very good defender and that was why Rick Adelman put him into the rotations, he was rarely touching and shooting the ball. Then he worked with Peja, and improved his shooting. Then he was traded to SA, at some point Popovich tried to use him as a stretch 4, but it did not work because of a simple fact : he can not jump... Then Magic got him, he started to make assists and nail 3's, but he was not a good defender anymore...

If Harkless manages to improve his shooting he can be a very good NBA player. As I know that it is not common among NBA players to dramatically improve shooting abilities. But Harkless has already showed that he can improve. Give him time.