Official Speculation Thread Pt.LXII

[flying_mollusk]

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Because you don't want young guys coming in and constantly deferring to Afflalo. Our young guys are too often spectators while Afflalo attempts to take over. Guys like Oladipo, Harris and Vuc should be taking on more responsibility. When Afflalo is on the floor it's like no matter who else is out there with him, it seems like everyone on the court feels the offense has to be run through him 90% of the time. It's because he has that alpha personality and demands the ball and also because he is not fully trusting of the young guys on the team.

I disagree. Afflalo will back off once this team starts competing. When we can make him a 4th or 5th option.

Besides, I think if you're going to blame someone for Afflalo's high volume shooting, it should be Vaughn. He's the one that ultimately makes that decision.

The age-decline is one thing, but the more important issue is playing time and asset accumulation. Basically its an issue of opportunity cost.

At some point Oladipo will be a regular starter, so will Harris, and so will Vuc. In addition, the the best talent coming out of this draft are all forwards. What value does Afflalo provide US for the next 2.5 years? He reduces our odds of a high draft pick this year and takes away playing time. We arent going to win a title this year or next, so his positive value is limited, while his negative value is higher.

Btw, Im not saying a guy like Afflalo is not extremely important to a title caliber team. Im saying he isnt important to a developing team right now. I have no problem with having a vet-guy like Battier on this team when we enter contention level play. But that can be acquired in free agency.

Look at the follow two hypos-

1. Trade Afflalo, get 1st round pick, draft Wiggins or Parker or Randle and draft someone else with Afflalo pick. Then in summer, sign Shane Battier/Afflalo type vet to act as 4th option glue guy. Hell, Luol Deng is a free agent. Bring him in.

2. Keep Afflalo, limit playing time of other guys, dont make playoffs or lose to Heat in 1st round, draft non-star lower level 1st rounder and then have to decide what to do with Afflalo in 2 years when he is a free agent.

Do you see the opportunity cost there? Can you justify why keeping Afflalo is that much more important?

[Tayswagzzz]

Could we be looking at the possibility of acquiring Shumpert? Think he'd be a good fit.

[omagicdaily]

Very well said, FlyingMollusk.

Also remember in the asset accumulation mode the Magic are in, Afflalo will have some value in the trade market. Like someone previously said, championship teams need a player like Afflalo to win. So when February comes around, he is going to have a lot of value. Particularly if he continues to play well. His contract is a minor hindrance at the moment to making that trade happen. But a team might be willing to take that risk.

At some point, the Magic are going to want to get playing time for Victor Oladipo, Maurice Harkless and Tobias Harris. With Afflalo, one of those guys has to go to the bench. There are going to be some interesting rotation decisions coming up.

[NEM]

I'd definitely trade for shump, and I know Rob might be since he was reportedly talking to ny about a jj-shump swap last year. Him and dipo would be disgusting on d. Wonder what we could give up for him... Afflalo makes sense but would be overpaying for shump. Give me a future first and it's done

[woosah]

I disagree. Afflalo will back off once this team starts competing. When we can make him a 4th or 5th option.

Besides, I think if you're going to blame someone for Afflalo's high volume shooting, it should be Vaughn. He's the one that ultimately makes that decision.

I agree with this, although I think he will want to be more involved than 4th or 5th but he doesn't demand to be the guy. He is NOT an alpha guy. If you watched him at all for any time that notion should have made you laugh.

I also agree with Dalic that he doesn't necessarily need to be traded, and think if he doesn't go by this trade deadline, then he is here for the long haul.

I get what everyone is saying but I don't see how the pro-tank side doesn't acknowledge the mental part of the game that can be affected by trading away all vets and letting the young grow together. That's the blind leading the blind really. I see the value in being the worst team to making a jump to the playoffs in one year mentally. I see the value in losing in the first round if you get the experience and it puts a hunger in you to improve to the second round or further the next year. I mean, look at the hunger they all had to improve this off-season. That was in part to losing so much and NOT wanting to keep doing that. I also see that the tankers just don't see the potential in what we already have and the others seem to see it more.

[cedric76]

What r the odds that a late 1st turn into a player better than AA?



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[Neon1]

What r the odds that a late 1st turn into a player better than AA?



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Slim as hell to none. People really need to start realizing this.

[tranjSAIC]

What r the odds that a late 1st turn into a player better than AA?



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Slim as hell to none. People really need to start realizing this.

That isn't the question you should be asking though. Afflalo would be good for us if we were closer to contending, but we are NOT.

[tranjSAIC]

I see the value in losing in the first round if you get the experience and it puts a hunger in you to improve to the second round or further the next year.

You're correct there is value in making progression in the playoffs, however you have to be realistic about your team. If we were like a young OKC team getting bounced in the 1st round that is fine, they are a young team with all the pieces in place to continually improve.

I have a problem just going for the 8th seed if we don't have the horses yet for the race. I sure as hell don't want to end up a middle of the pack team.

[MellowRose]

I hate AA.

[Smooth_E]

Why would you wanna trade Afflalo? He's someone you'd like to have when we start competing for championships. He can be just as good as Battier for the Heat or Pietrus for us not that long ago.

We should try to keep as many assets as possible unless someone offers us an upgrade or a great pick.

Well that's when things get a little tricky, you want to keep him until we're ready for the big leagues. It's all a matter of when really, when will we be ready? in 2 more seasons? 3? Afflack is like 28 now by the time we legit contenders he could be 30-31. On the flipside though Afflack's game was always below the rim anyway so maybe his skills won't diminish as much. I think the guys that want to trade Afflack asap is the guys who wouldn't want a 30+ year old Afflalo on the roster i assume.

True. But Battier is far older than Afflalo and made some of the biggest shots for Miami in the playoffs 2 years ago. Same with Ray Allen. Also, PJ Brown for the Celtics a few years back.

My point is someone like Afflalo is almost irreplaceable for a [size=200]championship contende[/size]r.

And that is something that we are NOT. I dont understand why guys like you think we're going to be good sometime soon? I'm not saying that you've said that, but you're clearly suggesting it somehow by defending his stay here and not considering trading him for assets. By him being here, VO's development through playing time experience is being spoiled in a sense because Afflalo is playing so many minutes.

Bottom line is we are NOT winning a championship this year, next year and probably not the next. Afflalo's work is done here by the TDL. Just my opinion.

[Smooth_E]

What r the odds that a late 1st turn into a player better than AA?



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Slim as hell to none. People really need to start realizing this.

That may be true but his contract (although reasonable in size for his output) can be moved for a rookie scale contract that would be more valuable to this particular team in the long run. Not to mention that his stock right now could even be paired with Jameer (another reasonable contract yet much bigger than a rookie scale) to reduce the cap even more. Just saying..

[woosah]

I see the value in losing in the first round if you get the experience and it puts a hunger in you to improve to the second round or further the next year.

You're correct there is value in making progression in the playoffs, however you have to be realistic about your team. If we were like a young OKC team getting bounced in the 1st round that is fine, they are a young team with all the pieces in place to continually improve.

I have a problem just going for the 8th seed if we don't have the horses yet for the race. I sure as hell don't want to end up a middle of the pack team.

That's why I made the comment that some have more confidence in what we have now vs what is in the draft. We don't know if we don't have the horses in the race. You have to go through the middle to get to the top, and what guarantees that we will be middle of the pack FOREVER? What guarantees that any of these prospects (which i feel are hyped) will be better than Harris/Vuc? Nothing. Yes, adding one of those guys to what we have could be great, but it could also be like getting Darko when we had Dwight...blah. Yes, it could NOT work out too.

San Antonio earned a rep of getting these hidden gems and I can see us being that type of team with our current FO. So i trust them more than many and that is why I can say what i am saying. I don't fault anyone for wanting to get the top 5 guys, but i just don't feel that it's everything and is going to make our team. That person still will need to learn to win. That guy will still want to play with other good players and i feel would progress quicker if he does play with established players. I don't want it to be like Kyrie who is so friggin talented and that team STILL don't know what the heck they are doing. ugh.

[woosah]

And that is something that we are NOT. I dont understand why guys like you think we're going to be good sometime soon? I'm not saying that you've said that, but you're clearly suggesting it somehow by defending his stay here and not considering trading him for assets. By him being here, VO's development through playing time experience is being spoiled in a sense because Afflalo is playing so many minutes.

Bottom line is we are NOT winning a championship this year, next year and probably not the next. Afflalo's work is done here by the TDL. Just my opinion.

Can you break that down for me? How is Dipo not going to develop? He played what, 30ish games last year in college and this year should play 82. How will he not develop? He is playing with the starters. He is 21. How will he NOT develop? No you just want to see him most, but when he is stinking it up it's not enjoyable to watch. He will come along and get more minutes as the season goes. With his work ethic, I'm not worried about Dipo.

You are right, we can trade AA for assets. But for ASSETS, not just any ole thing for the sake of trade. We do not NEED to trade his contract. That's fan talk.

And i know you also said this:

That may be true but his contract (although reasonable in size for his output) can be moved for a rookie scale contract that would be more valuable to this particular team in the long run.

But with the cap floor we have to pay someone and can't have all rookie contracts, so again it's not a need.

[darthmerrick]

I say we trade Afflalo if we can get a first or cap relief for him. He's been the best player on the team this year, but he's still not an allstar elite talent. To win championships you need superstars. Sell high on the guy and move him now. Addition by subtraction.

Moving him gives Oladipo, Harris, Harkless more time to develop. We'll evaluate what we have and get rid of the piece that doesn't fit. Additionally should we lose and get more ping pong balls...even better.

With all of our assets. Two first rounders (three potentially if we move Afflalo to a contender). We could use those late to mid round picks plus either of Harkless, Harris to move up in the lottery and get two potential superstars to team with Vucevic and Oladipo.

You use the cap space in 2014 to sign veterans. Maxiell is one piece, we need a couple more bargain fighters to teach our young core to grind and win.

With how poorly the Thunder have done in the draft since Hennigan left, I'm beginning to think we stole the brains of their organization. Magic should be a sustained contender by 2016, 2017. With a little ping pong help we might shortcut our way to contention a year or two early.

[cedric76]

I hate AA.

Damn, I hate the tanking fans

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[KillMonger]

I say we trade Afflalo if we can get a first or cap relief for him. He's been the best player on the team this year, but he's still not an allstar elite talent. To win championships you need superstars. Sell high on the guy and move him now. Addition by subtraction.

Moving him gives Oladipo, Harris, Harkless more time to develop. We'll evaluate what we have and get rid of the piece that doesn't fit. Additionally should we lose and get more ping pong balls...even better.

With all of our assets. Two first rounders (three potentially if we move Afflalo to a contender). We could use those late to mid round picks plus either of Harkless, Harris to move up in the lottery and get two potential superstars to team with Vucevic and Oladipo.

You use the cap space in 2014 to sign veterans. Maxiell is one piece, we need a couple more bargain fighters to teach our young core to grind and win.

With how poorly the Thunder have done in the draft since Hennigan left, I'm beginning to think we stole the brains of their organization. Magic should be a sustained contender by 2016, 2017. With a little ping pong help we might shortcut our way to contention a year or two early.

not necessarily, they help in a big way but we don't NEED a superstar to win a championship. We need a good overall team, Look at Lebron when he was in cleveland. Look at Melo in New York, look at KD and Westbrook and look at Dwight. All arguably Superstars and sans Lebron all without rings, A superstar by himself can probably get you to the finals but you need a good support team to win it all imo.

Just got to wait and see how the season pans out, including the NCAA season. Finding out who's entering the draft and who is staying in college another year will be important, because honestly i think if Smart came out this year he would be our pick and not Oladipo imho. Anything can happen, just got to wait and see how things shake out, an early indication of where we are going will be what we decide to do at the Deadline.

[NEM]

I take that back. I wouldnt trade AA for shump and a first. Maybe I'd trade bbd but that's about it. I think we undervalue AA a lot on here. I know I'm guilty of it. I think last year he tried to do a lot more than he can handle and it hurt his numbers. With nik's improved offensive game, the addition if dipo and Harris, and the fact that Nicholson can play more minutes because of his improved defense, AA hasn't had to shoulder all of the offense and we are seeing a much more comfortable afflalo. He's actually making me like him, and I wouldn't mind keeping him since 1) he isn't in anyone's way, and 2) we don't have anyone even close to being as good as him, let alone better than him at the 2... I wanna see a lineup of dipo/afflalo/Harris/Nicholson/Vucevic at some point this year.

[Orlwillbeback]

Hark's per game averages suck because his usage has actually dropped from 14.5 to 13.5 this year.

His ts% has gone up from 50 to 56% this year.

I want the vets off the team so the youngins can go out there and learn, in extended minutes.

[rcklsscognition]

Why don't you guys wait until the end of the season to make a more realistic comparison of Harkless and Tobes?

I touched on this yesterday. It's always important to do your best to analyze present and future potential of your players. You never know when a trade will pop up and you have minutes or hours to decide if you move a guy. I think Harkless is a guy that at this point may or may not really improve, but being so young, I think he has the trade potential, as in GMs might want him as part of a trade based on his age. I think we can make a fair guess at Harkless' potential season in another week or two and then after a month, be quite accurate with his production potential for the year. By December, we should have a big enough sample size to fairly accurately predict his career average.

Yeah, I agree, it is important to analyze potential of players. But players evolve through the time. For example I remember Hedo. When he was drafted by Sacramento, in his rookie year, he was a very good defender and that was why Rick Adelman put him into the rotations, he was rarely touching and shooting the ball. Then he worked with Peja, and improved his shooting. Then he was traded to SA, at some point Popovich tried to use him as a stretch 4, but it did not work because of a simple fact : he can not jump... Then Magic got him, he started to make assists and nail 3's, but he was not a good defender anymore...

If Harkless manages to improve his shooting he can be a very good NBA player. As I know that it is not common among NBA players to dramatically improve shooting abilities. But Harkless has already showed that he can improve. Give him time.

Let's look back at statistics though. A lot of things we talk about here are qualitative measures, like he played good defense, he wasn't a passer, etc. At the end of Turk's 2nd season, he had a PER of roughly 14.8PPG/6.6RPG/3APG/1SPG. His best season, which was a fluke, was 19.1PPG/5.6RPG/4.9APG/0.9APG. His career average was 15PPG/5.3RPG/3.9APG/1.3SPG.

In his 2nd season, at 3200 minutes into his career, he was already the player he would be for the rest of his career. He had a great season there, but the other decade + was all right around the same.

My point is that despite improvements Harkless may make, and different coaches that may mold his game, it is extremely likely he will be a 12PPG/6RPG/1APG/2SPG guy for the majority of his career. Likely, he will have a hot season or two, be at 14PPG, 6RPG, 2APG, 2SPG. He has played over 2,000 NBA minutes and shown a very distinct, consistent stat line despite shooting .500 from 3Pt.

It just appears to me like there are some folks here that are expecting him to make big improvements. Others like myself don't expect it. I don't really think he needs to improve that much. I think if he can be 12-14PPG with 6 boards and 2 steals he'd be a good second unit guy. The problem? He can't score 14PPG or get the rest of those stats in bench time. He'll be a 8PPG/4RPG/1SPG guy in bench minutes.