2014 Draft Thread (Early offseason panic edition).

[pancakes3]

The difference between Gordon and the other 3 is that the other three are locks to be gamers in the league. Gordon to me is more of a coinflip. I see Blake Griffin when the glass is half full. When half empty though, he looks closer to Derrick Williams. Not a knock on the kid but he's just not as sure a thing as the other players.

[Ruzious]

Embiid is further behind than Drummond was, both physically and skill wise, and Drummond was extremely raw. So raw that he fell far in a class where he was supposed to be a top 2 pick. Embiid's only played basketball for two years. Drummond also played as a freshman, even though he wasn't particularly good. I don't think Embiid is going to get a ton of run this year, especially once conference play starts.

Right now he's pure potential. Bill Self can do a lot of development with him, but it's going to take some time. I think he might stay for his sophomore or junior year. And I think that'd be great for him.

He got 16 points 13 boards last night - making all of his FG attempts, so considering he's supposedly played basketball for just 2 years, of course he's very raw - but I can't agree that his raw skills aren't up to Drummonds' - other than shot-blocking skills. Drummonds' offensive skills consisted of dunking and... dunking. He's got basically the same height and length Drummond had, and he's got a great frame to add muscle - he's just not pretty much fully developed as a teen - like Drummond was. What he doesn't have is Drummond's explosive leaping ability. Drummond came out after 1 year, and I think it's more likely than not that Embild will. Teams won't pass up on him because of the Drummond effect - they're not going to let another hugely talented 7 footer slide.

[Dat2U]

I think it's a 5 player draft based on what I know so far: Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Exum & Smart

Followed up by some intriguing prospects in Embiid (who I probably have taken #1 in last yr's draft, lol), Gordon, Selden, Vonleh, Saric & Robinson.

[stevemcqueen1]

Embiid is further behind than Drummond was, both physically and skill wise, and Drummond was extremely raw. So raw that he fell far in a class where he was supposed to be a top 2 pick. Embiid's only played basketball for two years. Drummond also played as a freshman, even though he wasn't particularly good. I don't think Embiid is going to get a ton of run this year, especially once conference play starts.

Right now he's pure potential. Bill Self can do a lot of development with him, but it's going to take some time. I think he might stay for his sophomore or junior year. And I think that'd be great for him.

He got 16 points 13 boards last night - making all of his FG attempts, so considering he's supposedly played basketball for just 2 years, of course he's very raw - but I can't agree that his raw skills aren't up to Drummonds' - other than shot-blocking skills. Drummonds' offensive skills consisted of dunking and... dunking. He's got basically the same height and length Drummond had, and he's got a great frame to add muscle - he's just not pretty much fully developed as a teen - like Drummond was. What he doesn't have is Drummond's explosive leaping ability. Drummond came out after 1 year, and I think it's more likely than not that Embild will. Teams won't pass up on him because of the Drummond effect - they're not going to let another hugely talented 7 footer slide.

Yeah he was impressive last night. He's got great feet and a tremendous motor and such imposing physical tools that his ceiling is probably second only to Wiggins. He can dominate off of raw tools like he did last night. I still think you're likely to see a decline in his role once we get into the meatier part of the schedule.

The thing about Drummond was that he had an NBA ready body and, if anything, had to lose weight. He was ready to overpower people on an NBA court day one. Embiid has a massive frame but he's still lean. Still going to take some time to grow into it.

I think he's a good leaper for his height, maybe not the pogo stick Drummond was. His length is such that he doesn't have to go very far to get to the rim. And his body control is really good, better than Drummond's IMO. He's an incredible athlete.

All that said, Drummond fell to 9 in a class that was strong, but not nearly as strong as this one. There are all kinds of players that are good enough for a GM to pass Embiid over this year.

I think his realistic ceiling this year is #4.

If he goes back to school and develops some legit offensive polish, like maybe that jumper, you're probably looking at the front runner to go #1 in 2015.

[stevemcqueen1]

The difference between Gordon and the other 3 is that the other three are locks to be gamers in the league. Gordon to me is more of a coinflip. I see Blake Griffin when the glass is half full. When half empty though, he looks closer to Derrick Williams. Not a knock on the kid but he's just not as sure a thing as the other players.

He's so athletic that his potential impact is similar to the other top guys in the class even if he's not as confident or skilled as they are.

You don't take him over those guys in a draft because he does carry more risk. But when they're gone, you're absolutely thrilled to get as big a talent as him as late as five or six or seven in a draft. That's awesome value for that range by the standards of a typical NBA draft.

The thing that stands out about this class is how unbelievably big and athletic all of the top guys are. Some of them are going to be among the very best athletes in the NBA next year. Even lesser prospects like the Harrison twins are huge and explosive for their position. The combine numbers are going to be crazy this year.

[stevemcqueen1]

Wiggins looks like a 6'8 version of Derrick Rose. His leaping ability and body control is absurd.

[pancakes3]

He's so athletic that his potential impact is similar to the other top guys in the class even if he's not as confident or skilled as they are.

You don't take him over those guys in a draft because he does carry more risk. But when they're gone, you're absolutely thrilled to get as big a talent as him as late as five or six or seven in a draft. That's awesome value for that range by the standards of a typical NBA draft.

No real quibble but the athletic/potential difference between Gordon and the other guys might be "similar" but it's a noticeable step lower. Even with the best case scenario it'll be Blake-Griffin type impact vs Rose/Dwight/Wade impact. Ostensibly all are all-stars but Parker/Wiggins/Randle/Smart are all-league MVP candidates.

Now I'm not knocking Gordon at all. He's an unbelievable talent and you can see where Williams and Griffin went in their respective classes. The idea that an equal talent is going to be on the wrong side of the top 5 looking in tells you how much better the 3 forwards and 2* guards are. This is going to be a draft class for the ages.

* I don't know how good Exum is going to be. He's looked good in the world games and whatever exhibitions he's played in but so did Patty Mills. I think he's similar to Gordon in that there's (slight) bust potential. Parker/Wiggins/Randle/Smart are, as I've said, locks.

[mhd]

I think CCJ's guy Doug McDermott will be an AWESOME pick in the late teens. He can play right away.

[rockymac52]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

[mhd]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

Ves has no offensive skill. He also has no confidence. Aaron Gordon has tons of confidence. I doubt we'd get a chance to draft him, even if we did keep our 1st rounder this year.

[rockymac52]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

I'm not saying Aaron Gordon will be Jan Vesely. I'm just saying if by the end of the season Gordon hasn't shown any skills in the half court offense, then it would be a poor decision for us to draft him if we somehow had the opportunity to.

Ves has no offensive skill. He also has no confidence. Aaron Gordon has tons of confidence. I doubt we'd get a chance to draft him, even if we did keep our 1st rounder this year.

[nate33]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

The caveat here is that Vesely can't dominate on athleticism alone because he's not a shot blocker and is too weak to rebound. You won't have that problem if you draft an uber athletic big man who can rebound and defend based on athleticism alone (like a rookie Howard, or Favors, or Drummond). He can have an impact right away on one end of the floor, and then you gamble that the rest of his game develops over time.

[mhd]

I don't think Smart belongs in the top 5 tier (Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Exum, Embeid). Embeid looks really good out there.

[thricethefun]

God this draft is amazing why does this have to be the year we get good?
Embiid looks like a future Hakeem out there. Jabari looks like Durant. Wiggins has so much potential it's scary. Randle looks like a future all-star.

[miller31time]

It's so incredibly Wizards that we suck every year except the one where we need to.

Which wouldn't be all that bad except, again incredibly Wizards, we aren't even that good. We're simply moderately, passably good without the ability to get into the upper-tier.

[dangermouse]

God this draft is amazing why does this have to be the year we get good?

We're good?

[thricethefun]

God this draft is amazing why does this have to be the year we get good?

We're good?

Sorry I meant good by Wizards standards which means not one of the 5 worst teams in the league.

[Ruzious]

Btw, Jabari Parker might be every bit as good as Melo was at Syracuse. He's supposedly not that good an athlete, but he got 6 blocks last game. He and Hood are absurdly good shooters and scorers - maybe on their way to being one of the all-time best scoring forward combos in college ball - for 1 year, anyway.

[noworriesinmd]

If we drafted top three this year, we'd be a contender for years.

However, I think the league is on a one way train to parity. There was a great sb nation article on the salary cap and luxury tax I encourage all to read

[Ruzious]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

A player who in some ways reminds me of Vesely is a Canadian named Kehm Birch - who plays for UNLV. He's very unskilled offensively - somehow, he's shooting 34.4% from the field and 82.6 from the line - that'll change through the season, as he's shot over 50% from the field his other 2 college seasons. He's maybe 6'9 225, but he's very long and athletic. He's averaging a startling 14.8 rebounds and 7.2 blocks per 40 minutes. He'll likely go around where Vesely should have gone - late 1st or early 2nd. But if he finds an offensive niche and he can bulk up, perhaps we have a Faried situation.